Global Ag News For Dec 26.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Russia’s 2025 grain harvest may exceed 137 mln tonnes in net weight – Lut

Russia’s 2025 grain harvest in net weight may exceed the previous forecast of 137 million tonnes, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said.

“We have already harvested about 148 million tonnes, or rather 147.8 million tonnes was in the bunker yesterday [in bunker weight]. Well, and accordingly, 137 million tonnes, maybe a little more depending on what the reduction will be, we confirm the forecast for the net harvest,” Lut told journalists.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

US grain and livestock markets open at 8:30AM

For the week so far wheat prices are up 12 in SRW, up 18 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans up 17; Soymeal up $7.00; Soyoil up 1.08.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 16 3/4 in SRW, up 6 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/4; Soybeans down 69 1/2; Soymeal down $16.10; Soyoil down 3.03.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.4% in SRW, down 4.5% in HRW, down 2.6% in HRS; Corn is down 1.6%; Soybeans up 6.5%; Soymeal down 0.9%; Soyoil up 23.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans up 12 yuan; Soymeal up 43; Soyoil up 56; Palm oil up 20; Corn up 16 — Malaysian Palm is up 52.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 52 ringgit (+1.29%) at 4089.

There were changes in registrations (-32 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 1,130 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 152 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 24 were: SRW Wheat down 3,571 contracts, HRW Wheat down 796, Corn up 802, Soybeans down 4,814, Soymeal down 1,742, Soyoil down 4,865.

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 24 December 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Widespread warmth over the major U.S. crop regions will prevail until early next week, when a brief cold snap will move in from Canada as a potential threat to winter wheat
• SOUTH AMERICA: Heat risks will extend from Southern Brazil into the Southeast region at times over the next 10 days, an unfavorable trend for crop development
• AUSTRALIA: Flooding rains will continue to pummel northern Queensland through the next couple weeks, damaging crop areas while the rest of the continent will be favorably dry
• AFRICA: A cooling trend and moderate rains over South Africa through the next 10-15 days will be positive for maize development
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) will dip back into a negative phase event in early January, supporting the potential for cool/wet conditions from Argentina into Southern Brazil

RAINS WILL EXPAND OVER BRAZIL INTO THE NEW YEAR, WHILE ARGENTINA WILL TREND DRIER

What to Watch:

• The Argentina Pampas will trend increasingly dry into the new year before rainfall prospects may improve in an unfavorable outlook for corn/soybeans
• Near to above normal rainfall will overspread most of Brazil through the next couple weeks to the benefit of crops
• Cool and wet weather is in store for Paraguay over the next 1-2 weeks in a positive outlook for corn/soybeans

 

The player sheet for 12/24 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,500 corn, buyers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• DURUM WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC was believed to have purchased between 500,000 and 550,000 metric tons of durum wheat in an international tender on Tuesday, European traders said on Wednesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: Iranian firm Jahad Sabz Company issued a tender to purchase 10,000 metric tons of rice sourced from Pakistan, according to a copy of the tender sent to European traders. The deadline for submission of price offers is December 30.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $359.77 a metric ton CIF liner out, traders said. Price offers must remain valid until January 5.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

U.S. Soybean Shipments to China May Take Time

China is making good progress toward the 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans it committed to buying, with StoneX sources showing it has bought well over 8 million tons already, StoneX’s Arlan Suderman says in a note, although “USDA confirmation is much lower than that.” He notes that China has suspended auctions of reserve soybeans to make room for U.S. purchases because the auctions were finding fewer buyers. “That suggests that shipment of the purchased soybeans may take some time.”

 

Russia Boosts Late Season Grain Export Quota as Prices Pick Up

Russia has set a grain export quota of 20 million tons for the latter part of the season, a level that should allow the world’s top wheat shipper to maintain significant sales abroad.

The quota for Feb. 15 to June 30 applies to several grains, including barley and corn, according to a government decree. This compares to 10.6 million tons in the same period last season, when barley and corn were not included. Russia aims to export 53 to 55 million tons of grain in the current season, looking to improve shipments once global prices pick up.

Russian grain sales have been under pressure this season, with weak margins due to low global grain prices and a strong ruble. Wheat, the main grain export, has seen sluggish outflow with shipments in the first few months running about 30% below last year’s levels.

Russia began using grain export quotas in 2020 and formally approved the mechanism as permanent a year later. The size of the quota for the second half of each season varies depending on the harvest and shipment pace earlier in the year. 2025 so far has marked the lowest quota level.

