ADMIS News
COCOA
Cocoa prices have been able to lift clear of their Tuesday & Wednesday lows and are within striking distance of a third positive weekly result in a row. While near-term demand concerns continue to weigh on market sentiment, cocoa may be ready to begin another longer-term upside move. There are indications that high fuel prices and supply bottlenecks with fertilizers and pesticides will negatively impact West Africa’s mid-crop output.
COFFEE
Coffee prices remain on the defensive and are on-track for a lower close for the week. With the market still holding a sizable net spec long position, coffee may be vulnerable to additional long liquidation. The Brazilian currency posted a sizable daily decline for a third session in a row, and that put carryover pressure on the coffee market as that encourages Brazil’s producers to market their remaining near-term coffee supply.
COTTON
May cotton broke below its recent consolidation level yesterday and closed at its lowest level since March 24. Crude oil and the stock market were higher which should have supported the market, but the dollar was stronger, which was bearish, especially in the wake of a disappointing export sales report. For today’s USDA monthly supply/demand report, the average trade expectation for US 2021/22 cotton ending stocks is 3.54 million bales, with a range of expectations from 3.20-4.00 million. This would be up from 3.50 million in the March report.
SUGAR
The sugar market experienced an impressive upside breakout yesterday to trade to a new contract high. Technically, this leaves 19.98 and 20.69 as next upside swing targets for July sugar. With the market continuing to receive bullish supply news, sugar can extend further into new high ground. There are reports that India’s mills are facing a shortage of railroad cars to ship sugar to port facilities. This provided a boost to sugar prices, as that may restrict their exports over the next few months.
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