Written Commentary
Grains are mixed. SN is down 2 cents and near 8.44. CN is down 1 cent and near 3.18. WN is up 5 cents and near 5.15. US Stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
Soybean prices remain near the midpoint of a broad range between 8.00 and 9.00. Support is from hope that China will be a large buyer of US soybeans. So far China buying has been a few cargoes for crushers. They need to buy for reserves to push prices closer to resistance. Talk of higher US 2020 supplies offers resistance
Weekly soybean export sales are estimated near 500-1,000 mt old crop and 300-600 mt new crop. World vegoil prices continue to increase. USDA estimated 2020/21 stocks to fall 6 pct and consumption to increase 5 mmt to a record 185 mmt.
Corn futures remain in a 3.00-3.40 range. Drop in US ethanol demand and talk of higher US 2020 supplies limits gains. So far, US Midwest weather is favorable. East Midwest should dry over next few days. 2 week pattern is for warmer temps and showers every 3-4 days. Weekly US old crop corn sales are estimated near 500-1,000 mt and new crop 200-400 mt. USDA Cattle on feed is expected to show on feed 95 pct and placements near 77 pct. NOAA will be out today with the July-August climate forecast.
Some could see WN-CN spread continue to gain wheat over corn. Some link this to higher wheat prices due to higher Russia prices and lower corn due to higher US supplies. A few could see the spread test+3.00.
Wheat prices are higher from follow through buying from Wednesday. Higher wheat prices linked to drier West Europe weather and talk of lower Russia 2020 crop. Rain is forecasted for parts of US HRW areas. Kansas wheat tour estimated 2020 crop yield near 42.5 versus USDA 47.0.
Managed funds were net buyers of 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 4,000 Corn; net bought 3,000 Soybeans; net bought 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 230,000 Corn; net long 30,000 Soybeans; net short 18,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 1,000 Soyoil.
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