Global Ag News for Dec 18.24

TOP HEADLINES

Egypt to Receive First Cargo of Delayed Russian Wheat Purchase

Egypt is set to receive the first consignment of a delayed order of 430,000 tons of Russian wheat, according to people familiar with the matter.

• The wheat is aboard the Wadi Almolouk, said the people, who asked not to be identified as they were not authorized to speak publicly
  • It marks the first shipment of the order that was originally planned for shipping in October after being booked the month before
• The vessel is carrying about 63,000 tons of milling wheat, according to shipping lineups from Logistic OS
• Bloomberg ship-tracking data shows the Wadi Almolouk neared the port of Alexandria on Monday and is currently anchored in the area
• The chairman for Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities couldn’t be immediately reached for comment
• Separately, the full 430,000 ton GASC purchase will be fulfilled, the country’s supply minister, Sherif Farouk, said in an interview in Cairo on Monday

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 3/4 in SRW, up 1 1/2 in HRW, up 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 10 1/4; Soymeal down $2.30; Soyoil down 0.82.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 5 1/2 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans down 26 1/2; Soymeal down $1.80; Soyoil down 2.86.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 1 1/4 in SRW, up 13 1/4 in HRW, up 7 in HRS; Corn is up 11 1/4; Soybeans down 27 1/2; Soymeal down $6.30; Soyoil down 1.94.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 12.9% in SRW, down 13.7% in HRW, down 17.2% in HRS; Corn is down 5.7%; Soybeans down 25.2%; Soymeal down 26.2%; Soyoil down 16.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 21 yuan; Soymeal down 40; Soyoil down 180; Palm oil down 122; Corn down 18 — Malaysian Palm is down 196.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 196 ringgit (-4.15%) at 4529.

 

There were changes in registrations (-20 Corn). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 95 Corn; 235 Soybeans; 879 Soyoil; 1,665 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 17 were: SRW Wheat up 8,534 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,623, Corn up 1,226, Soybeans up 1,338, Soymeal up 1,232, Soyoil up 1,846.

 

Brazil: Overall good weather conditions continue with scattered wet season showers in central Brazil and fronts continuing to come up from Argentina with scattered showers for southern states. This general pattern is forecast to continue through the end of the year at least, favoring flowering to filling soybeans and developing corn.

Argentina: A front that moves through Wednesday and Thursday will bring some isolated showers, along with another one or two this weekend and early next week. Though precipitation is spotty, it is favored to hit some of the driest areas in the country, especially the high production state of Cordoba. Other areas will be missed though, and that could lead to other dry areas developing for the country.

Northern Plains: Colder air is building up in the Canadian Prairies and will seep into the region over the next couple of days. More widespread cold should follow behind a clipper that moves through Wednesday night and Thursday. The clipper could bring through some needed precipitation to northern areas in the form of a heavy band of snow. Any cold should not last long as warmer air spreads back in again this weekend.

Central/Southern Plains: A front produced showers for southeastern areas on Monday that continues there through Wednesday, but wheat areas in the west will be drier, a continued pattern since a wet November. The pattern may be a little more favorable for precipitation next week.

Midwest: A system brought scattered showers on Monday, especially near the Ohio River. Another system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday will produce more scattered showers, again heavier near the Ohio River. A clipper moving through Thursday and Friday will bring through a band of heavier snow to the north, while also bringing through some briefly colder air. The pattern stays active next week and some drought reduction is possible as temperatures rise well above normal to end the year.

Lower Mississippi: Recent showers in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys gave a bump to water levels on the river and the pattern is favoring more heavy rain in the basin this week with several systems and fronts, especially in the Ohio Valley. That should help to give a longer bump in water levels along the river, removing restrictions for transport across the Lower Mississippi for a while.

Europe: Several waves of systems, fronts, and showers are forecast to move through the continent through early next week, keeping up overly wet soils in the northwest, but maintaining or improving soil moisture for most other areas. Spain is forecast to be on the lighter end, though, and could use more rain.

Black Sea: Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter for when the wheat breaks dormancy in the spring. Scattered showers fell over the weekend and a couple of systems are forecast to move through this week that could be beneficial.

Australia: A front brought some isolated showers to small parts of southern Australia on Monday, but the pattern is certainly drier to end the year. That helps with the remaining wheat and canola harvest, but will dry out soils for cotton and sorghum after recent rains had improved conditions there.

 

The player sheet for Dec. 17 had funds: net sellers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 8,000 corn, sellers of 8,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 8,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday confirmed private sales of 170,400 metric tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/25 marketing year.
• SOYBEAN SALES: USDA also confirmed private sales of 187,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to Spain, and 132,000 tons for delivery to unknown destinations. Both are for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 77,220 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S. and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Dec. 19.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, traders said on Tuesday. The deadline for submission of price offers is Jan. 1, 2025.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.

 PENDING TENDERS

• FEED WHEAT TENDER: Importers in the Philippines tendered to purchase around 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat
• DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 7 and arrive in Japan by March 6, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Dec. 18.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Dec. 13 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen slightly higher than last week at 1.079m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.874m bbl vs 22.648m a week ago

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 3.9%

November placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 1.79m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

• Estimates range from -7.4% to -1.1% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of Dec. 1 seen falling by 0.1% y/y to 12.01m head
• Marketings seen falling 1.9% y/y

 

SovEcon Cuts Russia’s Wheat Crop Forecast to Lowest Since 2021

Consultant SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat production by 3m metric tons to 78.7m tons, it says in a note.

