Global Ag News For April 1.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Localized soy harvest delays persist in eastern Brazil

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 178.1 [175.4–180.8] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Brazil soybean production is trimmed slightly (<1%) to 178.1 million tons, with the harvest nearing completion on schedule in the Central-West, while localized delays continue in parts of the Southeast and Northeast. A record-high yield/production outlook is sustained. Our current median estimate is slightly below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 180 million tons (released on 10 March), which assumes total soy sowings at 49.4 million hectares and a national level yield of 3.64 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 48.8 million hectares and 3.65 tph, respectively). Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has lately pegged its total soybean production and area at 177.8 million tons and 48.4 million hectares, respectively (released on 13 March).

Most of Brazil’s soybean growing regions experienced improved weather over the past two weeks, with overall drier conditions compared to February and early March. As of 28 March, Brazil’s soybeans were 74.3% combined nationally according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (released on 30 March), still behind last year’s pace of 81.4% but slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 72.4%. Harvest season is wrapping up on schedule in most top Central-West producing states such as Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, but some local delays persist across the rest of the crop regions including São Paulo/Minas Gerais (in the Southeast) and Maranhão (in the Northeast), warranting continued attention. Nonetheless, this season’s national-level soybean yield and production remain well on track for a record-breaking year.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 11 in SRW, down 14 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 4; Soybeans down 5 1/2; Soymeal up $0.90; Soyoil down 0.87.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 in SRW, down 10 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/2; Soybeans up 6; Soymeal up $2.90; Soyoil up 0.24.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 19.5% in SRW, up 20.9% in HRW, up 13.6% in HRS; Corn is up 3.0%; Soybeans up 13.1%; Soymeal up 8.0%; Soyoil up 40.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans up 24 yuan; Soymeal down 20; Soyoil up 24; Palm oil up 64; Corn up 10 — Malaysian Palm is down 60.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 60 ringgit (-1.24%) at 4768.

There were changes in registrations (-16 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 93 Oats; 641 Corn; 523 Soybeans; 1,536 Soyoil; 197 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 31 were: SRW Wheat down 5,988 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,102, Corn up 6,588, Soybeans up 9,917, Soymeal up 971, Soyoil down 5,821.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 31 MARCH 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Cold temperatures will expand southward from the Northern Plains this week across most U.S. crop regions over the weekend, though such conditions should be short-lived with minimal crop impacts
• SOUTH AMERICA: Heavy rains, including some localized flooding risks, will prevail over Argentina through the next 10 days, slowing and potentially damaging the corn/soybean harvest
• AFRICA: Dry weather that arrived in recent days will prevail through the next 10-15 days along the Ivory Coast, negatively impacting cocoa flowering
• AUSTRALIA: Widespread warmth will dominate across Australia during the next couple weeks, though Queensland flooding will be unfavorable for sugar development
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is likely to develop into a Phase 7 event toward late April, which will support potential cold risks over North America, Central/Eastern Europe, and the Black Sea Region, while it would also favor high rainfall along West Africa by that time

 

A LARGELY WARM AND VERY ACTIVE U.S. WEATHER PATTERN WILL CARRY THROUGH EARLY APRIL BEFORE CHANGES MAY ARRIVE

Weather Anomaly Severity: High (significant warmth this week)

Crops impacted: Wheat, Corn, Soybeans

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: High throughout the next 15 days

Model Change (from previous update): Wetter in most areas

Significant weather anomalies and crop impact:

• Temperatures through 5 days will be 5-10 °F colder than normal from the Northern Plains through Minnesota, while most other areas to the south/east will be 10-20 °F warmer than normal.
• Colder conditions will expand over most U.S. crop regions during the 6-10 day outlook, but warmth to some extent is expected to return by the 11-15 day period.
• 15-day precipitation totals will be 25-100 mm (~1-4 in) wetter than normal spanning most U.S. crop areas, with the heaviest totals along a zone from eastern Texas northward through Wisconsin.
• The Southeast U.S. will be the lone region 25-50 mm (~1-2 in) drier than normal through the next couple weeks.
• A colder and drier weather pattern may overtake most of the country during the back half of April.
• Upcoming rains will be favorable for winter wheat development and will boost soil moisture levels across the Corn Belt ahead of spring plantings.

 

Northern Plains: Some showers went through on Monday and more are forecast for the rest of the week as two more systems move through the region through Saturday. While scattered showers will be welcome, it will include areas of snow and maybe some ice. It will be difficult to get any early fieldwork done this week. Temperatures will be colder as well.

