Global Ag News For Dec 31.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China sets quotas, slaps additional tariffs on some beef imports

China will impose additional 55% tariffs on beef imports from countries including Brazil, Australia and the U.S. when shipments exceed certain quotas, a major blow to key global suppliers as the domestic industry grapples with a supply glut.

China’s commerce ministry said on Wednesday the total quota for 2026 is 2.7 million metric tons, with Brazil assigned the highest portion of 41.1%, followed by Argentina with 19.0% and 12.1% for Uruguay.

The ministry allocated a quota of 205,000 metric tons for Australia and 164,000 metric tons for the U.S.

In 2024, China imported 1.34 million tons of beef from Brazil, 594,567 tons from Argentina, 216,050 tons from Australia, 243,662 tons from Uruguay, 150,514 tons from New Zealand, and 138,112 tons from the United States.

China’s measures will take effect on January 1 for three years, with the total quota increasing every year, reaching 2.8 million metric tons in 2028.

China made the announcement on Wednesday following two extensions of its beef import probe initiated last December, which officials say does not target any particular country.

Last week, Chinese beef industry associations pressured the government to impose immediate safeguard measures by the year-end to stabilize market expectations and domestic breeders’ livelihoods, state media Global Times reported.

Since 2023, China’s beef breeding sector has incurred heavy losses due to various factors, including imports, prompting many breeders to slaughter breeding cattle to reduce expenses, Global Times quoted an industry official as saying.

China imported a record 2.87 million metric tons of beef last year. Imports in the January to November period dropped 0.3% year-on-year to 2.59 million tons.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

For the month to date wheat prices are down 30 in SRW, down 10 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/2; Soybeans down 87 1/2; Soymeal down $23.10; Soyoil down 3.16.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.8% in SRW, down 7.5% in HRW, down 3.2% in HRS; Corn is down 4.2%; Soybeans up 4.3%; Soymeal down 4.0%; Soyoil up 23.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans up 29 yuan; Soymeal down 9; Soyoil up 16; Palm oil up 12; Corn down 12 — Malaysian Palm is down 20.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 20 ringgit (-0.49%) at 4050.

There were changes in registrations (300 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 1,430 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 152 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 30 were: SRW Wheat up 6,890 contracts, HRW Wheat down 818, Corn up 7,881, Soybeans down 16,065, Soymeal down 743, Soyoil down 10,279.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 31 DECEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cold risks are expected in the Midwest and Northeast, while the rest of the U.S. will remain warmer over the next 10 days. Snow is expected across the northern Midwest, the far Northern Plains, and parts of the East, while rain will be confined to the Southwest and Southern Plains.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays cooler temperatures with below-normal rainfall, while Brazil experiences wet conditions and near normal to warmer temperatures.
• EUROPE: Colder temperatures are expected across Europe over the next week, with most regions expected to experience wet weather.
• ASIA: Asia will see mostly near-normal to cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, with mixed temperatures in China. Above-normal precipitation is expected in the Southeast and central Japan.
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecast indicates no active phase, which does not support any significant weather activity across the Asian region over the next 15 days.

THE U.S. NEW YEAR WILL KICK OFF WITH A WIDESPREAD WARMING TREND, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT COLD RISKS COULD RETURN BY MID-JANUARY

• Weather Anomaly Severity: Moderate
• Crops impacted: Winter Wheat
• Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op
• Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: GFS Ens
• Forecast confidence: High through 10 days with a cold-to-warm transition, low after that due to conflicting guidance between cold risks (PNA/GFS) and continuing warmth (ECMWF).
• Model Change (from previous update): Warmer in early January, with cold risks split between short-term outlook and extended forecast in mid-January.

Significant weather anomalies and crop impact:

• Upper Midwest/eastern U.S. cold risks (temperatures 6-12 °F below normal) this week will give way to widespread warmth next week (temperatures 8-16 °F above normal).
• No major cyclones will keep most of the U.S. dry through the next 15 days (precipitation 25-75 mm below normal), though a corridor of wet conditions (precipitation 5-15 mm (~0.2-0.6 in) will exist in Kansas, Nebraska and into Iowa/Missouri. Very little snowfall will hit U.S. crop regions over the next week.
• Returning cold risks are likely during the 11-15 day forecast but will need to be confirmed in future updates.
• Winterkill risks could emerge for wheat in mid-January, with heightened potential for damage due to expected lack of snow cover.

Brazil – Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Brazil – Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. 

Argentina – Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers north Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday. 

