Global Ag News for Aug 2nd
TODAY – CROP PROGRESS, FATS & OILSEEDS, GRAIN CRUSHINGS, EXPORT INSPECTIONS
Wheat prices overnight are up 11 1/4 in SRW, up 14 3/4 in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 7 1/4; Soymeal up $0.06; Soyoil down 0.86.
Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 38 in SRW, up 49 in HRW, up 27 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/2; Soybeans down 15 3/4; Soymeal down $0.06; Soyoil down 1.89.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 19 yuan ; Soymeal down 22; Soyoil down 202; Palm oil down 162; Corn up 3 — Malasyian Palm is down 252. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 252 ringgit (-5.77%) at 4117 heading for its biggest drop in more than a month on a further decline in soybean oil futures and a fall in shipments from second-biggest grower Malaysia.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday, north Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, above normal north and below normal south Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. East: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.
The player sheet for 7/30 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 10,000 corn, sellers of 11,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 7,500 soyoil.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 30 were: SRW Wheat up 7,156 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,169, Corn up 2,064, Soybeans up 796, Soymeal up 2,554, Soyoil down 7,059.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 388 Soyoil; 175 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.
- WHEAT TENDER: Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities tendered to buy an unspecified amount of wheat from global suppliers for shipment from Sept. 24-Oct. 4 for payment using 180-day letters of credit.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: A government agency in Pakistan is believed to have bought about 220,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender for up to 500,000 tonnes which closed this week
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins on Saturday
- WHEAT BARLEY, TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase a total of about 395,000 tonnes of milling wheat and 515,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
- SOYBEAN OIL TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, said it’s seeking at least 30,000 tons of soybean oil and 10,000 tons of sunflower oil
CROP SURVEY: U.S. Soybean Crush and Corn for Ethanol
- Soybean crush seen at 162m bu in June, a 8.6% drop from year ago
- Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of June seen at 1.992b lbs, down from 2.271b
- Corn used in ethanol production seen up 18.1% y/y to 448m bu
Russia’s IKAR lowers wheat production forecast
Russian agriculture consultancy IKAR lowered its wheat production forecast for 2021 to 78.5 million tonnes from 81.5 million tonnes, Russia’s Interfax news agency reported on Friday citing its head Dmitry Rylko.
Rylko said the forecast had been changed due to a drop of crop yields, mostly in the Central and Volga regions.
Russian Wheat Export Tax Is Held at $31.40/Ton for Next Week
Russia’s wheat export customs duty will hold at $31.40/ton, unchanged from the current rate, the Agriculture Ministry said Friday on its website.
- NOTE: The rates are set weekly and take effect three working days after publication
- NOTE: Russia started the floating tax from June 2, with a $28.10/ton levy
Ukraine’s 2021/22 grain exports reach 2.5 mln tonnes
Ukraine’s grain exports rose to 2.47 million tonnes in July, the first month of the new 2021/22 July-June season, up 136,000 tonnes from a year earlier, agriculture ministry data showed on Friday. That included 694,000 tonnes of wheat, 821,000 tonnes of barley and 939,000 tonnes of corn, the data showed.
Ukraine plans to thresh around 76 million tonnes of grain in 2021 compared to 65 million tonnes in 2020. The government has said grain exports could rise to 56 million tonnes in the 2021/22 season including 20.7 million tonnes of wheat, 30.7 million tonnes of corn and 4.1 million tonnes of barley.
Ukraine exported 44.7 million tonnes of grain in the previous 2020/21 season. That included 23.1 million tonnes of corn, 16.6 million tonnes of wheat and 4.2 million tonnes of barley.
Ukraine 2021 grain harvest 36.7% complete at 24.3 mln T
Ukrainian farms have harvested 24.3 million tonnes of grain from 36.7% of its sowing area with the yield averaging 4.27 tonne per hectare, the agriculture ministry said on Friday. The volume includes 6.9 million tonnes of barley, harvested from 67.7% of the area with a yield of 4.11 tonne per hectare, and 16.9 million tonnes of wheat with a yield of 4.45 tonnes, the ministry said. Favourable weather could help Ukraine to harvest about 76 million tonnes of grain this year, up from 65 million in 2020, the ministry has said.
SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Liquidity is low in the spot market, but agents show interest in term contracts for 22/23
Soybean sales in the Brazilian spot market have been slow this week, influenced by the dollar depreciation against the Real, which tends to reduce the interest of importers in the national product, since it makes the American product more attractive in the international market. Besides, soybean farmers have been away from the spot market. However, these agents have been interested in closing term contracts for the 2022/23 crop.
