Written Commentary
TOP HEADLINES
China’s 2025 cotton output up 7.7 pct
China’s cotton production rose to 6.641 million tonnes in 2025, which was a 7.7 percent increase from the previous year, official data showed on Friday.
The national growth was driven by both an increased planting area and an improved yield efficiency. China’s total cotton planting area expanded 5 percent from 2024, and the yield per unit area was up 2.6 percent year on year, reaching 2,229 kilograms per hectare, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
This improvement in productivity, particularly in Xinjiang, played a crucial role in boosting the country’s overall cotton output.
Xinjiang saw a significant cotton output increase of 8.4 percent, rising to 6.165 million tonnes. In contrast, cotton production in the Yangtze River and Yellow River basins decreased 0.7 percent and 1.5 percent.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 2 in SRW, down 3 3/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans down 3 3/4; Soymeal down $1.50; Soyoil down 0.09.
Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 6 3/4 in SRW, up 15 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans up 11 3/4; Soymeal up $5.10; Soyoil up 0.87.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 21 1/2 in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 77 1/4; Soymeal down $18.30; Soyoil down 3.42.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.3% in SRW, down 5.2% in HRW, down 2.8% in HRS; Corn is down 2.3%; Soybeans up 5.9%; Soymeal down 1.6%; Soyoil up 22.7%.
Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans up 34 yuan; Soymeal up 6; Soyoil down 2; Palm oil down 10; Corn up 29 — Malaysian Palm is down 42.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 42 ringgit (-1.03%) at 4047.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 1,130 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 152 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 26 were: SRW Wheat down 3,525 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,783, Corn up 4,880, Soybeans down 33,358, Soymeal down 15,148, Soyoil down 4,858.
DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 26 DECEMBER 2025
- NORTH AMERICA: A powerful weekend cyclone that will usher in colder U.S. temperatures will bring a round of rain/snow to the northern/eastern tier of the Midwest, with minimal crop impacts
- SOUTH AMERICA: Increasingly cool/wet weather is in store for Paraguay through the next couple weeks in a favorable outlook for corn/soybean development
- SOUTHEAST ASIA: Widespread high rainfall along the major palm oil regions of Indonesia/Malaysia will support upside for production
- AFRICA: Coastal Ivory Coast rains through the next 15 days will continue to slow/damage the cocoa harvest
- TELECONNECTIONS: The Arctic Oscillation (AO) will trend increasingly into a negative phase event through early January and potentially beyond, supporting elevated cold risks across the Northern Hemisphere
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTH AMERICA IN EARLY JANUARY, WHILE THE RAINFALL PATTERN WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANGE
What to Watch:
- The Argentina Pampas will be persistently dry through early January in an unfavorable outlook for corn/soybeans
- Near to above normal rainfall will continue across most of Brazil through the next couple weeks to the benefit of crops
- Cool and wet weather is in store for Paraguay over the next 1-2 weeks in a positive outlook for corn/soybeans
The player sheet for 12/26 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 500 soyoil.
PENDING TENDERS
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 56,944 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China
- RICE TENDER: Iranian firm Jahad Sabz Company issued a tender to purchase 10,000 metric tons of rice sourced from Pakistan, according to a copy of the tender sent to European traders. The deadline for submission of price offers is December 30.
- RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, which closed on December 22, was estimated at $359.77 a metric ton CIF liner out, traders. Price offers must remain valid until January 5.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict Keeps Grains Traders Guessing — Market Talk
With Russia and Ukraine continuing attacks on each other’s infrastructure while peace efforts appear to be making progress, grains traders are debating whether to add or subtract the war premium from prices that has been building over the past week, AgResource says in a note. “A cease-fire or the end of the war would cause corn and wheat futures to decline.” Traders will be closely watching Sunday’s expected meeting between President Trump and Ukraine’s Zelensky, the firm adds.
TODAY
Russia’s wheat harvest reaches 91.4 mln tonnes in 2025 – Rosstat
Russia harvested 91.4 million tonnes of wheat in clean weight in 2025, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said, citing preliminary data.
The 2024 wheat harvest stood at 82.6 million tonnes.
Russia also harvested 999,000 tonnes of rye in 2025 (1.2 million tonnes in 2024), 19.7 million tonnes of barley (16.7 million tonnes in 2024), and 12.6 million tonnes of corn (139 million in 2024).
Russia’s harvest of buckwheat dropped to 933,400 tonnes in 2025 from 1.2 million tonnes in 2024 and the rice harvest decreased to 1.19 million tonnes from 1.26 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, the harvest of legumes saw a nearly 1.5-fold increase to 8 million tonnes in 2025 from 5.4 million tonnes last year.
Rosstat said on Friday that Russia’s clean weight grain harvest increased to 139.4 milllion tonnes in 2025 from 125.9 million tonnes in 2024.
The sunflower harvest was 17 million tonnes in 2025, up from 16.9 million tonnes in 2024, the soybean harvest went up to 8.96 million tonnes from 7.1 million tonnes in 2024, and the rapeseed harvest increased to 5.6 million tonnes from 4.7 million tonnes.
The Rosstat data do not include the statistics for the new regions.
Indonesia’s Bulog to Boost Rice, Corn Purchases Next Year
Indonesia has assigned the state-owned food logistics company to buy more rice and corn from local farmers next year amid expectations of higher output, Bulog President Director Ahmad Rizal Ramdhani told reporters in Jakarta on Monday.
Target for rice purchases set at 4m ton next year, up from 3m tons this year
Target for corn at 1m tons in 2026, up from 300,000 tons in 2025
Japan schedules sanitary audit on Brazilian beef for March 2026, Brazil says
The Japanese government will conduct an audit to assess Brazil’s beef sanitary system in March 2026, as part of the process to open its market to Brazilian products, Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry said on Friday.
Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter, has been trying for decades to enter Japan’s high-value market.
Earlier this year, negotiations gained some momentum following a visit from Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to Japan.
Brazilian newspaper Valor Economico reported on Friday that Japan will initially focus on the three Brazilian southern states – Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Parana – for sanitary reasons.
Reuters reported in August that an expected focus on the region, which represents less than 4% of Brazil’s exports by volume, has worried meatpackers in the big beef-producing states of Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Para.
The southern states were declared free of foot-and-mouth, a contagious viral disease in cattle, before other states, although Brazil acquired in May the national status of being free of the disease without vaccination from the World Organization for Animal Health.
Brazil’s last outbreak of the disease was in 2006, according to the government. Foot-and-mouth disease poses no risk to human health but reduces herd productivity, which explains the sanitary concerns.
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