Global Ag News for Apr 15.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trade War a Boost for South American Cereal Suppliers, UN Says

South American nations are poised to benefit from the US-China trade war by filling gaps in global supply chains for agricultural commodities like cereals, according to a top United Nations economist.

Countries including Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay stand to benefit from ongoing tensions between the economic powerhouses by positioning themselves as alternate cereal providers to the US for large importers like China, the UN’s Food & Agriculture Organization Chief Economist, Maximo Torero, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday.

“We are living in a very concentrated market where we have very few exporting countries of these commodities,” Torero said. While prices for staples like wheat, maize and soybeans remain stable, retail food prices are high due to the ongoing inflationary impact of other input costs such as energy and transport, he said.

Poor, import-dependent countries stand to lose most from the Sino-American trade war because they are more susceptible to currency devaluations, cannot easily absorb price shocks, and are most acutely impacted by commodity price fluctuations, Torero said.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 in SRW, down 4 1/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans down 7 1/2; Soymeal down $3.10; Soyoil down 0.23.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 10 1/2 in SRW, down 17 1/4 in HRW, down 10 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans down 10 1/4; Soymeal down $5.60; Soyoil down 1.22.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 9 1/4 in SRW, down 4 in HRW, up 11 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 31 1/2; Soybeans up 14 1/2; Soymeal up $0.90; Soyoil up 1.23.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.1% in SRW, down 1.5% in HRW, up 1.3% in HRS; Corn is up 6.3%; Soybeans up 3.6%; Soymeal down 4.5%; Soyoil up 15.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 2 yuan; Soymeal down 3; Soyoil down 24; Palm oil down 28; Corn down 16 — Malaysian Palm is down 70.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 70 ringgit (-1.68%) at 4100.

 

There were changes in registrations (-99 Soybeans). Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 360 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,170 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 14 were: SRW Wheat up 3,136 contracts, HRW Wheat up 87, Corn up 9,972, Soybeans down 8,197, Soymeal down 2,411, Soyoil down 4,755.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 14 April 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Temperatures will fluctuate over the next couple weeks across the U.S. while remaining moderate in nature, as no major cold snap will threaten winter wheat development
• SOUTH AMERICA: After a round of heavy rains this week, the Argentina Pampas will dry out to the benefit of the corn/soybean harvest
• EAST ASIA: Persistent warmth and moderate rains should provide generally favorable conditions for corn plantings in Northeast China through the balance of the month
• SOUTH ASIA: Warm and dry weather into the foreseeable future over north/central India will facilitate the wheat harvest

 

WET SPELLS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL WHILE ARGENTINA REMAINS DRY

What to Watch:

• Wet weather in the southwest Pampas, unfavorable  to corn harvesting
• Wet spells in Central Brazil

 

Northern Plains: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, falling Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Midwest West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 4/14 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,000 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 120,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for shipment to Japan in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase about 80,000 metric tons of rice
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: The offer deadline in an international tender from a state grains buyer in Syria to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat has been amended to April 21.

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.829m Tons of Corn for Export, 546k of Soybeans

In week ending April 10, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 604k tons vs 335k the previous wk, 620k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 546k tons vs 814k the previous wk, 448k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,829k tons vs 1,613k the previous wk, 1,365k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: April 10

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending April 10 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 135k tons of the 546k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Up 3.4%

March placements onto feedlots seen rising y/y to 1.81m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

• That would be the biggest y/y increase since Oct.
• Estimates range from -1% to +6.7% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of April 1 seen falling by 1.8% y/y to 11.62m head
• Marketings seen rising 0.6% y/y

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Planting starts; area may decrease

In spite of the wheat price rise in the wholesale market in this partial of 2025, values paid to farmers upped less significantly. This scenario may limit the attractiveness of the wheat planting this year – Conab already estimated a smaller area compared to 2024. As a result, a production increase will depend on the productivity, which is estimated to compensate the area drop and to result in higher supply in 2025.

According to data from Conab, the 2025 planting has started in Goiás and in Minas Gerais. Activities are likely to start only in May/June in major producing states, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul.

Data from Conab indicate a decrease of 9.3% of the wheat area in 2025, to 2.77 million hectares. In Southern Brazil, the reduction is likely to be at 10.9%, especially influenced by the sharp decrease of 20.5% in the area in Paraná.

The average productivity is likely to total 3.06 tons per hectare, 18.5% more than in 2024, which would result in a production of 8.47 million tons (+7.4% compared to the last year). Adding the output to initial stocks (904 thousand tons) and to imports (5.6 million tons), the domestic availability is estimated at 14.98 million tons, only 1.2% more than in 2024. From this amount, Conab estimates a domestic consumption at 11.85 million tons, exports at 2 million tons and ending stocks at 1.12 million tons by July/26.

