Global Ag News for Apr 18.22

Wheat prices overnight are up 19 in SRW, up 17 1/4 in HRW, up 27 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 8 3/4; Soybeans up 7 1/2; Soymeal down $0.13; Soyoil up 0.83.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 65 1/4 in SRW, up 64 1/2 in HRW, up 47 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 31 3/4; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal down $0.82; Soyoil up 4.25.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 121 1/2 in SRW, up 144 3/4 in HRW, up 97 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 59 1/2; Soybeans up 74 3/4; Soymeal down $5.00; Soyoil up 9.08.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 45% in SRW, up 46% in HRW, up 19% in HRS; Corn is up 35%; Soybeans up 27%; Soymeal up 12%; Soyoil up 42%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans down 4 yuan; Soymeal up 15; Soyoil up 86; Palm oil up 292; Corn up 4 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 172 ringgit (+2.66%) at 6640.

There were changes in registrations (-33 Soybeans). Registration total: 2,185 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 0 Corn; 99 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 154 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 14 were: SRW Wheat up 395 contracts, HRW Wheat up 546, Corn up 12,448, Soybeans down 1,687, Soymeal down 658, Soyoil up 7,153.

Northern Plains Forecast: Another system moved through over the weekend with scattered rain and snow showers and heavier snow across North Dakota, which should have snow cover around for quite some time before it melts away. That will keep temperatures colder for most of the region even without the snowpack. A system moving through this coming weekend may dump more snow on the region.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above to well above normal Friday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday, above to well above normal Friday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Saturday, below normal west and above normal east Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Canadian Prairies Forecast: Days 1-3: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Wednesday. Days 4-5: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers east Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Thursday-Friday. 6-10 Day Outlook: Scattered showers east through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures below to well below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

 Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near to above normal through Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near to above normal through Friday.

The player sheet for 4/14 had funds: net sellers of 7,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
• CORN SALE: South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has bought an estimated 69,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in an international tender which closed on Thursday
• WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries bought a total of 114,645 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that closed on Thursday.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase 47,120 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat, traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers was April 11, they said. A separate tender from Bangladesh for 50,000 tonnes of wheat closed on April 4.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said it would seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by July 31 and arrive in Japan by Sept. 29, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on April 20.

China sells 531,469 tonnes of wheat at state reserve auction

China sold 531,469 tonnes of wheat, or 96.43% of the total offer, at an auction of state reserves on April 13, the National Grain Trade Center said on Monday.

Fitch Says Food Prices Now Intensifying Global Inflation Pressures

FITCH SAYS FOOD PRICES NOW INTENSIFYING GLOBAL INFLATION PRESSURES

FITCH SAYS UKRAINE WAR HAS PUSHED UP GLOBAL FOOD PRICES TO HISTORICALLY HIGH LEVELS, INTENSIFYING INFLATION DYNAMICS

FITCH SAYS RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT HAS WORSENED OUTLOOK FOR SUPPLY OF KEY GRAINS

FITCH SAYS EXPECT EM TO FACE HIGHER INFLATION RATES GIVEN WEIGHT OF FOOD IN CPI BASKETS, DEPENDENCE ON WHEAT IMPORTS FROM RUSSIA, UKRAINE

March soybean crush at 181.759 million bushels, below average estimate

The U.S. soybean crush rose in March to the highest level on record for the third month of the year, while stocks of soybean oil fell to the lowest since November, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Friday.

NOPA members crushed 181.759 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 10.1% from the February crush of 165.057 million bushels and up 2.1% from the 177.984 million bushels processed in March 2021. It was the largest March crush on record among NOPA members.

The crush had been expected to rise to 181.991 million bushels, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts. Estimates ranged from 179.200 million to 186.000 million bushels, with a median of 181.558 million bushels.

Soy processors had ample supplies of soybeans on hand to crush last month, taking advantage of good margins and strong demand for processed soymeal, analysts said. Many processors also chose to keep crush rates high ahead of spring maintenance downtime expected in the coming weeks and months, they said.

