Global Ag News For Feb 9.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Trump signs proclamation increasing Argentine beef imports

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday signed a proclamation to hike the country’s low-tariff imports of Argentine beef, though economists have said the attempt to lower costs for American consumers will likely have little impact on prices.

A White House official said in October that Trump would make such a move, evoking fury from the nation’s cattle ranchers.

Trump has faced pressure to address the issue of affordability, which helped propel Democratic candidates to several electoral victories in 2025.

U.S. beef prices set record highs last year, benefiting ranchers who largely supported Trump, due to strong consumer demand and declining cattle supplies.

Ranchers slashed the herd to its lowest level in 75 years as of January 1 following a persistent drought that burned up pastures used for grazing and hiked feeding costs, according to U.S. data.

Trump’s decision to raise the tariff rate quota on Argentine beef by 80,000 metric tons will let Argentina ship more of its beef to the U.S. at a lower rate of duty. The increase will apply only to lean beef trimmings, which are blended with domestic supplies to make hamburger meat, according to the proclamation.

“Instead of imports that sideline American ranchers, we should be focused on solutions that cut red tape, lower production costs, and support growing our cattle herd,” said Republican U.S. Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska, a major cattle-producing state.

Washington and Buenos Aires signed a broader new trade and investment agreement that will give preferential market access to U.S. goods in Argentina.

Economists have said increased U.S. imports of Argentine beef will likely be too small to significantly lower costs for grocery store shoppers, but the shipments could help improve margins for food companies.

The U.S. imported about 33,000 metric tons of Argentine beef in 2024, representing 2% of total imports, according to government data.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/4 in SRW, down 4 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 5 1/4; Soymeal down $4.60; Soyoil up 0.84.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 3/4 in SRW, down 9 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 48 1/4; Soymeal up $4.00; Soyoil up 2.79.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 10 1/2 in SRW, down 18 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans up 45 3/4; Soymeal up $5.40; Soyoil up 2.66.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 3.9% in SRW, up 2.2% in HRW, down 1.0% in HRS; Corn is down 2.7%; Soybeans up 7.6%; Soymeal up 1.4%; Soyoil up 16.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans up 14 yuan; Soymeal up 7; Soyoil up 14; Palm oil down 40; Corn down 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 6.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 6 ringgit (+0.14%) at 4160.

There were changes in registrations (-26 Oats). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 9 Corn; 301 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 6 were: SRW Wheat down 8,052 contracts, HRW Wheat down 6,401, Corn down 23,476, Soybeans up 9,436, Soymeal down 6,298, Soyoil up 5,133.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 09 FEBRUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: According to the latest forecasts, there is no risk of cold outbreak across the U.S. winter wheat areas until 23 February
• SOUTH AMERICA: Recent hailstorms and heavy rains caused flooding in northwest Pampas, but major crop regions were unaffected
• EUROPE: The latest weather models uphold the risk of short-term cold outbreak in Central Europe in mid-February, though the confidence is still low
• EUROPE: Southwest Europe will experience persistent rainfall exceeding 100 mm/10 days, with local flooding expected in France, Portugal, and Spain
• TROPICS/AUSTRALIA: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is making landfall in Western Australia and may bring flooding to the Midlands as a post-tropical system

 

A MARCH TOWARDS EL NIÑO EXPECTED THIS SUMMER, BUT A MAJOR EVENT IS UNLIKELY

What to Watch:

• The initial forecast for June-August indicates a positive anomaly in the ENSO region, but a pronounced El Niño phase remains less probable
• Drought risks this summer could be elevated for corn and soybean in U.S. Midwest, spring crops in the Black Sea area, and for coffee/sugarcane in Vietnam/Thailand
• A favorable summer might be in store for grain crops in E.U., China and Kazakhstan, as well as for softs in Africa

 

Brazil: Heavy rain has been falling in central Brazil lately, which has been favorable for the last remaining filling soybeans, but has been a little troublesome for transport and fieldwork as producers switch from soybeans to safrinha corn. Heavier rain continues this week but will thin out this weekend. The country still needs these showers to produce a lot of rain since most of the country is behind and soil moisture is rated as low in many areas for this time of year.