Argentina – La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

Northern Plains: Isolated showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal west and near to below normal east Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers south Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above to well above normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Midwest – West: Scattered showers Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Midwest – East: Scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near normal west and near to below normal east Saturday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 12/30 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,500 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday that exporters sold 136,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China and 231,000 tons to “unknown destinations” — both for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year started September 1.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: Iranian firm Jahad Sabz Company issued a tender to purchase 10,000 tons of rice sourced from Pakistan, according to a copy of the tender sent to European traders. The deadline for submission of price offers was December 30.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 56,944 tons of rice to be sourced from China, European traders said. The deadline for price offers was December 30.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 tons of rice, which closed on December 22, was estimated at $359.77 a ton CIF liner out, traders said. Price offers must remain valid until January 5.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for price offers is January 6.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for price offers is January 7.

 

 

 

TODAY

US CROP EXPORTS: Soybeans to China and Unknown Buyers

The US Department of Agriculture on Tuesday announces the following export sales activity on its website:

Two sales announced:

• 136,000 tons of soybeans to China for 2025-26 marketing year
• 231,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2025-26

 

China Buys Two-Thirds of Pledged US Soybeans as 2025 Closes

China has bought at least 8 million tons of US soybeans this year, according to people familiar with the matter, putting the world’s top importer on track to meet a pledge it made two months ago as part of an apparent trade truce with Washington.

State-owned buyers have continued to book US cargoes into late December, the people said, asking not to be named as they are not authorized to discuss the purchases. That extends a buying spree that began in October and maintains a pace that has reassured American exporters, otherwise wary that Beijing’s commitment might slip amid limited visibility and unclear deadlines.

The shipments booked so far are mostly for loading between December and March, the people said.

The White House said immediately after talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that China had pledged to buy at least 12 million tons of US soybeans by the end of this year. US officials later clarified the deadline was in fact the end of February. Beijing has not confirmed the commitment, but the Chinese government has moved to reduce tariffs on the crop and lifted import bans on three American exporters.

The return of Chinese buyers is welcome news for US exporters, and a reminder that buying patterns can change fast — but it is not yet a full reset. Even as Beijing takes US shipments, state-owned firms have bought large quantities of beans from Brazil and Argentina, the people said. Commercial buyers in particular have stayed on the sidelines when it comes to US purchases.

Almost 80% of Brazil’s soy went to China in 2025, with exports through November climbing 16% compared to the previous year. That trade continued in December, even in a period when sales are seasonally weaker, and Brazil’s upcoming harvest is forecast to be a record.

“We cannot confirm from China’s side that anything beyond the 12 million tons has been pledged,” said Ben Buckner, grains and dairy analyst at AgResource Co. The brokerage wrote in a note this week that China was seeking shipments and could reach a “soft target” of 10 million tons in 2025, with an additional 2 million tons in January.

Without a formal deal confirmed by both sides, traders say uncertainty over future sales is reinforcing pressure on soybean prices. Futures in Chicago are down nearly 7% in December, on track for the worst monthly performance since July 2024.

Matt Bennett, an Illinois corn and soy farmer, said many farmers have been “pleasantly surprised” with the steady flow of purchases from China so far, but added there has been frustration with the direction of soybean prices.

“From our vantage point, once you quantify that they’re going to buy 12 million tons, you need something in excess of that to get everyone excited,” Bennett, co-founder of farm advisory AgMarket.Net, said in a phone interview.

Trump earlier this month announced $12 billion in relief for US farmers, but growers are still waiting for the administration to provide details on how much they will get in payments promised by February.

 

Russian Strike Damages Grain Ship in Odesa Region, Kuleba Says

Russia attacked Ukraine’s Odesa region ports Pivdennyi and Chornomorsk, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba says on Telegram.

• One person injured in the strike, some port facilities damaged
• Attack also damaged a civilian grain ship under Panama flag docked in a port, Kuleba says without elaborating on location, extent of damage
• Ports continue operation despite attacks
• NOTE: The drone attack on Odesa region ports took place Tuesday morning, regional governor Oleh Kiper said on Telegram
• NOTE: The ports are regular targets of Russian strikes; the most recent one damaged Kernel Holding SA’s vegetable oil storage tank and facilities in Chornomorsk last week

 

Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest seen hitting record 27.8 mln tons, exchange says

BUENOS AIRES, Dec 30 (Reuters) – Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest is forecast to hit a record 27.8 million metric tons, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Tuesday, lifting its estimate from 27.1 million tons due to persistent high yields as harvesting nears completion.

• If the outlook is confirmed, the 2025/26 cycle would surpass the current record of 22.4 million tons, reached four years ago.
• Only 7.2% of Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat area is still to be harvested, according to the exchange.
• Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat season was boosted by favorable weather throughout the cycle.

SOYBEAN AND CORN

• Farmers in Argentina have planted 82% of the estimated 2025/26 soybean area and 84.2% of the corn area, the exchange said.
• Argentina is the world’s third largest exporter of corn and the largest global supplier of soybean oil and meal.
• The exchange kept estimates for Argentina’s 2025/26 soybean and corn area unchanged at 17.6 million hectares and 6.7 million hectares, respectively.

