Global Ag News For Jan 12.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Ireland says China has reopened its market to Irish beef, dropping 2024 ban

China has reopened its market to Irish beef imports, dropping a 2024 suspension that followed the discovery of a case of mad cow disease, Ireland’s prime minister Micheál Martin said in a statement on Monday.

“The confirmation today that the Chinese market will reopen for Irish beef is a very important and positive development in our bilateral agrifood trade with China,” Martin said in a statement following his visit to China last week during which he met Chinese President Xi Jinping.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 3/4 in SRW, up 10 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil up 0.55.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 11 1/4 in SRW, up 17 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 3 3/4; Soybeans up 4 1/4; Soymeal up $3.70; Soyoil up 0.35.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 18 in SRW, up 25 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/4; Soybeans up 20; Soymeal up $4.40; Soyoil up 1.68.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans down 31 yuan; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 2; Palm oil up 14; Corn up 13 — Malaysian Palm is up 54.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 54 ringgit (+1.34%) at 4090.

There were changes in registrations (-50 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 563 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 204 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 9 were: SRW Wheat up 3,792 contracts, HRW Wheat down 463, Corn down 2,028, Soybeans up 10,054, Soymeal down 246, Soyoil down 1,159.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 12 JANUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Above-normal temperatures are expected across the U.S. over the next 5 days. For days 6–15, warmth will dominate the West and Southern Plains, while colder conditions settle over the Midwest and Northeast; winter wheat areas stay somewhat wet but with below-normal precipitation.
• SOUTH AMERICA: The Pampas will stay cooler with below-normal rainfall across corn and soybean belts, while Brazil faces dry weather and near-normal to warmer temperatures, with flood risks limited to the Southeast. Dry conditions remain a concern for both Brazil and the Pampas.
• EUROPE: Above-normal temperatures are expected across Central Europe over the next 5 days, followed by cold spells in the 6–15-day outlook. Dry conditions will prevail across most of Europe, with wet spells confined to the far East/South.
• ASIA: Southeast Asia will see mostly near-normal to cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, with cold risks in the central/north China. Above-normal precipitation is expected in the south India, central/north China, and central Japan.
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecast indicates an active phase (6-7), which is expected to support increased weather activity across South America over the next 15 days.

 

RAINS WILL IMPROVE OVER MOST SOUTH AMERICA CROP REGIONS, THOUGH SOME FLOODING RISKS ARE EVIDENT IN BRAZIL

What to Watch:

• Argentina will trend cooler/wetter into late January in a very positive outlook for corn/soybeans
• Brazil rains will trend near or above normal in most areas through the next couple weeks, including the potential for flooding in the Southeast region
• Cool and wet conditions are in store for Paraguay over the next 1-2 weeks in a positive outlook for corn/soybeans

 

Brazil: A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend with widespread showers and will continue over south-central areas with needed rain the next couple of days. Models are also increasing rainfall coverage across the rest of central Brazil this week, which may be beneficial for filling soybeans if it comes true. Recent heat and limited showers may have been somewhat stressful in some areas, but the coming rain is likely to relieve much of that stress.

Argentina: A front moved out of northern areas this weekend, which are in fairly good shape for corn and soybeans. Southern and central areas have been much drier and are seeing soil moisture and crop conditions falling. A front will bring some isolated showers to southern areas on Tuesday and another will sweep through the country on Thursday and Friday. rainfall amounts may be impressive for a couple of lucky locations, but are more likely to occur over the north yet again. Crop conditions are forecast to continue falling, which has been planned for by many producers that understand the risk for dryness in January. There will be some effect, however.

Northern Plains: A brief burst of some colder air moved through the region over the weekend, but was quickly replaced by some significant warmth. Several days of warmth are on tap before the pattern collapses and turns to a colder one this weekend and especially next week with more clippers bringing down Canadian air.

