Global Ag News for Apr 24.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Paraguay soybean production up amid favorable late season weather

2024/25 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 10.2 [9.0-10.7] MILLION TONS, UP 5% FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Paraguay soybean update is raised by 5% from our previous estimate to 10.2 million tons amid review of growing-season conditions and supported by favorable weather that boosted late-season yield outcomes and harvest progress across key producing soybean croplands in the southeastern Oriental region. Over the past 30 days, precipitation levels in the key producing regions were below normal, creating favorable conditions for accelerating harvest progress.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, down 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 6 1/4; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil up 0.30.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 20 in SRW, down 22 3/4 in HRW, down 14 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/4; Soybeans up 8 3/4; Soymeal down $3.90; Soyoil up 0.30.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 8 1/4 in SRW, down 22 3/4 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 17 3/4; Soybeans up 28 1/4; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil up 3.25.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.4% in SRW, down 4.2% in HRW, down 1.1% in HRS; Corn is up 3.4%; Soybeans up 4.9%; Soymeal down 5.3%; Soyoil up 21.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 43 yuan; Soymeal up 11; Soyoil up 34; Palm oil up 62; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is down 1.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 1 ringgit (-0.02%) at 4036.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 360 Soybeans; 1,359 Soyoil; 1,170 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 23 were: SRW Wheat down 8,215 contracts, HRW Wheat down 36, Corn down 12,470, Soybeans up 637, Soymeal down 16,641, Soyoil down 7,371.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 23 APRIL 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Widespread warmth remains anticipated across most of North America during the next 1-2 weeks
• SOUTH AMERICA: Warmth between 2-3 °C above normal is expected to persist across most of Brazil through the next 1-2 weeks, with the largest anomalies in the Southeast during the next 5 days
• AUSTRALIA: Wet weather will prevail across Southeast Australia during the next 10 days, while closer to normal conditions are expected elsewhere
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Widespread cool and wet weather will prevail across Thailand during the next 10 days, which may hinder sugarcane harvest efforts to some degree

 

Northern Plains: Limited showers continue for a couple of days before another system clears out the showers on Thursday. More widespread showers should return over the weekend with another system moving through. Rainfall amounts will maintain overall decent topsoil moisture for most of the region and could be heavy enough this weekend to reduce some of the drought. Cooler temperatures will be in place most of the week, but should increase over the weekend before falling briefly behind the system early next week. Soil temperatures should be increasing regardless, allowing for some more planting to get done in areas that aren’t so chilly or wet.

Central/Southern Plains: The southwestern Plains, and especially western Kansas, have been rather dry lately. That would be concerning, but multiple fronts and systems are forecast to move through the region going into early May, which may bring some of these drier areas some needed rainfall. If they get missed too often, winter wheat conditions will continue to fall. The multiple rounds may also limit spring planting in some areas as well.

Midwest: Recent heavy rainfall in parts of the region have eased drought and increased soil moisture, but also are causing limitations to planting. Multiple systems and fronts will move through the region to close out April and start May in a busy overall pattern that could continue these planting concerns. However, the region will also see some dry days between systems and could be enough time to get out and do some work for those that aren’t too wet.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A front is stalled in the region, bringing periods of showers through at least Friday and probably through the weekend. Some areas remain too wet for much planting and the rain moving through this week will not be helpful. The Mississippi River remains in flood stage along most of the path through the region, though water levels are starting to fall across the north. The rainfall this week could stall that progress in some areas.

Brazil: Scattered showers have been moving through much of central Brazil over the last week, favorable for maintaining soil moisture for safrinha corn in most areas. Showers have been limited early this week, but should pick up in intensity and coverage as a front goes by Thursday and Friday. Another should go through late this weekend into next week, extending the wet season while corn finishes pollination and begins the fill period. After a scare of dry conditions for April, much of the region has received near or above normal rainfall, favorable for the corn.

Argentina: Drier conditions have favored the continued harvest. A couple of fronts will move through this week, but showers again look limited and mostly favorable for fieldwork. The country would prefer for rainfall to come at least somewhat regularly to maintain soil moisture for winter wheat, which will start to be planted in May.

Europe: Scattered showers have been moving through Europe fairly regularly over the last week and continue this week as well. That has favored winter wheat development, but also produced some delays to planting. However, most areas now have good soil moisture outside of the northeast, which needs more rain. Rainfall this week will largely miss those drier areas in the northeast and the pattern should be quieter and milder next week. Poland especially could have more concerning weather conditions, at least for the time being.

