Global Ag News for Apr 30.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Argentine soybean sales hit slowest pace in 11 years

Argentine farmers’ soybean sales hit the slowest sales pace in 11 years despite the easing of exchange controls that President Javier Milei hoped would speed soy sales up, data from the Agriculture Ministry showed on Tuesday.

The oilseed sales reached 24% of the 49 million metric tons estimated for the 2024/25 harvest in Argentina, the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and soybean meal.

The ministry data was collected up to April 23 and showed that during the seven days prior farmers sold 713,800 metric tons of soybeans from the 2024/25 harvest.

Uncertainty regarding the exchange rate and a slow start to soybean harvest due to heavy rains have impacted the soybean sales pace.

Until last week, the oilseed was at its slowest sales pace in the last ten years.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/4 in SRW, unchanged in HRW, up 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 8 1/4; Soymeal down $1.90; Soyoil down 0.17.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 18 1/4 in SRW, down 20 in HRW, down 10 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 15 1/2; Soybeans down 14 3/4; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil down 0.65.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 23 3/4 in SRW, down 39 in HRW, down 11 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6 3/4; Soybeans up 16 1/4; Soymeal down $3.10; Soyoil up 3.77.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.8% in SRW, down 7.9% in HRW, up 1.6% in HRS; Corn is up 0.5%; Soybeans up 3.7%; Soymeal down 5.9%; Soyoil up 22.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 2 yuan; Soymeal down 32; Soyoil down 20; Palm oil down 56; Corn up 5 — Malaysian Palm is down 37.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 37 ringgit (-0.94%) at 3906.

There were changes in registrations (300 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 190 Corn; 360 Soybeans; 1,359 Soyoil; 1,170 Soymeal; 644 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 29 were: SRW Wheat down 458 contracts, HRW Wheat up 5,902, Corn down 77,413, Soybeans down 41,415, Soymeal down 22,684, Soyoil down 896.

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 29 APRIL 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Very heavy rainfall is expected across the south-central U.S. during the next 10 days, with the largest anomalies (up to 5 in above normal) in and around northern Texas
• SOUTH AMERICA: Widespread warmth between 2-4 °C above normal is expected across Argentina during the next 1-2 weeks
• BLACK SEA: High rainfall is expected across the Northwest, Central, and Volga districts of Russia through 10 days, while closer to normal totals are expected across most other Black Sea regions during this time
• EAST ASIA: A split temperature pattern is expected in China through 10-15 days, with warmth across the majority of regions, and cool weather confined to the North/Northeast

SPLIT PRECIPITATION PATTERN TO HAVE MIXED IMPACTS TO U.S. CROPS IN EARLY MAY

What to Watch:

• Warmth to prevail, though largest anomalies will shift around early in May
• Largely mixed precipitation pattern ahead

 Discussion:

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is expected to remain in a positive phase event during the next two weeks, which typically results in dry weather in the U.S. Plains and Upper Midwest. The Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) is expected to remain near a neutral level during the same period. On numerical model performance, the EC has been slightly outperforming the GFS on temperature and precipitation forecasts across the Midwest U.S. as of late.

Forecast:

Shifting warmth will be a dominant factor in the North American forecast during the next 10 days. The warmest anomalies through 5 days (5-10 °F above normal) will be observed in British Colombia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan, as well as bordering parts of the U.S. The Atlantic U.S. will also observe similar warmth, with locally higher anomalies up to 12 °F above normal. Northern Texas and surrounding areas are likely to be 2-6 °F cooler than normal during this time. Moving into the 6-10 day period, nearly all of Canada, the northern U.S. Plains, and the Northwest U.S. will experience continued warmth between 5-10 °F above normal, while the Southern Midwest, Mississippi River Delta, southern U.S. Plains, and Southwest U.S. experience a brief cool-down with temperatures between 2-6 °C below normal. As for precipitation, high rainfall is expected in Texas, Oklahoma, western Kansas, and eastern Colorado, with 10-day anomalies between 25-100 mm (~1 to 4 in) above normal. Very high totals up to 150 mm (~6 in) above normal are also possible in and around Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Maryland. The eastern Midwest is likely to pick up more moderate totals, while the Western Midwest and surrounding Plains states are likely to be drier than normal. Beyond 10 days, the latest EC extended run depicts warm and dry weather prevailing through much of the next 4 weeks. Overall, wet weather where observed should continue to favor wheat development and long-term soil moisture reserves, while likely hindering spring fieldwork, while the opposite is true for drier regions to the north.