NOPA said soyoil supplies among its members as of March 31 were 1.908 billion lbs. The stocks were down 7.3% from the 22-month high of 2.059 billion lbs at the end of February and up 7.7% from stocks totaling 1.771 billion lbs at the end of March 2021.

Soyoil supplies at the end of March were expected to have risen to 2.072 billion pounds, according to the average of estimates gathered from eight analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.960 billion to 2.144 billion, with a median of 2.077 billion.

French Soft-Wheat Ratings Steady in Week to April 11: AgriMer

The share of France’s soft-wheat crop rated in good or very good condition held at 92% as of April 11, even with the prior week, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• Corn was 8% planted, versus 4% the prior week
• Compares to 16% at this time last year

 Truckers in Argentina end protest that threatened grains transport -ministry

Argentinian truckers agreed on Thursday night to call off a strike that had paralyzed grains transport in the country since Monday, the transport ministry said.

Truckers represented by the Federation of Argentine Carriers (FETRA) had been demanding higher freight rates and talks with the government on Wednesday failed to make progress. A source close to the talks told Reuters that “it was finally resolved with an (increase of) 20% and the immediate lifting of the strike”.

Nearly 85% of grains in Argentina are transported to ports by truck, and the strike threatened grain exports in one of the world’s top food exporters.

“After almost four hours of meeting, an 11% reference rate agreement was reached until the month of March,” the source said. There was further discussion over April rates and a total of 20% was agreed, the person said, declining to be identified citing lack of authority to provide details on the negotiations.

Argentina registered a monthly inflation rate of 6.7% in March, elevating the annual inflation rate to 55.1%.

FETRA has also complained about fuel shortages at a time when there is increased demand for moving soybean and corn crops.

China to auction 500,000 tonnes of imported soybeans on April 22

China will sell 500,000 tonnes of imported soybeans from its state reserves on April 22, the National Grain Trade Center said in a notice on its website on Friday. The sale is aimed at alleviating tight supply in the domestic market.

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Truckers’ strike in Argentina and high demand raise soy oil prices

Soy oil prices have increased sharply this week in both the domestic and the international markets, reflecting concerns about transport in Argentina due to a truckers’ strike in the country. International demand has been firm too, helping to push up quotations. Besides, recent oil valuations, which encourages the blend of biodiesel to diesel oil, influenced the price rises for soy oil too.

In Brazil, export premiums rose high in the last days, even for deals closed until mid-2022. Thus, FOB export values (Paranaguá, PS) for shipment in the next quarter surpassed USD 1,800.00/ton on some days this week. In the national spot market, the quotations for soy oil (São Paulo, with 12% ICMS) rose by 4.4% between April 7 and 13, to BRL 9,074.10/ton on Wednesday, 13.

Abroad, the valuation of soy oil is also linked to the USDA’s estimates released on April 8, which forecast world consumption to be a record in the current season (2021/22), at 60.23 million tons. Brazil is expected to ship 1.82 million tons of soy oil, 44.61% more than that in the previous season and the highest amount since 2011/12.

SOYBEAN MEAL – The domestic sales of soybean meal have not been as high this week. With the firm demand for soy oil, the supply of soybean meal tends to increase, discouraging consumers to purchase large volumes.

It is important to highlight that the world consumption of soybean meal is expected to set a record in the current season too, estimated by the USDA at 247.49 million tons. European Union, the major importer of this by-product, is expected to purchase 16.55 million tons, the highest volume since 2018/19.

SOYBEAN – With more agents from Brazilian processors and more importers interested in purchases, liquidity increased in the national market of soybean in the last days. However, the dollar depreciation against the Real and the disinterest of sellers constrained deals – some farmers have been more interested in selling corn rather than soybean.

