Global Ag News For Dec 3.2025

TOP HEADLINES

US Grains Council Corn Quality Report Sees Record 2025-26 Crop

This season’s American corn crop is expected to be the largest on record, according to an annual harvest quality report from the US Grains & BioProducts Council.

• The council projects the US corn harvest coming in at 425.53 million tons
• Average yield, also a record, is estimated at 186 bushels per acre
• The council highlighted the quality of the crop, noting it had the lowest rate of broken corn and foreign material in the report’s 15 year history
• The report is based on 621 yellow corn samples pulled from areas within 12 of the top corn-producing and exporting states

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/2 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal up $1.20; Soyoil down 0.31.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 2 in SRW, up 4 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 10 1/4; Soymeal down $6.40; Soyoil up 0.33.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.7% in SRW, down 6.4% in HRW, down 0.5% in HRS; Corn is down 4.8%; Soybeans up 12.9%; Soymeal up 0.9%; Soyoil up 31.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 2 yuan; Soymeal up 1; Soyoil down 2; Palm oil up 88; Corn up 12 — Malaysian Palm is down 6.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 6 ringgit (-0.14%) at 4153.

There were changes in registrations (-106 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 731 Soyoil; 227 Soymeal; 176 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 2 were: SRW Wheat up 4,229 contracts, HRW Wheat up 5,358, Corn up 16,573, Soybeans down 3,320, Soymeal down 3,412, Soyoil down 1,206.

 

A COLD AIR OUTBREAK WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE U.S. THIS WEEK, PERSISTING THROUGH THE FIRST THIRD OF THE MONTH

What to Watch:

• Cold temperatures will become extreme at times over the U.S. Midwest and surrounding areas this week into next before any warming trend appears
• On the heels of a major winter storm in the Midwest, conditions will trend quieter until mid-December
• Northern U.S. winter wheat areas will observe winterkill temperatures, but the crop in those areas will be protected by ample snow cover

Brazil: The forecast has not verified very well and central Brazil is still lacking in soil moisture. A front moved through southern states on Monday and the front is forecast to enhance precipitation over central Brazil as it stalls for the rest of the week. We will await verification of the heavier rainfall. The current lack of significant soil moisture is likely to be noticeable with developing soybeans, some of which should be flowering. Soil moisture is still favorable farther south, but the frequency of rainfall has certainly fallen, which is starting a slow drying process that may be more noticeable in a couple of weeks if this keeps up.

Argentina: Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, being quite heavy in some spots. The region will be dry for the rest of the week with the next front bringing showers in a patchy fashion this weekend into early next week. The heavy rain being sandwiched between long stretches of dry weather is likely producing variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans across the country.

Northern Plains: Cold air will continually be reinforced as systems and fronts move across the region this week. Occasional precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, will develop every couple of days. Warmer air will spread into the region next week, but may only be brief.

Central/Southern Plains: A system moved through on Monday with a streak of snow across Kansas and Nebraska and some rain in the southeast. Multiple fronts will continue to push through the region the rest of the week and weekend, with occasional showers and shots of colder air. Warmer air will move in next week with the main storm track shifting northward for a brief period.

Midwest: A system moved into the region on Monday is leaving on Tuesday, which produced some more streaks of snow. A stronger cold front will move through the region Wednesday into Thursday with some snow, but another push of intensely cold air. Systems afterward are favoring a clipper-like pattern for the weekend and next week. That will promote more streaks of snow, breezy winds, and pushes of cold air through the region.

Delta: A system went through with scattered showers on Monday and some more heavy rain. Heavier precipitation up north included a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system. The local shots of precipitation have helped to raise water levels some, but are still low. Though some showers will move through the south on Thursday, the lack of heavy precipitation in the forecast will likely mean another slow fall in water levels for the next couple of weeks.

Europe: Frequent systems in the Atlantic will favor the northwest this week, but also across Spain, which could use some more precipitation for vegetative winter wheat. Overall conditions are still favorable in most areas as a lot of the wheat is entering dormancy.

Black Sea: Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe have only produced limited showers, which continues this week and mostly across Ukraine again. Above-normal temperatures have slowed the progress toward dormancy, but is finally occurring across all but the far southern areas as average temperatures continue to decline.

