Global Ag News for Aug 8.24

TOP HEADLINES

Strike in Argentina interrupts grain shipments at key soy processing ports

A labor strike launched by Argentine oilseed industry unionsnow in its second day has halted grains shipments from ports that host soy processing plants, the ports chamber said on Wednesday, as workers demand that wages stay ahead of high inflation.

Argentina is a major exporter of processed soy oil, widely used across industries for products ranging from foods to biodiesel.

The strike kicked off early on Tuesday by two industry unions, including the SOEA oilseed factory worker union, after they could not reach a deal.

SOEA’s leader Daniel Succi told Reuters that the unions are seeking wage upgrades above the country’s inflation rate, noting there have been disagreements with companies on when salary hikes can take place.

While the rate of rising consumer prices has slowed since President Javier Milei took office in December, accumulated inflation in the first half of this year nevertheless stood at 79%, according to official data.

Late Tuesday, the oilseed worker strike was extended for another 24 hours.

Succi warned that absent an invitation from companies to negotiate, the unions would evaluate further extending the work stoppage.

In response, industry leaders like Gustavo Idigoras, president of the CIARA oilseed industry chamber, described the strike as unreasonable. The chamber is one of the parties negotiating with the unions.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 4 1/4 in HRW, up 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 1/4; Soymeal up $1.80; Soyoil down 0.31.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 2 3/4 in SRW, unchanged in HRW, down 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 8 3/4; Soymeal down $4.50; Soyoil down 0.24.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 14 1/2 in SRW, up 10 3/4 in HRW, up 8 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal up $4.40; Soyoil down 1.75.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 13.7% in SRW, down 12.8% in HRW, down 18.5% in HRS; Corn is down 18.8%; Soybeans down 20.9%; Soymeal down 11.3%; Soyoil down 11.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans up 1 yuan; Soymeal down 7; Soyoil up 80; Palm oil up 34; Corn up 21 — Malaysian Palm is up 3.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 3 ringgit (+0.08%) at 3700.

 

There were changes in registrations (-161 Soyoil). Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 15 Corn; 10 Soybeans; 1,005 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 7 were: SRW Wheat down 8,653 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,166, Corn down 10,207, Soybeans up 2,705, Soymeal down 3,350, Soyoil down 182.

August Deliveries

• Soybeans
  • 8/6: 0
  • Total:  123
• Soybean Oil
  • 8/6: 17
  • Total: 1,351
• Soybean Meal
  • Total: 0

 

Northern Plains: A system is pushing a front through on Wednesday with scattered showers, and cooler air settling into the region going into next week. More showers are possible this weekend and next week as a couple of little systems pass through, though models disagree on the coverage and timing. The rainfall is likely too late for the wheat crop, but could be beneficial for corn and soybeans if it is not too heavy and does not cause flooding.

Central/Southern Plains: A front will move into the region Wednesday with a reinforcing shot of cooler air. The front may not get into the Southern Plains, however, leaving most of the cooler temperatures across the Central Plains. The largely stalled front will produce some waves of showers throughout the weekend and next week, but models disagree on the coverage, timing, and intensity of precipitation. Any rainfall would certainly be helpful for filling corn and soybeans. After a cooler weekend across the north, temperatures should rise again next week.

Midwest: A front brought in some milder air to the region and another front will push through over the next few days with another burst of cooler air. Models do not produce much precipitation with the front, but have some patches of showers moving through that will miss more areas than they hit. Dryness would not be favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but the forecast reduction in temperatures may offset some of the stress. The forecast for next week is questionable as some small disturbances may move through with periods of showers along the front stalled across the south, but models disagree with timing, coverage, and intensity of the rainfall. Temperatures should gradually rise throughout the week, but showers moving through may disrupt that.

Delta: Dry conditions and hot temperatures since last week have caused a significant drop in soil moisture in the region. A front moving into northern areas later this week will not produce any rain, but will depress temperatures at least a little bit going through the weekend. But with a front in the north, some showers may be possible next week. Models disagree on the timing and intensity of the potential rainfall though. Temperatures will be hotter to the south and drier conditions there will continue to lower soil moisture, unfavorable for filling cotton and soybeans.

Canadian Prairies: A system has brought scattered showers to the region this week and is finally moving off to the east, but it will continue some showers across the east through Thursday. Temperatures are also very cool and a reduction in winds and cloud cover could lead to very patchy frosts in some northwestern areas over the next couple of mornings. Temperatures will stay cool through the weekend, gradually rising next week. Showers may return by the middle of next week. The recent cooler and wetter conditions are too late for much of the wheat and canola crops in the region that are on their way to maturity after sustaining heat and dryness in July. In fact, the recent and forecast rain could lead to quality issues in some areas while delaying the early portions of harvest.

