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Global Ag News for Feb 4.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Soaked Malaysia Farms See Palm Output Slump With More Rain Ahead

Palm oil production in Malaysia likely fell to an 11-month low in January as heavy rains pummeled farms, and more storms ahead could compound the problem.

The states of Sabah and Sarawak, which witnessed severe flooding in late January, are predicted to get more rains this week, according to the Malaysian Meteorological Department. Both the states are substantial palm growers, and the saturated fields have disrupted harvesting and transport in the world’s second-largest grower.

Weaker supplies in the Southeast Asian nation may underpin benchmark palm oil prices, which have fallen more than 16% since early December on poor demand. It could be a setback for traders in top importers India and China, who were hoping that the tropical oil may stay cheaper than soybean oil, after commanding a rare premium for about four months until early January.

Output fell about 10% from a month earlier to 1.34 million tons in January, according to the median of eight estimates in a Bloomberg survey of plantation executives, traders and analysts. That would be a fifth month of declines and 4.3% lower than a year earlier, the survey showed. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will publish its official data on Monday.

Continuous torrential rains in the country last month made the situation worse, especially in Sarawak, said Sathia Varqa, an analyst at Fastmarkets Palm Oil Analytics in Singapore. The state is Malaysia’s top oil palm growing region.

Malaysian inventories may fall 2.9% from a month earlier to 1.66 million tons in January, the survey showed. That would be a fourth monthly drop and the lowest since April 2023. Exports probably slumped 14.2% to 1.15 million tons, the lowest since February, according to the survey.

Palm oil futures traded 1.7% lower at $4,294 ringgit a ton ($961) at 3:08 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur, as imports by India, the world’s biggest buyer, tumbled to the lowest in 11 years in January.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/2 in SRW, down 4 in HRW, down 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans down 1/2; Soymeal up $3.90; Soyoil down 1.21.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 3 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, down 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 5 3/4; Soybeans up 12 3/4; Soymeal up $5.10; Soyoil down 0.75.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 2.0% in SRW, up 3.8% in HRW, up 2.4% in HRS; Corn is up 6.4%; Soybeans up 5.7%; Soymeal down 0.5%; Soyoil up 14.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal down 35; Soyoil up 40; Palm oil up 78; Corn up 7 — Malaysian Palm is down 59.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 59 ringgit (-1.35%) at 4308.

China markets remain closed for Holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 3 were: SRW Wheat up 4,418 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,565, Corn down 9,930, Soybeans up 10,496, Soymeal up 1,273, Soyoil up 10,290.

 

Brazil: Very heavy rainfall over the weekend in central Brazil is likely to have caused delays in soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. Showers will ease up from east to west across the region this week, offering up another window for fieldwork to get done. However, showers will still be in the area and could lengthen delays for some. Fieldwork is well behind the normal pace and the window is very short for making for timely planting of safrinha corn, which is being watched closely.

Argentina: It was hot and dry over the weekend and soil moisture and crop conditions likely fell again. A couple of fronts will move through southern areas through Wednesday, offering chances for some heavier rain to areas that have seen very little over the last several weeks. That should help to stabilize crop conditions, but not make for much of a turnaround. Another period of dry weather will follow the second front for late week and weekend. Some additional fronts will be possible next week, though precipitation chances are uncertain.

Northern Plains: Cold air plunged into the region over the weekend and will be hard to get rid of this month. Some streaks of snow went through, which are helpful for the drought situation, but much more is needed. The primary storm track will be to the south, but some precipitation will move through this month as well.

Central/Southern Plains: It was warm and dry this weekend. A cold front will drop south into the region Monday, bringing some milder air to northern areas. A system will develop along the front on Wednesday, but most of the precipitation is forecast to the east. The same goes for another this weekend. The weather pattern will be active though, bringing through many chances for precipitation this month. Shots of cold air will move down through the region next week and if wheat areas remain uncovered by snow, it could cause further concerns with winterkill.

