Global Ag News For Jan 15.2026

TOP HEADLINES

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 3/4 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal up $2.10; Soyoil down 0.30.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 2 in SRW, down 4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 21 3/4; Soybeans down 17 1/4; Soymeal down $9.70; Soyoil up 0.99.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 8 1/4 in SRW, up 11 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 16; Soybeans down 2 1/4; Soymeal down $5.40; Soyoil up 2.12.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans down 6 yuan; Soymeal down 1; Soyoil down 26; Palm oil down 132; Corn up 8 — Malaysian Palm is down 60.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 60 ringgit (-1.49%) at 3980.

There were changes in registrations (-44 Soybeans, 11 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 519 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 14 were: SRW Wheat up 4,478 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,575, Corn up 27,407, Soybeans up 7,894, Soymeal down 53, Soyoil down 331.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 15 JANUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Above-normal temperatures are forecast for the West, while the Midwest/Plains stays cold over the next 15 days. The Northern/Central Plains, and Upper Midwest will see above-normal precipitation, with drier conditions elsewhere across the U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: The Pampas will stay cooler with above-normal rainfall in central Pampas corn and soybean belts, while Central Brazil faces wet weather and cooler temperatures, with flood risks limited to the Southeast.
• EUROPE: Central Europe will see below-normal temperatures over the next 6-15 days. Wet spells are expected in Spain, France, and the southern U.K., while Eastern Europe and Germany remain dry.
• ASIA: Southeast and East Asia are expected to experience mostly near-normal to cooler temperatures over the next 6–15 days, with mixed conditions across northern and southern India. Dry weather will dominate Asia, except for brief wet spells in Central China/North India.
• AFRICA: Wet spells may affect cocoa harvesting in southern West Africa, while flood risks remain limited to the corn belts of South Africa.
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecast indicates an active phase (6-7), which is expected to support increased weather activity across South America over the next 15 days.

 

Brazil: Rainfall coverage is increasing across central Brazil this week, which is beneficial for filling soybeans. Recent heat and limited showers may have been somewhat stressful in some areas, but the coming rain is likely to relieve much of that stress. A front will move up from Argentina this weekend to give some showers to southern areas going into next week, and enhance showers in central Brazil around the middle of next week.

Argentina: Southern and central areas have been much drier and are seeing soil moisture and crop conditions falling. A front brought some isolated showers to southern areas on Tuesday, but was neither widespread nor heavy. Another will sweep through the country on Thursday and Friday. Rainfall amounts may be impressive for a couple of lucky locations in the north, but the south continues to look dry. Crop conditions are forecast to continue falling, which has been planned for by many producers that understand the risk for dryness in January. There will be some effect, however.

Northern Plains: A couple more days of warmth are on tap before the pattern collapses and turns to a colder one this weekend and especially next week with more clippers bringing down arctic air.

Central/Southern Plains: Above-normal temperatures this week have melted the snow that fell in the southwest over the weekend. Wheat has limited cold hardiness after recent weeks of warmth. But eventually some colder air is likely to move down into the region and threaten more of the wheat. Though some cooler temperatures will occur this weekend, the pattern may be a bit more threatening by the end of next week.

Midwest: Several clippers are moving through with variable temperatures and limited showers going into next week. Though some milder temperatures may move in ahead of each clipper, the trend is for below-normal temperatures through next week and we may have to watch for a bigger system and stronger burst of cold air to move through at the end of next week.

Delta: Water levels along the Mississippi River are getting a boost from a system that brought showers late last week, but are still low and not a long-term solution to the low water levels. Clipper systems moving through this week will not provide a meaningful boost to levels either. A better storm track through the region will be necessary. That may start late next week or weekend, but is forecast to be more favorable in February and March.