Black Sea: Conditions have been good for planting, but not for plant growth. Limited showers will continue to move through this week, but a front moving through this weekend will usher in some cooler temperatures and more dry conditions for next week. Overall, it’s still poor weather conditions for wheat growth.

Australia: Many areas are still dry and need more rain despite some recent showers. A front will bring through some areas of showers the rest of the week, but more areas will be missed than hit and will need more rain for wheat and canola planting and establishment. Western areas have been more favorable with periodic rainfall.

 

The player sheet for 4/23 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought over 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender.
• BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender seeking up to 120,000 tons.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase about 80,000 metric tons of rice
• CORN, BARLEY AND SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal.
• WHEAT TENDER: The offer deadline in an international tender from a state grains buyer in Syria to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat was amended to April 21.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of three analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending April 17.

• Corn est. range 800k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 1,075k
• Soybean est. range 300k – 700k tons, with avg of 463k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 5% to 25.481M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 26.643 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.033m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.007m

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 14.3 Million Metric Tns In April Versus 14.5 Million Tns Seen In The Previous Week – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 14.3 MILLION METRIC TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 14.5 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.4 MILLION TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 2.4 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Brazil soy lobby defends modernization of soy moratorium

A case pending before Brazil’s Supreme Court gives the soy industry a chance to improve the “soy moratorium,” an agreement that banned purchases of the oilseed from deforested Amazon areas after a cutoff date in 2008, said Andre Nassar, head of Brazil’s soybean traders lobby Abiove, on Wednesday.

Speaking before the Senate’s agriculture committee, Nassar cited a Supreme Court case that will determine if a law passed by Mato Grosso state removing tax incentives for signatories of the soy moratorium is constitutional.

“The solution is not to end the moratorium. Nor to keep it the way it is,” he told legislators and groups representing farmers who want to end the moratorium. “Something different has to be done.”

Conservationists and scientists have praised the soy moratorium for slowing deforestation in the Amazon. But the voluntary agreement has been under growing pressure from farmers lobbies interested in expanding plantings to meet rising demand for the soy produced in Brazil, the world’s largest exporter.

“We propose that the moratorium ceases to be an imposition and becomes an option for farmers,” Fabricio Rosa, president of national soy and corn farmers’ lobby Aprosoja Brasil, told the committee. “There are farmers who opened up their properties (to plant soy) before 2008 and who could comply with the non-deforestation requirements.”

Abiove has defended the soy moratorium, previously saying it strove to balance the demands of farmers and consumers. However, it conceded in December that state lawmakers including from Mato Grosso have pushed legislation that would “significantly harm” the moratorium signatories.

The moratorium is enforced by a working group including representatives of trading companies, environmental advocacy groups and the government.

In meetings of that group, Greenpeace said grain traders had proposed changing the moratorium rules to distinguish between individual soy fields, letting growers export from one part of a farm while planting soy on newly deforested areas nearby. That proposal was never adopted.

The soybean planting area in the Amazon biome has grown exponentially to 7.8 million hectares (19.274 million acres) in the 2023/2024 soy season from 300,000 hectares (741,316 acres) 25 years ago, Nassar said.

The expansion, despite soy moratorium rules, has benefited soybean farmers and the industry, he claimed.

“Thank heavens,” Nassar said. “The soy moratorium allowed it to happen. It created a market for this soy.”

 

Egypt Expects to Import 4.5M Tons Wheat in 2025-26: Minister

Egypt’s government expects to import 4.5 million tons of wheat in the 2025-2026 fiscal year that starts in July, Supply Minister Sherif Farouk says in a text message.

• The government expects to pay $270-$280 per ton for the grain
• Country expects to buy 3.5m tons-4m tons of wheat from local farmers
• Next fiscal’s government wheat imports will come in lower than the 4.8 million tons so far in current year.
• Current wheat stockpiles are sufficient through July 22: Farouk
  • Vegetable oil stocks adequate for 3 months; Sugar inventories enough for more than 14 months

 

U.S. corn production slightly down on poor soil moisture across central Corn Belt

2025/26 U.S. CORN PRODUCTION: 393 [374–412] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 U.S. corn production is fractionally lowered to 393 [374–412] million tons, given the current abnormal dryness across the main Corn Belt and its potential adverse impact on early season crops, though a decent soil moisture recovery is expected in the coming days amid steady planting progress. Our current estimate puts planted area at 94.3 million acres, up 4.1% from last season, which is 1 million acres below the USDA’s March estimate of 95.3 million acres in its Prospective Plantings report (31 March). A recently released Reuters Poll of Analysts (25 March) placed U.S. corn crop area at 94.4 [92.5–96.6] million acres. The next USDA survey-based estimate of acreage will be released in the 30 June Acreage report.

