Global Ag News For Aug 18.2025

TOP HEADLINES

USDA to build Texas facility to fight flesh-eating screwworms

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will spend up to $750 million to build a facility in Texas that produces sterile flies to fight the flesh-eating livestock pest New World screwworm, Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Friday.

The plan signals increasing worries about the risk of screwworm, a parasitic fly that eats livestock and wildlife alive, to infest U.S. cattle after the pest moved north in Mexico toward the U.S. border.

An outbreak could further elevate record-high U.S. beef prices by reducing the U.S. cattle supply.

“It could truly crush the cattle industry,” Texas Governor Greg Abbott said at a news conference with Rollins.

In Texas, the largest cattle-producing state, ranchers are anticipating the return of screwworm for the first time in decades. The United States eliminated screwworm in the 20th century by flying planes over hotspots to drop boxes packed with sterile flies.

The production plant in Edinburg, Texas, would be located with a previously announced sterile fly dispersal facility at Moore Air Base and be able to produce 300 million sterile screwworm flies per week, Rollins said. Sterile flies reduce the mating population of the wild flies.

Rollins did not say when the plant would open but previously said such a facility would take two to three years to build.

The USDA will spend another $100 million on technologies to combat screwworm while the facility is being constructed and hire more mounted officers to patrol the border for infested wildlife, Rollins said.

The agency halted imports of Mexican cattle in July to keep out screwworm, tightening U.S. cattle supplies already at their lowest levels in decades.

“Those ports don’t open until we begin to push the screwworm back,” Rollins said.

The USDA has also invested in a sterile fly production plant in Mexico that is slated to open next year.

In Panama, a facility breeds up to 100 million sterile flies per week. The USDA estimated 500 million flies must be released weekly to push screwworm back south in Latin America.

“All Americans should be concerned,” Rollins said.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 3/4 in SRW, down 3 3/4 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 4 3/4; Soymeal down $1.70; Soyoil down 0.30.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 13 1/4 in SRW, down 14 1/4 in HRW, down 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 6; Soybeans up 23 1/2; Soymeal up $2.70; Soyoil down 0.31.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 18 1/4 in SRW, down 20 in HRW, down 11 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 10; Soybeans up 48 1/2; Soymeal up $16.80; Soyoil down 1.81.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.0% in SRW, down 10.3% in HRW, down 4.4% in HRS; Corn is down 17.1%; Soybeans up 1.6%; Soymeal down 8.4%; Soyoil up 32.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans up 12 yuan; Soymeal up 10; Soyoil up 50; Palm oil up 200; Corn down 9 — Malaysian Palm is up 51.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 51 ringgit (+1.14%) at 4523.

There were changes in registrations (-67 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 590 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 1,476 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 15 were: SRW Wheat down 3,309 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,129, Corn up 761, Soybeans up 778, Soymeal down 5,858, Soyoil down 6,713.

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through over the weekend, including some heavy rain and severe weather in the Dakotas. Another front will move through on Thursday, but with more limited rainfall. More noticeably, the front will bring through a burst of much cooler air, especially for the Dakotas. Another strong front will move through early next week, with more widespread rainfall again. The rainfall is favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but not for harvesting spring wheat.

Central/Southern Plains: Some isolated showers formed over the weekend while heat built in and caused stress for drier areas. A front will drop through the region over the next couple of days with scattered showers and a nice drop in temperature. Another front will move through late this week and weekend. That will likely have fewer showers, but a better drop in temperature going into next week. Conditions are still largely favorable for most areas in the region.

Midwest: Temperatures were extremely hot across the south and east over the weekend. A front moved in across the north and produced widespread rainfall, including areas of severe weather and heavy rain. Some of that moved southeast through northern Illinois and Indiana on Saturday, with more showers across Missouri on Sunday, easing some of the stress. The main front will push through the region through Wednesday, bringing more scattered showers and a drop in temperature. Another front will move through Friday through the weekend. That front may not bring much rainfall, but should bring a more significant drop in temperature going into next week, reducing stress.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Isolated showers continued in the region over the weekend, especially across the south. Though a couple of fronts will move through this week and weekend, showers are forecast to remain isolated. Dry spots have been popping up and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. Many areas are getting missed though, which could hurt the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as cotton.

Canadian Prairies: Areas of showers moved through over the weekend. Several more waves of showers will move through this week, being an annoyance for maturing crops and harvest. A bigger cold front will move through on Thursday, producing a significant drop in temperature, especially across the east through the weekend. Frosts are not in the forecast, but could be close, which would put an end to the season if they occur.