Argentina: It has been very dry for much of the country, but is getting more active in February. Though it was quiet over the past weekend, several rounds of showers are forecast to move through the country this week. The focus is on central and northern areas while drier areas in the south will have less precipitation. However, the active weather situation is forecast to continue next week as well. Though the trend has been for worsening soil moisture and crop conditions over the last six weeks or so, some improvements will be made. That is too late for some of the corn and soybean crops that are more advanced, though.

Northern Plains: Warm air flooded the region over the weekend and is forecast to continue into next week to some degree. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation this week, but nothing that looks particularly heavy. Snow cover is basically gone except in the far northeast and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms starting next week. The region will take all the precipitation it can get, even if it comes as snow.

Central/Southern Plains: Above-normal temperatures are forecast to continue through next week. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for a while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. However, the pattern is becoming more active and there are at least some chances for precipitation over the next couple of weeks. Models are mixed on the impact, but will likely be sporadic and not widespread. Some areas may see favorable precipitation while others are missed.

Midwest: A clipper brought a burst of arctic cold to eastern areas over the weekend while it was warmer in the west. The warmer air will spread east this week and the threat for arctic cold has ended for a while. However, the weather pattern will become more active and a few systems this week could produce scattered showers. The chance for bigger storms is elevated as well, but may have to wait until next week.

Delta: Rising temperatures are helping to break ice up on the rivers and melt the remaining snow and ice in the Midwest, that will eventually make it through the Mississippi River system as well. But water levels are low and will need a more active weather pattern to bring them up permanently. That will start this week with a few systems moving through with scattered showers. Some heavier rain will be possible in the Delta this weekend. Additional systems are in the forecast next week as well.

Europe: Europe has been in an active weather pattern for a long time and the frequent precipitation has favored winter wheat in almost all areas of the continent. The active weather pattern continues through next week. The situation is very favorable for winter crops as well as prepping soils for spring crops, a condition that extends south into northern Africa for the first time in years as well.

Black Sea: Very cold air recently has brought thoughts of winterkill on winter wheat. Another brief cold shot will move through Monday and Tuesday, but warmer temperatures will spread through afterward. Systems have become more frequent and are easing some of the precipitation deficits in the region as well as providing more protective snow cover. More systems are forecast to bring meaningful precipitation for this weekend and next week. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and the coming precipitation should be helpful before the wheat awakens from dormancy in another month or two.

 

The player sheet for 2/6 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 14,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 4,000 soyoil.

 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is February 10.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 255,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is February 11.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is February 11.

 

 

 

TODAY

Brazil’s soy harvest speeds up to near 17%, Patria AgroNegocios says

Farmers in Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer, have harvested 16.55% of the area planted with soy for the 2025/26 season, above the 9.84% harvested this time last year, consultancy firm Patria AgroNegocios said on Friday.

• Patria’s report did not say why the harvest was faster than last year, but noted that yields are favorable across most of the country.
• It added that rains were limiting progress in the central-northern region, and that Parana state was also seeing a slower harvest compared to recent years.

 

Brazil 2025/26 Soy Harvest Sales at 33.9% as of Feb. 6: Safras

Compares with 42.4% a year before and with 5-year average of 45.1%, consulting firm Safras & Mercado says in emailed report.

• In the previous report, with data from Jan. 9, the figure was 30.3%
• Considering an estimated harvest of 179.277 million tons, the total amount of soybeans already traded is 59.856 million tons: Safras

 

Brazil January Corn and Soybean Exports by Country: MDIC

Brazil’s Trade Ministry updates its website with exports by country of destination for January.

• Jan. soybean shipments to China rose by 35% vs the same period last year
• Corn shipments to China totaled 194k tons, a 29% y/y increase

 

Canada Wheat Stocks on Dec. 31 Rose 5.9% From Year Ago

Stocks of Canadian wheat as of Dec. 31 rose to 27.5m tons vs. 25.98m in the same period last year, according to Statistics Canada.