 

The player sheet for 1/14 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,500 corn, buyers of 4,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN, CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 334,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. USDA also confirmed private sales of 136,000 tons of U.S. corn to South Korea for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) bought an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. The international tender sought up to 210,000 tons in three consignments of up to 70,000 tons. But traders said they believed no purchases were made of the other two 70,000 ton consignments sought.
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) bought an estimated 136,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in private deal on Tuesday which can be sourced from optional worldwide origins, European traders said on Wednesday. The MFG had also issued a separate international tender to purchase 210,000 tons of corn closing on Wednesday, continuing brisk Asian corn buying after sharp falls in Chicago corn futures this week.
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) bought around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a second private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender, European traders said on Wednesday. This followed a previous purchase by the FLC of 67,000 tons of corn in a separate private deal on Tuesday, continuing heavy Asian corn buying after sharp falls in Chicago corn futures.
• CORN SALE: The Busan section of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Tuesday without an international tender being issued, European traders said on Wednesday.
• CORN SALE: South Korean group Cargill Agri Purina has purchased about 68,000 metric tons of corn in an international tenderseeking up to 140,000 tons on Wednesday, European traders said. The tender sought corn sourced from South America or South Africa only. No purchase was reported of a second consignment of corn also sought in the tender.
• SOYMEAL SALE: South Korean importer the Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 60,000 metric tons of soymeal sourced optionally from South America, the United States or China in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said.
• SOYMEAL SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) bought an estimated 60,000 metric tons of soymeal in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender, European traders said. The deal continued heavy soymeal and corn purchasing by Korean importers this week after sharp falls in Chicago soy and corn futures.
• FEED BARLEY SALE: Jordan’s state grain buyer has purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said.
• BARLEY PURHCASE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has provisionally bought about 210,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Thursday, European traders said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. The deadline for price offers is January 20.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A group of South Korean flour mills has issued an international tender to purchase around 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States only, European traders said on Thursday. A range of different wheat types is sought for shipment between May 1 and May 31, they said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s state grains buying agency General Food Security Authority (GFSA) said on Thursday it has issued an international tender to purchase around 595,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase and import about 210,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is January 15.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 60,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 3.5% to 24.473M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 24.126 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.196m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.105m

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Jan. 8.

• Corn est. range 600k – 1,500k tons, with avg of 925k
• Soybean est. range 800k – 1,800k tons, with avg of 1,475k

 

US CROP EXPORTS: Corn to South Korea, Soybeans to China

The US Department of Agriculture on Wednesday announces the following export sales activity on its website:

Two sales announced:

• 136,000 tons of corn to South Korea for 2025-26 marketing year
• 334,000 tons of soybeans to China for 2025-26

 

CROP SURVEY: Brazil 2025-26 Soybean Output Seen at 179.2M Tons

Brazil soybean production est. seen 2.1m tons higher than the national forecast agency’s previous est. in December, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of eight analysts.

• The range of estimates varied from 176m tons to 184m tons
• Brazil’s corn crop seen 1m tons higher at 139.9m tons
• Conab, the Brazilian national supply company, is scheduled to release its latest estimates on Jan. 15 at 9am local time

 

Argentina 2025/26 corn harvest seen at record 62 million tons on larger planting area

Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange bumped up its estimate for the 2025/26 corn harvest on Wednesday to a record 62 million metric tons on a larger-than-expected planting area of the crop.

• The revised estimate is up from a previous forecast of 61 million tons.
• Argentina is the world’s third-largest corn exporter.
• The harvest would exceed the previous record from the 2023/24 cycle by 9.5 million tons.
• Hot, dry conditions in recent weeks reduced crop productivity by less than expected, the exchange said.
• Rain is forecast for key production areas in coming days.
• The exchange said it may raise its soybean harvest estimate from 47 million tons with expected rainfall.

 

Grassley Prods EPA on Exemptions for Renewable Fuel Standards

US Sen. Chuck Grassley on Wednesday prodded the Environmental Protection Agency to answer concerns raised about how it is administering exemptions from biofuel blending mandates for some refineries.

