Export Sales Strong

COTTON

March Cotton had a big outside range down on Thursday and followed that with some additional selling overnight. The market broke below the 50-day moving average on Thursday after spending much of January above that line, and this apparently caused bulls to “throw in the towel.” The export sales report this morning came in very strong at 438,392 bales for the week ending January 15. This was up from 349,844 the previous week and was the strongest for the marketing year so far. So far in 2025/26 a strong sales number has been followed by three-four weeks of slow sale, so having two weeks in a row of high number may provide a boost to the market today.

SUGAR

March Sugar was near unchanged early Wednesday and inside the narrow range the market has staked out this month. Ample global supply continues to limit upside, but the market has been respecting the November lows as low prices have encouraged ideas of a switch to ethanol production, especially in Brazil. The UNICA reports have borne this out to some degree, with sugar’s share of the crush dropping precipitously, but it is late in the season and cane crush is winding down, so the effect on overall production is minimal. The CEO of the Brazilian sugarcane growers’ association Orplana said on Thursday they are seeing cane farmers cut back on investing in cane production due to low sugar prices and high costs, and he added that if prices remain poor, farmers will choose not to renew contracts with refining plants and potentially switch to other crops such as soybeans or corn.

COFFEE

March Coffee was higher early Friday, as the market is apparently not ready to break below the consolidation of the past four months. Brazil growing conditions point to a strong crop for 2026/27, and this is the “on-year” in the biennial production cycle for their arabica crop but it is still early enough in the season for conditions to change. Traders told Reuters that Colombian farmers being reluctant to sell due to a strong Colombian peso, which is cutting their returns in the local currency, and robusta traders in Vietnam said farmers are reluctant sellers due to low prices relative to last year. World Weather Inc. says coffee conditions Brazil will remain in good shape for much of the next two weeks. Some drying is likely from Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana into southwestern Minas Gerais and in most of Sao Paulo, and they which may need some timely rain in February.

COCOA

After a one-day respite, March Cocoa resumed its selloff early Friday falling to new contract lows. Prices have lost 33% of their value since January 8. The nearby contract has fallen to its lowest level since January 2024. The market has been pressured this week and last on lower than expected European fourth-quarter 2025 grind data, poor sales reports from chocolate manufacturers, and harvest pressure in Ivory Coast. Adding insult to injury was news that Chocolate maker Barry Callebaut reported a 9.9% drop in first-quarter (2025/26) sales volumes versus expectations for a 9.4% drop. High farmgate prices in Ivory Coast have encouraged farmer selling and may have also inspired some smuggling into the country from neighboring nations. There are reports of bottlenecks in ports. Sellers are complaining about internationals holding back on their purchases. World Weather Inc. said Thursday that West-Africa cocoa production areas of Ghana, Nigeria and Ivory Coast will see a more normal weather pattern for this time of year evolve in the coming week. This would mean only a few, infrequent coastal showers and warm temperatures. They also expect the Harmattan wind to continue lightly across the region and that temperatures will be warm, but not excessively hot over the next week.

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