Global Ag News For Aug 19th
TODAY – EXPORT SALES
Wheat prices overnight are down 6 in SRW, down 9 1/4 in HRW, down 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 5; Soybeans down 14 3/4; Soymeal down $0.25; Soyoil down 1.15.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 28 3/4 in SRW, down 27 1/2 in HRW, down 21 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 13; Soybeans down 26 1/2; Soymeal down $0.26; Soyoil down 2.95.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 32 1/4 in SRW, up 43 1/4 in HRW, up 16 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 14 3/4; Soybeans down 10 3/4; Soymeal up $3.90; Soyoil down 2.71.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal down 34; Soyoil down 54; Palm oil down 78; Corn down 15 — Malasyian Palm is down 64. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 64 ringgit (-1.49%) at 4237.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers south Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday. East: Moderate to heavy rain east Wednesday. Isolated showers east through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.
The player sheet for Aug. 18 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,000 corn, buyers of 5,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,500 soyoil.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 18 were: SRW Wheat up 2,658 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,894, Corn down 1,195, Soybeans up 7,202, Soymeal up 231, Soyoil down 395.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 298 Soyoil; 79 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.
- SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 131,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year that begins Sept. 1. The deal was the latest in a daily series of soy sales announcements dating to Aug. 5.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grain buyer GASC said it bought 180,000 tonnes of wheat in an international purchasing tender to be sourced from Romania and Ukraine.
- WHEAT PURCHASE UPDATE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC purchased up to 290,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat in a tender on Tuesday
- WHEAT TENDER PASSED: Jordan’s state grain buyer, the trade ministry, is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which closed on Wednesday
- WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: No trading companies were believed to have participated in the international tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase and import 50,000 tonnes of wheat which closed on Wednesday
- FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER UPDATE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it received no offers for feed-quality wheat or barley in a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that closed late on Wednesday.
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture sought 143,765 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.
- VEGETABLE OILS TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said it was seeking soyoil and sunflower oil in an international purchasing tender for arrival Oct 5-25. The deadline for offers is Aug. 19.
- FEED WHEAT TENDER: Importers in the Philippines are tendering to purchase up to 280,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat
- SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase around 3,700 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms.
- WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 400,000 tonnes of wheat
- DURUM TENDER: Morocco’s state grains agency, ONICL, issued a tender to import around 363,000 tonnes of U.S.-origin durum wheat under a preferential tariff import quota
GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report
Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Aug. 12.
- Corn est. range 200k – 1,100k tons, with avg of 731k
- Soybean est. range 1,200k – 1,900k tons, with avg of 1,546k
DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Fall 3.2% to 21.558M Bbl
According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.
- Analysts were expecting 22.172 mln bbl
- Plant production at 0.973m b/d, compared to survey avg of 0.987m
CROP TOUR: West-Central Illinois Corn Beats State-Wide 2020 Avg
Corn yield estimates looked to be above 2020 averages in west-central Illinois, Mike Berdo, a scout on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour, said on its 3rd day.
- Corn ears got heavier and filled out more as the scouts moved west toward Iowa, Berdo said
- Yields in west-central Illinois averaged ~206.29 bu/acre after 16 stops over two days
- Last year, the statewide average was ~189.4 bu, tour data shows
- Soybeans were experiencing significant insect pressure: Berdo
- Soybeans averaged ~1,261 pods in a 3-by-3-foot square
- Last year, the Illinois average was ~1,247.38 pods
- NOTE: Tour doesn’t estimate soybean yields
- NOTE: The eastern leg of the tour will make corn-yield and soy-pod projections for the entire state of Illinois later on Wednesday
CROP TOUR: Illinois Corn Yields and Soy Pods Up Over Last Year
Corn yields in Illinois avg 196.3 bu/acre, according to 239 samples taken by participants on this week’s Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.
- That’s up 3.6% from 2020 Illinois tour avg estimate of 189.4 bu/acre
- Three-year avg is 184.4
- Illinois soybean pod count in 3-by-3-foot square avg 1279.79 pods, according to 239 samples
- That’s up 2.6% from tour avg estimate of 1,247.38 pods last year
- Three-year avg is 1191.33
CROP TOUR: Western Iowa Corn Above Average on Sufficient Rains
Yield potential for corn was above average in the far western part of top-growing state Iowa, according to scouts Wednesday on the 3rd day of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.