 

The player sheet for 12/2 had funds: net buyers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 15,500 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) 0purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in an international tender on Tuesday.
• WHEAT PURHCASE: A South Korean flour mill group bought an estimated 30,300 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat from optional origins, European traders said on Tuesday. The tender sought a nominal 50,000 metric tons, but Algeria often buys considerably more than the nominal volume sought in its tenders. The deadline for submitting price offers is December 3, with offers remaining valid until December 4.
• WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat, European traders said on Tuesday. The deadline for submitting price offers is December 3, with 2026 shipment sought.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that closed on Tuesday, European traders said.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers was November 20. Bangladesh’s state grains buyer also issued other international tenders to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, with price offers to be submitted on December 1, December 9 and December 15.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from the Trading Corporation of Pakistan to purchase 100,000 metric tons of rice for supply to Bangladesh was estimated at $394.95 CIF liner out, European traders said. The deadline for submitting price offers was November 28.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is December 3.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Nov. 28 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.089m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.093m bbl vs 21.968m a week ago

 

CROP SURVEY: Canada 2025 Production Ahead of StatCan Report

The following shows results of a Bloomberg survey of as many as six analysts about 2025 crop production in Canada.

• Analysts see wheat production increasing by 5.7% from the previous season to 38m metric tons
  • Analyst estimates varied from 36.8m to 38.9m tons
• Canola production seen at 21.3m tons, 10.7% higher than last year
• Statistics Canada in Ottawa is scheduled to release its estimates on Dec. 4 at 8:30am ET

 

More US soybean shipments to China due to load through mid-December

Shipments of U.S. crops to China are accelerating after a tense tariff war had stalled trade for months, with at least six bulk cargo vessels scheduled to load with soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December, according to a shipping schedule seen by Reuters on Tuesday.

A seventh U.S. soybean cargo was loaded over the past weekend and is already en route to China, the first such shipment since May.

U.S. farmers and grain traders have been waiting for shipments to begin after trade talks between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea in late October and, according to the White House, a vow by Beijing to buy 12 million metric tons by the end of the year. Beijing has not confirmed details from that meeting, including any vows to purchase sizable volumes of U.S. soy.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said last month that the Trump administration expects to News Story with China by this week. She said on Tuesday that the administration would unveil an aid package next week for farmers hurt by low crop prices and trade turmoil.

Chinese importers booked nearly 2 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans last month for shipment in the 2025/26 marketing year that ends in August 2026, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data, although only minimal purchases have been confirmed since then. Total Chinese purchases remain well short of the volumes seen before the trade war. China’s absence from the market had pushed down the price of soybean futures to near five-year lows.

The cargo vessel Tokugawa was being loaded with soybeans on Tuesday, and the vessel Katagalan Brave was set to load in the coming days, according to shipping data. Four others – RB Eden, Hua Xing Hai, Donna Alexandra and SSI Dominion – were due to arrive for loading over the next two weeks.

U.S. sorghum shipments to China have also restarted for the first time since March. One cargo vessel, the Bungo Queen, is currently loading at a Texas Gulf Coast terminal, and a second ship, the YM Navigator, is due to load late next week at a terminal in the Pacific Northwest, shipping data showed.

 

China remains most important destination for Russia’s agricultural exports – Agroexport

China remains the main destination for exports of Russian agricultural products this year, while supplies to Middle Eastern countries are actively ongoing, the head of the Agroexport federal center Ilya Ilyushin said at a strategic session of the center in Moscow on Tuesday.

“China remains the most important direction for us. This year [according to data as of November 16], supplies of frozen fish to China have increased 42%, rapeseed oil 40% and peas 1.9-fold,” he said.

In addition, exports to Middle Eastern countries are actively developing. Supplies of sunflower oil to Turkey have increased more than one and a half times and bran by almost one third. Exports of sunflower oil to Iran have grown almost threefold, and wheat to Iraq is up elevenfold.

“Among neighboring countries, I would highlight the growth of pork exports to Belarus by almost 1.8-fold and sunflower oil by more than three times,” Ilyushin said. “Sugar supplies to Uzbekistan have increased 37%. Exports of sunflower oil, coffee and tea to Kazakhstan have more than doubled.”

Meat products show good dynamics this year, with pork exports growing 47% and poultry meat 19%.

“Finished products have also become a driver of exports. Supplies of ice cream have increased 29% [in value terms], pasta 21%, cheese and cottage cheese 16%, kefir and yogurt 20%, finished meat products 14%, beverages 10% and confectionery 9%,” he said.

During this period, Russia exported 16,000 tonnes of ice cream worth $69 million, Agroexport told Interfax, citing expert estimates. The top three importing countries were Kazakhstan, Belarus and Uzbekistan.

Exports of cheese and cottage cheese amounted to 25,000 tonnes worth $132 million, while confectionery exports stood at 476,000 tonnes worth nearly $0.5 billion.

This year, the center began supporting exports of seeds, vaccines, plant protection products and fertilizers, Ilyushin said. “For a number of them, there are already the first results. For example, seeds from Russian scientific research institutions subordinate to the Russian Agriculture Ministry are undergoing variety testing in China, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Armenia,” he said. “An intensification of this work is planned for 2026.”

