Feed Grains Backed Up, Soybeans Mixed

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Mostly lower trade across the Ag Space this AM with fresh news limited.  Feed grain have backed up while the soybean complex is mixed.  Energy prices are now lower in 2 sided trade.  WTI crude is down $1.25 a barrel at $94.25.  Spot RBOB is down $.01 with HO off $.02.  Tensions in the Middle East remain high with the Straits of Hormuz mostly closed despite the Prime Minister of Isreal Netanyahu stating Isreal would assist the US with “intel and other means” to open the narrow passage.  The US $$ is slightly higher while holding within yesterday’s range.  US equity markets are moderately lower.  Argentina to remain in a wetter than normal pattern over the next week, beneficial for late crop development.  Rains in Brazil the next 7 days to favor northern growing areas and the deep south in RGDS.  Dryer in the central and mid-South region.  Complete dryness across much of the US Midwest over the next week.  Drought conditions will expand in the SW plains with record warmth the next few days.  Above normal temperatures across the plains and WCB thru month end.  Normal temps for the central and ECB.  Better prospects for rain in the S. Plains by late month into early April.

Corn: 

Both May-26 and Dec-26 are down $.03 at $4.66 ¾ and $4.91 ½ respectively.  Look for May-26 to hold in a $4.40-$4.80 range with energy likely to drive any directional breakout.  US exports remain strong, up 30% YOY vs. the USDA forecast up 15%.  I suspect usage for ethanol production however at 5.60 bil. bu. is 25-50 mil. bu. too high.  We’ll have Mch 1^st stock and 2026 acreage est. early next week.  The BAGE placed Argentina corn harvest at 13% while holding production at 57 mmt, well above the USDA est. of 52 mmt.  90% of the crop is rated normal-excellent.  The USDA attaché forecasts China will import 8 mmt of corn in the 26/27 MY, same as the official USDA forecast for 25/26.  COF after the close is expected to show cattle at 99% of YA levels.

Soybeans: 

Beans are steady to $.02 better with May-26 at $11.70 up $.01 ½.  Nov-26 is $.01 higher at $11.47.  Inside trade for May-26 meal currently down $.30 at $332.20 while oil is up 44 points at 65.86.  Spot board crush margins are little changed overnight after surging another $.15 ½ bu. yesterday to a fresh 3 ½ year high at $2.82 ½ bu.  Bean oil PV slipped 49.6%.  Meal spreads have surged on a potential port strike in Brazil and strong domestic usage.  With US crush rates record high look for another 10-20 mil. bu. increase to the current USDA forecast of 2.575 bil. bu.  Exports are too high without additional Chinese purchases.  In the Jan/Feb period Chinese imports from the US were only 1.5 mmt, down 84% from YA as little of the 12 mmt booked in late 2025 had arrived.  Imports from Brazil in Jan/Feb at 6.56 mmt were up 83%.  The BAGE kept their Argentina production forecast unchanged at 48.5 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast of 48 mmt.  I suspect even higher energy prices and/or renewed buying from China, is needed for spot soybeans to trade back above $12.  If neither happens, look for prices to retest $11 this Spring.  Pres. Trump yesterday suggested his trip to Beijing has been delayed “about a month and a half.”  The USDA attache forecasts China will import 108 mmt of soybeans in the 26/27 MY, down from the official USDA forecast for 25/26 MY of 112 mmt.

Wheat: 

Prices range from $.06 to $.12 lower.  CGO May-26 is down $.10 at $5.98 while KC May-26 is down $.12 at $6.15 ½, both near session lows.  Big temperature swings and growing drought in the SW plains should provide underlying support.  The recent price surge has left US wheat less competitive in the global marketplace, which should work to cap prices below their recent highs.  Export sales are up 14% YOY vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%.  The BAGE held their Argentine production forecast at 27.8 mmt, in line with the USDA however well below the RGE at 29.5 mmt.

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