Global Ag News For Feb 6.2026

TOP HEADLINES

FAO Sees Global Grain Stock-to-Use Ratio at 25-Year High

Global grain stock-to-use ratio is forecast to rise to 31.8% in the 2025-26 season, the highest level since 2001, according to a report from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

• Global output is expected to be at a record 3.02b tons, the report says on Friday
  • Cites higher-than-foreseen wheat yields in Argentina, Canada and the EU
• Stockpiles are now seen at 936.4 million tons

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 1 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal up $1.90; Soyoil down 0.38.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 4 in SRW, down 7 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 4 3/4; Soybeans up 48; Soymeal up $11.50; Soyoil up 1.77.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 5.3% in SRW, up 4.3% in HRW, down 0.8% in HRS; Corn is down 1.6%; Soybeans up 7.9%; Soymeal up 3.6%; Soyoil up 15.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans down 12 yuan; Soymeal up 8; Soyoil down 30; Palm oil down 78; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is down 53.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 53 ringgit (-1.26%) at 4153.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 301 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 5 were: SRW Wheat down 755 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,963, Corn up 4,258, Soybeans up 16,988, Soymeal up 1,618, Soyoil up 7,973.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 06 FEBRUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Above‑normal temperatures are expected across the Plains, with wetter conditions in the Northern/South Plains, West, and the north Midwest, and drier weather elsewhere in the U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Cool and mostly wet conditions will persist across the northern corn and soybean belts of the Pampas and dry elsewhere, whereas central Brazil is expected to experience wetter conditions that may be favorable.
• EUROPE: Central and Western Europe will see above‑normal temperatures over the next five days, turning cooler in days 6–15, with moderate to heavy precipitation across the region.
• ASIA: Southeast Asia and India will see near‑normal to slightly cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, while East Asia trend warmer during days 6–15. Mostly dry conditions will prevail across Asia, with only brief wet spells in Southeast Asia.
• AUSTRALIA: Moderate to heavy rains may support crop conditions across Australia’s major production belts.
• AFRICA: Rains may delay cocoa harvesting in Ghana, while wet spells favor crop development across the Free State region in South Africa’s corn belt.
• TELECONNECTIONS: The MJO forecast indicates an inactive Phase 8, which is not expected to support active tropical weather over the next 15 days.

 

Brazil: Heavy rain continues in central Brazil, which still favors some late-developing soybeans. However, harvest is increasing and the switch over to safrinha corn accelerates in February. Overall soil moisture is still low for this time of year, which may be concerning for the coming corn crop if the rains aren’t consistently heavier over the next two months. Long-range forecasts continue to show below-normal rainfall for central Brazil.

Argentina: A front did bring some heavier rainfall to some of the driest areas of the country on Wednesday, but few areas saw more than an inch. The front will continue showers as it moves north for Thursday and Friday, but with more limited precipitation in the forecast. However, the weather pattern is getting more active and a couple of waves of showers are possible next week that could bring more much-needed rainfall. Crop conditions may fall on today’s crop report due out this afternoon, but the trend may start to reverse if the rain manifests as forecast for the rest of this month.

Northern Plains: Warmer air is forecast through next week. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation in the near future, but nothing that looks particularly heavy as of right now. Snow cover remains low for this time of year and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms starting with a system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday that continues through the rest of the month. The region will take all the precipitation it can get, even if it comes as snow.

Central/Southern Plains: Above-normal temperatures have melted the remaining snow this week and will stick around through next week. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for a while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. There is some potential for bigger storms starting later next week, but they may have a tendency to move through the region without producing much precipitation, gathering strength as they move east. The impact now is unknown.

Midwest: Temperatures have been trying to rise this week, but eastern areas continue to see below-normal temperatures. A larger clipper will move through the Great Lakes with snow on Thursday and Friday, which will bring another round of some really cold air to the east while western areas will be warmer. The warmer air will win out next week, and will open the door for a few larger storm systems for mid-February. That should help some of the drought situation.

Delta: Rising temperatures are helping to break ice up on the rivers and melt the remaining snow and ice in the region. Water levels are dropping again, though, after bouncing upward late last week and weekend. The continual bouncing off of low water levels has led to transportation issues since the fall and are not expected to change much in the coming weeks. The region needs a more active weather pattern. That may start up later next week, but it needs to last a while.

 

The player sheet for 2/5 had funds: net buyers of 5,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 19,000 corn, buyers of 18,500 soybeans, buyers of 8,000 soymeal, and sellers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is February 11.