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen At 3.02 Million Tons In December – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 3.02 MILLION TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 3.57 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.87 MILLION TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 2.0 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.35 (NOT 3.52) MILLION TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 6.35 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE – ANEC

 

CORN/CEPEA: Higher domestic supply may limit price rises in early 2026

The Brazilian corn market enters 2026 with high domestic availability due to ending stocks above those of the previous season and expectations of higher output from the first crop.

In this scenario, corn futures traded at B3 remain below levels seen in the previous season, despite mild gains in the first quarter.

In the international market, corn futures at CME Group, after registering modest increases in the final weeks of 2025, point to an upward trend throughout the first half of 2026. Record US exports in recent months, combined with expectations of a tighter global stocks-to-use ratio, have supported futures prices.

In Brazil, planted area in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record 22.7 million hectares, according to Conab. Irregular rainfall and high temperatures in the Center-West remain points of attention for the development of the first crop, especially soybeans, which could narrow the ideal planting window for the second corn crop, responsible for around 80% of national supply.

Total corn production in 2025/26 is forecast to be the second largest on record. High output is expected to be matched by strong domestic consumption, driven mainly by the expansion of the corn ethanol industry and demand from the animal protein sectors. A more balanced domestic supply-demand scenario may be accompanied by higher exports, supported by the domestic surplus.

Conab estimates first-crop corn production in 2025/26 at 25.9 million tons, up 3.9%, reflecting a 7.2% increase in planted area after three consecutive years of decline. When added to ending stocks estimated at 14.06 million tons at the end of January 2026, corn availability in the first half of the year totals 39.9 million tons, equivalent to 42% of annual domestic consumption, above the 30% registered in the 2024/25 season.

For the second crop, Conab projects an expansion in area, but declines in both yields and output. In December, second-crop corn area for the 2025/26 season was estimated at 18 million hectares, a national record and 3.8% higher than the previous crop. Yields and production are forecast to fall 6% and 2%, respectively, to 6,105 kg per hectare and 110.46 million tons. Third-crop production is estimated at 2.51 million tons, down 12.6% from 2024/25.

Overall, considering beginning stocks of 14.12 million tons in February 2026, total production of 138.88 million tons and imports of 1.7 million tons, domestic corn availability in the 2025/26 season is estimated at 154.64 million tons. After accounting for domestic consumption projected at 94.6 million tons, the domestic surplus is expected to reach 60 million tons, the highest since 2022/23, according to Conab.

Brazilian corn exports are estimated at 46.5 million tons between February 2026 and January 2027. If confirmed, the volume would result in ending stocks of 13.54 million tons in January 2027, down 4% compared to the previous crop, but still 51% above the average of the past five seasons.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Lower global supply boosts Brazil’s role

Initial estimates indicate that Brazil may reach a new record soybean output in the 2025/26 season. Global supply, however, is expected to decline, mainly due to lower production in the United States and Argentina. This scenario is likely to further increase Brazil’s role in the international market, with the country potentially accounting for around 60% of global soybean supply.

In this context, international prices and Brazilian export deals for the first half of 2026 have shown signs of recovery.

Soybean contracts for 2026 traded at CME Group are quoted between USD 10.80 and USD 11.20 per bushel, above the 2025 average of USD 10.37/bushel. Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans is expected to remain firm, supporting export premiums.

FOB prices in Brazil have also continued to recover. At Paranaguá port, soybean prices range from USD 24.00 to USD 25.50 per 60-kg bag for February–July 2026 shipments, compared with USD 22.00 to USD 23.50 in the same period last year.

In the domestic market, producer profitability is expected to improve in major producing regions such as Cascavel (PR), Rio Verde (GO) and Sorriso (MT), although margins may remain negative in Rio Grande do Sul. Exchange rate movements remain a key factor for domestic prices, amid expectations of a weaker U.S. dollar following a Federal Reserve rate cut.

On the other hand, price gains in Brazil and the United States may be limited by Argentina’s increased competitiveness after the government reduced export taxes on soybeans, meal and oil.

 

CEPEA/Despite area decrease, prices drop in most part of 2025

The area planted with wheat in Brazil decreased again in 2025, especially in Paraná. The decrease is related to problems faced in 2024, when unfavorable weather conditions affected both the productivity and the profitability, discouraging producers to make new investments. According to Conab, the planted area in 2025 was 20% below that verified in 2024 and the smallest since 2020.

In spite of the smaller area, both production and productivity may finish this year at higher levels compared to those last year, favored by the weather.

As for prices in the domestic market, there have been two trends in 2025. In the first semester, quotations remained firm, sustained by the lower supply compared to the demand. From May on, however, the progress of sowing activities, high ending stocks and the pressure from the high global supply shifted the price trend.

