Global Ag News For Dec 11.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Refining Companies Claim EPA Misapplied Renewable Fuel Standards

Refinery operators and marketers are challenging the Environmental Protection Agency’s denial of a requested waiver from renewable fuel standards, alleging the decision violated the law and was based on an incorrect interpretation of an agency regulation.

Alon Refining Krotz Springs Inc., HF Sinclair Refining & Marketing LLC, and HF Sinclair Parco Refining LLC argue the EPA’s denial of a small refinery exemption was incorrectly based on data from 2023 instead of the proper calendar year of 2024. That violated the Clean Air Act by not complying with what “a calendar year” means in the relevant statute, the petitioners told the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit Tuesday.

The agency’s own regulations additionally don’t require a refinery to meet the “small” definition for both the year of the requested exemption and the prior year, they argue.

The EPA runs the renewable fuel standards (RFS) program under the Clean Air Act, determining how much renewable fuel is required to be blended annually into the nation’s supply of gasoline and diesel fuel. Exemptions can be granted to small refiners if they show they’ve experienced disproportionate economic hardship.

“This case involves yet another attempt by EPA to unlawfully narrow the small-refinery hardship exemption,” the companies said in their consolidated brief.

The agency has faced several lawsuits over the past few years over how it sets its renewable fuel standards and which entities it hands out waivers to.

Here, the refining companies argued they met the definition of a small refinery in 2024, so they sought to waive compliance requirements for that year in 2025.

The companies are asking the DC Circuit to review and vacate the EPA’s denial decision.

Refiners aren’t the only entities looking at how RFS waivers work. Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota in October sent a letter to the heads of the EPA, Energy Department, and Securities and Exchange Commission asking them to look into whether small refiners were abusing the exemptions.

The companies in this case are represented by Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP and Sidley Austin LLP.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 in SRW, up 3 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 1 1/2; Soymeal up $1.80; Soyoil down 0.32.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 1/4 in SRW, down 5 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans down 13 1/2; Soymeal down $4.10; Soyoil down 0.91.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 6 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 43 1/2; Soymeal down $16.10; Soyoil down 1.26.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.7% in SRW, down 6.7% in HRW, down 2.4% in HRS; Corn is down 4.7%; Soybeans up 9.4%; Soymeal down 3.1%; Soyoil up 27.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 44 yuan; Soymeal up 4; Soyoil up 38; Palm oil up 70; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is unchanged.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were unchanged ringgit at 4063.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 47 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 179 Soymeal; 33 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 10 were: SRW Wheat up 6,592 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,858, Corn up 12,138, Soybeans down 9,608, Soymeal up 1,060, Soyoil up 2,646.

  

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 11 DECEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cold risks expected in the Northern Plains, Midwest/Northeast, while the West will remain warmer during the next 5-day period. Heavy rains limited to the Northwest, with snowfall in the Northern Plains/Midwest U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays cool with above-normal rainfall limited to Northeast Argentina, while Brazil experiences wet conditions and cooler temperatures.
• EUROPE: Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across Europe over the next week, with most regions experiencing below-normal precipitation, except the U.K., Spain, and Scandinavia.
• ASIA: Asia will see mostly near-normal to cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, with above normal temperatures in the East. Above-normal precipitation is expected in the Southeast and East Asia.

 Heavy rains may raise concerns for early corn/soybean progress across Central Brazil

What to Watch:

• Wet weather across the south Pampas
• Heavy rains in Central Brazil

CALM WEATHER IN MID-DECEMBER WILL SUPPORT HARVEST COMPLETION ACROSS AUSTRALIA

What to Watch:

• Heat is expected to transition from southwestern to southeastern Australia over the next 10 days
• Lack of pronounced precipitation anomalies along the southern crop areas

Brazil: Central Brazil has seen a vast improvement in soil moisture due to heavy rain over the last week, favoring developing to reproductive soybeans. Showers continue there for the foreseeable future. A stronger system moved through the south on Tuesday with widespread rainfall and pockets of heavy rain to improve soil moisture. Another front will bring heavier showers to south-central areas on Friday and Saturday. Conditions are either favorable or improving.

Argentina: Though the pattern has been slower with rainfall chances, soil moisture is still favorable after an active spring. A couple of chances for patchy rainfall continue this week and weekend, but rainfall is coming at a below-normal pace and next week is forecast to be much drier. Issues with some areas getting too dry for developing corn and soybeans will be a concern with time.