- While much of the state was at least abnormally dry, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, sufficient rains during the past few months boosted crop potential
- “It’s the best corn I’ve seen all week,” says Pro Farmer market analyst and crop scout Bruce Blythe, who surveyed fields Monday in South Dakota and Tuesday in Nebraska
- “It appears these areas got rain when they needed it”
- Yield potential averaged 207.7 bu/acre after eight stops in Iowa counties of Fremont, Mills, Pottawattamie, Harrison and Shelby
- That’s above last year’s average in this part of Iowa of 184.7 bu and the three-year average of 183.6 bu
- Corn fields were relatively consistent, with little crop disease or major weed issues
- Soybean pod count in 3-by-3-foot square averaged 1,295.7 pods
- That’s up from 1,164 pods last year and the three-year average of 1,276.7
- NOTE: The crop tour doesn’t project soybean yields
- NOTE: Iowa is 2nd-biggest soy-producing state
- There were instances of white mold and Japanese beetles in the soybeans, although the issues didn’t appear significant enough to drastically impact fields
- “The corn and the beans both look very consistent,” says Greg Lehenbauer, a crop scout and Nebraska farmer
- “If they can get one more rain, they should both finish strongly”
- NOTE: Pro Farmer will project corn and soybeans in western Iowa later Wednesday
CROP TOUR: Corn Yields Top Last Year in Three Iowa Districts
Yield potential for corn also topped the three-year avg in districts 4 and 7 in southwestern Iowa while district 1 was slightly below the three-year avg, according to data Wednesday from the third day of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.
- Yields for district 1 avg 182.8 bu/acre after 80 samples
- Compares with 181.3 last year, three-year avg of 184.3 bu/acre
- District 4 yields were 201.1 bu/acre after 73 samples
- Compares with year-ago avg of 172.4 bu/acre; three-year avg of 184
- District 7 came in at 192.5 bu/acre after 44 samples
- Compares with 184.7 bu/acre in 2020, 3-year avg of 183.6 bu/acre
- Soybean pod count in 3-by-3-foot square were higher from a year ago and the three-year avg for all three districts
- Soybeans in district 1 were measured at 1,089.4 pods after 81 samples
- That compares with 1,031.3 pods in 2020, three-year avg of 1,063.7 pods
- Counts for district 4 came in at 1,225.2 after 73 samples
- Compares with 1,177.4 last year, three-year avg of 1,211.2
- District 7 counts were 1,367.6 after 44 samples
- Compares with 1,164 pods last year, three-year avg of 1,276.7 pods
- NOTE: The crop tour does not project soybean yields
- NOTE: Data for the whole state will be published Thursday
Ebbing Soy Protein Levels to Cost Argentina $575m: Rosario
Argentina’s soy meal exports from the 2021 crop will see $575m, or 7%, shaved off their value because of falling protein levels in harvested beans, the Rosario Board of Trade says in a report.
- Oilseed crushers have to dry out beans more than normal to get meal protein levels up to importers’ requirements
- That uses more energy and reduces overall meal production measured by weight
- Quality discounts are also being priced into Argentine meal more frequently
- The global standard for meal is 47%-48% protein, but Argentina has had to cut its benchmark to 46.5%
- NOTE: Falling protein levels have been concerning crushers for years
- NOTE: Argentina is the world’s biggest exporter of soy meal for livestock feed
Argentina’s 2021-22 Corn Area to Climb to Record 7.1m Ha: Bourse
Planting for the upcoming season is seen increasing by 7.5% y/y to 7.1m hectares (17.5m acres), from last season’s 6.6m hectares, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says in an emailed report.
- Farmers to plant more corn because of high yields last season, robust prices and the outlook for improved profit margins, especially compared with soybeans on key Pampas farmland
- Planting of the 2021-22 crop begins this month and runs through February
- NOTE: The planting window is wide because there are two crops, “early” and “late”
- Production estimate for the previous 2020-21 season increased to 50.5m metric tons from the expectation of 48m last week
- Bourse will host an event launching the 2021-22 soy/corn season, which may develop with drier-than-average conditions, on Sept. 14
- NOTE: The Rosario Board of Trade estimates 2021-22 corn planting at 6.8m ha and record production of 55m tons
India Plans to Spend $1.5B to Help Farmers Boost Palm Oil Output
India, the world’s biggest palm oil importer, will spend 110.4 billion rupees in helping farmers boost oil palm plantation mainly in the northeastern region and Andaman and Nicobar Islands, according to Farm Minister Narendra Singh Tomar.
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