Global Ag News for Dec 6.24

TOP HEADLINES

Biden’s EPA Moves to Pare Biofuel Quota Amid Shortfall

The Biden administration has proposed paring the amount of cellulosic biofuel that must be used by refiners and fuel importers this year, citing lower-than-expected production.

• The Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed rule, now subject to public comment, responds to a petition from oil refiners that called the existing quota unreasonable
  • The cellulosic target “greatly exceeded” production “and was impossible to meet,” the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers association said in response to the measure Thursday
• EPA says that without the change, it could “disrupt the functioning” of a market in tradeable compliance credits companies use to show they have fulfilled quotas
• Under proposed rule, required credits tracking 2024 cellulosic biofuel consumption would be pared from 1.09 billion to 0.88 billion
• The EPA proposal also would extend compliance reporting deadlines under the federal Renewable Fuel Standard that compels the use of biofuels
  • However, the agency is not proposing to lower other targets under the RFS program

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/4 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, down 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 1 1/4; Soymeal down $2.10; Soyoil up 0.32.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 8 in SRW, up 9 1/2 in HRW, up 3 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal down $2.90; Soyoil up 0.89.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 12.9% in SRW, down 16.5% in HRW, down 21.4% in HRS; Corn is down 9.3%; Soybeans down 23.2%; Soymeal down 25.5%; Soyoil down 10.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans up 16 yuan; Soymeal down 12; Soyoil up 22; Palm oil down 44; Corn up 20 — Malaysian Palm is down 7.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 7 ringgit (-0.14%) at 5128.

There were changes in registrations (-111 Corn, 50 Soymeal). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 3 Corn; 378 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 1,091 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 5 were: SRW Wheat down 2,313 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,381, Corn down 3,074, Soybeans up 6,281, Soymeal up 1,975, Soyoil up 577.

 

Brazil: Scattered showers continue in central Brazil though they will again go more isolated this weekend. Another front will move through southern areas with heavier rainfall over the weekend that should boost showers in central Brazil again next week. Overall, conditions are still largely favorable for developing corn and soybeans across most of the country.

Argentina: A front moves through Thursday through Saturday with scattered showers. Most areas have good growing conditions, but there are some areas in the south that are too dry. If the late-week front disappoints, it could be more concerning as the pattern will tend to be drier afterward with more limited rainfall from passing systems.

Northern Plains: One more day of cold temperatures are expected behind a strong cold front. Temperatures will increase rapidly on Friday though and despite a system moving through on Sunday with a burst of colder air, it should be closer to normal and temperatures will rise again a couple of days later. The showers that move through will not be heavy enough to significantly improve drought conditions in the region.

Central/Southern Plains: Besides some periodic showers moving through Texas, the Central Plains will remain on the drier side through the end of the week. Temperatures will waffle around as clippers go by to the north and a larger system may go through Sunday and Monday that may have widespread precipitation for southern and eastern Texas and another burst of colder air.

Midwest: Lake-effect snow showers linger through the area on Thursday with another burst of colder air for the end of the week. Temperatures will rise this weekend and though a system will go through Sunday through Tuesday with scattered showers, the drop in temperatures will not be as severe as we have seen lately and temperatures will rise again later next week. The rain and potential snow from the system could be heavy over some of the drought areas.

Lower Mississippi: Water levels on the Mississippi River are above the low mark, but are still falling. A system provided scattered rain showers to the Southern Delta on Wednesday, but showers were more limited to the north. There could be a significant system that moves through on Sunday through Tuesday with better chances for heavier precipitation in parts of the region, which could be a temporary lift to water levels.

Europe: Several fronts and systems will continue to move through the continent through early next week, allowing for quite a lot of precipitation for France, Germany, and the UK. Some of these areas are too wet as winter wheat continues to go dormant, but they may receive a brief break in widespread, heavy precipitation during the middle of next week. Southern areas will enjoy the continued rainfall, though Spain may miss out on a lot of the precipitation until late next week.

Black Sea: Precipitation picked up in the east recently, helping to build some soil moisture as wheat continues to go dormant in mostly poor condition there. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to get a good start when the crop comes out of dormancy in the spring. Precipitation may pick up this weekend into next week and would be helpful if it does. Some of the heaviest precipitation may favor central Ukraine with lighter showers favoring western Russia.

Australia: Scattered showers in the east have been heavy over the last week. Another system will move through Friday through the weekend with more showers for the southeast as well. The rain is unfavorable for winter wheat and canola harvest, but good for cotton and sorghum development. Soil moisture is improving in many areas, though western areas are much drier and showers will be isolated to the far southwest through early next week.