Brazil: A front will move north and out of the primary growing areas by Wednesday, but continue rainfall for northern areas into the weekend. This should be considered the end of the wet season, generally on time this year. The barrage of fronts over the last few weeks has kept soil moisture favorable for corn but also for winter wheat planting that will start up in May. Additional fronts may move into southern areas next week to continue building moisture for wheat.

Argentina: Very little rainfall is forecast this week, with some showers over northern areas on Friday, which should continue to be favorable for fieldwork. Some areas are getting a bit too dry for winter wheat planting that will start up in May but fronts moving through next week could provide some better moisture.

The player sheet for 4/29 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 21,500 corn, sellers of 8,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 120,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Spain for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year that began Sept. 1, 2024.
• SOYBEAN SALES: The USDA also confirmed private sales of 110,000 tons of U.S. soybeans to undisclosed destinations for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced optionally from the United States, South America or South Africa in an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought an estimated 132,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Wednesday
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) also purchased about 50,000 to 65,000 of animal feed wheat to be sourced from worldwide origins in a private deal without issuing an international tender.
• BARLEY TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains buyer issued a restricted tender to purchase an estimated 25,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat
• RICE TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase about 80,000 metric tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria was still considering price offers in an international tender to buy about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat which closed this week with no purchase yet made.

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending April 25 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.025m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 25.622m bbl vs 25.481m a week ago

CROP SURVEY: US March Soybean Processing Before USDA’s Report

The following is from a Bloomberg survey of six anlaysts.

• Soybean crush seen at 205.9m bu in March, an 1.2% rise from a year ago
• Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of March seen at 1.94b lbs, down from 2.369b
• Corn used in ethanol production seen down 2.6% y/y to 459.9m bu

Australia Wheat Harvest for 2025/26 Seen Smaller Y/y: USDA FAS

Production of wheat in Australia is forecast at 31m tons in the 2025-26 season, down 3.1m tons on the season before, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report.

• It is “primarily driven by a reduction in harvested area, particularly in drought-affected parts of South Australia and western Victoria”, along with a modest decrease in yields y/y
• Exports are projected at 23m tons for the market year, down from 26m tons the year before
  • NOTE: Australia’s market year starts in October
• Barley production is forecast at 12.5m tons, down y/y but 6% above the 10-year average
  • Exports seen at 6.5m tons for the  market year, slightly below previous season
• Sorghum production is expected to rise slightly to 2.5m tons in market year 2025/26, marking the fifth consecutive year of above-average output

SovEcon Raises 2025-26 Russian Wheat Export Est. to 39.7m Tons

SovEcon increased its forecast for Russia’s 2025-26 wheat exports by 0.6m tons amid a better outlook for the upcoming harvest, the consultancy said in a note.

• NOTE: The increase follows SovEcon earlier this month raising its crop outlook, and comes even as Russia has faced a cold snap
• For the 2024-25 season, it slightly increased its forecast for wheat exports to 40.7m tons, from 40.5m tons, due to a small acceleration in shipping volumes recently
• Still, “exporters continue to operate under pressure, with margins remaining negative since late last year,” SovEcon said
• Demand is also slowing as buyers begin to shift toward new-crop purchases

Malaysia April Palm Oil Exports Rise to 1.087m Tons: AmSpec

Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose to 1.087m tons in April from 1.049m tons in March, according to AmSpec Agri.