The USDA says that the global output is likely to amount 796.85 million tons. The world consumption is projected at 805.2 million tons, 0.2% less than that forecast in the previous report, but upping 0.9% compared to the last season.

According to data from Cepea, between April 4 and 11, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) increased 0.23% in Rio Grande do Sul and 2% in Santa Catarina, and remained stable in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values upped 1% in Paraná, 0.33% in Santa Catarina and 0.41% in São Paulo, but downed only 0.1% in Rio Grande do Sul. Dollar quotations upped 0.58% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.870 on April 11.

 

Argentina farmers focus on harvest over sales despite currency boost

• Exchange-rate overhaul welcomed but immediate sales unlikely due to delayed harvest
• Soy and corn sales slow amid Easter holidays and uncertain peso value
• Farmers focus on harvesting; potential tax break extension uncertain

Argentina’s grain industry welcomed an exchange-rate overhaul on Monday, though the new measures will likely not translate into immediate sales as the harvest remains behind schedule, experts said.

Late on Friday, Argentina’s central bank loosened foreign-exchange controls, a long-awaited measure twinned with billions of dollars to be disbursed by development banks including the International Monetary Fund.

Lifting of the controls is also meant to speed up agricultural sales, a prime source of cash from abroad.

Despite that, soy and corn sales should remain slow this week, with Easter holidays cutting trading short and exporters still unsure of where the peso currency will settle. The soybean harvest has also fallen behind due to heavy rainfall.

“Producers are more focused on harvesting than on the exchange rate, which they already know will be above Friday’s 1,129 pesos per dollar,” said analyst Lorena D’Angelo, based in grains hub Rosario.

With the capital controls lifted on Monday, the peso was allowed to float freely within a moving band between 1,000 and 1,400 pesos per dollar. By midday, it was trading around 1,190 pesos per greenback.

Farmers are now rushing to bring in the soy crop amid a break in rains. More precipitation could cause fungus and infection, hitting the harvest’s yield.

“We’re harvesting as much as we can,” said Noelia Castagnini, a farmer near Venado Tuerto in grain province Santa Fe. “Right now, all my machines are covered in mud, but we’ll worry about the fields later.”

President Javier Milei, in an interview on Monday with local radio El Observador, pushed for farmers to speed up their sales.

“Tell the farmers that if they need to sell, they need to do it now,” he said.

Argentina currently taxes soy exports at 26% and shipments of derived oil and meal at 24.5%. Milei hinted that a temporary tax break, set to expire at the end of June, would not be extended.

 

France Lifts Soft-Wheat Plantings Outlook; Durum at 32-Year Low

French farmers likely planted 4.63m hectares of soft-wheat for the coming season, the country’s agriculture ministry said in a Tuesday report.

• That’s above a February estimate for 4.57m hectares of winter soft-wheat, and would be 10% higher y/y
  • NOTE: The vast majority of France’s soft-wheat crop is winter grain; a minimal amount is spring sown
• Conditions are improving compared to the beginning of the year, the ministry says
• Winter-barley area seen at 1.22m hectares, about steady with a February estimate
  • Total barley plantings, including spring varieties, are seen at 1.74m hectares, 3.6% lower than the prior year
• Rapeseed plantings estimate kept about steady at 1.29m hectares
• Durum-wheat area seen at 223k hectares; that’s the lowest level since 1993

 

Declining prices clear way for Brazil to raise biodiesel blend to 15%, industry group says

Declining vegetable oil prices are clearing the way for Brazil to increase its mandatory biodiesel blend into diesel to 15%, up from 14%, Daniel Amaral, the director of economics and regulatory affairs at oilseed industry group Abiove, said on Monday.

Brazil’s national energy council decided in February to hold the blend at 14% amid fears the proposed increase could push up food prices, negatively hitting President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s declining approval ratings.

In the second half of last year, vegetable oil prices were rising, as the government tried to tackle inflation, which stood at 5.48% for the 12 months through March. The central bank’s target is 3%.

Now prices are falling again, Amaral said, amid recovering supply and demand conditions for vegetable oils. That decrease in vegetable oil prices means it is now up to the government to move forward with its plans to increase the mandatory biodiesel blend to 15%, he added.

“The conditions are already in place for this, the industry has capacity, we are increasing crushing, all of this is already in place,” Amaral said on the sidelines of an Abiove event in Sao Paulo. “The decision now depends on the government and we hope it happens as quickly as possible.”

The Ministry of Mines and Energy did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside normal office hours.

