Global Ag News For Dec 19.2025

TOP HEADLINES

USDA Official Casts Doubt Over a Second Round of Farm Aid

The US Department of Agriculture is unlikely to do a second-round package of aid for struggling farmers struggling in the midst of trade tensions and low crop prices.

That’s according to Richard Fordyce, an agency undersecretary, who spoke in an interview on Thursday and cited current budget constraints.

“We’re kind of where we are and that’s kind of going to be it — just based on dollar availability” at the USDA, Fordyce said in an interview with Bloomberg. He was unclear if Congress might step in to contribute more funds for additional aid.

His comments come after the Trump administration last week announced a $12 billion bailout for farmers. Growers have responded to the funds by welcoming the relief, but saying that it’s unlikely to kickstart a lasting recovery for the American farm economy.

Meanwhile, Fordyce said the USDA next week plans to announce the crop-specific rates that will determine how much financial help individual farmers can expect from the aid package. Crop producers have been eager to know the per-acre rates that commodities like soybeans, corn, wheat, rice and sorghum will receive because it is key information they can use to talk to banks and lenders and plan for next year.

The agency, Fordyce said, has been collecting acreage data submitted by farmers to help them fine tune the rates based on how many need help. Growers have until Friday to submit the information.

“They’re going to be unique to the crop, based on cost of production, based on the price of that crop,” Fordyce said of the rates. “We just don’t have enough money to pay 100% of the difference between the cost of production and the price, but we’re going to do all we can.”

The help comes as the agriculture industry has been caught up in a trade war. US tariffs and retaliation from trading partners shifted typical export flows, including pushing China to avoid American soybeans for much of this year.

China recently resumed sourcing oilseeds from the US to meet a 12-million ton pledge the US says Beijing agreed to following a late October meeting between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/4 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 1 3/4; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil down 0.10.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 22 1/2 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans down 27; Soymeal down $3.80; Soyoil down 2.10.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 31 in SRW, down 10 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/2; Soybeans down 85 3/4; Soymeal down $22.30; Soyoil down 4.03.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.1% in SRW, down 7.7% in HRW, down 3.4% in HRS; Corn is down 3.2%; Soybeans up 5.2%; Soymeal down 3.2%; Soyoil up 20.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans down 1 yuan; Soymeal down 9; Soyoil down 94; Palm oil down 68; Corn down 6 — Malaysian Palm is down 75.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 75 ringgit (-1.88%) at 3905.

 

There were changes in registrations (-1 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 1,130 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 184 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 18 were: SRW Wheat up 4,428 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,118, Corn down 6,158, Soybeans down 8,672, Soymeal down 8,207, Soyoil down 7,451.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 18 DECEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Upcoming warmth will be accompanied by a dry, quiet weather pattern until the very end of the month when conditions may trend wetter in a favorable outlook for U.S. winter wheat
• SOUTH AMERICA: Cool and dry weather is likely to prevail across most of South America in January, potentially heightening drought risks for Argentina and Southern Brazil crops
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Favorably dry conditions are in store for the Vietnam Central Highlands coffee areas for the next 1-2 weeks leading up to the harvest stage
• AFRICA: Coastal rains will persist through the next couple weeks along the coastal cocoa regions of West Africa, potentially damaging the crop in its harvest stage
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Madden-Julian Oscilation (MJO) is likley to be in a Phase 2 event when the calendar flips to the new year, supporting the prospects for a round of U.S. cold risks and reinforcing South America dryness

 

COLD RISKS MAY RETURN IN JANUARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN U.S., WHILE NORTHERN AREAS ARE LIKELY TO THAW

What to Watch:

• Frequent cold risks are most likely over the southern U.S. Plains and Midwest in January, while the northern tier of the country and Canada are expected to warm up
• An active storm track is likely to extend along the Canadian Prairies next month, with generally dry conditions across the U.S.
• The combination of cold risks with a dry January outlook spanning the Southern U.S. Plains and Midwest suggest that wheat could be threatened by winterkill 

 

Brazil: A front brought enhanced showers across the south earlier this week, helping to maintain soil moisture. Another front is forecast to move into the south on Sunday and may be stuck there for most of next week. Showers have been less intense across central Brazil over the last week, but the coverage has been good, which is still improving soil moisture. Those showers continue, especially in Mato Grosso and Goias and farther north. Overall conditions continue to be either favorable or improving.