 

The player sheet for Dec. 5 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 7,000 corn, buyers of 4,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: Exporters sold 136,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to top-importer China for 2024/25 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 111,405 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is Dec. 10. A previously issued tender from Bangladesh also seeking 50,000 tons of rice closed on Dec. 2.
• FEED CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued a new international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil
• NON-GMO SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase a total of 70,000 metric tons of food-quality soybeans free of genetically modified organisms.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins.

 

TODAY

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Nov. 28, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 670k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 415k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Mexico with 152k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following  shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Nov. 28, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 24.1k tons of the 61.7k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

Canada 2024 Wheat Crop Est. 35M Tons, Canola 17.8M: StatsCan

Wheat production seen 665,000 tons higher than previously expected, according to estimates released Thursday by Statistics Canada on its website.

• In a Bloomberg survey, analysts were expecting 34.3m tons
• Durum wheat revised down by 163,000 tons
• Canola revised down by 1.135m tons to 17.845m tons

 

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Dec. 5: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 corn and soybean area planted estimates are maintained
• Soybean planting advances to 53.8% complete and corn planting 47.8% complete

 

Upside to Argentina Wheat Crop on Better-Than-Expected Yields

Analysis of fields in the southern breadbasket region indicate that yields will be better than originally forecast, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.

• Once farmers start collecting plants and the analysis is confirmed, the exchange would increase its harvest estimate of 18.6m metric tons
• Optimism in the breadbasket comes as yields in another key wheat region, the “zona nucleo,” also come in higher than first thought

 

Brazil November Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

• Soybean exports fell 51% in November from a year ago
• Corn exports fell 36% y/y
• Coffee exports rose 22% y/y

 

CPOPC sees 2025 palm oil prices at 4,000-5,000 rgt/T, Malaysia state media reports

Palm oil prices could range between 4,000-5,000 ringgit ($906.00-$1,133) per tonne in 2025, driven by stagnating production in key markets, Malaysia’s state news agency Bernama reported on Friday, citing the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries (CPOPC).

Growing global demand and slower production in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s two biggest producers, would likely result in a supply shortage that drives prices higher, CPOPC deputy secretary-general Nageeb Wahab was quoted as saying.

Current price levels of around 5,000 ringgit per tonne might be temporary, largely influenced by recent floods in Malaysia, he added, Bernama reported.

Nageeb said there were efforts to get Thailand, the world’s third-largest producer, to join the CPOPC, which he said would give the group’s members control of up to 95% of global palm oil production and significantly strengthen their influence.

“Then we will have a stronger voice,” Nageeb said, according to Bernama.

 

French Wheat Planting and Corn Harvesting Both Near End: AgriMer

About 96% of the French soft-wheat crop was planted as of Dec. 2, compared with 87% last year and a five-year average of 93%, FranceAgriMer said on its website.

• Some 86% of the soft-wheat was in “good” or “very good” condition, compared with 87% a week earlier
• 99% of the winter-barley crop was planted, compared with a five-year average of 97%
  • Some 83% of the winter barley was in “good” or “very good” condition, down slightly from a week earlier
• 78% of the durum-wheat crop was planted, compared with a five-year average of 72%
• About 94% of the French corn crop was harvested as of Monday, up from 89% the previous week, but still lagging behind the five-year average of 98%

 

Argus Sees Russia’s 2025-26 Wheat Production at 81.5M Tons

Argus sees Russia’s 2025-26 wheat crop totaling 81.5m tons after a crop assessment, their first of the season, the company’s Konstantin Rozhnov said during a presentation at the European Commodities Exchange in Paris.

• Argus sees production range with a low end possible at 77.4m tons and a high end at 85.6m
• For the 2024-25 season, as of November there were 26m tons of Russian wheat left for export in the second half of the season
  • Russian wheat sellers are under pressure to diversify; the country has been increasingly present in the Southeast Asian market since the beginning of this marketing year
• Russia wheat crop conditions are estimated to be the worst since at least 2003 due to adverse weather, said Angelika Melikian, Argus crop tour manager. Conditions may improve if weather situation gets better, she said
• Ukraine’s 2025-26 wheat crop was pegged at 23.7m tons
• On France, analyst Maxence Devillers said French exports are still lagging compared to the usual pace; there are limited outlets for French wheat outside the EU

 

Global Food Prices Rise in November Led by Vegetable Oil Costs

Global food prices rose 0.5% in November to the highest level since April 2023, led by gains in vegetable oils, according to an index of food-commodity prices from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.

• The FAO vegetable oil index climbed 7.5% month-on-month to the highest since July 2022
• Dairy prices also increased, while grains, sugar and meat costs fell

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 793k tons in the week ending Nov. 30 from 893k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 34% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 13.5% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $15.40 per short ton, a decline of $0.52 from the previous week

 

 

 

 

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