Brazil: Spring planting will begin in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. A front will move through early this week with widespread and needed rainfall across the south. Another front is forecast to do the same this weekend. Some frosts may occur behind the second front, which would be concerning for advancing wheat.

Argentina: A system will move through the country early this week with widespread rainfall and a drop in temperature. Some frost will be possible across the south, but damage to vegetative wheat is not expected. Another front will move through later this week. Rainfall will be more limited, but the drop in temperature will be more significant, with frosts looking likely across most of the central and southern portions of the country. Wheat may be starting to head in the north, which could see damage should frosts develop this weekend. But cooler temperatures will slow growth regardless.

Europe: Some isolated showers moved through central and southeastern areas over the weekend, which continues in the southeast on Monday. It was also hot, which continued to create stress for developing corn and other spring-sewn crops. Conditions were better for the remaining winter wheat harvest. A system will go spinning through the continent this week with widespread showers from France to Romania. Temperatures will fall behind the system as well, reducing stress.

Black Sea: It continues to be very dry for much of the region. A weak system brought limited showers through this weekend, which continues in a couple of lucky areas on Monday. A system moving through Europe may bring more widespread showers to western areas later this week, but are forecast to become isolated farther east this weekend. Eastern areas have endured more heat and dryness than not throughout the season, which continues to be unfavorable for corn and sunflowers.

Australia: Some isolated showers went through eastern Australia over the weekend, but many areas saw little or no rainfall. The responsible front will produce more widespread rainfall for northeastern areas early this week, which will help to reverse a recent dry trend. Another front will move through Western Australia on Tuesday with another round of good rainfall for an area that has seen crop conditions improving as they start heading. That front will struggle to produce rain for eastern areas later this week which have started to get drier again and could use some more rain as heading starts to come over the next couple of weeks.

China: A front brought some good rainfall to central China over the weekend, which may stick around for several days this week with more rainfall. Central areas have had issues with heat and dryness throughout the season and this rainfall will be very helpful. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions.

 

The player sheet for 8/15 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 8,000 corn, buyers of 6,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 136,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to South Korea for the 2025/26 marketing year on Thursday. USDA also confirmed private sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Spain for the 2025/2026 marketing year on Thursday.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Busan section of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has purchased about 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Thursday seeking up to 70,000 tons sourced only from South America or South Africa.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 45,200 metric tons of rice to be sourced from Vietnam and Thailand.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

NOPA July US soybean crush jumps to 195.699 million bushels, a six-month high

The U.S. soybean crush jumped to a six-month high in July and exceeded most trade estimates, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Friday.

NOPA members, which account for more than 95% of the all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 195.699 million bushels last month, up 5.6% from the 185.270 million bushels in June and up 7% from a crush of 182.881 million bushels a year ago.

It was the largest July crush ever reported by NOPA and the fifth-largest for any month on record, NOPA data showed.

The monthly report included crush data for the first time from new NOPA member Platinum Crush in Alta, Iowa, NOPA said.

The July crush was expected to rise to 191.590 million bushels, according to the average of estimates from eight analysts surveyed by Reuters. Estimates ranged from 186.300 million to 195.750 million bushels, with a median of 192.100 million bushels.

Recent crush plant expansions and new plant openings amid soaring demand for soyoil to make biofuel have lifted U.S. crush capacity to record highs.

Crush rates fell in June to the slowest since last autumn’s harvest as some facilities were idled for maintenance ahead of the 2025 harvest while others were running at reduced capacity. But improving crush margins have since encouraged processors to boost output, analysts said.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of July 31 declined to 1.379 billion pounds, down 0.4% from stocks of 1.384 billion pounds at the end of June and down 8% from the 1.499 billion pounds in stocks a year earlier.

Stocks, on average, were expected to dip to 1.380 billion pounds, according to estimates from six analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.300 billion to 1.500 billion pounds, with a median of 1.359 billion pounds.

 

Analyst ASAP Agri increases Ukraine 2025 corn crop forecast sharply

Analyst ASAP Agri has increased its Ukraine 2025 corn crop harvest outlook to 30.9 million metric tons from the previous estimate of 27.6 million tons thanks to favourable weather, the consultancy said on Friday.

“July rains fuel record corn yields in key regions,” ASAP Agri said on Telegram.

ASAP’s corn harvest estimates are among the highest compared with other forecasts, with the Economy Ministry and the UAC producers’ union forecasting a harvest of 28 million tons.

