Global Ag News for Apr 16.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China’s Cofco hiring dozens in farm powerhouse Brazil

Cofco International, which is building its biggest export port terminal in the world in Brazil, said on Tuesday China’s state-run food group is recruiting dozens in the South American farm powerhouse.

The move underscores the importance of Brazil to the company amid an escalating global trade war opposing the United States and China, which tends to boost sales of agricultural products like soybeans from the South American country to the Asian nation.

Cofco’s hiring spree in Brazil also comes as U.S.-headquartered competitors like Archer-Daniels-Midland and Cargill cut costs and headcount worldwide.

“There are openings in different departments and hierarchical levels, most of which are in operations, sales, trading and administrative areas,” Cofco said to answer a question from Reuters after a recruiting event.

It declined to comment specifically on the effects of the tariffs on its Brazilian operation, nor did it specify how many job openings are currently available.

Cofco, which is one of Brazil’s largest grain exporters and also sources and exports oilseeds, sugar, coffee, and cotton, and produces ethanol, has already invested in the country’s top soybean port, Santos.

As part of the company’s expansion drive, Cofco is building a new grains terminal at Santos, which is expected to be operational later this year. Cofco said it is already carrying out the operational tests to complete the facility’s first phase of construction.

Next year, when the second phase of the project should be complete, the company’s export capacity at Santos will increase to 14 million metric tons of grains, compared with the current 4.5 million tons.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3/4 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans down 1 3/4; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil down 0.01.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 15 1/2 in SRW, down 17 1/2 in HRW, down 12 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 3/4; Soybeans down 8; Soymeal down $4.90; Soyoil down 0.11.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 6 1/4 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, up 10 in HRS; Corn is up 27 1/2; Soybeans up 16 1/2; Soymeal up $1.60; Soyoil up 2.44.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.9% in SRW, down 1.4% in HRW, up 0.8% in HRS; Corn is up 5.3%; Soybeans up 3.7%; Soymeal down 4.5%; Soyoil up 18.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 21 yuan; Soymeal down 51; Soyoil up 14; Palm oil down 22; Corn up 7 — Malaysian Palm is down 35.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 35 ringgit (-0.85%) at 4073.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 360 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,170 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 15 were: SRW Wheat down 5,502 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,751, Corn down 3,662, Soybeans down 3,767, Soymeal up 2,070, Soyoil up 5,169.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 15 April 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Much needed rains for U.S. winter wheat will hit the Plains from the end of this week through next week as a very active weather pattern takes hold of the region
• SOUTH AMERICA: Persistently cool temperatures through the next 15 days along the Argentina Pampas could slow the corn/soybean harvest
• AFRICA: Dry weather will prevail through the next 10 days along the cocoa regions of the Ivory Coast in an unfavorable outlook for crop development
• AUSTRALIA: Moderate to warm temperatures and a split rainfall pattern are in store for Australia through the end of the month, with eastern wheat/rapeseed plantings benefiting from dry conditions

ACTIVE U.S. WEATHER WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH CLODER CONDITIONS

What to Watch:

• Warm temperatures will prevail over the U.S. Plains and Midwest regions this week, though colder weather will then move in from the north
• An active storm track will return this weekend over most of the U.S., bringing widespread rains and thunderstorms to the country
• Upcoming rains will be well received by a winter wheat crop struggling with dryness early this season, while increasingly cold/wet weather will slow spring crop plantings into late April

THE MAIN RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS CORN AREAS OF BRAZIL IS STILL AWAITED

What to Watch:

• Rains in the last week across Central Brazil were disappointing compared to the expectations
• Wet conditions during the next 10-15 days are still forecasted, with a chance of prolonging into early May and partial improvement of the 2nd corn conditions
• Despite the regional rains in Argentinian Pampas this week, a timid rainfall pattern will support harvests in late April and early May

 

The player sheet for 4/15 had funds: net sellers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,000 corn, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 6,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 110,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for shipment to Portugal in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer bought around 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: An importer in the Philippines is on Friday believed to have bought an unknown volume of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase about 80,000 metric tons of rice
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: The offer deadline in an international tender from a state grains buyer in Syria to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat has been amended to April 21.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending April 11 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.004m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 26.803m bbl vs 27.034m a week ago

 

NOPA March US soybean crush at 194.551 million bushels, below most estimates

The U.S. soybean crush in March fell below most trade estimates as the industry’s average daily processing pace declined for a third straight month, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Tuesday.