Between April 7 and 13, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá increased by 0.8%, to BRL 183.65 (USD 39.19) per 60-kilo bag on Wednesday, 13. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná rose by 0.6%, to BRL 178.99 (USD 38.20)/60-kilo bag on Wednesday. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices increased by 1.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and by 1.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). On the other hand, the US dollar dropped by 1.2%, closing at BRL 4.6860 on April 13.

According to agents consulted by Cepea, 40% of the soybean crop has been traded in the Brazilian market, much less than that in previous years. With the severe crop failure in southern Brazil, the farmers from the remaining regions of the country expect demand to increase in the coming months.

According to the USDA, the Brazilian output of soybean is estimated at 125 million tons in the current season, the lowest since 2018/29. On the other hand, domestic consumption is forecast at 50.49 million tons, a record. The USDA also estimates the Brazilian exports of soybean to grow by 1.35% compared to that last season, to 82.75 million tons.

CORN/CEPEA: With disinterested purchasers, prices continue to drop in Brazil

Corn prices are still fading in most Brazilian regions surveyed by Cepea. This scenario reflects majorly the absence of purchasers in the market – these agents have been buying small amounts, expecting values to drop steeper. As for sellers, local harvestings are leading some of these sellers to close deals.

Between March and April 13, on the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn prices dropped by 11.9% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and by 9.8% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). In Campinas (SP), the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index has been fading for nine days, closing at BRL 87.56 per 60-kilo bag on Thursday, 13, 1.7% lower than that on April 7. The monthly average in April is currently 10% lower than that from March.

CROPS – The development of the second crop of corn is considered satisfactory in most region, without any negative report so far. Thus, agents expect the harvest to set a record, estimated at 88.53 million tons. If this scenario is confirmed, Brazilian consumers may have some relief regarding domestic supply, besides raising exports.

According to data from Seab/Deral, by April 12, crop activities had ended, and 97% of the crops in Paraná were in good conditions and 3%, in average conditions. The harvesting of the summer crop is advanced in southern Brazil. In PR, 92% of the crops had been harvested by April 12, according to Seab/Deral. In Rio Grande do Sul, activities have been slower, due to rains. By April 13, 80% of the corn crops in the state had been harvested.

Ukraine Raises Forecast for Spring Planting Area to 14M Ha

Ukraine’s farmers will be able to sow spring crops on total area of more than 14m ha, down 17% from last year, according to estimates from Agriculture Ministry published on its website.

• Thus ministry improved its forecast, as in early April it expected 13.4m ha to be planted
• Sowing has started in all but one regions, excluding Luhansk, if not to mention annexed Crimea
• Total areas already planted include:
  • 146,400 ha under spring wheat
  • 742,900 ha under spring barley
  • 122,600 ha under corn
  • 433,700 ha under sunflower
  • 20,900 ha under soybean

India’s Wheat Exports May Total 10M-15M Tons in 2022-23: Goyal

India, the world’s second-biggest wheat producer, is likely to export 10m to 15m tons of wheat in the year that started in April, Piyush Goyal, food and commerce minister, said Friday.

• Indian wheat exporters will visit Egypt to meet buyers, Goyal said at a press conference in Mumbai
• India wants the World Trade Organization to relax norms for wheat exports from govt stockpiles
• The nation aims to be a permanent exporter of wheat

Russia Grain Union Says Discussing Boosting Egypt Shipments

Russian Union of Grain Exporters is “in constant dialogue” with Egypt about boosting shipments, union’s head Eduard Zernin says by e-mail, confirming earlier comment to Agroexport journal.

One of the options is direct sales under contracts bypassing tenders, which could be strengthened by moving to national currency

Sime Darby to Turn Palm Oil Mills Into Food Safety Facilities

Sime Darby Plantation will transform all its 33 palm oil mills in Malaysia into certified food safety facilities by the end of 2023, according to a statement Monday.

