Global Ag News for Apr 27.23

TOP HEADLINES

Indonesia Tightens Palm Oil Export Ratio After Ramadan Holiday

Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil shipper, adjusted its export policy for the commodity in a bid to meet the dual objectives of safeguarding supplies to the domestic market and maintaining exports.

• The government cut the so-called basic ratio for controlling the flow of palm oil exports to four times the volume companies are required to sell on the domestic market from six times, with effect from May, according to Kasan, head of trade policy agency at the trade ministry.
• At the same time, it is lowering the monthly volume for domestic sales to 300,000 tons, from 450,000 tons, he said in a press briefing on Thursday.
• Indonesia Reviews Palm Oil Export Policy for Post-Ramadan Period
• Government to allow 3 million tons of previously frozen export quotas to be used gradually over the next nine months.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 1/2 in SRW, down 10 1/4 in HRW, down 10 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $2.30; Soyoil down 0.78.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 38 in SRW, down 53 1/4 in HRW, down 42 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 18; Soybeans down 39 1/4; Soymeal down $18.10; Soyoil down 1.76.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 69 in SRW, down 88 3/4 in HRW, down 94 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 38 1/4; Soybeans down 66 3/4; Soymeal down $36.20; Soyoil down 3.90.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 21.7% in SRW, down 11.8% in HRW, down 14.8% in HRS; Corn is down 5.5%; Soybeans down 5.8%; Soymeal down 11.1%; Soyoil down 19.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 23) Soybeans down 17 yuan; Soymeal up 18; Soyoil up 36; Palm oil down 48; Corn down 7 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 110 ringgit (-3.08%) at 3460.

There were changes in registrations (-5 Soyoil). Registration total: 2,389 SRW Wheat contracts; 23 Oats; 11 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 598 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 26 were: SRW Wheat down 2,706 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,190, Corn down 25,445, Soybeans down 26,104, Soymeal down 7,172, Soyoil down 1,170.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Delta Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

The player sheet for 4/26 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 750 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Two groups of South Korean flour mills bought around 77,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States and 50,000 tonnes from Australia in international tenders on Wednesday
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 75,000 tonnes of soft wheat in an international tender on Wednesday.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Iraq’s state grains buyer is believed to have purchased about 150,000 tonnes of wheat expected to be sourced from Australia in an international tender restricted to a limited number of participants which closed on Wednesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 43,500 tonnes of rice
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat for shipment to two ports only
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.

TODAY Canada to Plant 27M Acres of Wheat, 21.6M of Canola: StatsCan

Canadian farmers anticipate a 6.2% increase in wheat acres from last year, according to Statistics Canada’s principal crop areas report.

• Analysts were expecting 26.4m acres, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey, with a range of 25.5m-28.4m acres
• Canola planting to rise by 0.9% y/y to 21.6m acres
• Survey avg was for 21.8m acres, range 20.9m-22.3m acres

Brazil 2023-24 Soy Crop May Rise to 159m Tons on Area Expansion

Soybean production in the world’s largest exporter may increase to a fresh record from 152.5m tons in the current season, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service says in a report dated April 25.

• Planted area seen rising 3.9% to 45.2m ha
• Avg yield seen steady at 3.51 tons/ha
• Soybean exports seen rising 3% to a record of 98.1m tons
• Crushing may increase by 5% to 55.8m tons
  • Soy meal production estimated at 41.6m tons, up from 41m tons in 2022-23, while exports may rise 1% to 20.5m tons
  • Soy oil output seen at 11m tons, up from 10.4m tons

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rise 9.7% Y/y; Corn Imports Are Up 72%

The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 have reached 25m tons, compared with 22.8m tons a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Morocco (3.99m tons), Algeria (3.53m tons) and Nigeria (2.12m tons)
• EU barley exports were 5.09m tons, compared with 6.65m tons
• Corn imports stand at 22.6m tons, against 13.1m tons
• NOTE: Due to technical issue, data is until April 22, Commission says

UN Says Ukraine Crop Shipment Inspections Continue on Thursday

Inspections under the Black Sea grain deal are going ahead, a spokesperson for the joint coordination center in Istanbul said on Thursday.

• NOTE: Ukraine said on Wednesday that Russian representatives had failed to agree on schedules on Tuesday, disrupting shipments

Egypt Soybean Oil Production Forecast to Rise 15% in 2023-24

Egypt’s soybean oil production is forecast to rise by 15% in the marketing year beginning October 2023 through September 2024, the U.S. Agriculture Department said late Monday.