CORN/CEPEA: Low domestic supply keeps prices on the rise in Brazil
Corn prices have been on the rise in the Brazilian market for five consecutive weeks. This scenario reflects the lower volume made available by sellers, who are focused on both the harvesting of the second crop and the productivity decrease, due to the effects of the drought and frosts on crops. In general, sales have been slow, with sporadic demand because of the high price levels.
In the national spot market, the highest price rises this week were observed in the typical consuming regions of Santa Catarina and São Paulo. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, the prices paid to corn farmers (over-the-counter market) between July 22 and 29 rose by 1.3%; in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased by 2.5%.
In Campinas (SP), another typical consuming region in Brazil and the base for the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn, prices rose by 2.8% in the last seven days, closing at 101.93 BRL (20.08 USD)/60-kilo bag on Thursday, 29, thus returning to the levels from late May.
CROPS – Agents are focused on the decrease in the productivity of the second crop caused by the cold. In Paraná, a survey from Seab/Deral released this week indicates a decrease of 58% in the output compared to that first expected (of 14.6 million tons), now estimated at 6.1 million tons, half of the volume produced in Paraná in the 2019/20 season. According to Seab/Deral, this reduction is the steepest in all times, which may limit exports and increase imports in the state. The harvesting of the second crop had reached 7% of the state area until July 26.
Malaysia’s July 1-31 Palm Oil Exports 1,426,617 Tons: AmSpec
Shipments decline 7.7% m/m from 1,545,780 tons exported during June 1-30, according to AmSpec Agri on Saturday.
Russian Wheat Exports Down 34% so Far This Season: Agency
Wheat shipments for the 2021/2022 season totaled 1.7m tons as of July 29, the Federal Center of Quality and Safety Assurance for Grain and Grain Products said on its website, citing inspections before exports.
- That means wheat exports totaled about 700k tons in week to July 29, compared with about 600k tons a week before
- Exports of all grains are at 2.3m tons in the season
- NOTE: Data are preliminary and include exports to the Eurasian Economic Union, which is a customs union of countries that includes Russia
Russia’s grain export estimates for July by Sovecon consultancy
Russia’s July exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are estimated at 2.6 million tonnes, up from 1.9 million tonnes in June, the Sovecon agriculture consultancy said.
Hot, Dry Conditions Further Deteriorate Alberta Crops
Just 20% of annual crops in the Canadian Prairie province are rated good to excellent, with the forecast for high temperatures to hurt conditions further, provincial government says Friday.
- Rating is well below the five-year average of 71% of Alberta crops good to excellent, bi-weekly crop report says
- 22% of spring wheat and durum crops are rated good to excellent; 17% of canola
- Crop stage for spring cereals is mid-way through the milk stage vsthe five-year average of being completed at this time of year
- Fall cereals are in hard dough stage vs five-year average of soft dough by now
- 79% of oilseeds are podding vs five-year average of 43%
- 97% of dry peas are podding vs five-year average of 77%
Monsoon Seen Normal in Second Half of India’s Rainy Season: IMD
Monsoon rains in the South Asian nation are expected to be normal in the August-September period, according to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department.
- Showers seen between 95% and 105% of the long-term average of 42.83 centimeters, Mohapatra said at an online press conference Monday
- Below-normal to normal rain likely over many areas of northwestern, eastern and northeastern regions
- Normal to above-normal showers most likely in most parts of the peninsular region and adjacent central areas
- Rainfall across the country was 7% below normal in July, the wettest month of the June-September monsoon season
- Rain in August is likely to be normal this year
- Showers may be between 94% and 106% of long-term average of 25.81 centimeters
- Below-normal to normal rain likely over many areas of central and some parts of northwestern regions
- Normal to above-normal showers most likely over most parts of peninsular and northeastern regions
India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 1% Below Normal as of Aug. 1
India has so far received 457.9 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 461.3 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on Aug. 1.
- The eastern and northeastern region got 13% below normal rains
- Rainfall in the southern peninsular region was at 15% above normal
- Cumulative seasonal rainfall data is compiled by the IMD
China’s Sinograin sells 25,999 tonnes of imported GMO corn at auction
China’s Sinograin sold 25,999 tonnes of imported genetically modified corn, or 13% of total offer, at an auction of state reserves on Friday. The state grain stockpiler sold 5,423 tonnes of imported non-GMO corn at auction on the same day, according to a notice on the company’s website.
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