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Global Ag News For Feb 23

TODAY—WEEKLY DELIVERABLE STOCKS–

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 6 cents, HRW down 8; HRS Wheat down 4, Corn is up 3 cents; Soybeans up 19; Soymeal up $5.00, and Soyoil up 55 points.

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 21 yuan in soybeans, down 31 in Corn, up 27 in Soymeal, up 52 in Soyoil, and up 36 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 126 ringgit at 3,670 (basis May) following rival oils.

Net drying will continue across most of Argentina through next Monday; though, there will be some locally meaningful rain. Last evening’s GFS model run was notably wetter than the midday European Model. Last evening’s GFS model was drier than the midday GFS model for week 2 of the outlook; though, it continued to showed greater coverage of meaningful moisture compared to week 1.

Most of Brazil will continue to be favorable; though, some areas will still be wetter than preferred.

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 12,000 SRW Wheat; net bought 25,000 contracts of Corn; bought 6,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 2,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 27,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 369,000 Corn; net long 160,000 Soybeans; net long 64,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 114,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 1,700 contracts; HRW Wheat down 3,900; Corn down 15,300; Soybeans down 4,600 contracts; Soymeal up 800 lots, and; Soyoil down 2,400.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 49 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 169; Soyoil 1,286 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 732; HRW Wheat 91, and; HRS 1,023. 

Wheat exports are running down 2% with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year. Corn up 80%; USDA up 46%. Soybeans up 77%; USDA up 34%.

Wire story had less than two years ago the United States was drowning in excess soybean supplies, mostly due to trade interruptions with top buyer China. But relative to domestic demand, U.S. stockpiles are forecast to be record-tight later this year, and according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, not even a record crop this summer can ease the situation much by mid-2022.

Condition ratings for winter wheat declined during February in Kansas, the top U.S. winter wheat producer, but monthly ratings were mixed in other Plains states, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said. The USDA issued its last national winter wheat ratings for 2020 on Nov. 30, reporting 46% of the U.S. crop in good to excellent condition as of Nov. 29.

  • The USDA rated 40% of the Kansas winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition as of Feb. 21, down from 43% a month earlier. A year ago, 35% of the Kansas crop was rated good to excellent.
  • Winter wheat ratings also declined in Oklahoma, but improved in South Dakota, Colorado and Montana.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will not act on any pending petitions from small refiners for exemptions to U.S. biofuel blending laws until after the Supreme Court reviews a related case.

  • BRAZIL 2020/2021 SOYBEAN HARVESTING ADVANCES TO 15% OF PLANTED AREA THROUGH FEB 18 VERSUS 31% AT THIS TIME LAST SEASON – AGRURAL
  • PACE OF BRAZIL’S SOYBEAN HARVESTING IS THE SLOWEST FOR MID-FEBRUARY FOR THE PAST 10 YEARS – AGRURAL
  • HARVESTING DELAYS IMPACTING LOGISTICS AND BRAZIL’S ABILITY TO EXPORT SOYBEANS FROM THE NEW CROP – AGRURAL
  • RAINY WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST THE FIRST DAYS OF MARCH; FARMERS CONTINUE TO HARVEST SOYBEANS TO PREVENT POTENTIAL LOSSES – AGRURAL

Showers on Argentina’s Pampas grains belt in recent weeks have helped make up for the dryness that parched soy and corn crops from the middle of last year, weather experts said on Monday. Farmers are now hoping for enough rain to boost yields after the country’s two main cash crops were hit by an unusual lack of precipitation before a resurgence of wet weather in January.

Ukraine have sharply increased milling wheat imports so far this season due to a jump in domestic prices, analyst APK-Inform said. The country, which has exported around 13 million tonnes of wheat so far 2020/21 July-June season, has imported 14,500 tonnes of the commodity to the date, the consultancy said.

Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 16.59 million tonnes by Feb. 21, data published by the European Commission showed. That was down from 20.34 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season

European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 9.36 million tonnes by Feb. 21. That compared with 9.13 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season.

Euronext front-month wheat on Monday remained close to the 7-1/2 year highs hit on Friday, as concern about tightening supplies and strong demand continued to fuel a global rally on wheat markets. March milling wheat was up 0.4%, or 1.0 euro, at 239.75 euros ($291.0) a tonne. The contract earlier on Monday hit 241.75 euros, close to Friday’s peak of 242.75 euros a tonne, the highest front-month price since May 2013.

South African maize farmers are expected to harvest 10% more of the staple crop in the 2020/2021 season compared with the previous season, despite heavy rainfall in parts of the country, a Reuters survey showed. South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) is expected to peg maize production at 16.872 million tonnes for the 2020/2021 season, up from the 15.300 million tonnes planted last season.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Feb. 1-20 rose 28.2 percent to 734,622 tonnes from 572,910 tonnes shipped during Jan. 1-20, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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