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 255,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is February 11. Turkey’s disappointing harvest of barley and other grains last year generated a need for imports to stabilize prices and ensure sufficient supplies, traders said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is February 10.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: Corn, Soybean and Wheat Supplies Before WASDE

US 2025-26 corn ending stocks seen at 2.215b bu, slightly below USDA’s previous estimate in January, according to the average in a Bloomberg survey of as many as 25 analysts.

• Estimates varied from 2.022b to 2.315b bu
• US 2025-26 soybean ending stocks seen at 348m bu vs 350m bu in Jan.
• US 2025-26 wheat ending stocks seen at 918m bu vs 926m bu in Jan.

 

CROP SURVEY: Cotton Production, Inventories Before USDA WASDE

US 2025-26 cotton ending stocks seen mostly unchanged compared to USDA’s previous est., according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts.

• US ending stocks seen at 4.21m bales vs 4.2m in Jan.
• The range of estimates varied from 4.1m to 4.4m bales
• Global ending stocks seen at 74.56m bales vs 74.48m

 

US Export Sales of Soy, Corn and Wheat for Week Ending Jan. 29

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Jan. 29, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 233k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Japan with 261k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending Jan. 29

The following table US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Jan. 29, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 13.8k tons of the 35.1k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates Feb. 5: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2025-26 corn production estimate lowered to 57m tons from 58m tons
• Corn planting 99% complete, soybeans 100% complete

 

Brazil January Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

• Soybean exports rose 76% in January from a year ago
• Coffee exports fell 42% y/y
• Beef exports rose 29% y/y

 

Trade estimates for Statistics Canada crop stocks report

Statistics Canada is scheduled to release estimates of Canadian stocks of principal field crops as of December 31, 2025, on Friday, February 6, at 7:30 a.m. CST (1330 GMT).

 

China to Enhance Agricultural Capacity, Stabilize Grain Output

China will enhance agricultural production capacity and stabilize grain output, head of the Office of the Central Rural Work Leading Group Han Wenxiu writes in the Study Times, a journal under the Communist Party’s Central Party School.

• Supports the expansion of key and specialty agricultural exports
• To strengthen market monitoring, and keep grain and other key food prices stable
• To crack down on agricultural product smuggling
• To strengthen tech innovation efficiency in agriculture and accelerate breeding breakthroughs
• To enhance monitoring and forecasting of disasters

 

Brazilian cooperative Coamo says pace of 2025/26 soybean sales behind best seasons

The early sales of 2025/26 soybean harvest by members of Coamo, the biggest grain cooperative in Brazil, have dropped behind the pace seen during the same period of its greatest seasons, Coamo’s executive president Airton Galinari told Reuters on Thursday.

• Coamo’s early sales of the 2025/26 soybean crop reached so far about 16% of the total expected by the cooperative, Galinari said.
• The level is similar to the one seen at this time last year, he added, noting, however, that Coamo “has had years when it exceeded 30% at this time.”

LOWER PRICES, LOGISTICAL CONCERNS

• An expected record harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest producer of soybeans, pressured the oilseed prices, limiting the sales appetite of Coamo’s members, Galinari said.
• A slow sales pace amid a record harvest could also lead to logistical bottlenecks, in case farmers decide to sell their volume at the same time in the future, he added.
• Coamo expects to receive as many as 10 million metric tons of grains including soybeans, corn and wheat from its members in 2026.
• The cooperative’s net revenue in 2025 totaled 28.7 billion reais ($5.47 billion), just below the 28.8 billion reais in 2024, given lower prices despite higher sales volume.

 

BrasilAgro Sees Its 2025/26 Soybean Production At 249,640 Tons

BrasilAgro – Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas AGRO3.SA:

• SEES ITS 2025/26 SOYBEAN PRODUCTION AT 249,640 TONS, DOWN 1% FROM PREVIOUS ESTIMATE – FILING
• SEES ITS 2025/26 SECOND CORN PRODUCTION AT 100,893 TONS, UP 2% FROM PREVIOUS ESTIMATE
• SEES ITS 2026 SUGARCANE PRODUCTION AT 2.18 MILLION TONS

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 11.42 Million Metric Tons In February – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 11.42 MILLION METRIC TNS IN FEBRUARY VERSUS 9.73 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.63 MILLION TNS IN FEBRUARY VERSUS 1.50 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 793,364 TNS IN FEBRUARY VERSUS 1.32 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR – ANEC

 

India lifts wheat stock limits as supplies rise

India has lifted limits on the amount of wheat stocks that traders, wholesalers and retailers can hold, the government said in a statement on Thursday, citing comfortable domestic supplies and easing prices.