Palm oil exports rose 3.6% m/m versus +3.92% in March

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Drop 34% Y/y During Season to April 27

EU soft-wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 17.5m tons as of April 27, compared with 26.6m tons for the same period last year, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include with Morocco 2.46m tons, Nigeria with 2.41m tons and Algeria with 1.42m tons
• Barley exports were at 4.1m tons, down 21% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 17.1m tons, up 11% y/y

Brazil Soy Exports Seen At 13.8 Million Tns In April – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 13.8 MILLION METRIC TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 14.3 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.1 MILLION TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 2.4 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC

Kazakhstan exports 7.5 mln tonnes of newly harvested grain – Agriculture Ministry

Kazakhstan had shipped 7.5 million tonnes of newly harvest grain for export between the start of the agricultural year on September 1, 2024 and April 27, 2025, the Agriculture Ministry’s press service said.

This is 60% more than in the same period of the previous agricultural year.

Exports to Uzbekistan rose by 35% from 2.0 million tonnes to 2.7 million tonnes; to Tajikistan by 50% from 718,000 tonnes to 1.076 million tonnes,; to Afghanistan by 33.8% from 201,000 tonnes to 269,000 tonnes; and to Kyrgyzstan twofold from 88,000 tonnes to 178,000 tonnes.

Export volumes to Iran surged 16-fold from 54,000 tonnes to 871,000 tonnes, and to Azerbaijan they soared 111-fold from 5,000 tonnes to 557,000 tonnes.

Kazakhstan harvested over 26 million tonnes of grain in 2024.

Mexico to Boost Seed Production, Food Security

The Mexican government has announced the creation of a new state-owned company, Seed Production for Well-Being (PROSEBIEN), aimed at increasing the production of certified seeds for key staple crops. The move is part of a broader strategy to enhance food security and reduce dependency on imported seeds.

The decree establishing PROSEBIEN outlines the company’s mission to support small and medium-sized producers by providing easy and affordable access to certified seeds. The initial focus will be on the production of beans and rice, key crops in Mexico’s agricultural landscape. By prioritizing the cultivation of certified seeds, PROSEBIEN aims to improve crop yields, increase competitiveness, and help achieve national food sovereignty.

The company will play a pivotal role in Plan México, a national initiative designed to enhance food self-sufficiency by 2030. PROSEBIEN’s targets include increasing bean production to 1.2 Mt and rice production to 450,000t by the end of the decade. The introduction of certified seeds is expected to significantly boost the percentage of cultivated land using high-quality seeds, contributing to higher productivity and improved market competitiveness for farmers.

In addition to increasing domestic seed production, PROSEBIEN will work to reduce the country’s reliance on imported seeds. This initiative is aimed at ensuring a more reliable and sufficient supply of seeds, aligning with Mexico’s long-term goals for agricultural self-sufficiency and food security. The company will be based in Calera, Zacatecas, on the site of the former National Seed Producer (PRONASE), which was dissolved in 2007, limiting the state’s ability to enforce a comprehensive national seed production policy.

The creation of PROSEBIEN will support farmers in regions such as Nayarit and Zacatecas, where many small-scale producers struggle to access quality seeds. By providing access to certified seeds, the program aims to support the country’s agricultural recovery and strengthen its domestic production capabilities.

 Decent precipitation is needed to boost Russian winter wheat production

2025/26 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 79.5 [77.9-84.5] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent dry weather conditions keep 2025/26 Russian wheat production at 79.5 [77.9-84.5] million tons (MMT). Our estimate consists of 54.1 MMT of winter wheat and 25.4 MMT of spring wheat and does not include the occupied Ukrainian Oblasts.

The past two weeks featured warm weather conditions in the main wheat producing Districts. Precipitation surpluses (15-20 mm above normal) were noted in Stavropol and Perm Krai, Vologda and Tomsk Oblasts, replenishing soil moisture levels. However, soil moisture deficits remain in Central, Southern, and Volga District, raising concerns for winter wheat crops development. Spring wheat planting has started strongly amid supportive planting weather.

Moving forward, the latest weather forecasts indicate cool and relatively dry conditions over the next two weeks, especially in the European parts. Cold risks with potential late frost events and drought concerns threaten Russian winter wheat production.