Central/Southern Plains: A band of snow fell across the southwestern Plains on Friday and protected some of the winter wheat from cold over the weekend. Above-normal temperatures this week should help to melt the snow. But eventually some colder air is likely to move down into the region and threaten more of the winter wheat as it has abnormally low cold hardiness after several weeks of relative warmth. The pattern may be a bit more threatening by the end of next week.

Midwest: A system brought widespread rain changing to snow over the weekend, which was heavier across some areas of Michigan and included some lake-effect. Several clippers will move through this week with variable temperatures and limited showers. We may have to watch for a bigger system and stronger burst of cold air to move through by the end of next week.

Delta: Water levels along the Mississippi River are getting a boost from a system that brought showers late last week, but are still low and not a long-term solution to the low water levels. Clipper systems moving through this week are not likely to provide a meaningful boost to levels either.

Europe: Soil moisture is still favorable across most of the continent for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. The storm track remains active but will favor the west and north. Some areas in the south and southeast may dry out a bit, but are still in good shape.

Black Sea: Cold air moved into Ukraine over the weekend and will migrate to western Russia this week. Ukraine had better snow coverage, but that is more limited farther east, which may need to worry about winterkill damage as the cold air sticks around through next week. Some limited showers will fall early this week, but will dry out with time. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

 

The player sheet for 1/9 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,500 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Friday, or at least 600,000 metric tons, for shipment in April and May, capping an active week of buying by the world’s top importer, three traders with knowledge of the deals said.
• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 198,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) bought an estimated 204,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 210,000 tons on Friday, European traders said.
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) bought an additional 67,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in private deal on Friday following an earlier purchase on Friday of around 204,000 tons in an international tender, European traders said.
• CORN SALE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Friday without issuing an international tender, European traders said.
• FEED WHEAT SALE: The TFMA group of animal feed importers in Thailand is believed to have purchased about 120,000 metric tons animal feed wheat in a tender on Wednesday, European traders said on Friday.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Busan section of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased around 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Friday without an international tender being issued, European traders said on Monday.
• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Friday without an international tender being issued, European traders said on Monday.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase and import about 210,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is January 15.
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) bought an estimated 120,000 metric tons of animal feed soymeal in an international tender on Friday, European traders said. The soymeal was expected to be sourced optionally from the United States, China or South America.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: Iranian firm Jahad Sabz Company issued a tender to purchase 10,000 tons of rice sourced from Pakistan, according to a copy of the tender sent to European traders. The deadline for submission of price offers was December 30.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 56,944 tons of rice to be sourced from China, European traders said. The deadline for price offers was December 30.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for price offers is January 13.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is January 14.

 

 

 

TODAY

China buys at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans for April-May shipment, traders say

China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Friday, or at least 600,000 metric tons, for shipment in April and May, capping an active week of buying by the world’s top importer, three traders with knowledge of the deals said.

At least eight of the cargoes booked on Friday were slated for shipment from U.S. Gulf Coast export terminals, with the remainder due to ship from the Pacific Northwest, they said.

Friday’s sales brought Beijing closer to fulfilling a commitment to buy 12 million tons of the latest U.S. soybean harvest by the end of February after Sinograin purchased about 10 cargoes of U.S. soy on Monday.

Chinese importers booked smaller daily volumes later in the week, all of which were for shipment in March or later during the peak export season for rival supplier Brazil, traders said.

China shunned U.S. soybeans for months amid tensions with Washington over U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs before resuming purchases in late October. Beijing’s total purchases were now likely near 10 million tons or more, traders and analysts said.

Chinese state-owned traders have been buying U.S. soybeans despite cheaper supplies often available from Brazil, where farmers are beginning to gather what is expected to be their largest harvest ever, and despite a domestic supply glut.

China’s National Grain Trade Center said Sinograin will auction 1.1 million metric tons of imported soybeans on January 13, its first sale of the year and the fourth since last month, as the state stockpiler works to make room for arriving U.S. shipments.