Northern Plains: A clipper moved through on Tuesday with scattered precipitation that included heavy snow in the northeast and strong winds. Two more clippers still need to move across the region through Saturday, producing more mixed precipitation and sending through a burst of cold air. The cold won’t last long with warmer air moving in early next week. With a storm track largely through Canada, the region may still pick up some precipitation next week.

Central/Southern Plains: The storm track to the north has allowed some warmer air into the region. However, a strong cold front will move through on Friday with another blast of colder air. That should be brief though as warmer air moves in next week. Precipitation is generally not expected, but a few spots could see some light amounts.

Midwest: A clipper moving through on Wednesday is bringing scattered showers through the region. Two more clippers will bring streaks of snow through on Thursday and then Friday into Saturday. Lake-effect snow will occur over the weekend as well. Another blast of extremely cold, arctic air is forecast again this weekend. It will be very intense and some areas may not make it above zero, but will only last a couple of days with warmer air moving in next week. The storm track will shift north into Canada, but some showers may still occur next week.

Delta: Recent precipitation in the Midwest produced a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system throughout the winter. Multiple clippers will move through the north this week, keeping the Delta region fairly dry and promoting slow falls in water levels on the rivers. Some showers will be possible around the middle of next week with a front passing through, but rainfall amounts continue to trend below normal.

Europe: An active pattern over the last several weeks has most areas in good shape with soil moisture. Dormant wheat across the north and central are in good shape. Across the south, some showers will move through Spain over the next several days, but Italy and the Balkans will be dry. More rain would be favorable in Italy, but there isn’t a concern just yet.

Black Sea: Systems moving across northern Europe will bring some showers through the region through the weekend. Dryness and drought are still a concern this winter as wheat went dormant late and largely in questionable condition. Some southern areas have been too warm for dormancy, though some cooler air will work through over the weekend.

 

The player sheet for 12/10 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 500 corn, sellers of 1,500 soybeans, and buyers of 1,000 soymeal.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN AND SOYMEAL SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private export sales of 467,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans, including 136,000 tons to China and 331,000 tons to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. The USDA also confirmed sales of 120,000 tons of soybean cake and meal to Poland for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Thursday
• WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender
• FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer bought about 120,000 tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Wednesday seeking the same volume, European traders said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is December 16.
• SOFT WHEAT, DURUM AND BARLEY TENDERS: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase about 125,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat, 100,000 tons of durum wheat and 125,000 tons of feed barley, European traders said on Wednesday. The origin was optional. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is December 11.
• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States or South America in a private deal late on Tuesday without an international tender being issued, European traders said on Wednesday.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal late on Tuesday without issuing an international tender, European traders said on Wednesday. The corn can be sourced from any worldwide origins but excluding the Black Sea region.
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of animal feed importers in Thailand is believed to have purchased around 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat on Tuesday, European traders said on Wednesday. The precise volume was unclear, but traders reported one consignment bought for January 2026 shipment.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, European traders said on Tuesday. The deadline for price offers is December 22. Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued multiple international tenders to purchase 50,000 tons of rice, with price offers due on November 20, December 1, December 9 and December 15, European traders said.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from the Trading Corporation of Pakistan to purchase 100,000 metric tons of rice for supply to Bangladesh was estimated at $394.95 CIF liner out, European traders said. The deadline for submitting price offers was November 28.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is December 10.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 58,244 metric tons of rice to be mainly sourced from China, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers is December 11.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Soybean Crushings at 237.1M Bushels in October: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 9.9% higher than same period last year
• Crude oil production 11.2% higher than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks up 11.9% y/y

 

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 476.4M Bu in October

The following table is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 2.8% higher than in October 2024
• In total, mills consumed 524m bu of corn in October, a 2% increase over last year
• DDGS production rose to 1.928m tons

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Mostly Unchanged at 22.51M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.724 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.105m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.107m

 

CROP SURVEY: Brazil 2025-26 Soybean Output Seen at 179.2M Tons

Brazil soybean production est. seen 1.6m tons higher than the national forecast agency’s previous est. in November, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of six analysts.

• The range of estimates varied from 177.6m tons to 182.9m tons
• Brazil’s corn crop seen 2.1m tons higher at 141m tons

 

China’s Sinograin sells majority of soybeans in first auction in 3 months, sources say

China’s state stockpiler Sinograin on Thursday sold around 397,000 metric tons of imported soybeans, or 77.5% of the total volume offered, according to two traders.

The average transaction price for the soybeans from the 2022 and 2023 crops was 3,935.3 yuan ($557.38) per metric ton, with delivery scheduled from late December through March, the sources said.

