Global Ag News for Apr 14.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil’s rising biodiesel demand restricts soybean oil exports

Brazil’s expanding biodiesel sector continues to redirect soybean oil away from export markets, contributing to elevated global vegetable oil prices, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s April 2025 “Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade” report.

Brazil’s industrial transformation

Despite achieving record soybean oil production of nearly 12 million metric tons for 2024/25, Brazil’s exports remain constrained at 1.3 million tons as domestic biodiesel production consumes growing volumes of the commodity. The report highlights that Brazil’s industrial soybean oil consumption has more than doubled over the past decade, driving a 52% increase in soybean oil production.

“Rising domestic demand exceeded production growth, leading to a slide in exports of soybean oil,” the report states.

The Brazil National Energy Council decided in February 2025 to temporarily maintain the biodiesel blend rate at 14% instead of increasing it to 15% as previously scheduled, citing concerns about diesel prices and inflation. Even with this pause, the report suggests that “further growth in Brazil’s biodiesel production is likely to keep soybean oil exports near last year’s level despite higher crush.”

China accelerates rapeseed imports ahead of tariffs

China’s rapeseed imports for 2024/25 have been revised upward by 1 million tons to 4 million tons, reflecting an accelerated pace of trade in recent months. This surge occurs as Canadian canola prices declined due to an ongoing trade dispute with China.

On March 20, 2025, China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed products, leading USDA to slash its forecast for China’s rapeseed meal imports by 800,000 tons to 2.2 million tons. China’s rapeseed oil imports remain unchanged at nearly 1.8 million tons, as the country primarily sources from Russia, United Arab Emirates, Belarus, and Ukraine.

Global market outlook

The global oilseed production forecast has been lowered due to downward revisions to China’s cottonseed-to-lint ratio and reduced EU rapeseed and sunflowerseed production. However, overall oilseed trade is higher, driven by significant Canadian rapeseed exports.

Global crush is increasing, with Brazil soybean and China rapeseed utilization being most prominent. The report also indicates higher global oilseed carryout, largely due to an upward revision to Brazil’s 2023/2024 soybean production.

In the vegetable oil market, global production is lower primarily due to reduced palm oil output in Southeast Asia. The report notes that “shrinking exportable supplies of Brazilian soybean oil and palm oil in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand have kept global vegetable oil export prices elevated in early 2025.”

The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans remains unchanged at $9.95 per bushel.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 3/4 in SRW, down 9 1/2 in HRW, down 5 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 1 3/4; Soymeal down $2.80; Soyoil down 0.16.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 14 1/4 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, up 13 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 24 1/4; Soybeans up 53; Soymeal up $7.80; Soyoil up 1.98.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 15 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, up 16 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 33; Soybeans up 23; Soymeal up $3.70; Soyoil up 2.29.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 0.3% in SRW, down 0.3% in HRW, up 2.0% in HRS; Corn is up 6.4%; Soybeans up 4.2%; Soymeal down 3.4%; Soyoil up 18.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 15 yuan; Soymeal up 23; Soyoil up 42; Palm oil down 12; Corn up 3 — Malaysian Palm is down 42.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 42 ringgit (-1.00%) at 4170.

There were changes in registrations (-53 Soymeal). Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 459 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,170 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 11 were: SRW Wheat down 11,294 contracts, HRW Wheat down 7,889, Corn up 3,421, Soybeans down 17,234, Soymeal down 3,445, Soyoil up 1,789.

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers went through over the weekend and isolated showers should continue on Monday. Though the weather pattern has been active and soil moisture has improved in a lot of areas, long-term drought still remains across much of the region and will not go away easily. Another system moving through later this week could bring some showers, but there is one that should move through over the weekend or early next week that has a chance for at least eastern areas to receive needed rainfall. While temperatures are riding a roller coaster this week, they should trend below normal next week, which may delay the rising of soil temperatures and planting.

Central/Southern Plains: It was largely dry over the weekend, favorable for planting. But with temperatures like summer across the south, it has not been favorable for developing winter wheat. The region should start to get more active again this week with a couple of systems moving through. Southwestern areas that have been somewhat drier lately need to see more rain and they may get it with a system that comes through this weekend, which is targeting this area with moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms. The pattern next week also looks favorable for bringing more rain chances through the region.

