Global Ag News For Aug 15.2025

TOP HEADLINES

GIWA raises Western Australia’s wheat harvest outlook by 2 million tons

Western Australia is on track to harvest 2.1 million metric tons more wheat this year than was expected a month ago, an industry body said on Friday, while also raising its estimates for barley and canola production.

The projection by the Grain Association of Western Australia (GIWA) underlines a dramatic improvement in Australia’s harvest outlook after rainfall across most of the country’s cropping zones.

Analysts now expect the national wheat harvest later this year to be near last season’s roughly 34 million tons.

More Australian production would add to ample global supply, which helped drive benchmark Chicago wheat futures to their lowest levels in five years this week.

“There are now few areas in the grain belt with less than 200 mm of year-to-date rainfall,” GIWA said in a monthly crop report.

“The potential for 20 million plus tons of total grain production for Western Australia is there once again.”

GIWA said it now expects Western Australia, the country’s biggest wheat exporting region, to harvest 11.5 million tons of wheat in the 2025/26 season, nearly a million tons less than in 2024/25 but above the five-year average of 11.2 million tons.

Farmers in the region should produce 6 million tons of barley, roughly in line with last season and well above the five-year average of 5.2 million tons, it projected.

The canola harvest should total 3.1 million tons, 235,000 tons more than the year before and above the five-year average of 2.8 million tons.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/4 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 3 1/2; Soymeal up $0.40; Soyoil up 0.12.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 10 3/4 in SRW, down 13 in HRW, down 4 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/2; Soybeans up 44 1/2; Soymeal up $10.20; Soyoil down 0.28.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 18 1/4 in SRW, down 20 1/2 in HRW, down 8 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 14 3/4; Soybeans up 42 3/4; Soymeal up $19.40; Soyoil down 2.49.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.7% in SRW, down 10.0% in HRW, down 3.7% in HRS; Corn is down 17.8%; Soybeans up 1.3%; Soymeal down 7.5%; Soyoil up 30.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 27 yuan; Soymeal down 27; Soyoil down 38; Palm oil down 44; Corn down 15 — Malaysian Palm is up 75.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 75 ringgit (+1.70%) at 4478.

There were changes in registrations (-39 Soyoil, -78 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 590 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 1,543 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 14 were: SRW Wheat down 4,303 contracts, HRW Wheat up 8,739, Corn down 6,778, Soybeans up 10,291, Soymeal up 4,353, Soyoil up 2,248.

 

WET SPELLS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL EUROPE, WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

What to Watch:

• Wet spells in Central Europe and dry in Black Sea region
• Heat risks in Europe and the Black Sea region during the 6-15-day outlook

 

Northern Plains: A front moving into the region will bring sporadic showers through the weekend as it stalls. The front should completely move out early next week. Another system should move through late next week. The rain is favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but could continue to negatively impact wheat quality and harvest.

Central/Southern Plains: Sporadic showers may develop over the next few days before a front moves into northern areas this weekend. Temperatures will be rising ahead of this front and could be stressful to some areas that are still on the drier side. The front will push through next week, bringing showers and a relief in temperature.

Midwest: Temperatures will be rising going into the weekend and could be stressful for some areas that have been a bit too dry in the east. Another front will move into northern areas on Friday and stall through the weekend before moving eastward next week. Some areas of flooding around Minnesota and Wisconsin are going to be possible and temperatures will fall behind the front. Other areas should get chances for at least moderate rainfall, helping with filling corn and soybeans where they hit. However, more areas are likely to get missed and could compound some of the dryness that has occurred in the east.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Isolated showers continue in the region into next week as a weak front stalls in the region, especially across the south. Dry spots are popping up in the region and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. Many areas are getting missed, which could hurt the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as cotton.

