Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are quietly mixed. US stocks are slightly higher. USD is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. US Midwest forecast is mostly dry with above normal temps. Brazil and Argentina are dry. Lest we never forget 9-11.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.30. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. SX held 10.25 support before USDA report. US Midwest remains dry with warmer temps. Next key input is USDA Sep 12 report. Trade est US 24/25 soybean carryout at 328 mil bu vs USDA 330. Trade est US 25/26 soybean carryout at 288 mil bu vs USDA 290. Trade est US crop at 4,271 mil bu vs USDA August 4,292. Soyoil futures were up word Senate may not cut in half numbers of SRE’s transferred from small refineries to large refineries. Argentina raised 24/25 soybean crop 1.5 mmt to 50 mmt and est 25/26 crop at 61.0 mmt. Trade est US soybean export sales at 400-1,600 mt vs 818 lw.
CORN
CZ is near 4.18. Farmers are expected to speed harvest before corn dries down like last year. Next key input is USDA Sep 12 report. Trade est US 24/25 corn carryout at 1,311 mil bu vs USDA 1,305. Trade est US 25/26 corn carryout at 2,011 mil bu vs USDA 2,117. Trade est US crop at 16,516 mil bu vs USDA August 16,742. Dalian corn futures were lower. Black Sea prices were lower. Global World supply is higher than last year. Trade est US corn export sales at 900-2,400 mt vs 2,117 lw. Weekly US ethanol production and stocks increased from ly. Margins remain positive. US gas demand was lower.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.15. WZ range 5.00-5.50. KWZ is near 5.06. MWZ is near 5.67. Wheat futures are lower on lower competitive exporter prices which could slow US sales. Next key input is USDA report. Trade est US 25/26 wheat carryout at 865 mil bu vs USDA August 869. Trade est World 25/26 wheat end stocks at 261.1 mmt vs 260.1 in August. Trade est US wheat export sales at 300-650 mt vs 313 last week. Last was first week where sales were below 500 mt.
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