Written Commentary
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 1 cent, HRW up 2; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans down 2, Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil up 5 points.For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 7 cents; Corn is down 9 cents; Soybeans down 9 cents.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 3 yuan, up 17 yuan in Corn, down 21 in Soymeal, up 64 in Soyoil, and unchanged in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 27 ringgit at 2,295 (basis August) on improved demand expectations.
U.S. Weather Forecast
A ridge of high pressure is still expected to build into the central U.S. Sunday through Jun. 2 which will lead to net drying in a large portion of the Corn Belt and in the Delta and Hard Red Winter Wheat Regions
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 28,000 Corn; net sold 3,000 Soybeans; net bought 2,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 2,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net even in SRW Wheat; net short 223,000 Corn; net long 13,000 Soybeans; net short 29,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 5,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 535 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,500; Corn up 2,400; Soybeans up 2,000 contracts; Soymeal down 820 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,900.
There were changes in registrations—(Rice down 15)—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 106; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS Wheat 488 contracts.
TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT SALES—
Tender Activity—Thailand passed on 227,000t feed wheat—
Asian grain buyers are ready to re-enter the market after a pause of about two months caused by the coronavirus lockdowns, seeking wheat from Black Sea suppliers; millers across the region, including the no. 2 global importer Indonesia, are looking for new-crop Black Sea wheat for July-August shipment; millers haven’t signed any contracts yet as they are just inquiring about prices
A global grains surplus is expected for the 2020/21 season, the International Grains Council said on Thursday, raising its production forecast while also cutting its consumption outlook.
raised its grains production forecast by 12 million tons to 2.230 billion tons while consumption was trimmed by 4 million tons to 2.218 billion
improved corn (maize) crop outlooks for the United States and China helped to trigger the upward revision to the global grain production forecast while the IGC said the consumption outlook was lowered “owing to the weaker outlook for the industrial sector”
world stocks of grain were forecast to rise by 13 million tons to 627 million, year-on-year, by the end of the 2020/21 season, the first increase in four years.
The IGC raised its forecast for global corn production in the 2020/21 season by 11 million tonnes to 1.169 billion tons with upward revisions for the U.S. (392.5 million versus 388.8 million) and China (261.0 million versus 256.9 million).
Global corn consumption was seen at 1.177 billion tons with global stocks seen declining by 9 million tons to 288 million tons, a fourth successive drop.
The council put 2020/21 world wheat production at 766 million tons, up from its previous projection of 764 million.
Wheat stocks were seen rising by 16 million tons to 290 million tons, more than offsetting the decline in corn.
The IGC put global soybean production in 2020/21 at 363 million tons, marginally below its previous projection of 364 million “with an upgrade for Brazil outweighed by reductions for minor producers.
The forecast remained, however, well above the prior season’s 336 million.
Saskatchewan crop report – Reuters News
Favourable weather in the province this week meant substantial seeding progress in all regions; eighty per cent of the crop is now seeded in Saskatchewan, slightly ahead of the five-year average of 78 per cent (2015-2019) for this time of year; crops have started to emerge in many areas of the province.
China Focus: Farmers see bumper summer grain harvest despite epidemic – Xinhua News Agency
Benefiting from agricultural equipment sharing platforms and demand management that creates a balance between supply and demand, Chinese farmers are introducing smarter and modern ideas to secure a harvest year despite COVID-19.
Global demand for Brazilian grains is growing as Argentina and Paraguay struggle with low water levels in a key river for agricultural shipments that is preventing ships from being fully loaded.
Argentine wheat planting for the 2020/21 season has advanced to 13.4% under dwindling soil moisture conditions, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its weekly crop report; the South American grains powerhouse is expected to harvest 21 million tons of wheat this year, according to the exchange, with total planting area projected at 6.8 million hectares.
Russia is expected to increase grain exports in the 2020/21 marketing season which starts on July 1, one of Moscow’s leading agriculture consultancies, SovEcon, said.
SovEcon expects the country’s exports to be the second largest in its history after shipments reached an all-time high in the 2017/18 season, when it harvested a record crop.
It sees Russia’s total 2020/2021 grain exports at 47.4 million tons, up 3.9 million tons from this season; of that, wheat exports are expected to reach 36.8 million tons, 3 million tons more than in 2019/2020.
Ukraine, a major exporter of soybeans, has agreed to its first soybeans imports in many years; such deals could be repeated in future if domestic output continues to shrink; the 20,000 tons of Brazilian soy is to arrive on three vessels, two of which have already departed, at Ukraine’s Sea of Azov’s Berdyansk port; the cargo was imported by Pology oils extraction plant.
Ukraine expects the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to approve a $5 billion loan package at a board meeting on June 5 and the first tranche of $1.9 billion to be disbursed the following day.
The European Commission lowered on Thursday its forecast for common wheat production in the European Union’s 27 countries in 2020/21 to 121.5 million tons from 125.8 million estimated a month ago.
—EU-27 exports of common wheat, or soft wheat, for the 2020/21 season that starts in July to 26.5 million tons from 28 million previously.
—the Commission raised slightly its forecast of EU-27 barley output in 2020/21 to 56.2 million tons from 56.1 million
—increased more sharply its EU-27 maize production outlook, to 71.4 million tons from 69.5 million.
French soft wheat crop ratings declined slightly last week to remain at their lowest since 2011 for the time of year, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed, as weather turned dry again.
—For the week to May 25, 56% of soft wheat was rated good or excellent against 57% the previous week, FranceAgriMer said.
—That was the lowest score for the period since 2011 when the good/excellent score was just 24% at the time of a severe spring drought.
—For grain maize, farmers had sown 97% of the expected crop area by May 25 compared with 93% the previous week; for emerged maize crops, 83% were rated good/excellent versus 86% for the prior week.
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