APK-Inform sees the harvest at 27.5 million tonnes.

But the consultancy said it had cut its sunflower seed forecast to 13 million tons from 13.6 million due to drought in Ukraine’s southern and eastern regions.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Record global supply reinforces downward trend in Brazil

Estimates released this week have indicated a record global corn output – and the United States and Brazil are in the spotlight. This scenario pressed down quotations in the international market, which operated at the lowest levels of the year.

In Brazil, in addition to the pressure from the international market, prices continued to decrease, influenced by the fact that purchasers are away from closing trades. They expect more significant price drops based on the progress of the harvesting and on difficulties to store the record crop.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices dropped only 0.3% between August 7 and 14, to close at BRL 63.37 per 60-kg bag on Aug. 14. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same period, corn values moved up 0.4% in the wholesale market (deals between processors), but dropped 0.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Low stock/consumption ratio in the US boosts prices

Prices for soybean and soymeal increased this week in the international market, influenced by the lower stock/final consumption ratio in the United States this season, which finishes this month. The smaller stock/consumption ratio, in turn, is related to the higher demand (international and from the US) in the 2024/25 crop. Estimates of smaller soybean production in 2025/26 in the United States also influenced quotations.

In this scenario, the export parity increased in Brazil, and soybean producers are more optimistic with sales to the international market this season, especially to Asia, due to the trade war between China and the US.

The USDA released a report in August 12 indicating that 2024/25 ending stocks in the United States are likely to hit 8.98 million tons, downing 5.7% compared to that indicated in the previous report and 3.6% in relation to the crop before (2023/24). The domestic consumption is projected at 68.8 million tons, upping 0.4% and 5.2% in the same comparisons.

The USDA reduced by 1% the 2025/26 output forecast in the United States compared to the previous report and by 1.7% in relation to the season before.

BRAZIL – Brazil continues as the leader in both production and exports of soybean in the world, with almost 170 million tons harvested in this season (2024/25) – the USDA indicates 169 million tons, and Conab, 169.66 million tons.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) rose 1.3% from August 7-14, closing at BRL 140.85 per 60-kg bag on Aug. 14. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) upped 0.9% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 133.31 per 60-kg bag.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) increased 1.8% and 1.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) between August 7 and 14. The US dollar moved down 0.3% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 5.417 yesterday.

 

Egypt’s Local Wheat Purchases Rise to 3.94M Tons in 2025 Season

Amount bought from local farmers up from 3.6M tons in 2024, Supply Minister Sherif Farouk tells Bloomberg by phone.

Egypt’s local wheat-buying season ran from mid-April to Aug. 15

 

Banco do Brasil facing record agribusiness default levels, CEO says

Banco do Brasil is facing the highest default level ever recorded in its agribusiness loan portfolio, CEO Tarciana Medeiros said on Friday, adding that the deterioration had not been anticipated even in the most pessimistic forecasts.

The state-run lender on Thursday reported weaker-than-expected second-quarter results and announced a sharp cut to its full-year outlook, following an already challenging first quarter marked by high delinquency in the agribusiness segment.

Most of the defaults stem from soybean, corn, and cattle producers in Brazil’s center-west and southern regions, Medeiros said during a call with analysts.

“We have a portfolio of over 600,000 clients, of which 20,000 are in default. And 74% of them had never been in default until December 2023,” she said.

Many farmers in Brazil – a top global supplier of grains, coffee, meat, cotton and sugar – have struggled in recent years with bad weather, high interest rates and elevated input costs, leading to an increase in the number of bankruptcy filings.

Banco do Brasil reported a 90-day default ratio of 3.49% in the sector in the April-to-June period, up from 3.04% in the previous quarter and 1.32% a year earlier.

The bank, long seen as a pillar of farm credit in the South American agricultural powerhouse, expects the sector to continue to hurt its results in the very short term, Medeiros said.

She pointed to a “still stressed” third quarter and said the lender did not want market participants to have unrealistic expectations, as it has debt from the 2024/25 season maturing through September.

The bank hopes that favorable weather conditions, forecasts for a bumper 2025/26 grain crop and improving commodity prices will help lower delinquency in agribusiness in the new season.

Banco do Brasil expects some improvement in its overall results from the fourth quarter onwards, driven by net interest income growth.

Its shares fell as much as 4% in early Sao Paulo trading, before reversing course to trade up 1%. They had plunged more than 30% since the weaker-than-expected first quarter results and are still down 13% year-to-date.

