Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Managed fund managers are expected to adjust positions prior to year end. Stocks are higher. USD is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver and copper are higher. Bitcoin is higher. 6 days until the end. 2026 will bring question about global economy, trade wars, US Supreme Court decision on US tariffs and global tension. Russia bombed Ukraine Odessa port. Normal Brazil rains are expected. S 1/3 Argentina could remain dry. US cattle on feed report was friendly.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.64. USDA announced 134 mt US soybeans to China. Some estimate China has bought 8.0 mmt of US soybeans vs 12.0 expected. US Nov 27 US soybean export commit is near 21.8 mmt vs 35.9 ly. Trade est US 25/26 soybean carryout closer to 360 mil bu vs USDA 290 due to lower exports. Some look for USDA to increase US 2025 soybean yield slightly in January due to record pod count.
CORN
CH is near 4.46. CH was supported by rumors of China buying US corn. US, Brazil and now central EU farmers are reluctant sellers. Slowdown in Ukraine export pace, buyers waiting for SA crops and drop in Argentina exports tax is helping demand for Argentina corn. US corn export commit is near 44.3 mmt vs 34.1 ly. Destination buyers are paying $20 more than ly. Trade est US 25/26 corn carryout closer to 2,325 mil bu vs USDA 2,029 due to lower domestic use. Some look for USDA to drop US 2025 corn yield 2 bpa in January. Same group feels USDA needs to drop the yield 4 bpa to push prices above resistance.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.14. KWH is near 5.18. MWH is near 5.77. Matif futures are quiet as traders take holiday. US wheat export commit is 18.9 mmt vs 15.4 ly. Winter wheat futures remain under pressure due to higher World supply and slower import demand. Weaker La Nina could increase rains in US plains and Argentina.
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