Midwest: Very warm conditions were noted over the weekend as well as some precipitation over the north. Another streak of snow is moving across northern areas for Monday. A system will develop along the cold front from this system on Wednesday, spreading a mix of precipitation types across the region. Cold air hanging out in the Northern Plains will eventually move into the region next week, replacing the general warmth this week.

Lower Mississippi: A system last week caused water levels to rise. An active weather pattern for February is likely to keep water levels up going into spring.

 

The player sheet for Feb. 3 had funds: net buyers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 16,500 corn, buyers of 10,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • CORN, BARLEY AND SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of corn, 120,000 tons of barley and 60,000 tons of soymeal
  • CORN AND BARLEY TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued three international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 35,000 tons of feed barley and 35,000 tons of soymeal.

 PENDING TENDERS

  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat from optional origins
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

Map of Indonesia 

 

TODAY

Soybeans Decline as China Retaliates With Tariffs on US Goods

Soybeans declined as Beijing imposed tariffs on US energy and agricultural equipment in retaliation to President Donald Trump’s 10% levy on Chinese goods, raising concerns over a bruising trade war.

The move by China immediately followed the start of Trump’s tariffs, which took effect at 1:01 p.m. in Beijing. The Asian nation is a major buyer of US soybeans and protracted trade tensions could potentially dent American sales.

The market will be watching for any cooling around the trade spat from planned talks between Washington and Beijing, which Trump said on Monday would take place “probably over the next 24 hours.” The US president already delayed the start of tariffs on Canada and Mexico by a month.

Some $10 billion or more of US agricultural exports are under threat from a trade war, based on history, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts wrote ahead of the tariff announcement. Under the previous Trump administration, soybean exports to China slumped to just $3 billion in 2018 from $14 billion two years earlier.

 

US Inspected 1.252m Tons of Corn for Export, 1.013m of Soybeans

In week ending Jan. 30, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

  • Soybeans: 1,013k tons vs 738k the previous wk, 1,752k a yr ago
  • Wheat: 253k tons vs 485k the previous wk, 296k a yr ago
  • Corn: 1,252k tons vs 1,251k the previous wk, 645k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Jan. 30

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Jan. 30 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

  • Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 348k tons of the 1.01m total inspected
  • Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Philippines led in wheat

 

US Soybean Crushings at 217.7M Bushels in December: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

  • Crushing 6.6% higher than same period last year
  • Crude oil production 8.3% higher than same period last year
  • Crude and once-refined oil stocks down 7% y/y

 

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 473.2M Bu in December

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

  • Corn for ethanol was 2.3% lower than in December 2023
  • DDGS production fell to 1.876m tons

 

US Winter Wheat Crop Conditions by State for Feb. 2: USDA

The following shows the most current winter wheat conditions for selected states as of Feb. 2, according to the USDA’s state crop progress and conditions reports.

  • Kansas good/excellent rating raised to 50% for the week ending Sunday vs 47% in the week ending Jan. 5
  • Oklahoma conditions declined by 5 percentage points to 40% good/excellent
  • In Texas, where conditions have been reported weekly since mid-Jan., crops rated good/excellent fell by 5 percentage points from the previous week

 

Celeres raises forecast for Brazil’s soy crop; harvest delay persists

Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop is expected to reach a record 174 million metric tons, agribusiness consultancy Celeres said on Monday, bumping up its forecast from a prior 170.8 million tons due to positive weather conditions.

That would be 15 million tons more than in 2023/24, when farmers grappled with adverse weather, Celeres said, adding that the bumper crop would be driven by higher yields in Brazil’s center-western, northern and northeastern regions.

Agribusiness consultancies have been widely expecting a record crop in Brazil this season, with many forecasting output to exceed 170 million tons.

Celeres noted that fresh revisions to its forecast could be made as harvesting efforts advance.

“Data on the soybean harvest, which remains delayed, will be incorporated into upcoming production estimates, with adjustments to the crop figure expected in the coming months,” the analysts said.

On the other hand, consultancy firm StoneX marginally cut on Monday its 2024/25 estimate for the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans by 0.3%, to 170.9 million tons.

StoneX said the cut reflects dry weather risk in Rio Grande do Sul, Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul states.