Argentina: A front brought scattered showers through the country earlier this week, which brought some needed rain to some areas that were starting to dry out a bit. Another front moves through this weekend with widespread rainfall. That front may stall across the far north for next week as well. And despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

Northern Plains: A system is exiting along the border on Thursday, but strong winds and some light snow could create some blizzard conditions in North Dakota. A quick burst of colder air is moving through as well. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday and the region will be in the way of the overall storm track near the border through next week. That may continue to bring through a few showers and changing temperatures, but an overall warmer trend is occurring while the colder air is forecast to remain largely in Canada until after Christmas.

Central/Southern Plains: Warmer air is in place and will continue through Christmas with little exception, and could be record high next week. A front will sweep through with some briefly milder air and a few showers early Thursday, but drier and warmer conditions are largely expected for a little while longer. That is not a good combination for winter wheat, which is seeing soil moisture falling. It is a slow process in the winter, but will have detrimental effects if this keeps up over the season. Warmer air may awaken some wheat as well, which would reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns.

Midwest: A system will bring through some showers and another brief burst of colder temperatures on Thursday, initiating some brief lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes. Another system may do something a bit similar but with fewer showers this weekend. The region will be in the way of the overall storm track along the border through next week, but should be overall warmer with lighter showers through the end of the year. The warmer air should cause significant melting of snow and get that moisture into the soil column.

Delta: A few showers will move through on Thursday, but showers will be hard to come by as a general below-normal precipitation pattern continues. Water levels continue to be quite low, though some warmer air up north will melt some of the snowpack in the Midwest and give a little boost to the rivers as well. It just will not be enough and more precipitation is needed.

Europe: A secondary storm track has meant scattered showers across the Mediterranean earlier this week. More showers are forecast there again this weekend and next week. Some needed rainfall is forecast for Italy and parts of Spain. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat.

Black Sea: Dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition. It continues to be warm and dry into next week, unfavorable for winter wheat. The next chance for significant precipitation comes around Christmas and followed by some colder air. With how warm it has been, winter hardiness may not be sufficient to survive the burst of cold as much of the region is snow-free.

 

The player sheet for 12/18 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 8,500 corn, buyers of 3,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 114,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of animal feed importers in Thailand is believed to have purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a private deal this week without issuing an international tender, European traders said on Friday.
• RICE TENDER: Iranian firm Jahad Sabz Company has issued a tender to purchase 10,000 metric tons of rice sourced from Pakistan, a copy of the tender sent to European traders on Thursday said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is December 30.

PENDING TENDERS

• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers in the tender is December 23.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soy, Corn and Wheat for Week Ending Nov. 27

The following  shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Nov. 27, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 509k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Japan with 458k tons
• Report was initially delayed due to the US government shutdown; click here for USDA’s announcement and schedule for releasing reports missed during this period

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending Nov. 27

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Nov. 27, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 12.4k tons of the 33k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

China’s Sinograin sells one-third of soybeans in auction, Mysteel reports

China’s Sinograin sold 32.7% of the 550,000 metric tons of soybeans offered in its third auction this month, consultancy Mysteel reported on Friday, down from 77.5% in the first auction, reflecting weaker buying interest as the state stockpiler works to make room for U.S. soybean arrivals.

Sinograin sold 179,702 metric tons of imported soybeans from the 2022 and 2023 crops at 3,750.83 yuan ($532.74) per metric ton, with deliveries scheduled from January through late May, Mysteel said.