Grain and oilseed prices have ticked up this month as Russia and Ukraine have attacked each other’s vessels and port infrastructure, putting the region’s grain exports at risk.

Earlier this month, consultancy SovEcon raised its estimates for Russia’s 2025 grain harvest to 136.2 million tons, with wheat seen at 88.8 million tons. SovEcon expects Russia will ship about 15 to 16 million tons of wheat during the quota period, according to its director Andrey Sizov.

 

Export handling of grain via Russian Railways network jumps 21.5% to 2.3 mln tonnes in November

Grain shipments for export via the Russian Railways network jumped 21.5% year-on-year to 2.3 million tonnes in November 2025, the company said.

Of this amount, 1.7 million tonnes, up 27.5% year-on-year, were shipped to ports. The largest volume at 1.4 million tonnes of grain, up 24.9% year-on-year, was shipped for export through southern ports. Northwestern ports received 266,000 tonnes, up 1.5-fold year-on-year.

Land border crossings transported 591,000 tonnes of grain for export, up 6.7% year-on-year, in November.

The largest grain shipment volumes were recorded in the Altai Territory at 298,000 tonnes, up 2.1-fold year-on-year; the Omsk Region at 246,000 tonnes, up 26% year-on-year; and the Lipetsk Region at 241,000 tonnes, up 28% year-on-year.

A total of 3.4 million tonnes of grain were shipped via the Russian Railways network in November 2025, up 26.4% year-on-year. Domestic shipments totaled 1.1 million tonnes, up 38.3% year-on-year.

 

Turkish Crop Production Decreased in 2025, TurkStat Says

Production quantities of cereals and other field crops fell by 9% while vegetables decreased by 0.9% and fruits, beverage and spices crops decreased by 30.9% compared to 2024, TurkStat says in statement.

• Approximate production quantities are: 68.1m tons for cereals and other crops, 33.3m tons for vegetables and 19.6m tons for fruits, beverage and spices crops
• Wheat production fell by 13.7% to 17.9m tons
• Barley production dropped by 25.9% to 6m tons
• Maize production rose by 4.9% to 8.5m tons

 

Recent favorable weather conditions support Paraguay corn production

• Eastern regions have recently received above-average rain and cool temperatures, raising soil moisture to sufficient levels for corn.
• Weather forecasts predict that cool and relatively wet conditions will persist over the next two weeks, reducing drought risks to corn production
• Satellite data and vegetation indices (NDVIs) indicate that vegetative growth in key corn-growing areas is similar to the high levels observed last year, confirming current good crop conditions.

 

Sinkholes in Turkey’s agricultural heartland fuel farmers’ concerns

Hundreds of sinkholes have emerged in Turkey’s central agricultural region due to dwindling rainfall and receding groundwaters, causing concern among farmers and environmental experts who see it as a worrying sign of climate change.

Gaping sinkholes pockmark farmland producing maize, wheat and sugar beet in Karapinar in Konya province, with more than 10 packed into a field in places. In mountainous areas, vast, ancient sinkholes previously filled with water have now mostly dried up.

The pace at which sinkholes are forming in the Konya basin has accelerated in recent years, with the total now nearing 700, according to Fetullah Arik, a geology professor studying sinkholes at Konya Technical University.

“The main reason for the increase in numbers is climate change and drought, which have affected the whole world since the 2000s,” Arik said. “As a result of this drought, the groundwater level is dropping slightly every year.”

He said the pace of receding groundwater levels has reached 4 to 5 metres per year, compared to half a metre per year in the 2000s, adding to concerns in Turkey’s major agricultural sector.

Drought and receding groundwater lead local farmers to dig more wells, many unlicensed, further depleting the groundwater and exacerbating the problem.

“There is also an extremely high demand for water in this (Konya) basin,” Arik said, adding that there are around 120,000 unlicensed wells, compared to some 40,000 licensed ones.

While the new sinkholes have not caused any casualties so far, their unpredictable nature risks the lives and belongings of locals, he said.

Two sinkholes opened up in the farmland belonging to Mustafa Sik, a farmer in Karapinar, in the past two years. His brother was only a short distance away, working on the farm in August 2024 when the second sinkhole formed with an “extremely loud, terrifying rumbling sound,” Sik said.

A survey by geologists in Sik’s land found two more areas where sinkholes could form – although it is not possible to predict when it will happen.

“Are we worried? Of course, we are very worried,” he said.

 

 

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