Brazil: A front has been producing widespread rain across the far south this week and continues on Wednesday. The front will get pushed a bit farther north with scattered showers for Thursday and Friday, getting into Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo. Wheat across the south could use the rainfall as it continues to progress. Northern wheat areas like Parana are much farther along and rainfall is much more helpful here. The front will bring in much colder air that could produce some frosts. Another burst of cold air moves in early next week as well. Limited damage to advanced wheat in Rio Grande do Sul and Parana are most at risk.

Argentina: A system is moving through the country, but did not produce much rainfall yet. Southeastern areas could see some rain through Thursday before the system is finally gone. Dryness elsewhere is a concern as soil moisture continues to fall across much of the country. A burst of much colder air will move through with the system and lead to frosts, with another burst of cooler air this weekend into early next week, though frost should not be harmful to vegetative wheat.

Europe: A front will go through the next couple of days and another looks to go through late week with showers targeting northern areas with anything of substance, and Germany and Poland especially. Poland will benefit but Germany is still too wet in a lot of areas for harvesting the remaining wheat or developing corn and other spring grains. Temperatures will be above normal between fronts and rise this weekend across most of the continent, being more stressful for areas that haven’t had much rain lately across the south. Northern areas appear to be active again next week.

Black Sea: A disturbance coming from Europe will produce a few showers for the next couple of days and a front coming through this weekend may produce more, but the widespread heavy rain that the region needs continues to be elusive. Above-normal temperatures will continue drought stress as well, though they will probably fall behind the front for a couple of days next week.

Australia: Some areas in Queensland could use some more rain for vegetative wheat, but eastern areas will stay dry for the next few days. Some showers may move off the Pacific into the region this weekend into next week that would be beneficial while a front or two scrapes through southeastern areas with some showers as well. Western areas have been more fortunate with periodic rainfall and a couple more fronts moving through Tuesday and Wednesday are bringing more, as will a front this weekend.

 

The player sheet for Aug. 7 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,500 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, sellers of 4,500 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries bought a total of 83,445 metric tons of food-quality wheat from Australia, Canada and the United States in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• VEGETABLE OILS PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer GASC said it bought 36,600 metric tons of sunflower oil in an international tender.
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, announced a massive tender for 3.8 million metric tons of wheat to cover imports between October 2024 and April 2025. The deadline for offers is Aug 12.

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Aug. 1.

• Corn est. range 500k – 1,200k tons, with avg of 850k
• Soybean est. range 500k – 1,200k tons, with avg of 913k

 

Brazil July Corn and Soybean Exports by Country: MDIC

Brazil’s Trade Ministry updates its website with exports by country of destination for July.

• July soybean shipments to China rose 31% vs the same period last year
• Jan.-July shipments were up 10% y/y

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 7.84 Million Tns In August – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 7.84 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 7.57 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME MONTH LAST YEAR
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.96 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 1.97 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME MONTH LAST YEAR
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.29 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 9.25 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME MONTH LAST YEAR

 

EU Wheat Harvest Seen at Lowest Since 2018, Strategie Says

The European Union’s soft-wheat production in 2024-25 is seen at the lowest in six years, as output in key producer France has plunged due to bad weather.

The EU’s crop is now expected to total 116.5 million tons, 5% less than was estimated a month ago, according to analysis firm Strategie Grains. That’s mostly due to a smaller crop in France which has suffered from heavy rains, and also due to a lower harvest in Germany, analysts said.

Wheat exports from the EU are also forecast to see a “large decline” compared with the level of 2023-24, especially with top producer France seeing shipments fall “very sharply” year-on-year, they said.

French farmers have called for government support, with their harvest expected to be the worst since 1983 due to excessive rains and a lack of sunshine that have damaged agricultural areas. The EU drop in crop sales could exacerbate pressures on governments which have been disbursing money to support farmers following protests across the continent earlier this year over soaring costs and stringent regulations.

While top wheat grower Russia is also expecting a smaller crop this year because of dry weather and frosts, the market remains well supplied thanks to bumper crops in the US.

That helped prices tumble to trade near the lowest in four years last month. Now wheat prices have been rallying in recent days, as major consumers Egypt and Algeria return to the market to take advantage.

 

 

 

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