The auctions come as Beijing ramps up purchases of U.S. cargoes following a trade truce with Washington in late October, despite a domestic supply glut driven by record South American arrivals and sluggish demand.

The average prices and auction clearance rates have fallen in successive rounds. In the previous two auctions, roughly 720,000 tons were sold in total, representing 70% of the offered volume, with average prices at 3,935.3 yuan and 3,852 yuan per ton, respectively.

The lower auction clearance rate “reflects the fact that China fundamentally has sufficient soybean supplies,” a China-based trader said.

China has purchased more than 7 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans since October, three traders told Reuters, putting it more than halfway toward a 12-million-ton target cited by some senior U.S. officials.

Beijing does not publish official data on its grain and oilseed inventories, but traders estimate state stockpiler Sinograin is holding 40 million to 45 million metric tons of soybeans, enough to cover about five months of consumption.

Traders have said they expect roughly 4 million tons to be offered in the current cycle of auctions.

 

Argentina Exchange Lifts Wheat Estimate by 6.3%, Boosting Record

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is raising its estimate for Argentina’s wheat crop by 6.3% to 27.1m metric tons, and said it doesn’t rule out further increases, according to a weekly report.

• “The wheat harvest continues to deliver record results, with yields coming in above predictions that were already higher than historical averages”
• “We’re not ruling out further revisions as harvesting progresses in the southeastern part of the agricultural region, where there’s still a significant volume to be collected”

 

EU Raises 2025-26 Grain Output Forecast on Wheat, Barley Crops

The EU’s total grain production is now estimated at 287.2m tons in the 2025-26 season, up from a November forecast of 286.9m tons, the European Commission said in its latest outlook.

• The soft-wheat forecast was raised to 134.4m tons, from 134.2m tons
• The barley outlook was raised to 55.7m tons, from 55.6m tons
• The corn crop was raised to 57.8m tons, from 57.6m tons

 

Russia Harvested 147m Tons of Grain in 2025, Minister Says

Russia has harvested over 147m tons of grain this year in bunker weight, Agricultural Minister Oksana Lut says at televised government meeting.

• In net weight grain harvest to amount to 137m tons, including 90m tons of wheat
• Estimate includes harvest on occupied territories
• 97.5% of crop area has been harvested
• Quality of grain this year is higher than last year

 

SovEcon Raises 2025 Russia Wheat Crop Estimate on Siberia Yields

Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest is now seen at 88.8m tons, up from a previous estimate of 88.6m tons, consultancy SovEcon said in a note.

• That’s mainly due to stronger-than-expected yields in Siberia
  • “Despite adverse weather earlier in the season, the harvested area ultimately approached average levels,” SovEcon Managing Director Andrey Sizov said
• Total grains production now estimated at 136.2m tons, up by 0.8m tons from a November forecast
  • Barley crop estimate was increased by 0.1m tons to 19.4m tons, on better yields in Siberia and the Urals
  • Corn forecast remains unchanged at 12.7m tons
• Estimate for 2026 wheat crop is unchanged at 83.8m tons
  • “So far, no material weather risks are evident, and the winter wheat area is in line with our expectations”
  • Pre-harvest wheat area seen at 26.3m hectares, down from 26.9m hectares in the current season

 

Indonesia’s B50 road test started 2 weeks ago, aiming for mandatory use H2 2026, minister says

Indonesia started road tests two weeks ago for biodiesel containing 50% palm oil, a mix known as B50, energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia said on Friday.

He said the testing will take around six months and reiterated that the mandatory use of B50 will likely begin in the second half of 2026.

 

MPOC Sees Palm Oil Between 3,800-4,100 Ringgit/Ton in January

Palm oil prices are expected to remain between 3,800-4,100 ringgit a ton in January, as production enters a seasonal lull while demand strengthens ahead of major festivals, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council.