Canadian Prairies: Areas of heavy rain over the last week have been favorable for later-developing crops, but have been a negative factor for maturing and early harvest in other areas. Those across the north and east have seen beneficial rainfall to reduce drought and could make for another cutting of hay as we see more rainfall chances through this weekend. More rainfall is expected next week and could set back harvest and quality some more. But it should also help to battle the wildfires across the north.

Brazil: Recent frost across the south may have had some impact on early-developing wheat in a few spots, but overall should not have been all that damaging. Spring planting will begin in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. It will be drier through the weekend, but we could see another front move in next week with showers across the south.

Argentina: Another front should bring another round of colder temperatures this weekend. Wheat should still be vegetative and not be all that impacted from the cold, but will be heading later this month and is in need of some rainfall. A front that goes through next week is more likely to spread beneficial rainfall through the country.

Europe: Hotter and drier conditions will continue in most places through the weekend, though a front moving through may produce some limited showers in a few lucky areas in the northeast over the next couple of days. The hot and dry conditions will put stress on filling corn, but be favorable for the remaining wheat harvest. A more widespread rain event is forecast for next week with a system rolling through most of the continent.

Black Sea: Though some showers moved through northeastern areas, it continues to be very dry for much of the region. A weak system could bring limited showers through this weekend into next week, but coverage is forecast to be awfully low. More reports of drought stress continue to pop up on social media as harvest continues for wheat and corn continues to fill. Good weather has come in short bursts this season, with stress due to heat and dryness more common than not.

Australia: A front brought another wave of good rainfall through Western Australia on Wednesday, but will struggle to produce rain across the east, continuing a recent trend in rainfall. Isolated showers may develop in the east this weekend too, but they need more rain. Though wheat conditions are improving in the west, they’ve been more stagnant and fair in the east. Wheat and canola in the southeast should get into their reproductive stages later this month and could use some more rain in which to do so.

China: A front will continue showers in portions of central China for the next few days and another disturbance is forecast for the weekend with some more favorable rain chances for filling corn and soybeans. Central China has endured more instances of heat and dryness than other areas of the country and could really use the rain. Areas in the northeast have had more consistent rainfall and variable temperatures, with largely favorable weather for corn and soybeans there.

 

The player sheet for 8/14 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,500 soyoil.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 755.4K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 1.96M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Aug. 7.

• Corn sales fell to 1,959k tons vs 3,334k in previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 723k tons vs 738k in previous week
• Soybean sales fell to 755k tons vs 1,013k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 7, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 541k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: South Korea with 130k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 7, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Japan bought 6.5k tons of the 21.2k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases and pork purchases

 

CROP SURVEY: US July Soybean Crush Seen at 190.8M Bushels

Projections are based on a survey of up to eight analysts conducted by Bloomberg News on Aug. 13-14.

• Soybean crush seen 4.3% higher vs July of last year, and an increase of 2.7% vs a month ago
• Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.332b lbs vs 1.499b a year earlier
• The National Oilseed Processors Association is scheduled to release its monthly report on Aug. 15.

 

NOPA July US soybean crush estimated at 191.590 million bushels

The U.S. July soybean crush likely increased slightly after a dip in the processing pace in June, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association report due on Friday.

NOPA members, who handle more than 95% of all soybeans processed in the U.S., were estimated to have crushed 191.590 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from eight analysts surveyed by Reuters.

If realized, the total would be up 3.4% from a June crush of 185.270 million bushels and up 4.8% from the July 2024 crush of 182.881 million bushels. It would also be the biggest July crush on record.

The estimate implies a processing rate of 6.180 million bushels a day, which would be up from a 6.176-million-bushel daily pace in June but still the second-slowest daily crush rate since September, according to NOPA data.

New plant openings and processing plant expansions have swelled U.S. crush capacity to record levels this year as processors rush to meet demand for soyoil for making renewable fuels.

Some plants have idled for seasonal maintenance ahead of the upcoming U.S. soy harvest, which is expected to be the sixth-largest ever.