Midwest: A system went through over the weekend with some limited areas of showers. The system will continue to bring through some rain chances through Tuesday before exiting. Another system later this week should bring more widespread rain chances. More systems are forecast for the late weekend and next week, keeping the region very active. Wet areas across the south are going to have many chances for bringing more water through, delaying planting and drowning winter wheat. Limited areas of drought across the northwest will have opportunity for further reduction. Temperatures will continue to swing with systems moving through.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: It was drier over the weekend, allowing for better conditions to drain excessive water out of soils. Flooding along the Mississippi will take a lot of time. A more active weather pattern this weekend and next week could create further flood conditions and limit potential for fieldwork, causing delays and potential damage.

Brazil: A front moved into the south over the weekend, bringing some much-needed heavier rain. Additional fronts moving up from Argentina should be supplying continued rainfall through next week. If these fronts produce what is being forecast, that should benefit pollinating corn. If they under-produce, then the below-normal soil moisture will be called upon to provide needed moisture too early and that could damage the corn.

Argentina: A front brought moderate rain to southern areas on Friday. Another will do something similar on Monday into Tuesday. Another front will move through late this week. The country will likely get drier next week. Both corn and soybeans continue to mature across the country and would prefer drier weather to harvest so some delays may occur to that.

 

The player sheet for 4/11 had funds: net buyers of 6,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 9,000 corn, buyers of 9,500 soybeans, buyers of 8,000 soymeal, and buyers of 4,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 55,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2024/25 marketing year along with 66,000 tons for shipment in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• RICE SALE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp purchased an estimated 34,632 metric tons of rice mainly to be sourced from the United States in an international tender which closed on March 11.
• RICE SALE: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer is believed to have to purchased about 50,000 metric tons of rice in an international tender which closed on March 27.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase about 80,000 metric tons of rice
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: The offer deadline in an international tender from a state grains buyer in Syria to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat has been amended to April 21.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

NOPA March US soybean crush seen rising to 197.602 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush likely increased in March to the highest-ever level for the third month of the year, with the daily processing pace up slightly from a five-month low in February, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association report due on Tuesday.

NOPA members, who handle more than 95% of all soybeans processed in the U.S., were estimated to have crushed 197.602 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts surveyed by Reuters.

If realized, the total would be up 11.1% from the 177.870 million bushels crushed in February and up 0.6% from the March 2024 crush of 196.406 million bushels, which is also the highest March crush on record.

The estimate implies an average daily crush of 6.374 million bushels in March, up from the 6.353-million-bushel daily pace in February, which was the slowest rate since September.

U.S. soybean crush capacity has increased in recent years as several new processing plants have opened while some existing facilities have expanded amid rising demand for soyoil from biofuel makers.

However, some processors have slowed their crush since January due to weakening margins and a glut of soymeal in the marketplace, analysts said.

Crush estimates for March ranged from 193.500 million to 202.000 million bushels, with a median of 198.000 million bushels.

The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Tuesday.

Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of March 31 were projected to rise to 1.617 billion pounds, based on estimates from six analysts.

The figure, if realized, would be up 7.6% from stocks totaling 1.503 billion pounds at the end of February but down 12.7% from the 1.851 billion pounds held by NOPA members a year earlier. It would also be the largest stockpile since the end of June 2024, according to NOPA data.

Oil stocks estimates ranged from 1.475 billion to 1.700 billion pounds, with a median of 1.624 billion pounds.

 

Argentina soy, once parched, now has too much rain

Drenched Argentine fields due to heavy rains in the country’s farm heartland are raising fears of soybean losses and delayed sales of the 2024/25 crop, although drier weather on the horizon should bring relief to producers, industry experts said.

Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and meal, but combines are having difficulty entering waterlogged fields to begin harvesting following heavy rains in March and storms last week.

On Thursday, the Buenos Aires grains exchange reported that the 2024/25 soybean harvest, estimated at 48.6 million tons, is 4 percentage points behind the average harvesting pace of the last five years.

“The environment is very oversaturated. Harvesting this week had a terrible level of humidity. There was fog, mist. Everything was wet,” Germán Heinzenknecht, a meteorologist with the Applied Climatology Consulting Firm, told Reuters.