Central/Southern Plains: The region will be active with fronts and systems moving through Saturday. Multiple rounds of precipitation are expected, but they will not hit all areas and are likely to miss the southwest where drought has quickly been growing over the last couple of months. Though conditions are mixed, this is not a good situation for most winter wheat areas. Northern areas could be in for some accumulating snow on a couple of occasions, and winds will be strong on some days this week as well. Overall, this is a poor week to get any fieldwork done.

Midwest: Three different systems and their fronts will continue periods of showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week. Some heavy rain will occur, increasing soil moisture for planting and easing dryness, but may make it difficult to get out into the fields this week. Some bursts of colder air should be enough to allow for some accumulating snow and freezing rain over northern areas Wednesday night and Thursday, and again Friday and Saturday.

Delta: Dryness and drought are a major concern as spring planting increases in April. A front will move in on Thursday and another will go through this weekend. Despite chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms, it will not be enough to reduce drought for too many areas.

Brazil: Wet season showers in Brazil became isolated over the weekend and continue to be so through the weekend. The country needs more consistent heavy rainfall during the last month of the wet season for a good safrinha corn crop. But the forecasts are not favorable for that. They are more favorable for what remains of the soybean harvest, though.

Argentina: Isolated showers became heavy over southern Brazil this weekend, helping to increase soil moisture as crop conditions have largely stabilized. A slow-moving front will keep showers going for much of the week across the central and south before moving north this weekend. Rain will be somewhat favorable, but only for late-planted crops as the early season corn harvest continues to march on and early-planted soybeans have started to be harvested as well.

Europe: A system continues to produce scattered showers around the eastern Mediterranean for the rest of the week, boosting moisture for winter crops. Other areas of the continent will be drier for the rest of the week. Northeastern areas have seen a few showers, but need more. Meanwhile, Spain has been a bit drier, allowing them to recover from heavy rain over the winter. More active weather is expected next week.

Black Sea: Waves of scattered showers continue in the region as a pair of systems move through. With soil moisture mixed around the region, the showers will be helpful as wheat continues to green up and thoughts turn toward spring planting.

China: Scattered showers have been moving through the Yangtze River Valley lately, favoring some canola areas, but many wheat areas on the North China Plain have been drier since the winter. Showers continue to target central and southern China for the next few days, but a system will move through on Friday and Saturday with some needed precipitation for northern areas.

 

The player sheet for 3/31 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 15,000 corn, buyers of 7,500 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group purchased about 50,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal on Tuesday without an international tender being issued, European traders said.
• WHEAT SALE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 metric tons of soft wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, European traders said.
• WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 60,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: US Feb. Soybean Processing Before USDA’s Report

The following is from a Bloomberg survey of four anlaysts.

• Soybean crush seen at 215m bu in Feb., a 13.4% rise from a year ago
• Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of February seen at 2.598b lbs, up from 1.924b
• Corn used in ethanol production seen up 0.1% y/y to 422.1m bu

 

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending March 27 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.105m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 27.068m bbl vs 27.17m a week ago

 

CROP TENDER: Tunisia Buys 100k Tons of Wheat at About $275/Ton

Tunisia’s state grains office purchased 100,000 tons of soft wheat in a tender that closed Tuesday, according to traders who asked not to be identified.

• Soft wheat purchases were as follows:
  • 25,000 tons from Cargill at $274.74 a ton
  • 25,000 tons from Casillo at $275.49 a ton
  • 25,000 tons from Cargill at $274.74 a ton
  • 25,000 tons from Buildcom at $274.73 a ton
• Shipment was sought for May 15 to June 10

 

Russia’s March Wheat Exports Close to 2024 Record: Rusagrotrans

Russia’s wheat exports in March could be as high as 4.85m tons, according to the analytical center of railway operator Rusagrotrans.

• Shipments are “expected to come close to the 2024 record of 4.89m tons” for the month
• That’s up from last week’s forecast of 4.65m tons and well above the five-year average of about 2.9m tons
• Russia’s July-March wheat exports are seen reaching 37.7m tons, overtaking the previous year’s 36.3m tons in the same period for the first time this season
• Egypt remained the biggest importer, taking 7.6m tons
  • Other top-five buyers included Turkey (5.8m tons), Iran (1.86m tons), Israel (1.67m tons) and Sudan (1.66m tons)
• Snow cover across the Central Federal District is likely to melt by midweek, while in the Volga region it may stay until mid-April
• Localized risks for winter crops from excess moisture remain
  • Weather conditions for the new harvest remain favorable
  • Southern regions are expected to see continued development of winter crops and the emergence of early spring sowings

 

Indonesia to implement B50 programme on July 1, minister says

Indonesia will raise the mandatory blending rate for palm-based biodiesel to 50%, or B50, on July 1 from 40% currently, its senior economic minister Airlangga Hartarto said on Tuesday.