Sinograin announced the auction of 512,500 tons on Monday, marking its first such sale in three months after a trade truce with Washington boosted China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans.

Market participants are watching for further major soybean auctions by Sinograin, which they anticipate could be making space for soybean purchases from the U.S.

 

Malaysian palm oil output to top 20 million tons for first time

Malaysia’s palm oil production is on track to exceed 20 million metric tons this year for the first time, supported by more efficient harvesting, improved labour availability and output from maturing plantations, the industry regulator told Reuters.

Record production in the world’s second-largest palm oil exporting country is likely to lift inventories, which could weigh on benchmark Malaysian futures FCPOc3, already trading near a five-month low. POI/

Malaysia is expected to produce between 20 million and 20.5 million tons this year, assuming favourable weather and continued harvesting efficiency, Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir, director general at the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, said on Wednesday.

“Crossing the 20 million ton threshold would therefore represent not merely a statistical achievement, but a historic milestone reflecting both supportive market conditions and structural improvements in plantation productivity,” he said.

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks in November rose to a more than six-and-a-half-year high, as weaker exports coincided with the second-highest production ever recorded for the month, MPOB data showed earlier on Wednesday.

The rise in inventories reflects ongoing export headwinds, Ahmad Parveez said.

“Indonesia’s stronger price competitiveness, supported by lower export levies, has weighed on Malaysia’s shipments and contributed to higher inventory levels,” he added.

Indonesia has cut the export tax on crude palm oil shipments in December to $74 per ton, down from $124 in November.

Ahmad Parveez expects inventories to edge higher by the end of December though he anticipates export demand to improve with restocking ahead of Chinese New Year.

Palm oil imports by China, a key global buyer, typically rise ahead of the Chinese New Year as demand increases for snacks, confectionery, fried foods and bakery items.

“That said, the risk of inventories approaching or marginally exceeding 3 million tons cannot be entirely ruled out should export performance remain weak for longer than expected or if demand recovery is slower than seasonal norms,” Ahmad Parveez said.

 

Indonesia Suspends Palm Oil Plantation’s Operation After Floods

Govt suspends operations of a palm oil plantation and mill owned by PT Tri Bahtera Srikandi in North Sumatra to prevent further environmental disruption in the flood-hit province, according to the environment ministry in a statement.

• Ministry asks parent company PT Sago Nauli Plantation to submit permits, environmental impact assessments (AMDAL) and proof of mitigation measures
• Suspension will be lifted after the company proves regulatory compliance
• Serious violations may lead to further administrative and legal sanctions
• Ministry also seals several mining sites in West Sumatra, according to a separate statement that didn’t mention further details
• Previously, operations at four companies were temporarily suspended by the ministry

 

Trump Sets $700 Million to Improve Soil, Water on Farms

The Trump administration is launching a $700 million pilot program to help farmers more easily adopt “regenerative” practices that improve the health of soil and water.

The program — part of President Donald Trump’s Make America Healthy Again push — aims to cut red tape for growers seeking to change their operations in ways that limit losses from wind or runoff, according to a joint release from US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Mehmet Oz, the administration’s chief of Medicare and Medicaid.

“In order to continue to be the most productive and efficient growers in the world, we must protect our topsoil from unnecessary erosion and improve soil health and land stewardship,” Rollins said in the release. “Today’s announcement encourages priorities while supporting farmers who choose to transition to regenerative agriculture.”

The release didn’t specify how much farmers may receive for adopting regenerative practices. Regenerative agriculture can include reducing or eliminating the plowing of fields or planting so-called “cover crops” to limit wind erosion between harvests.

The move comes after the Trump administration earlier this year canceled $3 billion in funding under former President Joe Biden’s so-called Climate-Smart Commodities program, citing high administrative fees that limited payouts to farmers.

Farm Action, a nonpartisan group advocating for fair and sustainable food systems, said it welcomed the program. The group is against large multinational companies from receiving benefits at the expense of smaller farms.

“Regenerative agriculture is not only better for the land and public health, but it also creates a path to rebuilding farmer profitability and reducing dependency on costly chemicals and other inputs controlled by a few giant companies,” said Angela Huffman, Farm Action’s president.

Stephanie Feldstein, population and sustainability director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said more details are needed.

“Farmers trying to do the right thing for our environment need all the support they can get, but without clear standards this ill-defined pilot program isn’t enough,” she said in a statement.