 

China Restarts Soybean Auctions as It Continues to Buy From US

China is restarting soybean auctions — after a three-week pause — in an apparent attempt to clear storage space as it keeps buying from the US following the trade truce between the two countries.

Sinograin will put 1.13 million tons of soybeans up for sale on Tuesday, according to a statement published on the website of the National Grain Trade Center late Friday. The state-run grain stockpiler held several auctions in December, the first such sales since Beijing and Washington reached an agreement at a meeting in South Korea in late October.

China has stepped up purchases of American soybeans, and committed to buy at least 12 million tons by the end of February, according to officials in Washington. State firms returned to buying from the US from late October, and have booked a flurry of cargoes since then, putting the world’s biggest importer on track to meet the apparent target.

The unusually large offer on Tuesday comes after feed producers and crushers secured about 900,000 tons of soybeans in the past three auction rounds, out of a total of nearly 1.58 million tons put up for sale, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from China-based commodities consultancy Mysteel.

 

US CROP EXPORTS: 198,000 Tons of Soybeans to Unknown Buyers

The US Department of Agriculture on Friday announces export sales activity on its website:

• The sale is for the 2025-26 marketing year

 

USDA may trim US soy export outlook in key crop reports, analysts say

Grain analysts expect the U.S. Department of Agriculture may trim what some believe were overly optimistic estimates for soybean export demand in the current crop year, especially given lower sales to China, when it releases closely watched crop reports on Monday.

They also expect lower estimates for U.S. corn and soybean harvests, in part reflecting dry autumn weather, although global supplies are expected to remain plentiful with large South American harvests imminent.

The monthly report’s view of demand for U.S. grains will get particular scrutiny as farmers grapple with low prices and a hit to exports – especially for soybeans – from global tariff wars, which compelled the Trump administration to announce a $12 billion aid program for growers.

“The day of reckoning is coming for USDA to have to reflect lower soybean exports,” said Randy Mittelstaedt, an analyst with brokerage R.J. O’Brien, a StoneX company.

The USDA will release several major reports in its biggest data dump of the year on Monday at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT), including a monthly world supply/demand report, a U.S. crop production report, a quarterly rundown of U.S. grain stockpiles and a winter wheat seedings report.

 

Brazil farmers harvest 0.53% of 2025/26 soybean area, says Patria AgroNegocios

Brazilian farmers have harvested 0.53% of the country’s expected 2025/2026 soybean area, compared to 0.05% at this time last year, consultancy firm Patria AgroNegocios said on Friday.

The five-year average for the period is estimated at 0.39%, according to Patria.

Mato Grosso state, Brazil’s largest soy producer, kicked off harvesting in the country with a higher pace than recent years’ average, but below 2024, Patria said.

“In other Brazilian regions, harvesting is still in its early stages and concentrated in irrigated areas,” it added.

 

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks breach 3-million-metric-ton level on output surge

• Palm oil stocks rise 7.58% m/m to 3.05 million tons
• Dec output falls 5.46% m/m to 1.83 million tons
• Exports rise 8.52% m/m to 1.32 million tons
• Annual output tops 20 million tons for the first time

Malaysia’s palm oil inventories surged in December to a near seven-year high, breaching the psychologically important 3 million-metric-ton threshold, as the strongest monthly output in eight years eclipsed only a modest rebound in exports.

Rising inventories in the world’s second-biggest producer of the tropical oil could weigh on benchmark Malaysian futures, which are trading near a six-month low.

Palm oil stocks surged 7.58% from a month ago to 3.05 million metric tons in December, hitting their highest level since February 2019, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed on Monday.

Crude palm oil production was down 5.46% from a month earlier to 1.83 million tons, but was still the highest output for December in eight years.

Higher-than-expected output in December helped to lift Malaysia’s 2025 palm oil production by 4.9% from a year earlier to a record 20.28 million tons. Reuters was the first to report in November that output was set to surpass 20 million tons.

