Global Ag News For Aug 19.2025

TOP HEADLINES

USDA ends programs for solar, wind projects on farms

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will no longer support solar and wind projects on productive farmland, said Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins in a post on X on Monday.

The move is the latest in a series of actions by the administration of President Donald Trump to stall development of wind and solar energy, which Trump says are unreliable, expensive, and dependent on Chinese supply chains.

“Millions of acres of prime farmland is left unusable so Green New Deal subsidized solar panels can be built. This destruction of our farms and prime soil is taking away the futures of the next generation of farmers and the future of our country,” Rollins said on X.

The USDA has provided over $2 billion for renewable energy projects, like solar and wind, through its Rural Energy for America Program, according to the agency website. The agency has also supported clean energy projects for rural electric cooperatives.

The USDA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

About 424,000 acres (1,715 square kilometers) of rural land were affected by wind turbines and solar farms in 2020, less than 0.05% of the nearly 900 million acres used for farmland, according to a 2024 USDA study. Most of that land stayed in agricultural production after the development of the solar or wind projects, the study found.

The administration of former President Joe Biden supported solar and wind projects in rural areas and on farms as part of its effort to cut climate-harming emissions and make clean energy more affordable.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 3/4 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, up 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans up 3/4; Soymeal up $3.20; Soyoil down 0.62.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 4 3/4 in SRW, down 5 in HRW, down 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 1/2; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 0.53.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 20 1/4 in SRW, down 21 1/4 in HRW, down 14 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 10 1/2; Soybeans up 52 3/4; Soymeal up $19.00; Soyoil down 2.04.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.3% in SRW, down 10.3% in HRW, down 4.7% in HRS; Corn is down 17.2%; Soybeans up 2.4%; Soymeal down 7.6%; Soyoil up 32.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 4 yuan; Soymeal up 20; Soyoil down 10; Palm oil up 54; Corn down 7 — Malaysian Palm is down 39.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 39 ringgit (-0.86%) at 4520.

There were changes in registrations (-44 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 590 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 1,432 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 18 were: SRW Wheat up 6,485 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,638, Corn up 9,482, Soybeans up 2,003, Soymeal down 2,547, Soyoil up 702.

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 19 August 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: SMAP daily data shows most U.S. Corn Belt soils have adequate moisture, except for some areas in Illinois and Missouri
• SOUTH AMERICA: Expected rains and excess moisture in Argentina’s Pampas threatens wheat crops with waterlogging and root rot
• BLACK SEA:  Ongoing drought in southwest Russia and minimal rain expected through late August will continue to impact spring crop quality
• SOUTH ASIA: Heavy rains expected across Western India will rise the risks of flooding, mostly in Gujarat and surrounding areas
• TROPICS: Hurricane Erin has weakened to Category 3 and is moving north, remaining offshore of the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast.

 

Heavy rains in Argentina may affect local wheat ahead of the growing season

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

What to Watch:

• Heavy rains and excess moisture in the Argentinian Pampas may increase the risks of floods and disease for early-stage wheat
• High rainfall in southern Brazil should be neutral on crops at this stage of the season
• Cool conditions from southern Brazil will not reach coffee areas in the Southeast

 

Northern Plains: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday.  

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Midwest West: Isolated to scattered showers south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

 

The player sheet for 5/18 had funds: net sellers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,500 corn, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: Exporters sold 124,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown buyers for 2025/26 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• WHEAT PURCHASES: Egypt’s state grains buyer, Future of Egypt (Mostakbal Misr), said it agreed to purchase at least 200,000 metric tons of French wheat in recent private deals with exporters, plus several 30,000-ton cargoes of wheat from Ukraine and Romania.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 90,200 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 45,200 metric tons of rice to be sourced from Vietnam and Thailand.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP TOUR: South Dakota Corn, Soybeans Seen Topping 2024 Levels

Corn yields in South Dakota are estimated at 174.2 bu/acre based on 83 fields sampled, up from 156.5 bu/acre seen last year, according to Pro Farmer Crop Tour data on Monday.

• Estimate up from three-year corn yield average of 144.1 bu/acre
  • Estimate is also above US Department of Agriculture forecast for South Dakota of 168 from Aug. 12
• South Dakota soybeans are seen averaging 1,188.5 pods in a 3-by-3-foot square, based on 83 samples; that’s above the year-ago figure of 1,025.9 and higher than the three-year average of 970.1 pods: tour data
• NOTE: Tour, which runs through Thursday, does not project soybean yields

 

CROP TOUR: Ohio Corn, Soybeans Seen Above 2024 Levels

Corn yields in Ohio are estimated at 185.7 bu/acre based on 116 fields sampled, up from 183.3 bu/acre seen last year, according to Pro Farmer Crop Tour data on Monday.

