Global Ag News For Feb 26.2026

TOP HEADLINES

USDA Says $1.6 Billion in Farm Aid Already Sent for Payment

The US Department of Agriculture has sent roughly $1.6 billion in farm aid out for payment under the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program in the last 72 hours, Richard Fordyce, an agency undersecretary, said Wednesday at the Commodity Classic convention in San Antonio.

• Fordyce said the agency has received 32,000 applications submitted online so far
• The USDA began accepting applications for the $12 billion aid program on Feb. 23
  • The enrollment period closes April 17
• Farmers applying online can expect payments to arrive as early as Feb. 28, the agency has said

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/4 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal up $2.70; Soyoil down 0.43.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 8 1/2 in SRW, down 21 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/2; Soybeans up 13 3/4; Soymeal up $10.10; Soyoil up 1.00.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 25 in SRW, up 8 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 8; Soybeans up 91; Soymeal up $27.00; Soyoil up 6.18.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 11.9% in SRW, up 7.4% in HRW, up 1.1% in HRS; Corn is down 1.9%; Soybeans up 11.6%; Soymeal up 8.9%; Soyoil up 24.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans up 18 yuan; Soymeal up 9; Soyoil up 6; Palm oil down 78; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is down 48.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 48 ringgit (-1.18%) at 4005.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 9 Corn; 301 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 25 were: SRW Wheat down 9,200 contracts, HRW Wheat down 6,728, Corn down 14,323, Soybeans down 2,563, Soymeal up 2,571, Soyoil down 7,450.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 26 FEBRUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm temperatures persist across most of the U.S., with heavy precipitation in the Southern Plains and lower Midwest.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Warm, wet conditions will persist across the northern Pampas corn and soybean regions, while Brazil’s Center-West and South turn dry, and heavy rainfall remains confined to the Southeast and Northeast.
• EUROPE: Central and Western Europe will see heat risks over the next 15 days, with dry spells across the region.
• ASIA: Near‑normal to slightly cooler temperatures are expected across Southeast Asia and South India over the next 15 days, with mixed conditions in East. Asia will remain mostly dry, except for brief wet spells in Vietnam and China’s crop‑growing regions.
• AUSTRALIA: Moderate to heavy rains may support crop conditions across Australia’s major production belts, while flood risks remain confined to southeastern Queensland.
• AFRICA: Dry weather may favor cocoa harvesting in Ghana, while moderate rains may support for South Africa and Ethiopia crop developments.
• TELECONNECTIONS: The positive Antarctic Oscillation pattern is expected to sustain wet conditions across southeastern Australia into mid‑March.

 

CENTRAL BRAZIL AND PAMPAS CORN/SOYBEAN REGIONS TO REMAIN DRY

Wednesday, February 25th 2026, 9:31:10 am, Narasimha Rao Nalamasu

by Narasimha Rao Nalamasu, Weather Research Specialist

Weather Anomaly Severity: Moderate

Crops impacted: corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar

Preferred model for the next 5 days: GFS Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day  timeframe: GFS Ens

Forecast confidence: High through 5-days; Moderate in 6-15-days

Model Change (from previous update):  Drier in Center West and South Brazil

 

Brazil: Widespread heavy rain continues in Brazil on Wednesday before it starts to go isolated and migrate to northern areas. The current rain favors newly-planted safrinha corn, but soil moisture is still tenuous. Consistent, heavy rainfall needs to continue for the next two months to put the corn in good standing for pollination and grain fill. Currently, the forecast is not favorable for that situation, which will cause problems for corn should this not reverse.

Argentina: Showers have become spotty over the last week, which is forecast to continue into March. This will not be enough to lift areas out of drought in any significant way, and the trend toward lower crop ratings will likely resume. Outside of a few lucky spots, February rainfall has been below-normal like January had been, which is causing concern for both corn and soybean production.

Northern Plains: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered snow Friday-Saturday. Isolated snow Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday, near to below normal north and above normal south Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday. Outlook: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday. 

Midwest – West: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday, south Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday, below normal Sunday.

Midwest – East: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered snow Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday, below normal Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday.

 

The player sheet for 2/25 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,500 corn, sellers of 7,500 soybeans, buyers of 6,500 soymeal, and buyers of 9,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE UPDATE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased about 600,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Tuesday with negotiations continuing on Wednesday, European traders said.
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender, European traders said. Traders reported that only U.S. corn was offered in the tender. Price offers for Brazilian, Argentine and South African corn were requested by MFIG but none were reported.
• CORN TENDER OFFER: Turkey gets offers in 350,000 ton corn purchase tender, traders say. The lowest offer in the first round of the tender from Turkey’s state grain board TMO to buy 350,000 metric ton of animal feed corn on Thursday was believed to be $248.80 a metric ton cost and freight included (c&f), traders said in initial assessments.
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday, European traders said. A new tender for 120,000 tons of feed barley is expected to be issued by Jordan in coming days with anticipated submission of price offers on March 4, traders said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 3.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 13.
• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia has issued a tender to purchase 655,000 metric tons of wheat, the Saudi state grains buying agency General Food Security Authority said on Thursday. The delivery of the wheat is scheduled for the period from May through July, according to the GFSA.

