Global Ag News for Aug 27.24

TOP HEADLINES

Ghana Bans Rice, Corn Exports to Stave Off Food Shortage

• Drought in northern Ghana is threatening grain production
• Ghana is raising $500 million to mitigate impact of shortage

Ghana is banning the export of some grains including rice, corn and soy to avert a drought-induced food shortage in the West African nation.

Drought and near-drought conditions over the past two months have increased the risk of crop failure in a part of the country responsible for about 62% of Ghana’s grain production, Agriculture Minister Bryan Acheampong told reporters Monday in the capital, Accra. The six affected regions are mostly in the north.

As much as 1.8 million hectares of land are at risk and farmers growing food on roughly half that area have already been impacted, he said.

“We are forecasting a significant shortfall in grain availability,” said Acheampong. “Without any interventions, this could lead to a nationwide food shortage.”

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal up $0.80; Soyoil down 0.25.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 6 in SRW, up 1/2 in HRW, down 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/4; Soybeans up 5 3/4; Soymeal up $4.50; Soyoil up 0.12.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 30 in SRW, down 30 1/4 in HRW, down 34 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 14; Soybeans down 43 3/4; Soymeal down $6.70; Soyoil down 1.82.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 21.3% in SRW, down 18.2% in HRW, down 25.4% in HRS; Corn is down 23.4%; Soybeans down 26.0%; Soymeal down 18.7%; Soyoil down 13.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans up 57 yuan; Soymeal up 29; Soyoil up 108; Palm oil up 116; Corn up 20 — Malaysian Palm is down 2.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 2 ringgit (-0.05%) at 3922.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 15 Corn; 10 Soybeans; 415 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 26 were: SRW Wheat down 11,143 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,222, Corn down 11,787, Soybeans down 5,963, Soymeal up 1,500, Soyoil down 10,639.

 

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal west and near to below normal east Saturday-Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, below normal north and above normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers south Saturday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Western Midwest: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday, south Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Eastern Midwest: Isolated showers through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for Aug. 26 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,000 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 500 soymeal, and buyers of 2,500 soyoil.

 

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Korea Feed Association (KFA) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn that will be sourced from South America or South Africa only
• CORN, SOYMEAL, BARLEY TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 40,000 tons of soymeal, and 35,000 tons of feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy about 350,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 65% G/E, Soybeans 67%

Highlights from the report:

Corn 65% G/E vs 67% last week, and 56% a year ago

Soybeans 67% G/E vs 68% last week, and 58% a year ago

Soybean drop leaves 6% vs 4% a year ago

Spring wheat 69% G/E vs 73% last week, and 37% a year ago

Spring wheat harvest 51% G/E vs 31% last week, and 50% a year ago

Cotton 40% G/E vs 42% last week, and 33% a year ago

Sorghum 48% G/E vs 49% last week, and 45% a year ago

 

US Inspected 894k Tons of Corn for Export, 411k of Soybeans

In week ending Aug. 22, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 537k tons vs 373k the previous wk, 390k a yr ago
• Corn: 894k tons vs 1,207k the previous wk, 600k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 411k tons vs 406k the previous wk, 326k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Aug. 22

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Aug. 22 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Mexico-bound shipments made up 94k tons of the 411k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, South Korea led in wheat

 

CROP SURVEY: Analysts See a 6% Rise in Canada Wheat Production

Canadian 2024-25 wheat production seen rising to 33.8m tons from 32m tons last season, according to a Bloomberg survey of six analysts.

• Estimates varied from 32m tons to 35.1m tons
• Canola production seen 4% higher at 19.1m tons

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 98.2% Done as of Aug. 23: Safras

That compares with 86.2% a year earlier, and a five-year average of 70.7%, according to a report from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

• Harvest is 99.2% completed in Parana state, 89% in Sao Paulo, 100% in Mato Grosso do Sul, 99.1% in Goias, 100% in Mato Grosso and 75.4% in Minas Gerais

 

Argentina rains still not enough to boost wheat crop

Recent rains in Argentina’s agricultural heartland were not enough to lift the wheat crop, which has withered on lack of precipitation, the Rosario Grains Exchange said on Monday.

Argentina is a major wheat exporter worldwide, with an estimated 6.3 million hectares planted for the 2024/25 season. However, winter frosts and a lack of rain in the center and western agricultural areas has hit the crop.

“The weekend (…) brought some drizzles to the core agricultural region but it was minimal and not enough” to lift the crop as less than 6 millimeters of rain were recorded, the exchange said in a report.

This coming weekend, storms could quench the crop, though there is some uncertainty about how intense they could be, the exchange said.

“The situation is still delicate, and a little bit more water by the end of August could be crucial,” it said.