• In a Jan. 14 letter to EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, the Iowa Republican asked the agency to answer several questions “to reinforce the integrity” of the renewable fuel standard, which sets blending mandates for biofuels
  • Waivers are often granted to smaller refineries, and those facing economic hardship
• Biofuel producers, as well as refiners, have been waiting on Washington to release its final 2026-2027 biofuel-blending policy
  • Trump administration earlier this year proposed increasing the amount of renewable fuel required to be blended into gasoline and diesel in future years
• Grassley’s letter follows an October missive from the attorneys general of Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota
  • It detailed multiple concerns, including whether some refineries were artificially idling their plants to meet requirements for the exemption
  • It also questioned whether refineries were “claiming disproportionate economic hardship to the EPA while “simultaneously claiming exceptional financial performance to the Securities and Exchange Commission”
• Grassley’s letter asked the EPA whether it had responded to the attorneys general and investigated their concerns, and whether it would take those concerns into consideration in the future

 

Early January weather causes no threat to Ukraine winter grains, forecasters say

Weather conditions in the first ten days of January have not posed a threat to Ukraine’s winter grain crops, state weather forecasters said on Wednesday.

Ukraine traditionally produces winter grains – winter wheat and barley, which are sown in autumn and harvested in the summer of the following year.

Winter grains typically have higher yields than spring grains, but weather risks are also quite high.

“No threatening phenomena were observed for the overwintering of winter crops and fruit crops,” forecasters said in a report.

Ukraine’s economy ministry has said farmers had sown about 4.7 million hectares of winter wheat and 586,100 hectares of winter barley for the 2026 harvest, mostly the same acreage as farmers sowed a year earlier.

Since the end of last week, severe frosts with night-time temperatures reaching minus 18 degrees Celsius (-0.4°F) have prevailed throughout Ukraine, and their impact on crops is not yet known.

Forecasters said that the critical temperature for winter wheat crops is between minus 13 and minus 16 degrees Celsius at a depth of 3 centimetres.

The temperature at a depth of 3 cm dropped to minus 9 degrees in some regions of southern Ukraine in early January, they noted.

 

French Soft-Wheat, Corn Export Outlooks Seen Steady: AgriMer

France’s soft-wheat exports in the 2025-26 season that started in July are seen unchanged at about 15.1m tons, FranceAgriMer said in a report on Wednesday.

• That’s up 45% y/y
• The outlook for sales outside the EU eases to 7.5m tons, versus a December forecast of 7.6m tons; Outlook for sales to EU rose to 7.5m tons from Dec. forecast of 7.4m tons
• Stockpiles projected at 2.8m tons, slightly up from an estimate of 2.7m tons last month

 

India issues notices to edible oil companies for failing to submit production returns

India has issued notices to some large edible oil companies for failing to submit mandatory monthly production returns, a government statement said on Wednesday.

The statement did not mention the names of the companies, but said they had been given seven days to submit their replies explaining why action should not be taken against them.

 

Russia doubled pig farming product exports to China in 2025, agriculture watchdog says

Russia almost doubled exports of pig farming products, including pork and offal, to China in 2025, the country’s agricultural watchdog said on Wednesday.

The watchdog said China imported 76,100 metric tons of pig farming products last year compared to 39,100 tons in 2024. It said pork imports had increased by 73% to 36,600 tons while imports of pig farming by-products, which include offal, soared to 39,500 tons.

Russia’s pork and pig farming sector aims to capture 10% of China’s pork import market in the coming years from a standing start, seeking to take advantage of trade tensions between the European Union and China, the world’s biggest pork consumer.

In 2024, over half of China’s $4.8 billion worth of pork imports came from the EU.

China on December 16 sharply reduced tariffs on European Union pork imports in the final ruling of an anti-dumping investigation seen as a response to the bloc’s duties on Chinese electric vehicles.