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Feb. 19.

• Corn est. range 900k – 2,200k tons, with avg of 1,575k
• Soybean est. range 300k – 900k tons, with avg of 531k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.2% to 25.646M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.927 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.113m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.132m

 

SovEcon Lowers Russian Wheat-Export Outlook to 45.4m Tons

SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russia’s 2025–26 wheat exports by 0.3m tons to 45.4m tons, citing weaker competitiveness of Russian wheat compared with EU supplies, the consultancy said in a note.

• The downgrade to the current-season wheat outlook reflects narrowing price differentials. Romanian and Russian 12.5% wheat are currently trading at roughly similar levels, whereas for most of the season Russian wheat was offered at a several-dollar discount
• It doesn’t expect a significant increase in export quotations through the end of the season
• “Russian wheat has largely lost its traditional price advantage over EU origins, and that is limiting export momentum,” SovEcon head Andrey Sizov said in the note. “Without serious weather disruptions or new geopolitical shocks, we see little scope for a sustained price rally before the season ends”
  • Meanwhile, the total grain export forecast was raised by 0.1m tons from the January outlook, reflecting higher projections for corn at 3.4m tons and barley at 4.3m tons
• SovEcon also updated its wheat export outlook for the 2026-27 season, raising it by 2.1m tons to 41.7m tons

 

EPA to Send Biofuel Plan to White House in Sign Decision Near

The Trump administration is moving closer to finalizing long-awaited guidance on mandates for mixing renewable fuels with gasoline and diesel, a move poised to end months of regulatory limbo that has weighed on the agribusiness industry.

The Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday will send its proposal for the next round of biofuel-blending quotas — or Renewable Volume Obligations — to the White House Budget office for review, according to the Renewable Fuels Association, citing the EPA’s Aaron Szabo speaking at a conference. That’s a significant step as it signals the long-delayed guidelines are about to be finalized.

The office’s review process can take several weeks, meaning the release of the guidelines will likely come in March.

Biofuels are seen as key to boosting incomes for farmers as they seek more markets for their record-size corn crops. Agriculture companies have been anxiously awaiting more certainty, as the continued deferral of a decision has weighed on demand for the fuel

The guidelines also have been a major issue for the oil sector. The administration must decide — among other things — whether and how to force bigger refineries to compensate for exemptions to blending mandates given to smaller facilities. The lack of clarity has left companies uncertain over how they will be impacted.

 

Ukraine’s grain deliveries to ports rise in February, railway says

Ukraine’s grain deliveries to its Black Sea ports for export have risen by 2% so far in February compared with January, but volumes remain below February 2025 levels, state railway Ukrzaliznytsia said on Thursday.

The railway said in a report it had delivered about 2 million metric tons of grain so far this month, down 1.4% from a year earlier.

“This year we face challenges – attacks on (railway) infrastructure and power substations, which did not happen last year,” the company said.

A transport industry source, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, told Reuters this month that strikes on the Odesa port hub in recent months had reduced its export capacity by up to 30% from pre-war levels.

The southern Odesa region – home to a major shipping hub with terminals at the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi – has been targeted since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

Attacks on port infrastructure, which have driven up logistics and freight costs, have hit local businesses by forcing them to cut prices to stay competitive on global markets.

Constant power outages caused by Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector have worsened the situation, in some cases making production unprofitable.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that Russia had hit Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with a barrage of drones and missiles overnight.

 

India Scraps South American Soy Oil Cargoes as Prices Rally

India, the world’s biggest soybean oil buyer, canceled several more cargoes from South America as a rally in international prices gave traders an opportunity to book profits.

About 65,000 to 75,000 tons that Indian traders booked for April to July have been scrapped in recent days, said Aashish Acharya, vice president at Patanjali Foods Ltd., one of India’s top vegetable oil buyers. The move involves buyers canceling the cargoes and effectively selling them back to the supplier at a higher price, providing a profit of roughly $40 to $60 a ton, Acharya said.

The amount of so-called washed out soybean oil could reach around 100,000 to 120,000 tons in the coming days, he said. Several other vegetable oil traders confirmed the moves to Bloomberg.

Benchmark soybean oil futures have rallied to a more than two-year high in Chicago amid stronger energy prices, Washington’s trade deal with India and optimism that US biofuels blending quotas will support demand. The cargo cancellations come as Indian buyers have enough soybean oil and expect a potentially record South American crop to bolster supplies from around April.

“Buyers who previously purchased contracts at lower prices of around $1,080 to $1,100 a ton are now exiting those positions, as prices have risen to $1,140 to $1,147.50,” Acharya said. There will be more “in and out” trading as the market braces for large South American supplies, he added.