The world’s second largest wheat producer imposed limits on the amount of wheat that traders, wholesalers and retailers could hold in May 2025 as part of efforts to curb hoarding and rein in rising prices.

Wheat inventories are higher than last year, indicating comfortable supplies, the statement said.

Traders, wholesalers and retailers will, however, be required to declare their stock positions every week, it added.

Last month, New Delhi allowed the export of 500,000 metric tons of wheat flour and related products, easing curbs imposed in 2022.

 

Russia’s early crop condition data signals good 2026 harvest

The share of Russian crops in normal condition as of February 5 stood at 97% compared to 87% in the same period of 2025, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Thursday, with analysts suggesting the data signaled a good harvest.

Extreme weather, especially in the bread basket southern regions, affected the harvest in 2025 in Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter.

“According to experts’ estimates, 97% of crops are currently in normal condition. These are very good results,” Patrushev said.

Sovecon’s consultancy head Andrei Sizov said there were worries in January about the cold spell that had hit some areas, but the cold snap did not reach the southern regions and temperatures were now rising.

“It can be said with confidence that only 3% of the crops are likely in poor condition. This is below the five-year average and significantly better than last year,” Sizov said.

Sizov added that heavy snowfalls across Russia implied that there will be enough moisture for winter crops when vegetation begins in spring.

Patrushev also told a government meeting that Russia’s 2025 grain crop stood at 142 million metric tons, including the crop from Russia-controlled territories of Ukraine. This figure included 93 million metric tons of wheat.

The 2025 grain harvest was the third largest in history, Patrushev said, a 9% increase compared to 2024 but below the 2023 historical record of 147 million tons.

Russia’s statistics agency Rosstat, which does not include the Russian-controlled territories into its figures, earlier reported a grain harvest at 138.8 million tons, suggesting that they harvested 3.2 million tons of grain.

 

Global Food-Price Index Fell in January, Led by Dairy: FAO

Global food prices declined in January, according to an index of food-commodity costs from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.

• The FAO food index fell 0.4% from a month earlier, marking a fifth consecutive decline
  • Remains at lowest since August 2024
• Grains index rose slightly
  • Ample wheat stocks offset weather-related concerns affecting dormant crops in Russia and the US
  • Rice index, meanwhile, rose 1.8%
• Dairy index fell 5%, led by lower cheese and butter prices amid ample supplies
• Vegetable oil index increased by 2.1%, fueled by an jump in world palm oil and sunflower oil prices
  • Though international quotations for rapeseed oil edged lower
• Meat index dropped 0.4%, led by declines in pork amid global supplies and subdued demand
• Sugar index declined by 1%, on expectations of increased supplies in the current season

 

US Beef Cow Inventory Seen Falling More in 2026: CattleFax

The US beef cow inventory is seen shrinking further in 2026, research firm CattleFax said at a presentation at the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association’s annual conference in Nashville.

The year is expected to see the smallest slaughter and production for the current cattle cycle, according to CattleFax forecasts.

• Ranchers have not calved enough heifers to rebuild herds yet, CattleFax analyst Kevin Good said in a presentation
  • NOTE: Herd sizes typically fluctuate in roughly decade-long cycles, but the depth and length of the current contraction has strained supplies and sent beef prices surging to records
  • The latest US Department of Agriculture tally as of Jan. 1 showed that the domestic herd remains near 75-year lows, with the population of beef replacement heifers up 1%
• Beef cow inventory is seen falling 285k head in 2026, with growth of 400k and 500k head in 2027 and 2028, respectively
• The calf crop this year should be as big as last year, suggesting that supplies will remain tight this year and next, Good said
  • That compares to steep drops in 2024 and 2025; calf crop is seen growing 500k head in 2027
• US steer and heifer slaughter seen dropping 600k head in 2026
• Industry will continue to lean on crossed beef-on-dairy calves for beef production
  • About 20% of animals going into slaughter in 2025 were either dairy or beef-on-dairy crosses, Good said
  • Continued halt to Mexican cattle imports are expected to keep placements on feedyards below prior year levels for the first half of 2026

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 189k tons in the week ending Jan. 31 from 568k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 66% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 68.3% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $24.66 per short ton, an increase of $0.32 from the previous week

 

USDA February Estimates of 2026 Farm Income

Following is the USDA’s projections of US farm sector financial indicators.

• Net farm income est. down 0.7% y/y to $153.4 billion
• Gross income seen up 0.5% y/y, while total expenses seen up by 1%
• Government direct aid to farmers seen up by 45.2% to $44.3 billion

 

 

 

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