US Ruling on Key Herbicide Import Draws Alarm From Corn Farmers

US International Trade Commission decision affirming that Corteva Inc. was hurt by imports of the herbicide known as 2,4-D will hinder American farmers, according to the National Corn Growers Association.

• “Corn growers should not be forced to rely exclusively on one domestic supplier,” Illinois farmer and NCGA President Kenneth Hartman said in a statement on Tuesday
  • “Today’s decision threatens to cause availability shortages for 2,4-D that will hamper the work of our farmers, who are facing a tough environment due to a prolonged period of high input costs and low prices”
• Corteva didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment
• NOTE: Supplies from China and India are undercutting Corteva’s product, Cynthia Ericson, vice president of weed control at the company, said in prior testimony before ITC
• NOTE: Tariffs on imports could restrict supplies of the weed killer widely used by US growers, lawmakers have said

Drought in northern China’s wheat belt to worsen, drought relief continues – minister

A drought in northern China’s wheat belt is expected to worsen with no major rainfall forecast for the next ten days, the Water Resources minister said on Tuesday, as it ordered full support for drought relief efforts as the crop enters a key growing period.

“The drought resistance work is severe and the task is arduous,” Li Guoying said at a drought relief meeting on Tuesday according to a statement from the ministry.

China will stabilise production and supply of key agricultural products, ministry says

China will strive to stabilise the production and supply of key agricultural products and enhance regulatory measures to stabilise market expectations, the agriculture ministry said on Wednesday after a meeting.

The ministry said it would continue to support the dairy cattle and beef cattle industries, and regulate hog production capacity in a reasonable manner.

China Looks to Swap Grains in Feed With Kitchen Waste, Insects

China has pledged to churn out more feed products from kitchen waste and insect protein while cutting the use of grains, as Beijing shores up food security amid a full-blown trade war with the US.

The country will by 2030 strive to have at least 10 million tons of production capacity for non-grain resources and increase quality feed grass by more than 40 million tons from 2023, the agriculture ministry said late on Tuesday.

The newly-launched food security campaign to cut back use of grains in the animal farming sector follows Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on American products that have made crop purchases from US, a top supplier, unviable. Still, the country has the world’s biggest hog herd and it’s unclear how quickly such measures can curb grain demand.

China also aims to reduce the percentage of grains used in animal feed to about 60%, and of soybean meal down to about 10% by 2030, according to a document published on the website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

The world’s top soybean importer has for years been trying to cut its use of soybean meal in animal feed to reduce reliance on imports, especially from the US. The efforts have intensified since the trade war in US President Donald Trump’s first term but China’s soybean imports still reached a record in 2024.

China has limited purchases of other grains including corn, wheat and sorghum since last year, to bolster domestic prices and protect local farmers’ interests. Shipments to the Asian country have plunged, according to customs data.

USDA to replace Cornell’s Mann Library as host of government data archive

The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects to stop posting crop and livestock reports on Cornell University’s Mann Library website once the government develops an alternative for its online archive, an official with USDA’s statistical agency said on Tuesday.

The USDA is working on “another solution” to store public archived crop data, Troy Joshua of the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service said on Tuesday during a public data users’ meeting held online.

“We are still working with Cornell to develop a timeline on exactly when (the archive) will be going away,” Joshua said during the meeting.

The USDA is “trying to modernize our processes,” Joshua told the meeting. “We realize how valuable it (the archive) is and we want to make sure that those services remain and continue,” he said.

Cornell’s Mann Library hosts the USDA’s online Economics, Statistics and Market Information System (ESMIS), which contains more than 2,100 archived reports from five USDA agencies. The Mann Library developed and maintains the ESMIS website, according to the USDA.

While the USDA issues crop and livestock reports on its own websites, the Mann Library site serves as an archive for past reports, as well as a backup source at the time of release.

The Mann Library site includes archived editions of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports — a key reference for the grain trade — dating back to 1973, as well as reports on quarterly U.S. grain stocks, cattle on feed, and weekly U.S. crop progress reports, among other topics.

 

 

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