NOPA members, which account for at least 95% of U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 194.551 million bushels of the oilseed last month, up 9.4% from the February crush of 177.870 million bushels but down 0.9% from the March 2024 crush of 196.406 million bushels.

The March total implied an average daily processing pace of 6.276 million bushels a day, which was down from the 6.353 million bushels a day crushed in February and the lowest daily rate since September, according to NOPA data.

The average processing rate declined despite the addition of new NOPA member Scoular and its crush plant in Goodland, Kansas, to the group’s monthly report for the first time in March.

Soy crush rates generally have ramped up in recent years as new processing plants have come online and other facilities expanded capacity to meet rising demand for soyoil from biofuel makers.

But weak crush margins and slumping soymeal prices prompted several plants to slow output in recent months, analysts said.

The March 2025 crush was below the average analyst estimate of 197.602 million bushels in a Reuters poll of nine analysts. Estimates ranged from 193.500 million to 202.000 million bushels, with a median of 198.000 million bushels.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of March 31 declined for the first time in six months to 1.498 billion pounds, down 0.3% from 1.503 billion pounds at the end of February and down 19.1% from the 1.851 billion pounds in stocks a year earlier.

Stocks, on average, were expected to rise to 1.617 billion pounds, according to estimates from six analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.475 billion to 1.700 billion lbs, with a median of 1.624 billion lbs.

 

Brazil soy exports seen at 14.5 mln tns in April vs 13.3 mln tns in previous estimate – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 14.5 MILLION METRIC TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 13.3 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.4 MILLION TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 2.3 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC

 

Argentina bumper wheat harvest could hit record if export tax cuts extended

• Exchange forecasts second-largest wheat production ever
• Forecast based on 12% tax, could rise with tax cut extension
• Milei govt cut wheat export tax to 9.5% till June to boost sales
• Government opposed to renewing grain export tax breaks
• Peso has weakened with free float, boosting export income

Argentina’s major Buenos Aires grains exchange, already forecasting a bumper wheat crop, could raise its estimates even higher if a temporary export tax cut until the end of June is extended, the body’s chief economist told Reuters on Tuesday.

On the sidelines of an event to unveil the maiden forecast for 2025/26 wheat production, economist Ramiro Costa told Reuters that the current estimate of 20.5 million metric tons would go higher with an extended tax cut.

The possibility of an even higher – and potentially record – wheat harvest has not been previously reported.

Argentina is a key global wheat exporter – as well as a leading exporter of soy and corn. The current wheat harvest forecast would already mark its second-largest wheat production ever, just below the 22.4 million tons in the 2021/22 season.

In January, Argentina’s government under libertarian President Javier Milei reduced until the end of June export taxes on wheat to 9.5% from 12% previously, as well as export tariffs on soy and corn, hoping to boost sales.

Milei, who favors tax reductions but needs farmers to speed up grains sales to bring in much-needed dollars, has said the government will not renew the tax breaks on grains exports after June, though the sector is pushing hard to get them extended.

“The current estimate is made with a tax of 12%, which is the one that will be in force again as of the end of June. If the government extends the current temporary reduction (the forecast) will be higher,” Costa told Reuters.

Argentina’s government on Monday also abandoned a crawling peg of the local currency and let the peso float freely against the dollar within a band of 1,000-1,400 pesos, leading to a sharp 10% weakening of the currency.

The weaker currency benefits farmers because it means they get more pesos in exchange for their export incomes in dollars, spurring more shipments. The easing of controls on the currency has been cheered by farmers.

“All these measures of the government are acceptable, but the tax burden is still not addressed,” Buenos Aires grains exchange President José Martins said separately at the close of the presentation in Buenos Aires.

“Let’s bet that this glass half full over the course of these months will end up being filled.”