Abiove has always argued that increasing demand for biodiesel would not affect prices for consumers, Amaral said. That is because the increase in vegetable oil prices earlier this year was principally due to the effect of foreign exchange rates and problems with the palm harvest in Southeast Asia, he added.

“These were issues outside Brazil,” he said.

Following the decision to hold the blend at 14%, agribusiness consultancy StoneX cut its forecast increase for biodiesel sales growth in half from 1.2 million cubic meters to 600,000 cubic meters.

 

Pakistan Sees Wheat Output Drop 10.6% to 28.6m Tons in 2025

Pakistan forecasts wheat production at 28.6 million tons in 2025 vs 31.8 million tons last year, Mohammad Asif, wheat commissioner at the ministry of food security said by phone.

• Decline in output estimated as the grain cultivating area shrunk by around 7% to 22.6 million acres and prolonged dry weather, says Asif
• Total grain availability during the year expected to be 33.1 million tons including a carry forward stock against total need of 33.6 million tons, ministry officials informed a parliament session earlier this week
• NOTE: Pakistan’s wheat harvesting starts in April-May and sowing in Oct.-Nov.

 

Germany declared free of foot-and-mouth disease, says ministry

Germany has been certified as free of foot-and-mouth disease by the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), the federal agriculture ministry said on Tuesday.

Germany announced its first outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease since 1988 on January 10 in a herd of water buffalo on the outskirts of Berlin, in the Brandenburg region.

The status of being free of the disease had been reinstated for most of Germany except the containment zone in mid-March. Britain lifted a ban on imports of German livestock and animal products shortly after.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious, but usually non-fatal, viral infection of cloven-hoofed animals which may also affect certain other species.

Hungary reported a first case in over 50 years on a cattle farm near the border with Austria and Slovakia in March.

 

Cold weather in April was unfavourable for Ukrainian crops, say forecasters

A sharp cold snap with deep frost and snow across all Ukrainian regions in early April has practically stopped the development of grain crops, Ukrainian state meteorologists were quoted as saying late on Monday.

In early April, the minimum temperature in the air and on the soil surface dropped to minus 11 degrees Celsius (12.2 degrees Fahrenheit) for 2 to 8 days, and snow and weak soil warming suspended field work and sowing of early spring grains.

However, heavy rainfall made up for the lack of moisture in many regions, APK-Inform consultancy quoted forecasters as saying.

“Precipitation, which was observed during the ten-day period, favoured replenishment of productive moisture reserves in all soil layers,” meteorologists said in a report.

“At the end of the ten-day period, moisture supply of arable and metre soil layers was mostly sufficient and optimal.”

Ukraine in recent years has often suffered from moisture deficit, especially in May and June, which are critical for plant development.

Ukrainian farm ministry data showed that farmers had already sown 1.25 million hectares of spring crops as of April 11.

The area included 612,200 hectares of spring barley, 141,100 hectares of spring wheat, 182,800 hectares of peas and 106,100 hectares of oats.

 

Wet spells expected across Southern China while North India remains dry

What to Watch:

• Dry weather in North India
• Wet weather in South/Central-South China
• Wet spells in North Japan

 

India Expects Above-Normal Monsoon Rains in Boost to Crops

India expects an above-normal monsoon this year, which could help boost agriculture output and economic growth as US tariffs throw global trade into turmoil.

Total rainfall during the June-September window is forecast to be 105% of the long-term average, according to M. Ravichandran, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences. The forecast has a 5% margin of error.

The summer monsoon is responsible for the bulk of India’s total annual rainfall, and is crucial for replenishing aquifers and supporting farming activity. It occurs when wind currents shift to blowing from the southwest, bringing humid air to the country where it warms over land, rising to form clouds and then falling as rain.

Besides watering fields directly and ensuring adequate soil moisture, seasonal monsoon rains are also critical for replenishing reservoirs used to irrigate mainly winter-sown crops. By contrast, insufficient rain causes water shortages, crimps harvests and raises imports of some commodities.

The official forecast for a monsoon that’s above normal will bring relief to farmers, who have been grappling with an early onset of summer. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects an above-normal number of heatwave-days during the hot season from April to June.

Earlier this month, the US Department of Agriculture’s international arm predicted a record wheat crop in India for a third year as higher-than-average rainfall last year improved soil moisture. With an assumption of a normal monsoon this year, it also forecast a near-record rice harvest in the 2025-26 marketing year, which begins on Oct. 1.

Last year’s monsoon rains were 108% of the long-term average, according to the weather department, making it the best rainy season in four years in a boost to crops. That followed the weakest rainy season in half a decade in 2023.

 

 

 

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