Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Crude is higher. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. Fact Trump said he would not fire US Fed Chairman Powell and China final tariffs would be below 145 pct rallied stocks. Gold is lower on profit taking amidst softer tariff tone. IMF lowered World GDP to 2.8 pct vs 3.3 previous. Mexico .3 vs 1.4. US 1.8 vs 2.7. China 4.0 vs 4.6.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.53. Managed funds are short record soymeal futures. China Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. USDA estimated US soybean plantings at 8 pct vs 5 average. Some feel favorable US corn planting weather could increase final US corn acres and lower soybean. Trump talk of final China tariffs will be lower than 145 pct is helping SN. Fact China is buying Brazil soybeans is also helping SN.
CORN
CN is near 4.82. Dalian corn futures were higher on talk of drier NE China weather. South US and east rains could slow plantings there. USDA estimated US corn plantings at 12 pct vs 10 average. Last year, US farmers added 1.4 mil corn acres from March to June. This year, favorable US weather could also increase final corn acres. This could weigh on CZ. EU corn imports are 16.8 mmt or up 12 pct vs ly. EU corn exports are down 46 pct vs ly. One crop watch increased Brazil corn crop closer to 127 vs 119 ly.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.51. KWN is near 5.57. MWN is near 6.11. US south and east rains could stress US SRW crop. EU model has rains for dry US plains. Russia forecast is for scattered light rains. EU wheat exports are down 34 pct vs last year. Russia wheat exports could be closer to 37 mmt vs USDA 44 and 55.5 ly. USDA est US 2024/25 HRW end stocks at 382 mil bu vs 274 ly, SRW 116 vs 126, HRS 207 vs 190 , white wheat 70 vs 85 and Durum 45 vs 21. Total 846 vs 696 ly. This in currency volatility is widening Chicago and KC wheat futures spreads. MWK-MWN spread found support near -14.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