Many fields and access roads in key agricultural areas are impassable, which, according to Cristian Russo, head of agricultural estimates at the major Rosario grains exchange, is generating concerns among farmers.

“There is fear, and people are trying to access the fields by any means. There’s a risk with the humidity of getting rot (fungus) and there will be a discount on quantity and quality,” said Russo.

He added that there was also a risk that if the plants are not harvested soon, the pods will split open.

SOY SALES AT SLOWEST PACE IN 10 YEARS

The difficulties in advancing the grain harvest have also caused delays in 2024/25 soybean sales in Argentina, which as of April 2 recorded the slowest sales pace in the last 10 years, with only about 20% of the estimated harvest sold.

The immediate forecasts show no improvement for rural areas. On Thursday, the Rosario exchange indicated that unstable conditions with likely rain are expected for the coming days.

However, Heinzenknecht said there are reasons for producers to be more optimistic from next week.

“We have humidity problems, but we are not seeing a consolidation of soil problems,” he said.

“Starting next week, we could enter a slightly more virtuous cycle. We’re going into a second half of April with a slightly drier climate, with less significant rainfall,” he said.

 

China March Agricultural Imports: Customs

• Soybean Imports in March fell to 3.503m tons.
  • Soybean imports YTD fell 7.9% y/y to 17.109m tons
• Edible vegetable oil imports in March 650,000 tons
  • Edible vegetable oil imports YTD fell 14.4% y/y to 1.548m tons
• Meat (including offal) imports in March 548,000 tons
  • Meat (including offal) imports YTD fell 2% y/y to 1.646m tons
• Fertilizer exports in March 2.483m tons
  • Fertilizer exports YTD rose 44.5% y/y to 7.156m tons

 

China’s March soybean imports hit 17-year low on tariff fears, Brazil harvest delays

China’s soybean imports tumbled in March to their lowest for the month since 2008, as tariff-weary processors shied away from U.S. beans and delays in Brazil’s harvest reduced shipments.

Total imports for the month reached 3.5 million metric tons, down 36.8% from the same period last year, showed data from the General Administration of Customs.

Over January-March, soybean arrivals into the world’s biggest soybean buyer totalled 17.11 million tons, a decline of 7.9% from 18.58 million tons a year earlier, the data showed.

The figure was below analysts’ and traders’ first-quarter forecasts of 17.3 million to 18.0 million tons.

“The market was concerned about a trade war after Trump took office. Additionally, with expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil, most orders were for Brazilian soybeans,” said analyst Rosa Wang at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI.

Wang said the delayed harvest and traffic jam in Brazil – China’s biggest supplier – added pressure on imports in March.

Soybean trade has not escaped the Sino-U.S. trade war. China raised tariffs on all U.S. imports to 125% in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff action.

That came on top of the 10% to 15% levies imposed in early March on some $21 billion worth of U.S. agricultural and food products, pushing tariffs on U.S. soybeans to 135%.

The escalation has accelerated a shift toward Brazilian supplies. Chinese soybean crushers secured at least 40 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans in the first half of last week alone, mainly for delivery over May through July, Bloomberg reported.

Analysts expect soybean imports to set a record of 31.3 million tons in April-June driven by the arrival of freshly harvested beans from Brazil’s bumper crop.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Demand increases and prices rise

Corn prices are moving up again in some regions surveyed by Cepea, interrupting the downward trend verified since late March.

Increases are related to the fact that purchasers are willing to trade in certain regions, such as in São Paulo. They need to replenish inventories for the next weeks, since the coming holidays may bring difficulties for the delivery of the product. Sellers, however, are limiting the supply again, asking higher prices.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) moved up 0.9% between April 3 and 10, closing at BRL 85.57 per 60-kilo bag on April 10. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, from April 3-10, corn values dropped 2.8% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 1.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

Conab released a report this week indicating that the 2024/25 season may increase by 8% compared to the previous, at 124.74 million tons. The first and the second crops are likely to grow 6.5% and 8.5%, respectively, compared to 2023/24, at 24.46 and 97.89 million tons, while the third crop is expected to decrease 3.8%, at 2.38 million tons.

