Global Ag News
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Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 5 cents, HRW up 4; HRS Wheat up 5, Corn is up 3 cents; Soybeans up 8, Soymeal up $3.00, and Soyoil up 25 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 6 cents; HRW up 8; HRS up 2; Corn was up 18 cents; Soybeans up 31; Soymeal up $12.00, and; Soyoil up 35 points. Crushing margins were down 2 at $0.99 cents; Oil share unchanged at 34%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 12 yuan in soybeans, up 23 in Corn, unchanged in Soymeal, up 56 in Soyoil, and up 50 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 31 ringgit at 2,678 (basis November) tracking rival vegoils.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest has the models mixed with light rains for the northern and eastern sections of the region from the European model, the GFS has light to moderate rains east of the Mississippi River and lighter amounts to the west. Temps will warm to average as we work through the week and into the first half of next week.
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest has less than average rainfall and below average temps.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Southern Plains has light rains for central Kansas and little in the way of rains for the rest of the region; temps run above average in the western sections and average to below in the east.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Delta sees limited rainfall for the period.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 1,000 Corn; sold 2,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 1,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 117,000 Corn; net long 45,000 Soybeans; net short 23,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 55,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 1,800 contracts; HRW Wheat down 4,700; Corn down 13,900; Soybeans down 7,100 contracts; Soymeal down 1,600 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,700.
Deliveries were 148 Soymeal; 57 Soyoil, and 87 Soybeans.
There were changes in registrations (Soybeans down 84; Soyoil up 48) —Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 136; Soyoil 2,606 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice ZERO; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
Tender Activity—Algeria seeks 50,000t optional-origin wheat—Turkey seeks 390,000t optional-origin milling wheat, 110,000t durum wheat—Egypt seeks 30,000t optional-origin soyoil, 10,000t sunoil—
he United States and China have delayed a review of their Phase 1 trade deal initially slated for Saturday, sources familiar with the plans told Reuters, citing scheduling conflicts and the need to allow time for more Chinese purchases of U.S. exports; no new date for the initial six-month compliance review between U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He has been agreed.
A storm packing hurricane-force winds on Monday impacted 37.7 million acres of farmland across the Midwest, including 14 million in Iowa, the Iowa Soybean Association said, citing estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture; the toll from the derecho storm has worsened as farmers and grain handlers have spent the week assessing flattened corn fields and crumpled steel storage bins; the USDA said the storm affected 8.18 million acres of corn and 5.64 million acres of soybeans in Iowa, according to the Iowa Soybean Association. The state agriculture department on Tuesday estimated a total of 10 million acres may have been impacted; the storm affected 58,000 holders of crop-insurance policies with a liability of around $6 billion in Iowa, including $1.86 billion for soybeans.
Yield potential for Iowa corn took a nosedive after the damaging windstorm, or derecho, swept through last Monday; otherwise, it was another relatively dry week for the U.S. Crop Watch corn and soybeans, including those in Iowa; expectations also declined last week in North Dakota and Nebraska, which need rain urgently, although many of the Crop Watch fields have needed rain for some time now; temperatures should remain favorably cool over the next week, but the precipitation forecast is sparse.
U.S. soybean crushings likely rose to a four-month high in July, according to analysts polled ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Monday.
Commodity trade financing by the world’s banks is drying up at a rate not seen in more than 20 years, leaving small and medium sized firms most exposed, banking and trading sources said; banks are retrenching after the coronavirus crisis led to defaults by some trading houses, intermediaries in the global movement of oil, metals and agricultural goods which link producers and end-users, and also exposed a series of frauds.
Last week’s government forecast of U.S. corn and soybean crops suggests ample supplies for at least the next year, but speculators were buying Chicago futures late last week as some of those numbers came under scrutiny after severe storm damage.
China is expected to have a food supply gap of about 130 million tons by the end of 2025, as its urban population continues to grow and its rural workforce ages, state media said on Monday, citing a report by a government think tank; as the rural population dwindles and farmers struggle to boost their earnings, Beijing needs to make food security a major priority, according to the China Academy of Social Sciences’ Rural Development Institute (RDI); within five years, the proportion of the population living in urban areas is expected to hit 65.5% of China’s total, up from 60.6% by the end of last year, with around 80 million rural residents moving into the cities; at the same time, the proportion of rural residents aged 60 or older is expected to hit 25.3%, the report said, up from around 15% in the 2010 census.
China has resumed some meat imports from various origins after temporarily banning them as the coronavirus hit global meat processors, a General Administration of Customs statement; it had halted imports from plants in Brazil, Germany, the Netherlands and the United States since June; some of these have resumed shipments, while others are still suspended.
Brazil’s JBS SA is reviving plans to list shares on Wall Street after dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic’s fallout, the Chief Executive Officer said, as the world’s largest meatpacker reported strong quarterly results; speaking on a conference call with analysts following the company’s second-quarter results, the focus is turning towards the Wall Street listing now that the worst of the COVID-19 outbreak appears to have passed.
Brazil is facing a difficult choice between going up against a powerful local sugar lobby and angering a key ally, U.S. President Donald Trump, as a major decision on international ethanol trade looms; a Brazilian tax-free ethanol import quota used entirely by U.S. producers is set to expire on Aug. 31, unless the government renews it; allowing 750 million liters per year, it is a welcome volume for U.S. ethanol makers as the pandemic hit their business; U.S. ethanol producers and the White House expect a renewal of the tax-free quota and Trump has asked the Brazilian President government to eliminate any tariff, currently at 20%, on imports above that quota.
Hot, dry weather has stressed maize crops in major producer France and could curb an expected rise in European production this year after farmers planted more of the cereal; the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) this week cut slightly its projection for the European Union’s maize crop, citing reductions for France and Romania that outweighed increased estimates for Poland, Hungary and Italy.
Russia’s August exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are estimated at 4.9 million tons, up from 3.0 million tons estimated in July, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said.
Ukraine’s grain exports have declined to 4.19 million tons so far in the 2020/21 July-June season, from 5.45 million tons at the same point of the previous season, the economy ministry said; exports have included 2.38 million tons of wheat, 499,000 tons of corn and 1.30 million tons of barley as of Aug. 14
MALAYSIA’S AUG 1-15 PALM OIL EXPORTS SEEN AT 694,402 TONNES – ITS
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