The implementation of B50 – a blend of 50% palm oil-based biodiesel and 50% conventional diesel – is part of a wider government programme to mitigate Iran war risks.

“As part of efforts toward energy independence, the government will implement the B50 policy, effective July 1, 2026,” Airlangga said in a virtual press conference.

The biodiesel mandate in Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil exporter, has propped up palm oil prices in recent years as the rising blend has limited supply to the global market.

The benchmark palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended at 4,829 ringgit ($1,193.52) a metric ton on Tuesday, the highest closing price since December 2024.

Airlangga said B50 implementation will reduce the use of fossil fuels by 4 million kilolitres a year.

 

Indonesia biodiesel feedstock demand to hit 15 million metric tons on B50 launch, association says

Indonesia’s palm oil association said on Wednesday that biodiesel feedstock demand was expected to reach about 15 million metric tons this year, up 2 million tons from last year, after factoring in the B50 palm oil-based biodiesel programme.

The July 1 implementation of B50 – a blend of 50% palm oil-based biodiesel and 50% conventional diesel – this year is part of a wider government programme to mitigate Iran war risks.

The biodiesel mandate in Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil exporter, has propped up palm oil prices in recent years as the rising blend has limited supply to the global market.

Palm oil exports in 2026 are likely to drop to around 30 million tons, said the industry association, known as GAPKI, from 32 million tons last year.

Indonesia exported 4.54 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil in the first two months of 2026, up 36.26% from the same period a year earlier, statistics bureau data showed on Wednesday.

Indonesia has raised its crude palm oil export levy to 12.5% of the CPO reference price from 10%, a Finance Ministry regulation showed last month, a move officials have said is to help cover the cost of the increased biodiesel mandate.

Hadi Sugeng, GAPKI’s secretary-general, told Reuters on Wednesday that despite the move to B50, he expected the palm oil export levy to be maintained as the price gap between palm oil and gasoil was seen narrowing.

Indonesia finances its biodiesel programme using proceeds from the palm oil export levy, as biodiesel is typically more expensive than petroleum diesel.

 

Indonesia’s Jan-Feb palm oil exports jump 36% on year

Indonesia exported 4.54 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil in the first two months of 2026, up 36.26% from the same period a year earlier, statistics bureau data showed on Wednesday.

The shipments were valued at $4.69 billion.

In the month of February alone, Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer of palm oil, exported 2.3 million tons, at a value of $2.4 billion, the bureau said.

The bureau’s data excludes palm kernel oil, oleochemicals and biodiesel. GAPKI, Indonesia’s palm oil association, usually releases its own numbers at a later date, covering more products, and thus has different export figures.

 

Top Cooking Oil Buyer India Slashes Imports as War Hits Demand

India, the world’s largest buyer of vegetable oils, is slashing imports as the war in Iran drives up prices and sparks fuel shortages that are choking demand across the country’s vast food-service industry.

The month-long conflict in the Middle East has upended global energy supply, causing a fuel crunch that’s being felt across Asian economies. In India, shortages of cooking gas LPG are rippling through kitchens, as eateries from Delhi to Mumbai and Bangalore scale back operations or shift to kerosene burners or wood-fired stoves.

With about 40% of the country’s vegetable oil soaked up by hotels, restaurants and caterers, the slowdown in these businesses has caused consumption to fall sharply, especially across urban and mid-sized towns, according to Aashish Acharya, vice president at Patanjali Foods Ltd., one of the country’s top importers. India’s vegetable oil demand is expected to drop by around 250,000 tons to 300,000 tons each month, and will shrink further if the war prolongs and LPG supply for commercial use remains restricted, he said.

“This situation highlights the intricate connections between key geopolitical events and local markets, as well as changes in consumption patterns in India,” he said. Domestic edible oil prices have climbed by as much as 17% over the past month, thanks to currency weakness, elevated freight rates and higher logistics and operating costs, he added.

Vegetable oils are an integral part of Indian diets, and increasing affluence means annual per capital consumption has nearly tripled over the past two decades to about 24 kilograms. The country is the world’s biggest buyer of palm, soybean and sunflower oils, and imports more than two-thirds of its requirements.

Import costs have now risen by about 25%, according to Mayur Toshniwal, president and head of trading at Emami Agrotech Ltd., an Indian vegetable oil importer and processor. “Demand will also reduce at these higher levels,” he said.

Sustained demand destruction could prove a significant and lasting blow for producers, including palm exporters in Indonesia and Malaysia.