In the second semester, with the progress of the harvesting in Brazil, quotations have started to drop more significantly. This context was reinforced by the downward scenario abroad (record global crop and high expectations for the crop in Argentina). Constant price decreases in this period arouse concerns about producers’ profitability.

Moreover, the valuation of Real against dollar quotations during the year increased the competitiveness of the imported wheat, especially the one from Argentina. The reduction of retenciones in that country contributed to make the international product even more attractive to purchasers in Brazil. In this scenario, sellers in the domestic market ended up reducing quotations in order to follow the international downward trend.

According to data from Cepea, between December 30, 2024 and December 26, 2025, prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) dropped 13% in Paraná, 16.9% in Rio Grande do Sul and 13.6% in Santa Catarina. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values moved down 15.5% in PR, 19.5% in RS and 7.9% in SC.

 

Indonesia sets January crude palm oil reference price at $915.64 per ton

Indonesia has set its crude palm oil reference price at $915.64 per metric ton for January, down from December’s $926.14 per ton, according to a Trade Ministry regulation.

The new reference price means the export tax for CPO in January will remain at $74 per ton.

Indonesia also imposes a separate 10% export levy on CPO.

 

Malaysia Dec. Palm Oil Exports Fall 5.76% M/m: Intertek

Following is a summary of Malaysia’s Dec. palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Total exports for Dec. 2025: 1.241m tons
• Crude palm oil exports: 291,730 tons, 23.5% of total

 

Malaysia Dec. Palm Oil Exports Fall to 1.197m Tons: AmSpec

Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell to 1.197m tons in December from 1.263m tons in November, according to AmSpec Agri.

• Palm oil exports fell 5.21% m/m

 

China vows to stabilise grain prices, ensure supply in 2026

Chinese policymakers pledged to stabilise grain prices and ensure supply in 2026, the state planner said in a statement on Wednesday, citing a meeting.

 

Louis Dreyfus JV Appeals Decision Awarding Vicentin to Rival

Louis Dreyfus Co. and Molinos Agro have appealed a decision by the judge overseeing Vicentin’s future to approve grains brokerage Grassi’s takeover of the distressed Argentina soy exporter, according to a copy of the appeal seen by Bloomberg News.

• The Dec. 29 appeal has been admitted for review, but the LDC Argentina–Molinos venture’s request to stay a transfer of Vicentin’s shares to Grassi was denied
• LDC and Molinos declined to comment, while a spokesman for Grassi pointed to the court’s refusal to grant a stay
  • NOTE: LDC-Molinos can also appeal the stay refusal
• NOTE: On Dec. 18, Judge Fabian Lorenzini dismissed objections by LDC-Molinos against some creditor votes for Grassi’s offer to restructure Vicentin’s $1.3 billion of unsecured debt
  • Lorenzini approved Grassi’s restructuring deal and ordered the transfer of Vicentin’s shares to Grassi
  • On Dec. 26, Grassi said the share transfer was being executed, adding that CEO Mariano Grassi would head the board of a newly-branded Nueva Vicentin Argentina

 

Lack of moisture in southern Pampas lowers Argentina soybean production

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 46.0 [44.8–47.2] MILLION TONS, DOWN 1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Argentina soybean production is lowered by 1% to 46.0 [44.8–47.2] million tons, amid rapidly declining soil moisture levels in the southern half of the Pampas and less-than-favorable long-term weather outlooks through February. Our current estimate puts planted area at 16.7 million hectares, slightly above 16.4 million hectares reported by Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario, but below the Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires’ 17.6 million hectares. In December’s WASDE (released on 09 December), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 48.5 million tons, unchanged from its previous projection in November.

Over the past two weeks most of the top producing regions in the central/southern Pampas have continued to experience lingering hot and dry weather. Eastern Córdoba, southern Santa Fe, and the whole crop area of Buenos Aires received less than 40 mm of precipitation during the period, up to 30 mm below normal, amid above average temperatures. Soil moisture conditions still remain decent across these key regions, but declining fast, warranting attention with the crop’s prime growing season immediately around the corner as the calendar turns to January. Soybean planting is nationally 86% complete so far according to the Ministry of Agriculture (MinAgri), behind last year’s 93%. The Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos also reported a soybean sowing progress of 82%, largely behind schedule. According to the LSEG Weather Research team’s latest December-February ENSO analysis, the La Niña event is forecast to prevail through February (though it may dissipate in March), which can be a critical factor in determining final yield. La Niña conditions are most frequently associated with hot and dry weather in the main Pampas region. The current overall decent soil moisture conditions should provide a reasonable buffer against early growing season dryness, but reserves could deplete rapidly, warranting close monitoring.

 

 

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