• After Malaysia, the same standards will be implemented across operations in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands
• Mill transformation is part of Sime’s larger plan to “re-imagine and reinvent” its oil palm plantation operations and to deliver food-safety assurance to customers
• Immediate priority is to achieve food safety compliance outlined by Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, or HACCP
• NOTE: Mills process palm fruits collected from estates into unrefined palm oil and other derivatives, which are then used as ingredients for refineries to produce various consumer food products

Cargill Suspends Palm Oil Purchases From Malaysia’s Sime Darby

Cargill Inc., one of the word’s biggest agricultural traders, stopped buying palm oil products from Sime Darby Plantation Bhd. after the U.S. said it found indicators of forced labor in the Malaysian grower.

Cargill has suspended all new sourcing of palm oil and derivative products from Sime Darby since Feb. 25, the world’s biggest oil palm planter by acreage said in an emailed response to questions. Sime did not give a reason for the halt but said that it is in talks with Cargill, who is a direct customer, on the move.

Some of Malaysia’s biggest palm and rubber-glove producers have been under scrutiny in recent years over allegations of migrant worker abuse. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection in late January said it would seize Sime’s palm oil and related goods as it has sufficient information to determine that the company’s products were made using convicts, forced or indentured labor.

Ukrainian Railways limit exports of some food staples – consultancy

Ukraine’s state-owned railway company has temporarily restricted the transportation of some agricultural goods through border crossings to Poland and Romania, consultancy APK-Inform said on Saturday.

It gave no reason for the restrictions.

Ukraine, a major agricultural producer, used to export most of its goods through seaports but since Russia’s invasion has been forced to export by train via its western border.

APK-Inform said restrictions on the movement of goods to Poland through Yahodyn have been put in place from April 16 to April 18.

There are also restrictions on the transportation of cereals, oilseeds, grains and other food products through Izov to the Polish towns of Hrubeszew and Slawkov.

From April 16 until further notice, there are restrictions on the export of grain and seeds to Romania through the Dyakovo and Vadul-Siret crossings, the consultancy said.

The railway company was not available for immediate comment.

Ukrainian agriculture minister Mykola Solskyi said this week the main task of the ministry was to find alternative ways to export Ukrainian grain. The country has millions of tonnes of various commodities available for exports.

Solskyi also said 1.25 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds were on commercial vessels blocked in Ukrainian seaports and may soon deteriorate.

Before the war, Ukraine exported up to 6 million tonnes of grain and oilseed a month. In March, exports fell to 200,000 tonnes.

 

New bird flu cases identified in Pennsylvania and Utah, USDA says

New bird flu cases were detected in a commercial chicken flock in Pennsylvania and a backyard flock in Utah, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Saturday, with the outbreak now having spread to more than 30 states in the country.

The department said earlier this month it was looking into vaccines as an option to protect poultry against deadly bird flu as the country faces its worst outbreak since 2015. The current outbreak has wiped out well over twenty million chickens and turkeys in commercial flocks since February. (Full Story)

“Samples from the Pennsylvania flock were tested at the Pennsylvania Veterinary Laboratory and samples from the Utah flock were tested at the Utah Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory, both part of the National Animal Health Laboratory Network,” the USDA said in a statement on Saturday.

Federal and state officials were working jointly on additional surveillance and testing in areas around affected flocks, the USDA said.

The recent highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) cases do not present an immediate public health concern, U.S. authorities said.

Previously, the United States has eschewed vaccines, worried that importers will ban U.S. poultry shipments because they cannot distinguish infected birds from vaccinated ones. The United States is the world’s second-largest poultry meat exporter. In 2020, the value of U.S. poultry and poultry product exports to the world reached $4.2 billion.

Bird flu has hit poultry in Europe and Asia in addition to North America, and the USDA is working with other countries on options for vaccines.

Trading has suffered, as importers like China have blocked imports from many U.S. states with outbreaks.

 

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Rose 16% Last Week

 

U.S. Grain Movement by Rail Up 1.5% Week Ended April 6