• Durum wheat rose to 5.35m tons vs. 4.52m in prior year
• Canola rose to 15.62m tons vs 13.23m in the same period last year

 

Brazilian soy exports to soar through February despite slow sales by farmers, analysts say

• Brazil’s soy exports could reach 14 million metric tons for January-February, Anec data shows
• Farmers’ sales lag due to strong currency, high freight costs, large supply
• Record 180-million-ton harvest expected, 10 million more than last season

Sales by Brazilian farmers of the new soybean crop have lagged previous years, though that will not prevent the world’s largest producer and exporter of the oilseed from shipping high volumes through February, according to analysts and shipping data.

Preliminary data based on shipping schedules from grain exporter group Anec suggest Brazil’s soybean exports could reach 14 million metric tons from January through February.

Sales of Brazil’s soy harvest by farmers to companies that process or export the crop, however, are estimated between 34% and 38% of the total expected crop, below historical levels, driven by a stronger local currency, high freight costs, and large supply, which is weighing on Chicago futures prices.

Brazil’s harvesting for the 2025/26 marketing year is well under way in most states.

Consultancy Safras & Mercado estimates sales of the crop at 33.9%, 10 percentage points below the historical average. Hedgepoint Global Markets puts the figure at 35%, five points off last year. Celeres projects sales commitments for 38% of the new soy crop, five points below average.

Brazil is expected to harvest a record-high 180 million tons of soy, about 10 million tons more than last season.

 

Brazil’s Inpasa ramps up exports of dried distillers grains to China

Brazilian corn ethanol producer Inpasa will quickly ramp up exports of dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) to China this year, Gustavo Mariano Oliveira, the company’s vice president of trading, said on Friday.

Inpasa produces some 3.3 million metric tons annually of DDGS, a corn ethanol byproduct used in animal feed. The company said on Tuesday it would soon make its first shipment to China.

The company already has contracts to export an additional 250,000 tons of DDGS to China this year and could secure total shipments of up to 1.5 million tons in 2026, Oliveira said in an interview, adding that China could account for up to half of all DDGS exports in short order.

“Without a doubt, China should be the main player in a very short time, perhaps accounting for 40% to 50% of our exports,” Oliveira said.

Corn ethanol production has exploded in Brazil, which had long been dominated by sugarcane biofuels. The growth has been aided by sales of DDGS, which have found ready customers in beef and other meat industries in Brazil and abroad.

Strained relations between top commodity buyer China and the U.S. have also created opportunities for Brazilian producers. Last year, China authorized imports of Brazilian sorghum at a time when U.S. exports to the Asian nation fell.

“An opportunity arose from the situation last year,” Oliveira said. “It’s a great opportunity, and we see this door that has been opened as one that should remain open in the coming years.”

China is far from the only destination open to Brazil’s DDGS exports, he said.

“We have been seeing more demand from Europe,” Oliveira said. Spain is now the biggest buyer of Inpasa’s DDGS, but more countries are showing interest, he said.

“We’ve seen a growing appetite from Italy for our product, and from some other countries that we’ll likely open markets with later this year,” he said.

 

“A blessing”: Hopeful Argentine farmers greet rain with relief, but still worried about risks to harvest

• Argentina was on track for record corn harvest, but crops deteriorating due to high temperatures, low rainfall
• Scattered rains in recent days bring reilief, but rainfall has been uneven across country
• “Next week is crucial”, farmers and experts say crops are still at risk

Juan Solari threads his way between rows of corn, brushing past yellowing leaves and undersized ears that bear the marks of January’s heat and lack of rain in Chivilcoy, a normally fertile farming area in Argentina’s Pampas plains.

Argentina, one of the world’s top food exporters, had been on track for a record corn harvest in the 2025/26 season, but unusually high January temperatures, topping 35 degrees Celsius in some areas, combined with low rainfall, strained crops across much of the country’s agricultural heartland.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on Thursday trimmed its estimate for Argentina’s grain output to 57 million metric tons, down from a previous forecast of 58 million metric tons. The exchange has not yet published an updated outlook for the soybean crop.

Rains on Wednesday and Thursday – while far from enough to fully quench scorched crops – provided a welcome respite for farmers. With the light showers bringing some relief to his fields, Solari is hopeful there will be more.

“It’s a blessing,” Solari said as a drizzle settled over the Emidelia Solari ranch, where he is a partner and manager. “It changes expectations.”