• Estimate up from three-year corn yield average of 181.1 bu/acre
  • Estimate is below US Department of Agriculture forecast for Ohio of 196 from Aug. 12
• Ohio soybeans are seen averaging 1,287.3 pods in a 3-by-3-foot square, based on 114 samples; that’s above the year-ago figure of 1,229.9 and higher than the three-year average of 1,204.8 pods: tour data
• NOTE: Tour, which runs through Thursday, does not project soybean yields

 

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 71% G/E, Soybeans 68%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 71% G/E vs 72% last week, and 67% a year ago
• Soybeans 68% G/E vs 68% last week, and 68% a year ago
• Spring wheat 50% G/E vs 49% last week, and 73% a year ago
• Spring wheat harvest 36% G/E vs 16% last week, and 29% a year ago
• Winter wheat harvest 94% vs 90% last week, and 96% a year ago
• Cotton 55% G/E vs 53% last week, and 42% a year ago

 

US Inspected 1.051m Tons of Corn for Export, 474k of Soybeans

In week ending Aug. 14, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 1,051k tons vs 1,523k the previous wk, 1,218k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 474k tons vs 544k the previous wk, 406k a yr ago
• Wheat: 395k tons vs 415k the previous wk, 374k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Aug. 14

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Aug. 14 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Egypt-bound shipments made up 127k tons of the 474k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

China buys first Australian canola cargo since 2020, traders say

Chinese state-run trading firm COFCO has booked a cargo of about 50,000 metric tons of new-crop Australian canola, two traders told Reuters, just days after Beijing imposed temporary levies on top supplier Canada.

The purchase would mark China’s first imports from Australia since 2020 when Australia, the world’s second-largest canola exporter, was locked out of the Chinese market, largely due to phytosanitary restrictions aimed at preventing the spread of fungal plant disease.

COFCO has purchased the cargo for November-December shipment and is negotiating for more deals, according to the two sources with direct knowledge of the deal.

The purchase price is below $600 per ton, including freight, the sources said.

COFCO did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

Reuters reported in July that Canberra was close to reaching an agreement with Beijing to allow Australian suppliers to ship five trial canola cargoes to China. It remains unclear whether COFCO’s recent purchase is part of this trial agreement.

“One cargo is a done deal and there is talk (they are) going to buy more,” said one of the sources, a Singapore-based trader. “Very soon there are going to be more deals.”

As the world’s largest canola importer, China has sourced nearly all of its canola from Canada in recent years. However, Beijing’s decision last week to impose a temporary 75.8% levy is expected to cut off Canadian canola from the Asian market.

“The price is very good if you look at crush margins for canola in China,” said the second trader also in Singapore, adding that canola to be shipped to China is from Australia’s new crop due to be harvested in the coming months.

“By the time it arrives in China it will be end of December or early next year.”

The cargo was genetically modified organisms (GMO), which require special licenses in China, the sources said.

Acquiring GMO approval was the final hurdle before China would agree to import canola cargoes from Australia, according to two other sources familiar with the matter.

On Friday, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) granted seven GMO Safety Certificate approvals to COFCO Oils & Oilseeds Trading Co., a COFCO subsidiary, without disclosing specific details, an official website showed. MARA did not immediately respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.

 

Palm Oil May Hold Above 4,300 Ringgit/Ton on Biofuel Push: MPOC

Palm oil futures are expected to hold above 4,300 ringgit a ton in the near term as rising biodiesel demand in Indonesia and the US reduces availability of edible oils, including palm and soybean oil, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council.

• Despite the likelihood of volatile prices in the weeks ahead, tightening soybean oil export availability, combined with prospects of palm oil’s supply growth lagging behind biodiesel demand, should provide continued support to the tropical oil, the MPOC said in a statement on Tuesday
• Indonesia’s biodiesel program is consuming more than 1 million tons of palm oil every month since February, helping avoid a buildup in stockpiles in the top grower
  • If the country raises its biodiesel mandate to B50 in 2026, it would require about 16m tons of palm oil annually for blending, 3m tons more than in 2025
  • Global palm oil output is projected to grow only by 1.6m tons in 2026
• The surge in domestic use of soybean oil for biodiesel production in the US next year is expected to sharply reduce its export availability
  • Brazil’s soy oil exports may also struggle to expand despite bumper soybean harvests, as the country raised its mandatory biodiesel blend to 15% in August
• “This tightening in export availability is likely to support vegetable oil prices, including palm oil,” the MPOC said
• Meanwhile, Malaysia’s palm oil inventories are unlikely to see a major buildup in September-October, as production in the peninsular region may decline from September

 

Russia’s IKAR consultancy raises 2025 wheat crop, export forecasts again

Russia’s IKAR consultancy raised its 2025 wheat crop forecast to 85.5 million metric tons on Monday from 84.5 million tons previously, in its second upward revision this month.

Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR, said the increase was prompted by improved assessments for the centre of the country and the Volga region, as well as for the Urals and Siberia.

The agency also raised its wheat export forecast for the new marketing season to 42.5 million tons from 41.5 million tons previously.

IKAR increased its total 2025 grain crop forecast to 132 million metric tons from 130.5 million tons, and its grain export forecast to 54.5 million tons from 53.0 million metric tons.

The main grain-producing regions in southern Russia have completed harvesting of barley and wheat, with Stavropol, Krasnodar and Rostov producing in total about 28 million tons, according to local authorities.

The Ministry of Agriculture said on Wednesday almost half of all growing areas in Russia had been harvested for the 2025 crop. It said grain production had reached 75 million tons, and yields were higher than last year.

The ministry’s current forecast for the 2025 grain harvest is 135 million tons. The forecast for grain exports in the 2025/26 season is 53-55 million tons, including 43-44 million tons of wheat.

 

Low stock/consumption ratio in the US boosts prices

Cepea, August 18, 2025 – Prices for soybean and soymeal increased in mid-August in the international market, influenced by the lower stock/final consumption ratio in the United States this season, which finishes this month. The smaller stock/consumption ratio, in turn, is related to the higher demand (international and from the US) in the 2024/25 crop. Estimates of smaller soybean production in 2025/26 in the United States also influenced quotations.

In this scenario, the export parity increased in Brazil, and soybean producers are more optimistic with sales to the international market this season, especially to Asia, due to the trade war between China and the US.

The USDA released a report on August 12 indicating that 2024/25 ending stocks in the United States are likely to hit 8.98 million tons, downing 5.7% compared to that indicated in the previous report and 3.6% in relation to the crop before (2023/24). The domestic consumption is projected at 68.8 million tons, upping 0.4% and 5.2% in the same comparisons.

The USDA reduced by 1% the 2025/26 output forecast in the United States compared to the previous report and by 1.7% in relation to the season before.

 

Brazil Regulator Opens Probe on Soy Moratorium

Brazil antitrust regulator Cade opened a probe against associations and trading companies that signed the soybean moratorium, to investigate a possible purchasing cartel in the grain export market, according to a note published on its website.

• Probe will investigate two associations and 30 trading companies, which constitute the so-called Soybean Working Group (GTS)
• Cade states that the soy moratorium  signed by the group constitutes an “anti-competitive agreement between competitors that harms soybean exports”
  • The moratorium is a a public commitment to not purchasing soybeans from land deforested after 2008
• It also adopted a preventive measure to ensure that the group stops collecting and disseminating commercial information about the grain
• Fines for associations reach up to 2 billion reais
  • For companies, they vary between 0.1% and 20% of gross revenue from the last fiscal year

 

Peru hopes to attract investment with tax cuts and sustain agro-export boom, minister says

Peru hopes to increase agricultural investment with a significant reduction in income tax for large export companies, the sector’s minister told Reuters on Monday.

The Peruvian Congress last week passed a law that reduces income tax to 15% from the current 29.5% for large agricultural exporters over the next 10 years. Medium-sized businesses would pay 1.5% income tax, while small businesses would be exempt from the tax.

Peru expects agricultural sales to surpass mining,considered the country’s economic engine, by 2050. Peru is the world’s third-largest copper producer.

“This will allow us to attract investment,” said Agriculture Minister Ángel Manero in a telephone interview, of the new law.

The country recorded $12.8 billion in agricultural exports last year, and Manero expects increased fruit shipments to drive sales to about $15 billion by 2025.

The star product of Peruvian agricultural exports is blueberries,which are exported primarily to the United States and Europe. Minister Manero also highlighted the sharp increase in sales of table grapes, avocados, cocoa, and mangos.

Peru has a portfolio of approximately $24 billion in largely public-private irrigation projects to expand its agricultural area, primarily on the country’s coast, to more than 1 million hectares (2.5 million acres). Manero said that eight projects worth $11 billion have been launched from that portfolio.

Manero noted that the next market to conquer is India, with which a free trade agreement is expected to be signed this year. Peru last week announced a new trade dealwith Indonesia.

 

Brazil C-S Seeding of Summer Corn 1.6% Completed: AgRural

Seeding of 2025/26 summer crop is 1.6% completed in the Center-South region, which compares with 0.1% a year earlier, according to an emailed report from AgRural consulting firm.

