Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Coming off the 3 day President’s Day weekend feed grains are lower while the soybean complex is mixed. Global weather since Friday was pretty much as forecast. In SA widespread rains brought temporary relief to central and southern growing areas of Argentina. Rains in Brazil were most heavily concentrated in Parana. Scattered rains in the deep south in RGDS and along western Mato Grosso and MGDS. The US saw good rains stretch from the S. plains east across the Delta and S. Midwest and thru SE. Dry to the north with record warmth in several locations. Rains this week will favor the SE and Great Lakes region while above normal temperatures are expected to last into early March. Cooler temperatures this week in the N. plains with a return of snow. NOPA crush data at midday today with USDA Outlook Forum starting on Thursday. Markets will be sensitive to any indication of fresh Chinese buying. It would appear current price levels have a lot of bullish news built in with RVO/SRE announcement expected from the EPA next month followed by Pres. Trump’s visit to China in April. Spot crude is up $1.00 a barrel. The US $$ is moderately higher while US stock indices are lower.
Corn:
Mch-26 is down $.02 ¾ at $4.29. First support is at LW’s low of $4.25 ¼. Spot prices remain rangebound between $4.15-$4.40. AgRural reports Brazil’s 1st crop harvest has reached 22%, lagging the YA pace of 29%. 2nd crop plantings at 31% also trail YA pace of 36%. While Argentine FOB offers continue to run $.15-$.20 below US offers, Brazil remains largely absent as domestic consumption remains strong. It will likely be summer with the arrival of their 2nd crop before they become more active in the global marketplace.
Soybeans:
Mch-26 beans are down $.03 at $11.30. Mch-26 meal is down $3 at $306.20. Mch-26 oil is up 26 points at 57.34. Inside trade across the complex for the spot contracts. NOPA crush is expected to reach 218 mil. bu. in Jan-26, while down from 225 mil. in Dec-25, it would be well above the 200 mil. bu. from Jan-25. Estimates range from 211-226 mil. Oil stocks are expected to build to 1.71 bil. lbs. up from 1.64 bil. in Dec-25 and well above the 1.27 bil. from Jan-25. AgRural reports Brazilian harvest advanced only 5% LW to 21%, and now below the YA pace of 24%. Harvest in Mato Gross, their largest producing state, saw process hold at 51% still above their long term average of 43%. The 94k contracts of soybeans bought by MM’s in the week ended Tues. Feb. 10th was the largest 1 week total since May-24.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.03-$.09 lower overnight. CGO Mch-26 is down $.09 at $5.39 ¾. Next support is the 100 day MA at $5.30. KC Mch-26 is down $.05 at $5.38. MA support is near $5.27. also an inside trade. Late last week IKAR raised Russia’s 2026/27 wheat production forecast 3 mmt to 91 mmt vs. the USDA est. of 89.5 mmt. They also report Russia export price for wheat ended LW at $233/mt, up $2 from the previous week. Jordan passed on making any purchase in their recent 120k mt tender. Rains across US winter wheat areas appear to be more than offsetting Russian drone strikes across Ukraine’s Odesa region that inflicted serious damage to their power infrastructure.
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