Palm oil exports rose 8.52% to 1.32 million tons in December, reversing a decline the previous month, the MPOB data showed.

Despite the December increase, annual exports fell 9.6% as palm oil was priced higher than rival soyoil and sunflower oil during the first half of 2025.

A Reuters survey had forecast inventories at 2.97 million tons, with output seen at 1.76 million tons and exports at 1.25 million tons.

Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose in the first 10 days of January. But shipments may struggle in the second half of the month as Indonesian sellers aggressively market supplies ahead of an expected increase in export levies, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.

Indonesia will likely increase its palm oil export levy to support the country’s biodiesel mandate, energy ministry official Eniya Listiani Dewi told reporters on Thursday.

Malaysia’s production and inventories have peaked, and both should start declining from January, with a significant drop likely in February, a New Delhi-based dealer at a global trade house said.

 

China Raises 2025-26 Corn Output Estimate to Another Record High

China has again increased its corn output estimate for 2025/26 to a record on higher acreage and yield, according to a monthly report by the agriculture ministry.

• Corn output in the new marketing year is seen at 301.24 million tons, up 2.1% from a year ago, the ministry says in the China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report
• The new forecast tops the earlier record estimate of 300 million tons made in November and December
• The fresh outlook is based on latest data from the national statistics bureau, the ministry says
• China has also slightly raised its soybean output estimate for 2025/26 to 20.91 million tons, up 1.3% higher from a year earlier
• Corn and soybean import and consumption estimates for 2025/26 are unchanged

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Harvesting starts in Brazil; liquidity remains low

Cepea, 9 – Soybean harvesting for the 2025/26 crop started last week in the north of Mato Grosso and west of Paraná, with expectations of good yields. Weather conditions are favorable in the main producing regions, reinforcing optimism for a record crop. Still, liquidity in the domestic market has been low, as producers remain away from spot sales, pressuring prices early in 2026.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) dropped 5.6% from Dec. 30 to Jan. 8, to close at BRL 128.00 per 60-kg bag on Jan. 8. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) decreased 4.5% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 134.61 per 60-kg bag.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices moved down 4.7% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 2.7% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers). Current values are below those observed last year, in real terms.

On the other hand, firm international demand for Brazilian soybeans and uncertainties linked to global conflicts have kept producers away from the spot market, supporting export premiums in Brazil.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Harvesting starts in Rio Grande do Sul; prices continue to drop

Cepea, 9 – Corn prices started 2026 on a downward trend in the Brazilian market, as most buyers have prioritized inventories traded earlier. Purchasers are also betting on higher supply with the start of the summer crop harvest, which has begun in some regions of Rio Grande do Sul.

In addition, current ending stocks are estimated at around 14 million tons, well above the 1.88 million tons in early 2025.

Sellers, in turn, have remained away from spot sales, focusing on harvesting and deliveries. This scenario has limited price declines.

From Dec. 30 to Jan. 8, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices dropped 0.8%, to close at BRL 68.94 per 60-kg bag on Jan. 8. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same comparison, corn values rose 0.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and fell 0.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

 

Bullish View on Palm Oil Dialed Back as Supply Builds Up: Mistry

Veteran trader Dorab Mistry has dropped his bullish outlook on palm oil following higher-than-expected production and stockpiles.