Early corn planting normally begins during early April and ends in May, while soybean planting windows tend to be from mid-April through June, offering U.S. farmers more time/room for acreage decisions. U.S. farmers often book seed purchases in January/February, but this season a considerable uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariff plans has prompted some delay. Soybeans are deemed to be more vulnerable to the ongoing trade disputes/reciprocal tariffs than corn, as U.S. exports near half of its soybean crop while the majority of its corn is domestically consumed. As the trade war between the U.S. and its major soybean importer China intensifies, more U.S. farmers will likely switch to corn as soy demand falls, barring any drastic/immediate changes in rising ethanol production for corn use and/or expanding soybean crush capacities. Corn should simply be the safer option with more upsides over soy, with its higher price/cost advantage and overall lower/tighter global supplies compared to soybeans.

USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (21 April) put total national-level corn planting pace at 12%, on par with last year’s 11% and the five-year average of 10%. The past two weeks brought mostly favorable weather for corn sowings to begin. Essentially all major grain and oilseed producing areas of the country saw near to above normal temperatures, with areas in the western Plains seeing the highest deviations of up to 5 °F. Rainfall patterns were more mixed, with above-average totals seen in the Mississippi Delta, and in scattered portions of southern Plains and lower Midwest. Overall, weather allowed sowings to begin in earnest, albeit with some minor, rain-induced delays in the mid-Atlantic regions. At the moment the biggest risk factor lies in the status of soil moisture throughout the main Corn Belt, which has been hovering around at least 6-year lows since February. In Illinois and Iowa, the top two corn producing states in particular, the overall soil moisture levels are alarmingly low, warranting close attention despite seemingly decent sowing pace so far. Fortunately, most crop areas of the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest could see rather wetter conditions starting next week, which should provide some relief while not hindering early season activities too much.

 

WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER COULD PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA IN MAY

What to Watch:

• Dry weather likely to dominate the South America forecast next month
• High likelihood of warmth in Brazil, lean towards cool weather in Argentina

MAY WEATHER OUTLOOK

Crop Impacts:

Brazil: The combination of widespread warm and dry weather in Brazil during May would have mixed impacts on different crops throughout, acting favorably for 1st corn and soybean harvest progress, while being largely unfavorable for 2nd corn development. The dry weather, if verified, may also benefit wheat plantings as well as the coffee harvest in the Southeast. That said, soil moisture conditions are already near 6-year lows in the Southeast, and continued dryness may further raise concerns for softs crops development.

Argentina/Paraguay: Cool and dry conditions are expected in Argentina and much of Paraguay during May. This would favor harvest progress throughout if verified.

Temperature Outlook: The forecasted temperature anomalies for May in South America (Figure 1) feature the potential for Widespread warmth across Brazil, and cool conditions across Argentina as well as portions of Paraguay and Uruguay. This pattern is generally supported by the top analogs (Appendix 1) and probability map (Appendix 3). The latest EC extended run as well as the EC Seasonal run for May show warmth across most regions, with the highest confidence in Brazil. That said, both models do show warmth in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, decreasing confidence for cool weather in those regions. However, confidence is high for a warm forecast in and around Brazil during May.

Precipitation Outlook: The forecasted precipitation anomalies for May in South America (Figure 2) favor widespread dry weather across most of the continent. The main exceptions are far northwest Brazil and Rio Grande do Sul in far southern Brazil.  This pattern is supported by a consensus among the top analogs (Appendix 2) and probability map (Appendix 4). The latest EC extended run depicts dry weather in Northeast and Southern Brazil, increasing confidence in the forecast there, while the latest EC seasonal run for May shows dry weather in Southern Brazil. Neither of these show any large areas of high precipitation during the next month.

 

WEATHER FAVORABLE FOR PARAGUAY CORN DURING HARVEST SEASON

Over the past 30 days, dry weather conditions across the key crop areas of the southeastern Oriental region supported steady harvest progress for Paraguay corn. The USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s maintained their estimate for 2024/25 Paraguay corn production at 5.2 million metric tons in their most recent report (released on 10 April), unchanged from their initial estimate.

 

 

 

 

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