Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold prices are facing strong headwinds as a rise in yields after better-than-expected weekly initial claims figures weighed on prices. Jobless claims came in well below expectations of 219,000 at 191,000. Also weighing on prices are solid gains in equity markets in Asia and Europe. Gold is likely to remain on the sidelines ahead of Friday’s September PCE figures as risk appetite improves on the day.
Gold finished Wednesday higher after ADP reported a net 32,000 drop in private payrolls in November, the third drop in four months, and one of the lowest readings since 2023. The data reinforced expectations that interest rates will come down in December. Markets are also expecting a dovish tilt from the Fed in the longer term as Kevin Hasset is expected to become the next head of the Fed when Powell’s term is over. At a White House event on Tuesday, President Trump dropped a major hint about the Fed chair role, saying that a “potential” future chairman of the Fed was in the room, while Hassett stood close by. Markets are still pricing just under a 90% chance that the Fed will lower rates next week.
Silver: Silver futures are down over 2% to $57.80.
Platinum: Platinum is 0.8% lower at $1,649.
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices headed lower as worries over tight supplies eased slightly. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME was down 0.7% at $11,410 earlier in the morning after touching a record high of $11,540 on Wednesday. LME data on Thursday showed a fresh 7,775 warrant cancellations in warehouses in South Korea following 50,725 tons of cancellations in Asia on Wednesday. Those cancellations bring available LME copper stocks to their lowest since July to under 100,000 tons. Wednesday’s cancellations had caught the market off-guard after price falls on Tuesday and added to various supportive factors including concern over tight supply outside the US as Glencore lowered its 2026 copper production guidance. Glencore lowered its 2026 copper production guidance to a range with a midpoint of 840,000 tons for 2026, down from 930,000 previously. The spread between the LME cash copper contract and the three-month forward has eased from $88 on Wednesday to around $66.
Markets also continue to assess the impact of new that top copper smelters in China will cut production by more than 10% in 2026 to counter overcapacity in the industry. Smelters in China have been facing negative processing fees due to extreme competion. The move follows comments by Chen Xuesen, Vice President of China’s Nonferrous Metal Industry association, who said last week that the state-backed association “firmly opposes any free and negative processing” of copper concentrate. However, skepticism in the markets remains has previous attempts to curb overcapacity in China have ultimately proved to be fruitless.
Zinc: Zinc shed 0.6% to $3,046.
Aluminum: Aluminum dipped 0.5% to $2,884.
Tin: Tin dropped 1.8% to $40,050.
Lead: Lead nudged up 0.2% to $2,002.
Nickel: Nickel added 0.3% to $14,920.
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