When buyers decide not to take delivery of cargoes, sellers typically then won’t need to source physical supplies and incur related costs. Canceling shipments now can also reduce the risk Indian traders could face in selling the oil locally later in the year, when new South American supplies could pressure the market.

India has already canceled soybean oil cargoes. Earlier this year, it backed out of at least 35,000 to 40,000 tons from Brazil and Argentina as the rupee’s slump made imports more expensive and uneconomical. That followed the scrapping or delay of more than 100,000 tons of Argentinian deals in December.

The bumper South American soy crop is expected to hit the market between April and July, which will likely drag down prices, said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, head of trading and hedging strategies at Kaleesuwari Intercontinental. That’s why the recent rise in US soy oil futures — which sets the tone for physical prices — had prompted the washouts, he said.

Meanwhile in the US, the Environmental Protection Agency is expected to send its proposal for biofuel-blending guidelines to the White House for review on Wednesday, a significant step as it signals the long-awaited guidelines are about to be finalized.

Expectations for more US exports to India and increased biofuel use in America have made soyoil one of the best-performing commodities so far in 2026, with gains of more than 20%, compared to a rise of about 10% in whole soybeans.

 

Nepal’s soyoil exports to India jump tenfold on duty free access

Nepal’s soybean oil exports to India jumped more than tenfold in 2025 to a record high, boosted by duty-free access that helped the Himalayan nation double total exports to its neighbour, industry officials told Reuters.

The surge narrowed Nepal’s trade deficit with India but pressured edible oil prices in border regions, making it harder for Indian refiners paying import duties to compete with cheaper supplies.

India imported a record 694,153 metric tons of soyoil from Nepal in 2025, up from 65,138 tons a year ago, according to data compiled by India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

The world’s largest importer of vegetable oils raised import duty on refined soyoil to 35.75% in September 2024 from 13.75% previously.

The hike prompted Nepali refiners to boost imports of crude soyoil from Brazil and Argentina, process it locally, and ship the refined oil into India duty-free under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA).

Soyoil exports worth over $1 billion helped Nepal double its total goods exports to India to $2 billion in 2025 from a year earlier.

Nepal’s share of India’s 5.6 million-ton soyoil imports rose to 12.3% in 2025, making it the third-largest exporter after Argentina and Brazil.

The country exports around 60,000 to 70,000 tons of soybean oil to India, and shipments could rise slightly in 2026 as two to three new refineries become operational, said Vikkas Dugar, managing director of Nepalese refiner Swastik Oil Industries.

“Nepal is landlocked, so we first import crude soyoil through Haldia Port in India, transport it by land to refineries, and then send the refined oil back to India. This adds significant costs,” said Dugar.

Refined soyoil from Nepal is slightly cheaper than locally processed Indian oil due to the duty differential, he said.

Indian refiners, however, argue that Nepali supplies are disrupting domestic prices.

While Nepali exports enter duty-free, Indian refiners must pay a 16.5% import duty on crude soyoil, effectively making their own supplies more expensive and less competitive, said B V Mehta, executive director of The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

“India needs to import edible oils to meet a shortfall in local production. Nepal’s duty advantage is now diverting soybean oil through the Himalayan nation rather than allowing it to arrive directly from Argentina and Brazil,” said Mehta.

 

India braces for unusually hot March; wheat, rapeseed crops at risk, sources say

India is likely to record one of its warmest Marches on record, with above-average temperatures forecast in key wheat and rapeseed-growing states, potentially cutting yields, two weather bureau sources said on Thursday.

India, the world’s second-largest wheat producer and biggest importer of edible oils, is counting on bumper 2026 crops to export surplus wheat and cut costly imports of palm, soy, and sunflower oils.

However, higher temperatures during the crucial grain-filling and maturity stages could cut yields, trimming overall production that was expected to reach a record high.

Higher temperatures in March are expected to boost electricity demand.

“Maximum and minimum temperatures in northern and north-western states are likely to be significantly above average in March,” said a senior official at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), who did not wish to be identified ahead of the official announcement from the weather office.

The IMD is expected to release its forecast for March temperatures later this week. It did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the March temperature outlook.

Maximum temperatures in March are expected to stay up to 7 degrees Celsius above normal in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and parts of Madhya Pradesh, the official said.

These states account for over 80% of India’s total wheat and rapeseed production.

Winter crops, such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas, are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions throughout their growth cycle for optimal yields.

India was forced to ban wheat exports in 2022 after a warm February and March shrivelled the wheat crop.

“Persistent above normal temperatures throughout the first half of March could add to heat stress,” said Ashwini Bansod, vice president for commodities research at Phillip Capital India, a Mumbai-based brokerage.

Indian farmers have planted wheat and rapeseed on a record area this year.

Day temperatures are expected to start rising in the next few days and by the end of March maximum temperatures could exceed 40 degrees Celsius (104°F) in many states, said the second IMD official.

 

 

 

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