Global Ag News for Apr 28.2025

TOP HEADLINES

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Dollar decrease and high supply in South America press down values

The decrease of 3% of the US dollar this week limited soybean trades in the spot market in Brazil, as this scenario led some producers to be away from closing deals.

The high soy availability in the 2024/25 season can indeed favor sales from Brazil to China in case the trade war with the United States continues.

Prices in the spot market, in turn, dropped this week due to the low liquidity and to the progress of the harvesting in both Brazil and Argentina. Not even increases of FOB prices at ports and of export premiums were enough to sustain values.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) dropped 1.1% from April 16-24, to close at BRL 135.13 per 60-kg bag on April 24. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) decreased 2.3% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 129.06 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices moved down 1.7% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 1.3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) in the same comparison. The US dollar decreased 3.2% against Real between April 17 and 24, closing at BRL 5.683 on April 24.

BYPRODUCTS – On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soymeal prices downed 1.3% between April 17 and 24. The Brazilian value of soy oil averaged BRL 6,698.84 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on April 24, for a decrease of 0.3% against that on April 16.

CROPS – Conab indicates that 92.5% of the area had been harvested up to April 19, surpassing the 86.8% registered in the same period of 2024. In Argentina, crop activities reached 14.5% of the 18.4 million hectares, and the output remains projected at 48.6 million tons – data from Bolsa de Cereales.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 8 3/4 in SRW, down 9 3/4 in HRW, down 6 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/2; Soybeans down 5; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil down 0.55.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 16 1/4 in SRW, down 23 in HRW, down 13 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/4; Soybeans up 12 3/4; Soymeal down $2.00; Soyoil up 0.94.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 14 1/4 in SRW, down 28 3/4 in HRW, down 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 17 3/4; Soybeans up 26; Soymeal down $1.10; Soyoil up 3.87.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.6% in SRW, down 5.6% in HRW, down 1.7% in HRS; Corn is up 3.4%; Soybeans up 4.8%; Soymeal down 5.8%; Soyoil up 22.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 47 yuan; Soymeal down 43; Soyoil down 90; Palm oil down 92; Corn up 20 — Malaysian Palm is down 96.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 96 ringgit (-2.37%) at 3961.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 360 Soybeans; 1,359 Soyoil; 1,170 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 25 were: SRW Wheat up 6,309 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,847, Corn down 72,095, Soybeans down 16,168, Soymeal down 23,161, Soyoil down 3,290.

The player sheet for 4/25 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 7,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 235,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico including 130,000 tons for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year that began Sept. 1, 2024, and 105,000 tons for delivery in the 2025/26 market year.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCOPIA) purchased about 60,000 metric tons of food-standard corn in a tender earlier this week
• BARLEY PURCHASE: State-owned Iranian animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender this week.
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: A state grains buyer in Syria is still considering price offers in an international tender to buy about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat which closed this week with no purchase yet made.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase about 80,000 metric tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Argentina, Brazil or South Africa

TODAY

Strategie Grains keeps EU rapeseed crop forecast, trims sunseed

Consultancy Strategie Grains kept unchanged its forecast for 2025/26 European Union rapeseed production for a third straight month, while reducing slightly its outlook for the EU’s next sunflower seed crop.

The consultancy still sees production of rapeseed, the EU’s main oilseed crop, reaching 19.0 million metric tons next season, 13% above the 2024/25 volume.

Sunseed production was now projected at 10.5 million tons, down from 10.6 million expected last month but still around 26% higher than this season.

The forecast EU soybean crop in 2025/26 was trimmed to 3.1 million tons from 3.2 million expected last month, though this would be 3% above this season’s output.

In a summary of its EU oilseed report, Strategie Grains did not give reasons for its latest estimates but it has previously pointed to better growing conditions for rapeseed than last year, when heavy rain hurt crops.

Japan mulls buying more US corn as part of tariff talks, Nikkei reports

Japan is considering increasing its corn imports from the United States as part of trade negotiations over President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, the Nikkei reported on Friday.

The U.S. exported $2.8 billion worth of corn to Japan in 2024, to counter an 80% drop in exports to China.

Hiroshi Moriyama, a ruling Liberal Democratic Party heavyweight, told reporters earlier in the day that increasing soybean and corn imports from the U.S. would be possible as Japan has limited capacity to produce them domestically.

Japan is also weighing similar concessions for rice imports, Japan’s Yomiuri daily reported last week.

Meanwhile, Trump told reporters on Friday that his administration was very close to a tariff deal with Japan.

Japan’s tariff negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, is scheduled to visit the U.S. from April 30 for a second round of talks with his counterpart, after previously requesting a revocation of the tariffs.

CORN/CEPEA: Low demand and high supply keep prices dropping

Corn purchasers continue away from closing trades, expecting better opportunities. Sellers, in turn, are flexible about quotations, especially because of good expectations for the second crop, since most areas have presented a good development, favored by the rainfall.