• Price outlook for 2026 is “flat until some new bullish factor emerges,” while supplies look comfortable, Mistry, a director at Godrej International Ltd., says in remarks prepared for an industry conference in Karachi on Saturday
• Disappointing US biofuel program, the wide differential between palm oil and gas oil prices, as well as China’s exports of soy oil to India are among reasons behind the view change
  • There’s been little follow-up to the Trump administration’s announcement for a big increase in US biofuel mandate and the removal of incentives for foreign feedstock
• NOTE: Mistry predicted in November that palm oil prices might surge to a three-year high of 5,500 ringgit a ton by 1Q if global supplies are squeezed by rising use in biofuels and if top grower Indonesia continues to seize plantations
• Benchmark futures in Kuala Lumpur traded at around 4,073 ringgit/ton on Friday, little changed from the start of the year
• Sees Malaysian output exceeding 20m tons for 2025; stockpiles may rise to above 3m tons versus earlier estimates of around 2m tons
• Global palm oil output may climb by 1.5m tons in 2025-26 compared with a year ago

 

Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest at 58.8 million tons so far, ministry says

Ukrainian farmers had threshed about 58.8 million metric tons of grain from 95.5% of the sown area for 2025 as of January 9, the economy ministry said on Monday.

The ministry gave no comparative data.

Ukraine aimed to harvest about 60 million tons of grain in 2025, officials have said, against 56 million tons in 2024.

 

Analyst APK-Inform lifts Ukraine 2025/26 grain harvest, export forecast

Analyst APK-Inform has raised its forecast for Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest to 61.5 million metric tons from a previous estimate of 60.6 million tons due to higher-than-expected corn output, the consultancy said on Monday.

It also increased the 2025/26 grain export outlook to 45.2 million tons from 44.2 million tons, but noted logistical difficulties caused by Russian attacks on ports might have a negative impact on Ukrainian grain exports in the short term.

 

Belgium to cull 55,000 chickens following bird flu outbreak

Belgium will cull around 55,000 chickens after detecting an outbreak of the highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu in a western province of the country near its border with France, the federal food safety agency, AFSCA, said on Friday.

A large part of the protection and surveillance zones established in connection with the outbreak overlaps with existing zones created after an outbreak last month and are partly located in France, AFSCA said in a statement.

The European Food Safety Authority said in December that an unprecedented number of bird flu outbreaks among wild birds and their wide geographic spread were driving an early and strong wave of the disease in Europe last year.

Israel on Tuesday reported an outbreak of H5N1 on a farm in the north of the country.

 

Grain terminal group Senalia expects doubling of shipments in 2025/26

Grain export terminal operator Senalia expects its volumes in 2025/26 to double from last season after a rebound in French harvest production and amid brisk demand for barley, the company said on Friday.

France is the European Union’s biggest grain supplier and Rouen on the river Seine in Normandy its main grain export hub. The rain-hit 2024 harvest cut its export surplus and left port terminals idle for part of the season.

Cooperative-owned Senalia forecasts that it will load 3.8 million metric tons of cereals in the current July-June season, up from 1.8 million in 2024/25 and matching its volume from two years ago, Alain Charvillat, Senalia’s head of cereal exports, told reporters.

The anticipated rise includes 1.7 million tons already loaded in the July-December period, he said.

In addition to increased harvest supply, export activity has been boosted by strong demand for animal-feed barley. Senalia was scheduled to load a rare barley cargo for Iraq soon, which will add to a range of markets supplied in the Middle East and North Africa that have helped offset a lull in Chinese demand since the summer, Charvillat said.

“We’re competitive on price and we’ve got this multitude of destinations,” he said of barley.

 

US EPA will reassess safety of herbicide paraquat, says its chief

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will reassess the safety of herbicide paraquat, its administrator Lee Zeldin said on Friday on X, adding that the body is requiring manufacturers to thoroughly prove that current uses are safe in real-world conditions.

Syngenta, which markets paraquat under the brand name Gramoxone, is among the herbicide’s major sellers.

The Swiss-based agricultural chemical company is facing several lawsuits in the U.S., where plaintiffs allege exposure to paraquat caused them to develop Parkinson’s, a degenerative brain disease that leads to loss of muscle coordination.

It has previously said there was “no credible evidence” that paraquat causes Parkinson’s.

In agricultural settings, paraquat is mostly applied to soybean, corn and cotton crop fields to control invasive weeds and grasses, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

 

 

 

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