The domestic demand may increase 4%, at 87 million tons, leading sales to the international market to reduce by 4.5 million tons, at 34 million tons. Thus, ending stocks may total 7.39 million tons by January/26.

In global terms, the USDA indicates that stocks changed from 288.94 million tons in March to 287.65 million tons this month, downing 8% compared to the 2023/24 crop. The world production is estimated at 1.22 billion tons, and the consumption, at 1.24 billion tons. The stock/consumption relation in 2024/25 may be 23.3%, below the average over the last five years (26.4%).

CROPS – Conab indicates that second crop sowing activities reached 99.1% of the area until April 5. Seab/Deral says that activities finished in Paraná, but crops conditions are not favorable: 12% of the total (2.66 million hectares) are in bad situation (against 8% in 2024). In Mato Grosso do Sul, sowing activities reached 97.4% of the area until April 4 – data from Famasul.

The summer crop harvesting had totaled 59.2% of the area in Brazil up to April 5, more than the average over the last five years (2020-2024), of 54.8% – data from Conab. In Paraná, activities had reached 96% of the area until April 7 (Seab/Deral). In Santa Catarina, the percentage is at 92% (Conab). As for Rio Grande do Sul, activities reached 85% of the area, according to Emater.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Dollar increase and high demand from abroad boost values in Brazil

Soy prices upped this week in both domestic and international markets, influenced by the high demand from abroad. In Brazil, the dollar valuation against Real intensified increases. The US dollar rose 4.9% against Real between April 3 and 10, closing at BRL 5.904 on April 10 – it surpassed BRL 6 this week.

However, the dollar oscillation limited the pace of trades in the spot market, since it led players to be away from closing deals, expecting better opportunities.

Moreover, on April 9, the US government suspended “reciprocal” tariffs of several countries, including Brazil, for 90 days, except China. On one hand, this scenario brought a certain relief for the market, increasing international trades, but, on the other, it boosted the trade war with China, which, in turn, is likely to intensify import from other countries, like Brazil. China is the major destination for the Brazilian soy. The country accounts for more than 70% of national shipments since 2011.

As a result, Brazilian soybean exports continue projected at a record volume in the 2024/25 season, at 105.8 million tons (from Oct/24 to Sept/25) by the USDA, and at 105.85 million tons (from January to December/25) by Conab.

According to data from Secex, Brazil shipped 22.17 million tons of soybeans in the first quarter of 2025, a record for the period.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) increased 4.2% from April 3-10, to close at BRL 137.66 per 60-kg bag on April 10. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) rose 3.2% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 131.10 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices increased 3.9% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 3.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) in the same comparison.

Price rises were limited by projections of a record crop in Brazil, estimated at 169 million tons by the USDA and by 167.8 million tons by Conab. Conab also indicated that the soy harvesting reached 85.3% of the area in Brazil.

 

Over 93% of Russia’s Winter Crop Is In Good State: Tass

Over 93% of Russia’s winter crop is in good state, according to assessments made in April, Tass reports, citing office of Deputy PM Dmitry Patrushev.

Out of around 84 million ha of Russia’s crop area in 2025, some 20 million ha is planted with winter crop, according to Patrushev’s office

 

Analyst APK-Inform sees Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest rising 8% to 57.5 mln tons

Analyst APK-Inform said on Monday that Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest could increase by 8% to 57.5 million metric tons thanks to a larger corn crop of 29.2 million tons, 18% more than in 2024.

The consultancy said Ukraine can also harvest 21.5 million tons of wheat and 5.3 million tons of barley.

APK-Inform said Ukrainian grain exports could increase by 11% to 42.6 million tons in the 2025/26 July-June season.

The consultancy gave no reason for the higher outlook.

The agriculture ministry has not yet issued its 2025 grain harvest outlook, but said the 2025 sowing area could be mostly the same as in 2024.

 

US Beef Production Falls 4.3% This Week, Pork Down: USDA

US federally inspected beef production falls to 491m pounds for the week ending April 12 from 513m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter down 4.6% from a week ago to 564m head
• Pork production down 0.7% from a week ago, hog slaughter falls 0.9%
• For the year, beef production is 1.7% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 2.6% below

 

 

 

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