As a result, corn prices continue to move down, and trades are moving at a slow pace. It is worth noting that the low liquidity has been verified despite the fact that corn quotations are more attractive than soy prices.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) moved down 2.3% between April 17 and 24, closing at BRL 81.6 per 60-kilo bag on April 24.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, from April 17-24, corn values dropped 0.3% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 1.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

EXPORTS – Secex data indicate that 123.09 thousand tons were shipped in 13 producing days of April, more than the 66.13 thousand tons registered in April/24.

At the port of Paranaguá (PR), corn quotations decreased 1% between April 17 and 24. The US dollar moved down 2.1%, closing at BRL 5.683 on April 24.

CROPS – As second crop planting activities have finished in Brazil, farmers have their eyes on crops conditions. Conab indicated that the rainfall helped areas in Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Paraná, Mato Grosso, Tocantins, Maranhão and Piauí.

The summer crop harvesting is at 68.2% of the area, more than the average over the last five years (2020-2024), of 63.4% – data from Conab.

In Paraná, the area harvested hit 98% up to April 22, according to data from Seab/Deral. As for Santa Catarina, activities reached 95.7% of the total – data from Conab until April 19. In Rio Grande do Sul, the harvesting hit 89% up to April 24 (Emater).

US Beef Production Falls 3.4% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

US federally inspected beef production falls to 486m pounds for the week ending April 26 from 503m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter down 3.6% from a week ago to 555m head
• Pork production up 2.5% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 2.5%
• For the year, beef production is 2.1% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 2.4% below

US Poultry Slaughter Rose 2.9% Y/y in March: USDA

Slaughter rose to 5.57 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s monthly poultry slaughter report released on the agency’s website.

• Chicken live weight rose 4% in March from year ago
• Chickens condemned post-mortem down 0.6% y/y
  • Condemned ante-mortem up 9.7% y/y

DRY WEATHER WILL FAVOR THE CORN/SOYBEAN HARVEST ALONG THE ARGENTINA PAMPAS INTO MAY

What to Watch:

• The Argentina Pampas will remain dry as far as the eye can see, facilitating the corn/soybean harvest
• Warmth will moderate over Brazil in early May, while a round of high rainfall along Central-West and Southeast Brazil will persist to the benefit of crops
• A moderating outlook through the next 15 days in Paraguay will have neutral impacts on the corn/soybean harvest

FORECAST

DISCUSSION: The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is likely to emerge back into a positive phase event throughout the course of the 15-day forecast. This will support the potential for cool/wet weather in Brazil, and dry conditions over Argentina toward mid-May. On numerical model performance, the EC has recently outperformed the GFS in South America. Therefore, the EC is the preferred forecast model. Numerical model performance has been declining of late, making for a low confidence 15-day outlook.

ARGENTINA/PARAGUAY: Oscillating temperatures and largely dry weather will impact Argentina/Paraguay through the next couple weeks. Temperatures through 5 days will be up to 1 °C cooler than normal along the Argentina Pampas, while areas to the north through Paraguay will average out near normal. A warming trend will then arrive across Argentina during the 6-10 day forecast, though the 11-15 period will likely bring widespread cool conditions to both countries. The frontal activity will focus rains on western Paraguay, as 15-day totals there will be 15-35 mm (~0.6-1.4 in) wetter than normal, while the rest of Paraguay and Argentina will be 25-50 mm (~1-2 in) drier than normal instead. There is no end in sight to Argentina dryness toward mid-May in a very favorable outlook for the corn/soybean harvest on balance.

BRAZIL: Warm and wet weather will prevail over Brazil into the foreseeable future, especially on the rainfall aspect. Temperatures through 5 days will be 2-4 °C above normal nearly everywhere, with the warmest anomalies in the Southeast region. A widespread cooling trend will then arrive in the 6-10 forecast, though it will be temporary as warmth is likely to return by the 11-15 day period. This will lead to an active regime, with 15-day rainfall totals 25-50 mm (~1-2 in) wetter than normal along a zone from Mato Grosso in the north through Sao Paulo in the south, while areas to the north and south from there will be comparably drier than normal instead (see figure below). Toward mid-May, cooler temperatures may return, but high rainfall is expected to continue to the benefit of 2nd crop corn development, and rains will also be favorable for coffee/sugar crops in Southeast Brazil.

Dry weather expected across Indonesia/ Malaysia’s palm oil belts

What to Watch:

• Dry weather in Indonesia/Malaysia
• Near normal to warm temperatures in Indonesia/Malaysia

Forecast:

Discussion: The  Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will likely develop into a Phase 7-8 event near  the end of the 15-day forecast. This will support dry weather in Indonesia beyond  15 days. On EC/GFS numerical model performance, the EC has recently outperformed the GFS in Asia. Therefore, the EC is the preferred forecast model and improving performance in recent days makes for a high confidence 10-day outlook.

Near normal to warm temperatures are expected across Indonesia and  Malaysia during the 15-day outlook. Dry weather (10-60 mm below normal) is expected across Indonesia/Malaysia  except Sabah/north Kalimantan (20-60 mm above normal) during the 15-day outlook. Dry weather is expected across Indonesia/Malaysia’s palm oil belts.

 

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