India’s vegetable oil imports were estimated to have eased to about 1.2 million tons in March from 1.32 million tons a month earlier, said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, adding that consumption in urban areas would remain impacted for the time being due to the LPG shortage. Import data for March is due for release in mid-April.

The upheaval across food and fuel markets is also seeing more Indians shift to eating at home. Usage of soy, sunflower and rapeseed oils have picked up in households, although overall purchases remain subdued as high prices discourage stockpiling. “Demand has gone hand to mouth, as everyone wants to avoid building inventory at such prices,” said Toshniwal.

 

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 15.86 million tns in March – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 15.86 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 15.87 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.24 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 2.44 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Argentina soybean harvest season around the corner amid volatile weather

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 47.4 [46.2–48.6] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Argentina soybean production remains nearly unchanged at 47.4 million tons, with harvest season immediately around the corner amid unfavorable volatile weather conditions. Short-term forecasts are calling for significant rainfall over the coming days, warranting close monitoring. In March’s WASDE (released on 10 March), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 48 million tons, down from its previous estimate of 48.5 million tons in February. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 48.5 and 48 million tons, respectively.

A continued trend of the wet-east/dry-west pattern largely remained in place over the past two weeks across Argentina’s main Pampas region, as the soybean crop moves past the crucial pod‑fill stage and into early harvest preparation phase. Forecasts indicating the arrival of heavy rainfall later this week warrant attention, as this timing may overlap with maturity, a stage when dry conditions are particularly favored. An influx of moisture at this stage could cause more harm than good, as it may not allow the plants to dry down, failing to prevent mold from moisture build-up while raisi

 

Paraguay well on track for a record soy harvest despite recent volatile weather

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 11.8 [11.4–12.1] MILLION TONS, UP 2% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Paraguay soybean production is raised by 2% to 11.8 million tons, reflecting acceptance of the USDA’s latest area estimates. Harvest is in its final phase and nearing completion on schedule despite recent volatile precipitation patterns throughout March. As such, Paraguay soybean production remains well on track for a record season.

 

US Agriculture, Interior Chiefs Sign MOU to Boost US Beef Supply

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins and Secretary of Interior Doug Burgum sign a memorandum of understanding to support American beef production, according to a USDA statement.

 

Rain, hailstorm lashes Haryana, Punjab; wheat growers fear damage

(PTI) — Rain and hailstorms lashed several places in Haryana and Punjab on Tuesday, raising worries among wheat growers, who anticipated damage to their crop which was ready for harvesting.

In Haryana, Hisar received a rainfall of 7.8 mm, while Rohtak, Charkhi Dadri, Gurugram, Mahendragarh, Palwal and Sonipat witnessed 1 mm, 3 mm, 1 mm, 8 mm, 1.5 mm and 0.5 mm of rainfall respectively, according to a report of the Meteorological Department here.

There were reports of gusty winds and hailstorms lashing in Charkhi Dadri, Rewari and Hisar in Haryana and Ferozepur, Muktsar and Fazilka areas in Punjab.

Maximum temperatures in Ambala, Hisar, Karnal and Mahendragarh were recorded at 33.9, 32.9, 33.2 and 28 degrees Celsius respectively, according to the report.

In neighbouring Punjab, Ferozepur and Fazilka saw 7.5 mm and 2 mm of rainfall.

Maximum temperatures in Amritsar, Ludhiana and Patiala stood at 30.4, 33.6 and 34.8 degrees Celsius respectively.

Maximum temperatures in Fazilka settled at 33.1 degree Celsius and in Ferozepur at 33.2 degree Celsius.

Farmers in hailstorm-hit areas expressed fear that their standing crop would get damaged.

In the Malout area of Punjab’s Muktsar district, farmers pointed out that several agricultural fields in villages were affected because of the adverse weather conditions.

Farmers also said that in some areas, the wheat crop got flattened due to strong winds.

Manjit Singh Rai, president of the Bharti Kisan Union (Doaba), said rain along with hailstorm and strong winds at this stage could affect the wheat crop yield.

He demanded from the state government to conduct a survey of the affected fields for the damaged crops to give compensation to farmers.

The wheat procurement season is set to commence from April 1. Punjab has been given target of procuring 122 lakh metric tonne of wheat.

The MeT department on Tuesday evening said moderate thunderstorm and gusty winds (40-50 km per hour) along with rain are likely over parts of Chandigarh, Mohali, Panchkula and adjoining areas.

The department also predicted thunderstorms, lightning with gusty winds at isolated places in Punjab and Haryana on April 3 and 4.

 

 

 

 

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