Home to half the world’s pigs, China’s massive hog sector is grappling with a supply glut amid weak consumer demand. Chinese pork prices have been falling throughout 2025 and are expected to continue their decline, analysts have said.

 

Global grain traders’ green pledges face skepticism as deal to protect Brazil’s rainforest unravels

• Major grains traders quit the Amazon Soy Moratorium
• New forest pledges lack the same level of transparency
• Retailers who demanded 2006 pact have been muted so far

Environmental groups are skeptical about whether grain traders that supply livestock feed to global meat markets will keep pledges to avoid buying crops grown on recently deforested lands in Brazil, after a two-decade corporate pact to protect the Amazon rainforest unraveled this month.

Global grains traders abandoned the Amazon Soy Moratorium after local lawmakers in Brazil’s largest agricultural state Mato Grosso threatened to strip tax incentives from those who honored commitments to avoid buying soy from farmers who razed rainforest acres to grow crops.

The news came just as new commitments from grain traders to end all deforestation in their supply chains were expected to take effect. This would have amplified protections to other threatened ecosystems such as the Cerrado grasslands and Pantanal wetlands, which suffered immense tree loss in recent decades.

Trading companies adopted the Soy Moratorium in 2006 after years of campaigning by environmental groups. The pact had allowed the traders to share data on deforestation within their supply chain with each other and with civil society groups such as environmentalists monitoring impact.

Environmentalists had been campaigning for a wider corporate pledge for a decade. Brazil still loses hundreds of thousands of acres of native vegetation to soy every year.

Since 2021, U.S.-based ADM, Bunge, and Cargill, Europe’s Louis Dreyfus, Brazil’s Amaggi and China’s COFCO had made commitments to end all deforestation in their supply chains, beginning in 2025-2026.

The moratorium that unraveled this month had barred traders from buying soybeans from farmers who razed forests after 2008. The pact collapsed as deadlines for new pledges neared. New commitments allow purchases from farms on land cleared up to between 2020 and 2025, depending on the trading firm. ADM, Bunge, Cargill, LDC and Amaggi did not respond to questions about their anti-deforestation commitments.

This means current systems to track new commitments lack the openness and collaboration that, according to researchers, enabled the pact and other conservation measures to preserve an Ireland-sized area of the Amazon rainforest.

Much of Brazil’s soy is used as feed to fatten animals for meat sold by supermarkets and fast-food chains such as McDonald’s. Groups representing these big customers have been vague about how strictly they will monitor whether the meat they purchase came from animals fed with soy from cleared rainforest.

“The heart of the issue is transparency and verification paths, meaning a statement is not enough,” said Andre Lima, who leads efforts to fight deforestation in Brazil’s Environment Ministry. “Commitments that come with transparency and reporting, verification and measuring mechanisms certainly have a positive result,” he added.

COFCO said a third-party auditor has verified that 99% of the soybeans it buys in Brazil are deforestation-free since 2024. COFCO said its internal controls classify grains purchased from recently deforested areas as “higher emitting”.

Glenn Hurowitz, CEO of environmental watchdog Mighty Earth, said he was glad to see companies commit to protect all ecosystems, but was concerned about compliance.

“It just seems weird to be adopting stronger nature protections at the same time that you’re abandoning a proven and effective mechanism to save the Amazon,” he said. “They’re gutting the very mechanism that has underpinned all their claims to environmental responsibility.”

 

HIGH RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ON SOUTHEAST BRAZIL INTO LATE JANUARY, WHILE OTHER AREAS OF THE CONTINENT WILL BE DRY

What to Watch:

• Argentina will trend cooler/drier into late January in a negative outlook for corn/soybeans, though rains could improve at the end of the month
• High rainfall will be focused on Southeast Brazil through the next couple weeks, while Southern Brazil crops will suffer from dry conditions
• Moderate temperatures and dry conditions in store for Paraguay over the next 1-2 weeks in a positive outlook for corn/soybeans after prior rains

 

 

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