• “The first quarter is typically the seasonal low for production, while demand is expected to improve ahead of the Lunar New Year and Ramadan, supporting a drawdown in stocks,” the council said in a Friday statement
• However, spillover weakness from energy markets, as well as abundant supplies of rival oilseeds, will cap any sustained recovery in prices and keep the tropical oil in a narrow trading range, MPOC said
• Malaysian palm exports are forecast to rise to 16.2m tons in 2026
  • Production seen easing to 19.7m tons as oil palm trees enter a resting phase following solid performance this year
• Palm’s price competitiveness has improved relative to soybean oil and other rival vegetable oils, which will likely translate to a pickup in global demand in the near term
  • Recent weakness in palm prices seen as temporary and “may present an attractive opportunity for key destination markets to rebuild inventories”
• Indian palm imports expected to “improve notably” in 1Q, supported by higher demand during the country’s wedding season
  • Palm olein has also become significantly more competitive in China’s domestic market
• In Indonesia, stockpiles are expected to contract by year-end
  • Exports forecast at 26.5m tons in 2025; production seen at 49m tons
  • Domestic consumption seen at 23m tons, comprising of 10m tons for food use and 13m tons for biodiesel
• NOTE: Malaysia is the world’s second-biggest palm oil producer, Indonesia is the largest

 

South Africa Crops Body Cuts 2025 Wheat-Output Forecast 2.1%

The expected production of wheat for the 2025 season is 1.99 million tons compared with a previous forecast of 2.03 million tons, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee says in a statement.

• Forecast for 2025 season is 2.9% bigger than 2024’s harvest of 1.93 million tons
• The estimated area for wheat is 517,300 hectares, of which 70% is planted in the Western Cape province, 11% in the Free State and 7.7% in the Northern Cape
• Total production of winter crops, which also include barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines, is estimated at 2.72 million tons

 

US generated fewer renewable blending credits in November, EPA says

The U.S. generated fewer renewable blending credits in November than in October, data from the Environmental Protection Agency showed on Thursday.

About 1.14 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in November, compared with about 1.28 billion in October, the data showed.

Credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending fell to 603 million in November from 667 million in the prior month.

The credits are used by oil refiners and importers to show compliance with EPA-mandated renewable blending quotas for petroleum-based fuels. They are generated with every gallon of biofuel produced.

 

Ethanol producer Inpasa to invest $630 million in Brazil biorefinery projects

Ethanol producer Inpasa on Thursday said it will invest 3.48 billion reais ($631.26 million) to build a new biorefinery and expand operations at another unit in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso.

• The new facility in Rondonopolis will receive 2.77 billion reais in investments, with operations starting in early 2027, the company said in a statement.
• The unit is expected to process 2 million metric tons of grains annually, producing 1 billion liters of ethanol, it added.
• The expansion in Nova Mutum will add 1 million tons to annual grain processing capacity for 704 million reais, increasing ethanol output to 1.4 billion liters by end-2026.
• “This announcement marks another decisive step in consolidating the company as Latin America’s largest grain-based ethanol biorefinery,” Inpasa Head Eder Odvar Lopes said in the statement.
• Inpasa operates seven facilities in Brazil and Paraguay and has two plants under construction in the Brazilian states of Bahia and Goias.

 

DJ Extreme Cold Snarls River Barge Traffic

Barges operating on the Mississippi River have dealt with sub-zero cold temperatures this month, with ice slowing down their ability to operate, says the USDA in its latest Grain Transportation report. Weather around the country is turning warmer in recent days, which is expected to melt some of the accumulated ice. But ice not only snarls traffic trying to move through the Mississippi and its tributaries, it also creates low water levels for the lower portion of the river system–with water levels seen as just above the “low threshold.” Grains are largely shipped via barge to ports, where they are then sent abroad.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 888k tons in the week ending Dec. 13 from 549k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 82.1% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 41.8% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $20.07 per short ton, an increase of $1.96 from the previous week

 

 

 

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