The ranch, which produces soybeans and corn near Chivilcoy, about 160 kilometers (100 miles) from Buenos Aires, has received 25 millimeters of rain since Wednesday — less than he had hoped for.

“The crops that were planted early, corn and soybeans, started off very well, but when January arrived, which is a fairly dry month, they were affected,” Solari said, with the smell of damp earth hanging in the air.

“Now the game is February: if the rains are consistent, we can maintain very good potential,” he added.

Soybean planting for the 2025/26 cycle has just finished in Argentina, while the corn harvest has begun, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

In January, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated Argentina’s corn crop at 53 million tons and its soybean harvest at 48.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season.

“The rain is a balm, it slows the current deterioration, but it’s not a definitive solution,” said German Heinzenknecht, a climate analyst at Applied Climatology Consulting (CCA). “The harvest is still at risk, it’s in a critical situation and will depend heavily on what happens.”

Argentina’s central farming belt would need more than 50 millimeters of rainfall to begin to recover, something that could start next week, according to Heinzenknecht.

 

APK-Inform cuts Ukraine’s 2025/26 grain export forecast by 10.4% due to slow exports

Ukraine’s APK-Inform agriculture consultancy has sharply cut its forecast for Ukrainian grain exports in the 2025/26 July-June season to 40.48 million metric tons from 45.18 million tons a month earlier due to slow exports, it said on Sunday.

Ukraine is a global major grain grower and exporter.

The consultancy revised down Ukraine’s export outlook for wheat to 14.5 million tons from 16.7 million tons, for corn to 23.5 million tons from 25.5 million tons and for barley to 2.0 million tons from 2.5 million tons.

It also sharply increased the 2025/26 ending grain stocks outlook to 11.5 million tons from 6.8 million tons expected a month earlier, and the volume could include 4 million tons of wheat, 4.3 million tons of corn and more than 2 million tons of barley.

APK-Inform said the changes in forecast were made due to “low export rates as a result of constant shelling by Russian forces of Ukraine’s port and energy infrastructure”.

Ukrainian officials and producers have said that attacks on infrastructure, delays in harvesting and unfavourable market conditions had slowed grain exports from Ukraine.

According to the economy ministry, Ukraine has exported 19.38 million tons of grain so far in the 2025/26 season versus 26.45 million tons in the same period in 2024/25.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Price drops are interrupted in some regions in Brazil

Cepea, 6 – The downward trend for corn prices has been interrupted in some areas surveyed by Cepea this week. Some producers are firm about quotations. Moreover, the soy harvesting has been gaining pace, which reduces the availability of freight for corn, a scenario that also limits price decreases.

Still, other sellers end up accepting lower values due to the need to make cash flow and/or open room in warehouses.

Most purchasers, in turn, are away from closing trades, expecting higher supply as crop activities progress.

From January 29 to February 5, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices rose 0.8%, to close at BRL 66.49 per 60-kg bag on Feb. 5. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same comparison, corn values dropped 1.2% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 2.6% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Prices stabilize in Brazil

Cepea, 6 – Soybean quotations are stable in early February. On one hand, increases of prices abroad and of dollar values and the firm international demand for the Brazilian soy sustain quotations. On the other, the significant decrease of export premiums limits the transference of price rises abroad to the domestic market.

Abroad, price increases were linked to the recent meeting between the presidents of the United States and China, during which China reaffirmed its commitment to boost purchases of the product from the U.S. this season and the next.

In spite of increases abroad, the Brazilian market was influenced by a correction of export premiums, which dropped significantly over the last days, limiting price rises in the domestic market.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) rose 0.2% from Jan. 29 to Feb. 5, to close at BRL 119.85 per 60-kg bag on Feb. 5. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) increased 0.3% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 125.61 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices moved up 0.3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

 

India’s edible oil output likely at 9.6 mn ton in 2025-26; import at about 16.7 mn ton: IVPA

India’s edible oil production is estimated at 9.6 million tonnes in 2025-26 marketing year, and it will have to import around 16.7 million tonnes of cooking oils to meet domestic demand, according to industry body IVPA.