• SovEcon expects 2025 wheat harvest to be lowest since 2021, when production totaled 76m tons and significantly below five-year average of 88.2m tons
• Winter wheat production is now estimated at 50.7m tons, down 3.6m tons from previous forecast
  • This reflects lower forecast for winter wheat yield and reduced pre-harvest winter wheat area
• Spring wheat production has been revised upward by 0.6m tons to 27.9m tons

 

Recent snowfall keeps Russian wheat production unchanged

2025/26 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 80.3 [78.7-84.3] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Russian wheat production is maintained at 80.3 [78.7-84.3] million tons (MMT), 55.3 MMT of winter wheat and 25.0 MMT of spring wheat, despite recent favorable snow precipitation. Our estimate does not include the occupied Ukrainian Oblasts.

The past two weeks featured above normal temperatures throughout the country. Higher precipitation, and thicker snow coverage were noted in the Central, Volga, and Southern Districts, which helped to replenish low moisture reserves.

According to the latest weather forecast, temperatures in the European parts will be higher than usual, especially in the North Caucasus and Southern Districts, which might cause snowmelt in the region. LSEG’s extended weather forecast for December predicts widespread warmth in the European parts, with some potential for cold spell in the continental Russia, as well as Volga District. Thankfully snow cover is likely to stand in that area, which should protect wheat during the dormancy period. We will monitor satellite imagery and weather conditions in the upcoming weeks and update our forecast accordingly.

 

China pledges to ensure stable production, supply of food, key farm products

China will ensure stable production and supply of grain and important agricultural products, state news agency Xinhua quoted the annual central rural work conference as saying.

The country will stabilise the sown area of grains, and step up efforts to raise yield per unit area of grain and oil crops, according to the conference held in Beijing on Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

China’s Sinograin to stop selling imported corn from stockpiles

China’s state stockpiler Sinograin said on Wednesday it would stop selling imported corn from its inventories, part of its efforts to prop up local corn prices at 4-1/2 year lows.

Sinograin also said earlier this month that it would increase purchases and storage of domestically produced corn.

Farmers in China, the world’s No. 2 corn producer, have been grappling with plunging corn prices due to a bumper crop and weakening demand.

China’s most active corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange DCCcv1 have tumbled 14% so far this year to 2,175 yuan ($298.54) per metric ton, near a low point marked last week that was the weakest since May 2020.

Corn production in China hit a record 294.92 million tons his year, a gain of 2.1% on the back of efforts by Beijing efforts to increase production and ensure food security.

But some of the crop has been of poor quality after warmer weather led to issues with mould, analysts said.

China’s corn imports plunged 91.8% in November from the same month the previous year to just 300,000 metric tons, customs data showed. For the first 11 months of the year, imports shrank 39.9% to 13.32 million tons. China, the world’s biggest corn buyer, imports mainly from Brazil and the United States.

 

Malaysia’s Crude Palm Oil Export Tax Will Be at 10% in January

The gazetted price for crude palm oil has been set at 5,001.72 ringgit a ton, which incurs the maximum export tax of 10%, according to a circular from the customs department posted on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s website.

• NOTE: Export duty structure starts at 3% when FOB prices for CPO are in the 2,250-2,400 ringgit per ton range
• Maximum tax rate is 10% when prices are above 4,050 ringgit per ton

 

Malaysia Turns to China for Investments in Its Biomass Sector

Malaysia’s government is seeking investments from China to develop its biomass industry, according to a minister.

Each palm oil mill in Malaysia can produce 6 to 7 megawatts of electricity, Johari Abdul Ghani, the nation’s plantation and commodities minister, said at the Malaysia-China Summit 2024 on Wednesday. All the mills in the world’s second-biggest palm oil producer can produce 2,500 to 3,000 megawatts of electricity, he added.

“We have a lot of waste from the 448 palm oil mills,” Johari said. “This is an opportunity for the renewable energy sector.”

Malaysia has also invited Chinese investors to build Sabah’s and Sarawak’s first oleochemicals plants, according to the minister. He also called for Chinese investments into Malaysia’s green energy projects.

China is the biggest buyer of Malaysia’s agriculture commodities, with shipments valued at $4.4 billion in 2023.

 

US Lawmakers May Include Ethanol Measure in Spending Bill

US ethanol producers may be on the brink of getting the green light from Congress to sell higher blends of their corn-based biofuel nationwide, a long-elusive goal that the industry considers crucial to its future.

Key industry stakeholders have been assured that a stopgap government-funding measure will include language making a higher-ethanol blend known as E15 available year-round across the US, according to people close to the matter. Environmental restrictions now preclude sales of the fuel containing 15% ethanol during the summer across much of the country.

Congressional leaders are nearing an agreement on a three-month stopgap spending bill that would avert a government shutdown. A final text of the measure is still being assembled and last-minute changes could derail the E15 plans.

The ethanol industry has spent more than a decade fighting to expand access to the higher blend amid opposition from oil refiners and environmentalists. Yet the rise of electric vehicles has led to a growing alliance between agriculture and oil producers.

The American Petroleum Institute — the powerful oil lobby — has united with farm groups to support the bipartisan E15 bill from Republican Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska. The legislation would also preserve access to lower-ethanol blends, such as the conventional 10% variety widely available across the US.

Most of the gasoline sold in the US contains 10% ethanol, while selling higher E15 through the summer months has been generally off limits without a waiver from the Environmental Protection Agency.

The measure would potentially increase demand for corn at a time when lower crop prices have eroded farmer revenues in the US. The nation already uses almost 140 million metric tons of the grain — or more than one third of its harvest — for biofuel production.

 

 

 

 

 

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