The wheat crop is currently in key development stages, with harvesting set to kick off in November and last through January.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Frosts in Paraná concern producers

Frosts registered in the Southern Brazil, especially in Paraná, have been concerning some wheat producers. Depending on the stage, frosts can favor or affect crops – for the time being, there are no official data indicating negative impacts.

In Paraná, most part of crops are producing flowers and fruits, and around 28% are ripening, according to data from Seab/Deral. Only 56% of crops are in good conditions. In Rio Grande do Sul, 83% of crops are germinating and at development stage, and 17% are producing flowers – data from Emater. In Santa Catarina, sowing activities finished, and 97% of crops are in good shape.

According to data from Cepea, between August 16 and 23, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) upped 0.21% in Rio Grande do Sul, but downed 0.5% in Santa Catarina and 0.1% in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations decreased 3.5% in São Paulo, 1.58% in Rio Grande do Sul and 1.72% in Paraná, being stable in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations moved up 0.15% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.477 on August 23.

Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between August 12 and 16, the import parity price for the wheat from Argentina delivered to Paraná state was at USD 278.64/ton. Considering the average of the US dollar in that period, at BRL 5.6305, the wheat imported was sold at BRL 1,568.89/ton, while for the Brazilian wheat traded in Paraná, the average was at BRL 1,553.28/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the price of the product from Argentina closed at USD 261.13/ton, which accounts for BRL 1,470.31/ton – against BRL 1,440.68/ton on the average of the state calculated by Cepea.

BYPRODUCTS – From August 16-23, values of wheat bran in bags rose 0.2% and 0.88% for the product in bulk.

 

EU Corn Yield Forecast Cut as Bad Weather Hits Crops: MARS

The European Union’s corn yield has been revised downward and is expected to be lower than the five-year average, the bloc’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said Monday.

• Output seen at 7.03 tons per hectare, compared with July’s estimate of 7.24 tons and June’s 7.55 tons
• Yield forecasts at EU level revised downward for almost all crops due to exceptionally hot conditions in the south and excessive rainfall in the north
  • “The poor performance of winter cereals (in particular soft wheat and winter barley) is mostly due to excessively wet conditions that affected large parts of western and northern Europe”
  • “Summer crops were particularly impacted in regions where the hot conditions coincided with limited water availability, as was often the case in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece”

 

Indonesian Palm Oil Output Set to Fall on Weather, Old Trees

• Production in 2024 may drop as much as 5% from 2023: Gapki
• US predicts global reserves on track for lowest in three years

The outlook for Indonesia’s palm oil harvest has dimmed as dry weather and aging trees crimp production in the world’s top grower, which will likely tighten global supply and keep prices elevated.

Output of the tropical oil this year is expected to be flat or as much as 5% lower than 2023, according to forecasts from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association and the Indonesian Palm Oil Board. The industry groups, which represent producers and refiners, had both predicted an increase earlier this year.

The US estimates global palm oil reserves are heading for the lowest level in three years, with the world’s second-largest grower — Malaysia — also facing supply issues due to old trees and a labor shortage. The tropical oil is used in a wide range of products from soap to ice cream and fuels.

Indonesia produced a record 54.84 million tons of palm oil in 2023, according to data from the country’s palm oil association, following three years of declining output. The industry group, known as Gapki, estimated output this year of 52 million to 53 million tons.

About a third of Indonesia’s key palm oil growing regions have seen lower than normal rainfall in July, including Sumatra and parts of Kalimantan, said M. Hadi Sugeng, the secretary general of Gapki. The trend is expected to continue this month, he added. The group forecast production will be steady to 5% lower this year, compared with a February projection for a 5% increase.

The US Foreign Agricultural Service forecast Indonesian palm oil output from January to June declined by 2% from the same period last year, according to a report earlier this month. Drought caused trees to develop more male flowers and decreased the volume of fresh fruit bunches, it said.

Benchmark palm oil futures were 1.1% higher at 3,966 ringgit at the midday break in Kuala Lumpur, extending gains for a fifth session — the longest rally since early July. Concerns about tight supply are supporting prices, said Paramalingam Supramaniam, a director at Selangor-based broker Pelindung Bestari.

Old Plantations

Maturing trees continues to be a persistent problem for the industry. For many of the nation’s smallholders, their plantations are older than 25 years and they desperately need to be replenished to help boost output, said Sahat Sinaga, the acting chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Board.

Fresh fruit production has slipped to as low as 700 kilograms a hectare at some plantations, from 830 kilograms, Sinaga said. The board estimated Indonesian output this year would drop by 3%, compared with an January forecast for a gain.

“I am deeply concerned, Indonesia’s glory in palm oil could fade away if no one realizes this issue,” Sinaga said, referring to aging plantations.

 

 

 

 

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