 

2025/26 Ukraine corn production to increase substantially from year earlier

2025/26 UKRAINE CORN PRODUCTION: 27.9 [26.5-29.3] MILLION TONS, UP 14% FROM LAST SEASON

Increases in harvested area and yields set 2025/26 Ukraine corn production at 27.9 [26.5-29.3] million tons, 14% above last season’s 24.4 million tons estimated by LSEG Agriculture Research.

The spring planting campaign began last week but has been temporarily halted by cold snaps in the region. Farmers intend to sow more corn this year due to an upward trend in corn prices and growing interest from international buyers amid ongoing global tariff tensions and tight grain supplies in the EU and Black Sea regions. As such we estimated, Ukraine’s corn sown area at 4.20 million hectares, 7.8% higher than prior season’s 3.9 million hectares reported by LSEG. Recent cooler weather and normal precipitation has been beneficial, as rains have replenished the low soil moisture resulted from previous warm and dry conditions across the major corn-producing oblasts such as Zhytomyr, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, and Poltava.

According to the forecasts, warm and dry weather is expected across Ukraine through April. If materialized, it will be favorable for the corn sowing campaign but might pose a risk for crops development later. Assuming normal forward weather we set Ukrainian corn yield potential at 6.62 tons per ha. Our area and yield estimates place 2025/26 Ukraine corn production at 27.9 million tons. As the season progresses, we will periodically update corn yield estimates based on observed and forecasted weather, satellite imagery, and soil moisture data.

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Output Seen at 47M Tons in 2025-26: USDA FAS

Indonesia’s palm oil production seen rising to 47m tons in the 2025-26 season, which starts in October, as yields improve due to favorable weather and adequate fertilizer use, according to USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service in a note.

• That would be up from the agency’s outlook for 45.5m tons in the current season and the official USDA forecast for 46.5m tons
• Palm oil exports may slightly increase to 23m tons on continued demand from major buyers like China, India and Pakistan
  • Still, increased domestic use for biodiesel to limit supply for exports
• Indonesia seen consuming 22.6m tons of the vegetable oil domestically as demand for industrial use and food sector increases
• Country will need to increase biodiesel production capacity if it wants to raise the biodiesel blending rate beyond 40%
  • Capacity expected to increase by 1.5b liters in 2025, from current level of 19.7b liters
  • An additional 4b liters are needed to increase biodiesel blending mandate to 50%, the report said, citing a local producers association
• Palm oil stockpiles estimated to increase y/y to 5.3m tons

 

China Q1 pork output rises 1.2% y/y, oversupply pressures persist

China’s pork output rose 1.2% in the first quarter of 2025 from a year earlier to 16.02 million metric tons, helped by a rise in breeding sows last year, pre-holiday slaughter and heavier hog weights.

But analysts warn that the sector remains under pressure, with oversupply and slow demand continuing to weigh on prices and profits.

A total of 194.76 million hogs were slaughtered from January to March, a 0.1% increase from the same period last year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday.

“This quarter’s output growth is driven by sow expansion last year, albeit slowly, effective disease prevention in the winter and higher slaughter weight,” said Pan Chenjun, a senior analyst for animal protein at Rabobank in Hong Kong.

In 2025, production is expected to grow slightly year-on-year, with the sow herd likely to expand slowly as farmers remain cautious amid persistently low prices, while overall demand stays stable, Pan added.

Typically, pork output rises in the first quarter due to increased slaughtering ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday.

China, the world’s largest pork consumer, continues to grapple with oversupply as hog production recovers from African swine fever.

The market’s over-expansion, combined with slowing economic growth, has driven down prices and squeezed margins across the livestock sector

In February, an industry researcher warned that China’s pork consumption had likely peaked, advising companies to hold off on expanding breeding sow capacity and instead focus on cutting costs and improving efficiency.

Authorities have taken steps to curb oversupply – Beijing in 2024 lowered the national target for normal retention of breeding sows to 39 million from 41 million.

Despite the challenging backdrop, major producer Muyuan Foods 002714.SZ reported a strong turnaround in 2024, posting a net profit of 17.9 billion yuan ($2.44 billion) after losses the previous year. The pork giant expects Q1 earnings to come in between 4.3-4.8 billion yuan.

At the end of March, the country’s pig herd stood at 417.31 million heads, up 2.2% from a year earlier, the data showed.

 

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.