India imports soyabean oil mainly from Argentina and Brazil, while the country imports palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia. Of the total domestic demand, the country has to import about 60 per cent of the quantity.

Addressing a conference in Kuala Lumpur, Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association (IVPA) President Sudhakar Desai noted that “global edible oil markets have entered a phase of structural volatility, driven by trade realignments, biofuel mandates and supply rigidity”.

In a statement on Monday, Desai, who is also the CEO of Emami Agrotech Ltd, said the geopolitical restructuring has altered global trade corridors.

Speaking on a topic ‘Navigating Structural Shifts in Global Edible Oils: Implications for India’, he said, “Small adjustments in duties, mandates or trade flows are now producing disproportionate price swings across the supply chain”.

India’s domestic edible oil production is estimated at 9.6 million tonnes in 2025-26 oil year (October-September), covering only about 40 per cent of Indian needs. This means dependence on imports of around 16.7 million tonnes, Desai forecast.

According to Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), India imported 16 million tonnes of edible oils for nearly Rs 1.61 lakh crore during the 2024-25 marketing year ended October.

In 2025-26, Desai said the total imports are expected to comprise 8-8.5 million tonnes of palm oil, 5-5.5 million tonnes of soyabean oil, 2.8-3 million tonnes of sunflower oil, and around 2 lakh tonnes of other oils, including zero-duty imports routed through Nepal.

“India’s import basket remains highly sensitive to inter-oil price differentials, particularly between palm and soybean oil. A USD 50-60 per tonne shift in spreads is sufficient to reallocate volumes at scale, highlighting the absence of stickiness at the bulk oil level,” he said.

Palm oil imports have declined from over 10 million tonnes in 2021-22 to around 8 million tonnes.

Refining margins remain under pressure, constraining demand momentum, Desai said.

On trade policy, Desai said recently concluded FTAs and bilateral arrangements with partners such as the US, EU, Australia, UAE and SAFTA members have become integral to market pricing and sourcing decisions.

“These agreements now directly influence landed cost structures, arbitrage flows and refining economics,” he said.

The IVPA is a five-decade-old trade body representing India’s edible oil and oilseed value chain. PTI MJH  MJH

 

India Partially Opens $580 Billion Agri Sector to Secure US Deal

India has proposed opening up parts of its agriculture industry to cheaper imports from the US, a move that may lower food and feed costs but intensify pressure on some domestic farmers.

The world’s most populous nation agreed to cut or eliminate import duties on US food and agricultural products, including distillers dried grains, red sorghum for animal feed, soybean oil, tree nuts, and fresh and processed fruit, according to a joint statement on the framework for an interim trade deal. India also agreed to address long-standing non-tariff barriers to the trade in US food and agricultural products.

This marks the broadest lowering of trade barriers in the politically sensitive agriculture sector — accounting for about a fifth of India’s GDP — for US producers under a push to deepen trade ties. However, President Donald Trump’s Monday announcement of reducing tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% without many details had sparked wide concerns that the country will open up the agriculture sector where millions of small farmers remain protected from external competition.

Samyukt Kisan Morcha, an agricultural group, had vowed to organize protests nationwide over the coming days, including a possible strike on Feb. 12. Mohini Mishra, general secretary of Bharatiya Kisan Sangh, a separate farmers’ group that is close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ideological parent organization Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, said it won’t allow “US farmers to enter India.”

“Agricultural output from India will now be able to go to the US on zero duties,” said India’s Trade Minister Piyush Goyal at a media briefing Saturday. “We have not given any concessions or done anything that will hurt the farmers,” he said, referring to the joint statement.

Goyal, who clarified that India has not provided any concessions on import of genetically modified crops from the US, said agriculture products such as dairy, poultry and soybean among others have been kept out of the negotiations for the interim deal.

Still, the import of DDGS — mostly made from US GM corn — effectively allows genetically modified byproduct into the market. GM soybean oil imports from the US and South America are already permitted, underscoring the growing role of transgenic crops in India’s food and feed supply. To be sure, India does not allow production or import of GM food crops.

Bloomberg had earlier reported that India was considering allowing genetically modified animal-feed imports from the US.