It is necessary to maintain positive dynamics in agricultural product supplies next year, and continue to gain a foothold in key export markets, he said. To do this, Russia must focus on optimizing logistics and reducing its costs, ensuring uninterrupted payments, supporting Russian brands, and opening warehouses abroad, he said.

The center intends to work on forming comprehensive support for exporters, including analytics, certification and searching for potential partners, organizing joint consolidated cargo shipments, participation in foreign tenders, conducting tasting events in Russia and abroad, and assistance in opening offices and representative offices.

 

Farmer Relief Package to Be Announced Next Week, Rollins Says

The Trump administration plans to release its long-awaited plan to offer relief for beleaguered farmers next week, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said.

“We do have a bridge payment, we’ll be announcing with you next week,” Rollins said Tuesday during a Cabinet meeting at the White House.

President Donald Trump’s team has teased an aid package for months as farmers have struggled for the better part of the year. In late November, Rollins told Bloomberg News the aid package would be announced the first week of December.

Agricultural communities, which voted overwhelmingly for Trump in last year’s election, have been crushed as export markets dried up and several federal safety-net programs have shrunk during his second term.

The president’s trade war on virtually all major economies, and their retaliatory actions, have exacerbated farmers’ woes — most notably China’s decision to cut off purchases of American soybeans.

Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to resume soybean buys as part of a broader trade truce brokered with Trump. Beijing has booked at least 10 more soybean cargoes, lifting total purchases thus far this season to more than 2 million tons. That brings the nation closer to the target it was said to have agreed to during trade talks in October.

 

Ukraine’s wheat production outlook remains stable as winter sowing concludes

2026/27 UKRAINE WHEAT PRODUCTION: 22.8 [21.7-24.0] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Ukraine’s wheat production for the 2026/27 season is estimated at 22.8 [21.7-24.0] million tons, unchanged from the previous update. Excluding Crimea and the occupied territories, the forecast stands at 21.7 million tons.

Over the past two weeks, most wheat-growing areas experienced above-average temperatures, while some western locations saw near-normal conditions. Rainfall was above average in western, northern, central, and southern regions but below average in eastern areas, supporting the completion of winter wheat planting. Approximately 4.7 million hectares of winter wheat have been sown, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.

Short-term forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures and low to moderate rainfall. Rainfall is expected to improve soil moisture, particularly in areas currently experiencing deficits in parts of western Ukraine. Seasonal outlooks for December–February suggest near-normal to slightly warmer temperatures and average precipitation, reducing the risk of winter-kill. However, thin snow cover, localized moisture shortages, and occasional cold snaps remain potential concerns.

 

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks likely hit 6-1/2-year high on slow exports, record November production

• November stocks likely rose 7.78% m/m to 2.66 mln MT – poll
• Output seen down 3% to 1.98 mln MT; still highest for November
• Exports projected to have declined 14.9% to 1.44 mln MT
• Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due on December 10

Malaysia’s palm oil inventories likely rose to a more than six-and-a-half-year high in November, as exports slumped amid record production for the month, a Reuters survey showed on Wednesday.

Rising inventories in the world’s second-biggest producer of the tropical oil could weigh on benchmark Malaysian futures, which are trading near their lowest level in nearly five months. POI/

Palm oil stocks were estimated to have risen 7.78% month-on-month to 2.66 million metric tons in November, their highest since April 2019, according to a median estimate of 10 traders, planters, and analysts polled by Reuters.

Crude palm oil output was estimated at 1.98 million tons, down 3% from the previous month, but still the highest November production on record. The decline is milder than the average 6.8% drop typically recorded in November over the past 25 years.

Production was seen hovering near 2 million tons for a second straight month, supported by favourable weather, improved labour availability, and higher-yielding new plantations.

This is expected to push annual crude palm oil output above 20 million tons for the first time ever.

Exports of palm oil products were projected to have fallen by 14.9% to 1.44 million tons, after two consecutive months of gains.

Inventories remain within expectations, though the decline in exports is expected to put pressure on end-stocks, said Paramalingam Supramaniam, director at Selangor-based brokerage Pelindung Bestari.

“We are also slowly approaching lower production months, with East Malaysia leading the decline. However, with production declining much lesser than exports, this phenomenon will remain a strong headwind for prices unless exports recover robustly.”

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is scheduled to release its monthly data on December 10.

 

US Agriculture Sentiment Improves in November: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index increased to 139 points in Nov. from 129 in Oct., according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• This is the highest level since June
• Current conditions component declined by 2 points from Oct.
• Future expectations up by 15 points
• “Strengthening crop prices contributed to the improved outlook for the future, as did a more optimistic outlook for agricultural exports,” according to Michael Langemeier, director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture

 

 

 

 

 

 

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