Processing rates are due to jump once harvesting begins, and two more oilseed processing plants are scheduled to open before the end of the year, analysts said.

Crush estimates for July ranged from 186.300 million to 195.750 million bushels, with a median of 192.100 million bushels.

The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Friday.

Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of July 31 were projected at 1.380 billion pounds, based on estimates from six analysts. The figure, if realized, would be down 0.3% from stocks totaling 1.384 billion pounds at the end of June. Oil stocks estimates ranged from 1.300 billion to 1.500 billion pounds, with a median of 1.359 billion pounds.

 

Brazil Aug. Soybean, Corn, Cotton Crop Estimates: Conab

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 134.6m tons
• Yield seen higher at 6,320 kg/ha vs 6,122 kg/ha last month
• Area planted raised to 21.68m ha vs 21.559m ha last month
• Soybean production est. raised to 169.7m tons vs 169.5m tons

 

Strong Crops Seen in Iowa, Says AgResource — Market Talk

Corn and soybean crops growing in Iowa are coming in strong, with little else needed in the way of water, say analysts with AgResource who toured fields in northern and eastern Iowa this week. The fields they saw corroborate the record sizes that the USDA projected in its WASDE report this week, they say. “We did not find any real pollination issues with corn,” says Ben Buckner of AgResource. Buckner says they found big corn ears and damp soil that likely does not need any more water for the rest of the year, as well as strong soybean fields. “It’s hard to walk in the soybean fields because they’re so thick,” says Buckner, speculating that the USDA may need to again raise its outlook for average soybean yields

 

Canada looking at support for canola farmers hit by China tariffs, says Carney

Canada is focusing on a series of measures to support canola farmers hit by China’s latest tariffs, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Thursday, but did not give specific details.

In a post on X, Carney also said Ottawa would advance a constructive dialogue with China to address trade concerns while diversifying its foreign trade.

 

Ukraine’s Grain Harvest Reaches 24.8M Tons So Far: Ministry

Ukraine has harvested 24.8m tons of grains and legumes so far this season, according to a statement on the economy ministry’s website.

• That’s about 13% below the 28.5m tons collected at a similar time a year earlier
• The grain was collected from 6.2m hectares, which marks about 55% of the total area to be harvested: ministry
• The total includes:
  • almost 19m tons of wheat, versus 21.7m tons last year
  • 4.7m tons of barley, versus 5.5m tons last year

 

Monsoon Rains Recharge Indian Dams, Boosting Winter Crop Outlook

Ample monsoon rainfall in India has helped replenish water in key reservoirs, improving prospects for winter-sown crops such as wheat and rapeseed that mostly rely on dams and groundwater for irrigation.

Winter crop area is likely to rise this year, Farm Secretary Devesh Chaturvedi said. The country could see a record harvest of food grains, including rice, grown during the rainy season as the weather has been conducive, he said.

A bumper output of wheat, usually sown in October and November just after the harvesting of monsoon-sown crops, could prompt the government to ease export restrictions, while a rise in rapeseed production may reduce imports by the world’s biggest buyer of edible oils.

India’s June-September rainy period has been good so far this year, with the northwest, a major grain-producing belt, receiving 15% more rain than normal as of Aug. 13. Water levels in the country’s 161 main reservoirs are now 14.5% above last year and 33% over the 10-year average, according to the state-run Central Water Commission.

“Good weather is certainly benefiting agriculture, but we are also supporting farmers by ensuring the supply of high-quality seeds to boost yields,” Chaturvedi said in an interview on Wednesday. “Higher rainfall not only lifts productivity but also helps farmers spend less on irrigation.”

India’s food grain output is estimated to have reached an all-time high of 354 million tons in 2024-25, including a record rice crop of 149 million tons and wheat output of more than 117 million tons, according to the farm ministry.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 853k tons in the week ending Aug. 9 from 777k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 9% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 27% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $17.92 per short ton, a decline of $0.40 from the previous week

 

 

 

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