Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Major stock index futures are lower.
The February Chicago Federal Reserve national activity index was 0.05 when -0.50 was expected.
The 9:00 central time February new home sales report is anticipated to show 675,000.
The 9:30 March Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey is estimated to be -10.5.
On Friday traders will be scrutinizing comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell for further clues on the central bank’s next policy steps.
The fundamentals are mostly bullish, while the technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is lower.
Spain’s industrial producer prices plunged by 8.2% year-on-year in February 2024, following a slightly revised 3.9% decline in January. This was the sharpest drop in producer prices since last September.
The monthly retail sales balance from the Confederation of British Industry in the U.K., which measures sales compared to the previous year, improved to +2 in March 2024, which is up from -7 in the previous month.
The Japanese yen is a little higher today but remains near a 32-year low despite Japan’s threats of intervention. Japanese monetary authorities warned the yen’s weakness does not match economic fundamentals.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic late Friday said he now projects only one interest rate cut of 25 basis points this year. Bostic had previously said that it would be appropriate for the Fed to lower rates twice in 2024.
Lisa Cook of the Federal Reserve will speak at 9:30.
The Treasury will auction two-year notes today.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 12% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the May 1 policy meeting, and there is an 88.0% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.
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