 

Brazil soybean growing season begins on schedule amid favorable conditions

2025/26 BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 178.3 [174.1–182.6] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Brazil soybean production is largely unchanged at 178.3 [174.1–182.6] million tons, amid steady sowing progress nearing the finish line on schedule. Overall declining soil moisture levels due to hot and dry weather over the past few weeks warrant attention, but wetter days are ahead, relieving short-term concerns as crops enter the prime growing season with little issues. Our current median estimate is above the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 175 million tons (released on 09 December), which assumes total soy sowings at 48.8 million hectares and a national level yield of 3.59 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 49.1 million hectares and 3.63 tph, respectively). Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has lately pegged its total soybean production and area at 177.6 million tons and 49.1 million hectares, respectively.

Mostly moderate weather conditions supported the last stages of sowing effort over the past two weeks, helping crops move forward and enter the early vegetative growth phase on schedule. Brazil’s top soybean producer, Mato Grosso in the Central-West, received below normal precipitation during the period, albeit in the last few days its intensity has increased. Mato Grosso’s top soil moisture conditions have been below last year’s levels since early November, but overall still remain healthy and more rains are in the forecast through next week, easing concerns. Other major producing states such as Rio Grande do Sul in the South and Goiás in the Central-West, however, continue to show declining soil moisture levels, warranting close monitoring. Temperature patterns were largely mixed during late November/early December, with warm conditions in the northern parts of the Central-West/Southeast and the southern half of the South, and cool conditions in the rest of the crop regions. However, cooler than normal temperatures have been dominating most of Brazil’s key soybean areas over the past few days and are expected to be in store through the end of the month, warranting attention.

As of 05 December, Brazil’s soybeans were 90.3% planted nationally according to the latest CONAB’s crop progress report (released on 08 December), behind last year’s pace of 94.1% but ahead of the 5-year average of 89.8%. The LSEG Weather Research team’s lately released ENSO outlook for December-February suggests that the chances of La Niña during the period are high, hinting above-average rainfall patterns in northern Brazil and potential dryness in its southern counterpart. The potential impacts from a La Niña event on Brazilian crops are difficult to predict as there is little statistically significant relationship between ENSO episodes and crop yield levels in Brazil (unlike in Argentina which displays a strong correlation between the two). Soil moisture status and province-level weather conditions should all be monitored closely, as the early growing season begins.

 

Paraguay soybean production slightly up on healthy soil moisture despite recent dry weather

2025/26 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 10.9 [10.3–11.5] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Paraguay soybean production is fractionally (<1%) increased to 10.9 [10.3–11.5] million tons, as the overall soil moisture conditions in core producing areas of the southeastern Oriental Region remain healthy despite recent dry weather. Following a dry November/early December, wetness is likely to return this week and linger into late December, warranting attention as the crop’s prime growing season begins. Our median production estimate is slightly below the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 11.0 million tons, which assumes national level area and yield at 3.8 million hectares and 2.89 tons per hectare (tph), respectively (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 3.71 million hectares and 2.95 tph, respectively).

 

Heavy rains may disrupt early corn, soybean progress in Brazil, LSEG says

Heavy rains forecast across central Brazil over the next two weeks may disrupt early corn and soybean progress in the area, LSEG Research & Insights said on Wednesday, with precipitation expected to exceed normal levels by up to 175 millimeters.

Wet weather (40-175 mm above normal) is expected across Brazil except the far South, where dry conditions up to 45 mm below normal will continue, a weather forecast showed.

“Heavy rains may be a concern for early corn and soybean progress across Center West/Southeast Brazil’s crop belts,” LSEG Research & Insights said.

The so-called Antarctic Oscillation is developing into a negative phase, supporting wet weather patterns across Brazil, it added.

In Argentina, the Pampas region will see dry spells (10-70 mm below normal), which may favor wheat harvesting but could stress corn and soybeans.

 

LSEG keeps forecast for Argentina’s corn crop but warns of weather risks

LSEG Research & Insights on Wednesday maintained its forecast for Argentina’s 2025/26 corn production at 54.4 million metric tons this season, but warned that recent and expected dry weather conditions pose risks to yields.

Soil moisture is adequate in Buenos Aires, but Cordoba, San Luis, Santa Fe and Entre Rios have seen precipitation deficits, it said in a report.

Light rainfall last week improved conditions slightly in Cordoba and Santa Fe, but more rain is needed, according to LSEG.

Weather forecasts predict mostly cool, dry weather in key corn regions for the next 10 days.

Long-range forecasts suggest recent and expected dry conditions may persist into March with warmer temperatures, potentially reducing yields, the report added.

Early corn is currently in good condition thanks to previous healthy soil moisture, while the second-crop corn or late-corn planting is ongoing.

 

 

 

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