Soybean oil production is expected to rise to 460,000 metric tons in 2023-24, compared with 400,000 tons in the current marketing year due to slightly higher crushing capacity, the USDA said in its annual Egypt’s Oilseeds and products report.

In the current marketing year, production has been revised down from 783,000 tons estimated a year earlier due to less beans imported for crushing, it said.

Soybean oil consumption is expected to reach about 730,000 tons in 2023-24, up from 710,000 tons in the current year, it said.

Consumption is expected to increase due to greater amounts of higher-quality cooking oils being blended with soybean and sunflower oils and then channeled through the country’s subsidy program, it said.

Egypt’s soybean oil imports in 2023-24 are expected at 360,000 tons, down from 400,000 tons in the current year as a slightly higher local production of soybean oil is expected to offset imports, the USDA said.

USDA attaché forecasts Australia 2023/24 wheat crop at 29 million T

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Canberra:

“After a record-setting winter crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Australia is expected to produce a more subdued, but still strong grain crop in MY 2023/24. Favorable conditions around the time of winter grain planting across most production regions of Australia bodes well for the establishment and early growth of wheat and barley in MY 2023/24. However, with predicted dry conditions in the coming months, production is expected to be down from the last three years of bumper winter crops. Wheat and barley exports are forecast to decline from a record volume of wheat, and near record for barley, estimated this year. Sorghum production and exports are forecast to decline in MY 2023/24 after making big gains in the previous two years, including record exports. Rice production in MY 2023/24 is forecast to grow by around one-third from the prior year. With the forecast production recovery, Australia is expected to return to becoming a net exporter of rice in MY 2023/24 for the first time since MY 2017/18. ..FAS/Canberra forecasts wheat production to decline significantly to 29 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2023/24, but if realized would still be a relatively large crop. This follows a record-breaking 39.2 MMT crop in MY 2022/23, and a 36.2 MMT crop in MY 2021/22.”

Ukraine Plans to Boost Danube Cargo Shipments This Yr: Minister

Ukraine plans to boost cargo shipments via the Danube to at least 20 million tons this year, from 16 million tons in 2022, Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said Wednesday evening on Facebook.

• Danube ports of Reni, Ismail and Ust-Dunaysk are operating near maximum capacity
• Modernization and construction of new terminals may boost shipments
• Kubrakov sees need for at least $120 million of investments

Cargill Plans to Boost Soy Crush, Biofuel Production in Brazil

• Company seeks to boost investments amid logistics woes
• Brazil to cement position as top corn exporter, CEO says

Cargill Inc., the world’s top agricultural commodities trader, plans to boost investments to increase its soybean processing, biofuels output, storage and export capacity in Brazil.

The firm also is strongly looking for investments at ports and to modernize and increase capacity of its warehouses, according to Paulo Sousa, who heads the company in Brazil. The country accounts for more than half of global soy supplies and production is expected to keep rising.

Increasing Brazil’s capacity is key to easing concerns of supplies for food and renewable fuel. Argentina, which used to be the world’s largest exporter of soymeal and soyoil, has struggled with drought and economic issues. Meanwhile, the lack of storage and logistic problems in Brazil has increased price volatility this year.

US Fertilizer Prices Ramping Up as Farmers Head Into Fields

A spike in spring fieldwork and near-term demand caused fertilizer supplies to tighten at New Orleans and inland, contributing to higher prices for urea, phosphates and potash. China’s return to the global market, with excess supply in tow, looks increasingly likely in late 2Q.

Demand Surge, Tight Supply Lift Fertilizer

Heavy demand and tight supply pushed urea, phosphates and potash higher at New Orleans (NOLA) and inland this week. NOLA urea shot up to well over $400 a short ton (st) vs. $338-$390 last week. Corn Belt urea was at or near the $500/st mark, up $50-$75, while diammonium phosphate (DAP) jumped to the upper-$700s/st, reflecting an $80 increase at some locations. Potash prices firmed $30-$40/st in the Corn Belt and Southern US, with supply outages reported at numerous warehouses. Not all products rose, however, with urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and ammonium sulfate prices slipping in the southern US and another decline expected for Tampa ammonia in May.

 

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