“Certainly a weak quarter, but somewhat expected,” analysts at Itau BBA said in a note to clients.

“We remain cautious, looking for more visibility on the still-worsening credit quality trends, but do not expect a major negative reaction,” they added.

 

Brazil’s BRF expects China, Europe to resume chicken imports

China and Europe will resume buying chicken products from Brazil “in a matter of days or weeks” as local authorities controlled a bird flu outbreak that triggered trade bans in the second quarter, Brazilian food processor BRF SA BRFS3.SA said on Friday.

Brazil’s first bird flu case at a chicken breeder farm last May sparked a number of trade restrictions that were gradually lifted by importers as the world’s largest poultry exporter controlled the outbreak.

The government declared Brazil free of the highly contagious disease in June.

In a conference call on BRF’s quarterly results, management said food inventories had risen above desirable levels due to the export restrictions, a situation BRF aims to resolve in the short term.

“As those two markets reopen we will return to inventory levels more closer to zero,” CEO Miguel Gularte told an analyst on the call. “It is our philosophy not to keep inventories without sales.”

BRF described China and Europe as “extremely important” markets. On Thursday, management had welcomed a decision by Saudi Arabia and Chile to resume purchases, citing official government disclosures.

BRF said it redirected some chicken cuts usually sold to China to other markets. The company’s poultry exports fell by 5% last quarter, compared with an overall drop of 15% for Brazilian exports.

Goldman Sachs said BRF’s results were surprisingly positive given the challenging scenario.

The company’s shares rose almost 4% in late morning trade in Sao Paulo.

Genial Investimentos wrote that despite the avian flu effects, BRF’s margins and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, a measure of operating income known as EBITDA, “exceeded expectations.”

Going forward, lower grain prices, corn in particular, will reduce production costs and widen margins during the third and fourth quarters, managers on the call said.

 

US Beef Production Falls 1.1% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

US federally inspected beef production falls to 458m pounds for the week ending Aug. 16 from 463m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter down 1.1% from a week ago to 530m head
• Pork production up 2.5% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 2.9%
• For the year, beef production is 3.8% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 2.2% below

 

Petrobras mulls investment in Raizen to re-enter ethanol market, O Globo reports

Brazilian state-run oil company Petrobras is considering an investment in sugar and ethanol producer Raizen as a way to re-enter the ethanol market, local newspaper O Globo reported on Saturday, citing sources.

Petrobras had previously said it was eyeing a return to the ethanol sector after having announced in its 2017-2021 strategic plan it would no longer produce biofuels, while Raizen is open to a new partner as it faces financial hurdles.

Petrobras and Raizen did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

O Globo said Petrobras could make a decision by year-end. The oil company is studying several options, including joining Raizen as a partner or buying assets from the firm, the report added.

Raizen, the world’s largest sugar maker and a leading ethanol producer, is controlled by Shell and Brazilian conglomerate Cosan. The company also has businesses in the fuel distribution sector.

Raizen earlier this week acknowledged the possibility of a new shareholder after reporting weak results, which caused its stock to plunge to a record low. Cosan said bringing in a new partner for the company was “an option we like.”

Raizen has been facing operational challenges and high debt. Recent measures put in place to reduce leverage included divestitures and shutting down a major mill.

 

Hurricane Erin Back to Category 4, on Track to Miss US Coast

Hurricane Erin has re-intensified after moving past Puerto Rico, with the dangerous storm expected to increase in size and remain over the ocean as it churns off the US East Coast later this week.

Erin’s top winds strengthened to 130 miles (209 kilometers) per hour, bumping it back up to a Category 4 storm on the five-step, Saffir-Simpson scale, the US National Hurricane Center said in an advisory. Some additional intensification is forecast over the next 12 hours, the agency added.

The storm, the first hurricane of the six-month season, was 130 miles northeast of Grand Turk Island moving northwest at 12 mph, and heavy rain was forecast through Monday for Puerto Rico and the Bahamas. The system is expected to pass between North Carolina’s Outer Banks and Bermuda later this week.

Erin’s winds increased rapidly on Saturday to reach 160 mph, making it a scale-topping Category 5 storm and one of the earliest examples of such a powerful system to emerge in the Atlantic this year. In July 2024, Beryl became the earliest hurricane to reach top intensity during the Atlantic season.

“Erin has been growing in size, and that trend is likely to continue over the next few days,” US Senior Hurricane Specialist Richard Pasch wrote in a forecast analysis. “The expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic.”

 

 

 

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