Harvest of the second corn crop is 94% completed, while it was fully done at this time last year

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: High availability in BR and dollar decreases press down quotations

Estimates continue to indicate smaller production in Brazil in 2025. However, high ending stocks (July/25), influenced by firm imports, may keep the domestic availability high. This scenario, along with decreases abroad and of dollar quotations (which favor imports), resulted in price drops in Brazil.

According to data released by Conab this month, the wheat area is likely to reach 2.55 million hectares, downing 16.7% compared to the previous season. The productivity, on the other hand, may increase 19%, to 3.07 tons per hectare, which would result in a production of 7.81 million tons in 2025, 1% smaller than in 2024.

Conab estimates that inventories were at 1.38 million tons in late July. Along with production and the import projection (6.2 million tons between August/25 and July/26), it results in domestic availability of 15.39 million tons in 2025, upping 1.1% compared to that in the period before.

The domestic consumption is forecast by Conab at 11.83 million tons, and exports, at 2.1 million tons from Aug/25 and July/26, a scenario that would result in ending stocks at 1.46 million tons by July/26.

The USDA indicates that the global wheat production may hit 806.89 million tons, for a decrease of 0.2% compared to estimates released in July. However, compared to 2024/25, the output may be 0.9% higher.

The USDA projects global consumption of 809.526 million tons, 0.1% down in relation to the report released in July, but 0.3% above that in the season before. Ending stocks dropped 0.5% against the previous report and 1% compared to the 2024/25 crop.

 

Germany’s DBV Raises Grain Harvest Forecast to 43.5m Tons

Total German grain production for the 2025-26 season is seen at 43.5m tons, up from a June forecast of 40.1m tons, according to forecasts by farming association Deutscher Bauernverband.

• It compares with 39m tons produced in the 2024 season
• Winter wheat production is seen at 21.7m tons, up from 17.8m tons the season prior
  • DBV cites better yields per hectare and larger planting area
  • Still, some quality concerns remain due to persistent rainfall and signs of lower protein content
• Barley output is seen higher at 9.3m tons, up from 8.9m tons the year before
• Rapeseed crops are pegged at about 3.9m tons, up from 3.6m tons
• “The persistent rainfall during the actual harvest season has again significantly hindered the work of us farmers this year,” says DBV President Joachim Rukwied

 

Egypt agrees to buy at least 200,000 tons of French wheat, state buyer says

• Egypt is one of the world’s biggest wheat importers
• State provides subsidised bread for over two-thirds of population
• Cairo missed target for domestic wheat buying in 2024/25 season

Egypt’s state grains buyer Future of Egypt has agreed to buy at least 200,000 metric tons of French wheat in recent private deals with exporters, plus several 30,000-ton cargoes of wheat from Ukraine and Romania, it told Reuters on Monday.

The North African nation is one of the world’s top wheat importers. On average, state agencies bring in about 5 million tons of its total wheat imports of more than 12 million tons.

The military-linked Future of Egypt, or Mostakbal Misr, took over international grain purchases from the decades-old General Authority for Supply Commodities in December, marking a significant shift in the country’s food procurement strategy.

GASC, a civilian agency under the supply ministry, traditionally imported wheat and vegetable oils through international tenders. FoE, by contrast, has made private deals with mostly local importers.

Traders said that FoE may have booked as many as seven large panamax vessels of French wheat, or more than 400,000 tons, in the past two weeks.

That included at least one 63,000-ton vessel for September 10–20 shipment with payment via 270-day letters of credit, with other cargoes also understood to be for prompt shipment in the coming weeks, traders said.

Wheat is used to produce subsidised bread for more than two-thirds of the country’s 108 million people, who are already struggling with high inflation and worsening living conditions.

This makes wheat imports vital for the country, which failed to reach its 4 million-5 million ton target for domestic wheat purchases for the 2024/25 season which ended on Friday.

Price estimates for the shipments were around $265 to $270 a ton cost and freight included, with some estimates of deals above $275 a ton c&f, they said.

FoE declined to give details on prices or payment terms.

“France’s harvest is all but finished, and French supplies are available,” one German trader said.

“I think Egypt would prefer Russian, but Russian new-crop supplies are still stubbornly tight as farmers are not selling enough, especially 11% protein wheat.”

Since the transition, some agreements have reportedly been revised or delayed, with traders citing a less predictable process.

Egypt’s wheat imports dropped by 30% to 4.9 million tons in the first half of the year. These include imports by the state buyer as well as the private sector.

FoE previously booked about 180,000 tons of French wheat in April, with loading initially expected in May and June. However, that was not completed until early August.

 

 

 

 

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