In particular, lower duty on soybean oil is expected to make US supplies more competitive, compared with shipments from South America and it will also pressure palm oil prices, said Aashish Acharya, vice president at Patanjali Foods Ltd., one of India’s top vegetable oil buyers.

India, the world’s biggest importer of palm, soybean and sunflower oil, buys around 16 million tons of seed oil annually, mostly from producers in Southeast Asia and South America.

At the same time, cheaper imports of DDGS and red sorghum are likely to benefit poultry producers by reducing feed costs, which account for the bulk of production expenses, said Suresh Chitturi, managing director of Srinivasa Farms Pvt., adding that lower input prices could support margins and also help moderate meat and egg prices for Indian consumers.

Indian agriculture space was estimated to be worth $580 billion to $650 billion, according to a June report by McKinsey & Co., which said that the sector could grow to $1.4 trillion by 2035.

 

South Africa launches local foot-and-mouth vaccine as infections spread

South Africa on Friday announced its first foot-and-mouth vaccine in 20 years as it seeks to boost local production of inoculation doses to fight the country’s worst outbreak of the disease in many years.

Foot-and-mouth is a highly contagious viral disease that mainly affects cattle, causing painful blisters in the mouth and on hooves. Although it is not often fatal, especially among adult cattle, it affects livestock’s productivity.

Developed by the government’s Agricultural Research Council (ARC), the vaccine will be part of South Africa’s bid to vaccinate 80% of its national herd of about 12 million cattle, 7.2 million of which are on commercial farms.

The ARC will supply 20,000 vaccine doses per week from March 2026, raising its output to 200,000 doses per week from 2027, the Agriculture Ministry said in a statement.

South Africa is having to import most of its foot-and-mouth vaccines, including from Botswana, Argentina and Turkey, due to the limited capacity of its underfunded state-owned manufacturing entities.

“What today means is that when we are able to manufacture at scale and at full production, this vaccine will ensure South Africa’s vaccine sovereignty when dealing with foot-and-mouth disease,” Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen said during a media briefing.

The government has faced criticism from livestock farmers who say they are suffering heavy losses over its handling of the outbreak.

Two farmer groups, the Southern African Agri Initiative and Free State Agriculture, have threatened legal action against the government, saying its response has been “fragmented, slow and structurally incapable of matching the scale and pace of the outbreak”.

 

RAINS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH MID-FEBRUARY, THOUGH REGIONAL TRENDS WILL BE VOLATILE IN THE DAYS AHEAD

• Weather Anomaly Severity: Moderate (regional heat/dryness risks)
• Crops impacted: corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar
• Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op
• Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC AIFS (warmer/drier than EC Ens for Argentina and Southern Brazil)
• Forecast confidence: Low throughout the period, due to model disagreement and misalignment with teleconnection climate forcing trends.
• Model Change (from previous update): Wetter most areas, except drier in Southeast Brazil.

Significant weather anomalies and crop impact:

Argentina/Paraguay

• Cool temperatures (2-5 °C below normal) will expand northward from the Argentina Pampas through the northern areas of the country throughout the 15-day forecast, while Paraguay will remain 1-3 °C warmer than normal.
• Most of Argentina will be 25-125 mm (~1-5 in) wetter than normal through the next 15 days, while Paraguay will be 25-50 mm (~1-2 in) drier than normal.
• Flooding risks will be localized in the northwest regions of Argentina (centered on Tucuman).
• Cool/wet Argentina weather ahead will be very favorable for corn/soybeans, while Paraguay crops will start to be stressed by warm/dry conditions through mid-month.
• Warmth/dryness is likely to expand southward across Argentina in late February.

Brazil

• Moderate heat risks (temperatures 2-4 °C above normal) will expand across Brazil from south to north during the 6-15 day forecast after a short-term mild stretch.
• Most of Brazil will be 25-75 mm (~1-3 in) wetter than normal through the next 15 days, except from a dry zone (25-50 mm below normal) from Sao Paulo westward through Mato Grosso do Sul.
• There is no end in sight to cool/wet weather over most of the country into late February, though Southern Brazil may trend drier.
• Despite the building heat risks in the outlook, most Brazil crops will benefit from near to above normal rainfall.

 

 

 

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