 

StoneX Lowers Brazil Soy Output, Still Sees Record in 2024-25

Forecast cut to 170.9 million tons from 171.4 million tons estimated in January, StoneX said in a statement.

  • Crop expected to be 14% larger compared to prior year, setting record
    • Forecasts cut for three states, but raised outlook for largest producer Mato Grosso by 22%
  • Soybeans exports forecast increased by 1.5m tons from previous month to 108.5m ton
    • “Significant changes could occur, especially considering the tensions between the US and China”
  • Corn estimate increased by 0.6%, to 129.4m tons, 6.9% larger than prior season
    • First corn crop raised by 2.4% due to higher yields, planted area
    • Second corn crop, largest in the country, slightly increased because of larger planted area
    • Corn exports estimate maintained at 42m tons

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soy Harvest 9% Done as of Jan. 30: AgRural

Compares with 4% a week earlier and 16% in the same period last year, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

  • Harvesting pace improved in key producer state Mato Grosso with a break in recent rains, AgRural says
    • Parana state still leads soy harvesting pace
  • Winter corn seeding in the Center-South of Brazil was 9% completed, compared to 2.2% in the previous week and 27% a year ago
  • Summer corn harvest reaches 14% in the Center-South, versus 9% a week earlier and 17% in the same period last year

 

EU Holds Total Grain Crop Forecast at 255.8m Tons for 2024-25

The EU’s total grain production will be 255.8m tons in the 2024-25 season, steady from a December estimate, the European Commission said in a report.

  • All the following production estimates held stead from the previous month:
    • Soft wheat seen at 111.9m tons
    • Barley seen at 49.4m tons
    • Corn at 59.5m tons

 

India Palm Imports at 11-Year Low on Rare Premium, Bajoria Says

Palm oil imports by India tumbled to the lowest in 11 years as a rare premium over rival soybean oil and cold weather conditions prompted local traders and refiners to cut purchases, according to a broker.

Inbound shipments fell more than 50% to 242,000 tons in January from a month earlier, said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive officer of Mumbai-based Sunvin Group. That’s the lowest since at least November 2013, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, a group of vegetable oil processors.

Lower imports by India could put pressure on benchmark palm oil futures, which advanced almost 20% in 2024.

Palm oil traded at a premium over soyoil between September and early January, as prices of the tropical oil rallied on production concerns, and soybean oil fell because of an ample supply outlook. That was an unusual scenario as palm is usually cheaper than other edible oils because it’s produced round-the-year and needs less land to grow.

“Palm oil was expensive and that’s why Indian buyers moved to soybean and sunflower oils,” said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the association. Also, the South Asian nation tends to reduce buying of palm during winter months as it solidifies at lower temperatures, forcing consumers to seek alternatives, he said.

The processors’ group will release its January vegetable oil import data in the middle of February.

 

SovEcon Raises Russian Wheat Export Forecast for 2025-26 Season

SovEcon increased its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports in the 2025-26 season to 38.3m tons from 36.4m tons, the consultant said in a note.

  • Increase comes on higher than expected beginning stock, with exports seen lower in the prior season and smaller domestic consumption
  • That would peg exports lower than during the 2024-25 season, which SovEcon sees at 42.8m tons
  • Ukrainian exports for the 2025-26 season were cut to 16m tons from 16.2 m tons to reflect smaller starting stock

 

U.S. Reliance on Canadian Fertilizer Will Cost U.S. Consumers

Canada’s fertilizer companies are well-positioned to navigate the U.S. tariffs, but CIBC’s Hamir Patel says the burden of higher prices will fall almost completely on U.S. consumers. In a report, he notes the U.S. dependence on Canadian potash, and because of this, the tariff burden will first be passed on to U.S. farmers in the form of higher fertilizer prices, and then to consumers through higher end-product prices. “U.S. imports comprised about 95% of domestic potash consumption from 2020-2024, with Canada representing 79% of potash imports,” he says. Canada’s retaliation may add further burden to U.S. farmers since Canada indicated that its retaliatory response may also include non-tariff measures that could relate to critical minerals.

 

 

 

 

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