Global Ag News for Jan 17.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Farmers group fears billion-euro loss from German foot-and-mouth disease

Germany’s farming and food industry is likely to have lost about 1 billion euros ($1 billion) of business following an outbreak of the livestock illness foot-and-mouth disease, the head of the farming cooperatives association told German media on Thursday.

Germany announced its first outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in nearly 40 years on Jan. 10 in a herd of water buffalo on the outskirts of Berlin in the Brandenburg region.

Measures to contain the highly infectious disease, which poses no danger to humans, often involve bans on imports of meat and dairy products from affected countries, with Britain, South Korea and Mexico among states imposing import bans on Germany this week.

“Along the value-added chain, we believe that a sales loss of more than 1 billion euros exists,” Joerg Migende, head of the association of German farm cooperatives DRV, told German television programme ARD-Hauptstadtstudio.

He said the economic damage from foot-and-mouth to Germany looked like being “immense”.

Between January and October 2024, the UK imported German pig meat worth 448 million pounds ($545 million), Britain’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board said this week. Dairy imports during the same period were valued at 283 million pounds.

German authorities continued to test animals in the quarantine zone in the Brandenburg region on Thursday with test results still awaited.

A spokesperson for the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said on Thursday the Commission was in constant contact with the German authorities and Germany’s efforts to stop the disease spreading would enable the regionalisation principle to be used.

Under this EU rule, sales of meat and dairy products are only restricted from the region where the disease has been confirmed and produce from elsewhere in the affected country can still be sold inside the EU.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 in SRW, up 1/2 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 5 1/2; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil up 0.53.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 5 3/4 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, up 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans down 3/4; Soymeal down $3.20; Soyoil down 0.02.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 15 in SRW, down 10 1/2 in HRW, down 10 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 18 1/4; Soybeans up 14; Soymeal down $21.80; Soyoil up 5.20.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 7 yuan; Soymeal down 1; Soyoil down 148; Palm oil down 102; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 4.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 4 ringgit (+0.10%) at 4190.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 16 were: SRW Wheat up 77 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,052, Corn up 9,430, Soybeans down 2,805, Soymeal up 3,793, Soyoil up 1,650.

 

Brazil: Widespread wet season showers continue in central and northern Brazil, favorable for filling soybeans, but hampering the very early harvest. The main harvest period does not start for another week, so the rain is overall favorable, but becoming less so. If rainfall continues to be heavy for the end of January and into February, it may have more of an impact on harvesting soybeans and planting safrinha corn. Showers across the south have been much less frequent, which has been a problem for filling soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana and pollinating to filling corn in Rio Grande do Sul. A front moving through this weekend is looking to bring more widespread precipitation, but could be followed by another period of dryness.

Argentina: Soil moisture is falling in many areas of Argentina with very little showers and temperatures well above normal in the 90s and 100s, leading to declining crop conditions. We should see a burst of showers moving through over the next few days, but any heavy amounts may be limited. Models disagree on the amount of precipitation that is expected to fall, but dry conditions are expected to follow well into next week, especially across critical central production areas.

Northern Plains: A front moves through on Friday, bringing scattered light snow and a burst of very cold air for a few days. While some moderation will be possible for the second half of next week, more cold air is likely to flow in next weekend. Another clipper system from Canada will dip south during the middle of next week, but snowfall could be light.

Central/Southern Plains: A front and system will move through Friday and Saturday, bringing limited showers, but also another burst of very cold air. Exposed wheat areas may see some winter kill from this burst of cold that should last well into next week. A system may form early next week in the cold air, bringing potential widespread wintry prospects across the south.

Midwest: Temperatures rise on Thursday and Friday, especially across the northwest. But a system moving through this weekend should bring through a burst of showers as a mix of rain and snow and will be followed by a burst of extremely cold air through most of next week. The cold will keep lake-effect snow going for several days as well. A slight warming trend may not return until the end of next week.

Lower Mississippi: Water levels remain above the low-water mark in most of the Mississippi and Ohio River systems, making for mostly easy transportation. Northern areas of the Mississippi Basin are getting drier though, and could use some precipitation to keep water levels up. A system moving through this weekend could help that somewhat, though the forecast is drier for most of the region through next week. Any above-average precipitation next week will favor far southern areas with potential wintry precipitation moving through early in the week.

Europe: Drier conditions continue in Europe, with only limited showers moving through the northeast and west at various points over the next couple of weeks. The drier conditions would be more favored across the northwest, but more rain is needed in Spain as well as some other dry areas in the southeast. There are no risks of significant cold for the next couple of weeks.

Black Sea: Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. Scattered showers have been more prevalent since crops went dormant, but not enough to provide adequate snow cover or boost soil moisture in a significant way just yet. Systems will continue to provide periodic, but mostly light showers through the end of January. Amounts do not look heavy though, and a lot of rain and snow are needed before wheat breaks dormancy this spring. There are no risks of significant cold for the next couple of weeks that would be a large concern for winter kill on exposed wheat.

Australia: Scattered showers have been going through eastern areas recently, offering some help for developing cotton and sorghum. Dry areas in the west and south are not getting as lucky with only limited showers and declining soil moisture in these areas. Well above-average temperatures are also not favorable for the dry western areas as any relief in these temperatures is unlikely next week.

 

The player sheet for Jan. 16 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,500 corn, sellers of 7,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 6,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed private sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• CORN SALE: The USDA confirmed private sales of 135,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Taiwan for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries bought a total of 132,888 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The TFMA group of animal feed importers in Thailand is believed to have purchased around 195,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a tender earlier this week
• FEED GRAIN TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal-feed corn, 35,000 tons of feed barley, and 70,000 tons of soymeal
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, with price offers that were due by Jan. 1.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 TODAY

US Sold 569.1K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 1.02M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Jan. 9.

• Corn sales rose to 1,024k tons vs 445k in previous week
• Soybean sales rose to 569k tons vs 289k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 522k tons vs 111k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following table shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Jan. 9, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 214k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Japan with 281k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: South Korea with 132k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Jan. 9, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 11.7k tons of the 30.3k tons of pork sold in the week
• Mexico and South Korea combined for 16.7k tons of the 30.3k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

More Argentine Soy in Poor Condition on Drought: Grain Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report that 21% of soy plants are in poor or very poor condition, up from 8% last week, amid dryness.

• For corn, the figure jumped to 14% from 9% a week earlier

 

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Jan. 16: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 corn and soybean area planted estimates are maintained
• Soybean planting advances to 98% complete and corn planting 95% complete

 

Brazil Soy Output Raised to 172.4M Tons: Agroconsult

Estimate for Brazil’s soybean production is an 11% increase from previous crop season, and above Agroconsult’s outlook in November for 172.2 million tons.

• Despite climate risks, Brazil’s 2024-25 soybean crop has conditions to be the largest in history, says Rally da Safra expedition coordinator André Debastiani
  • That’s due to record planted area, good conditions during planting, above average yields expected for all producing states and rains forecast for February and March
• Planted area to reach record 47.5 million hectares, 1.5% larger than 2023-24 marketing year
• Exports in 2025 expected to reach record 105.1 million tons
• Largest soybean growing state Mato Grosso has great yield potential, but rains next week may create delays for harvest, and bring lower yield, quality
• Losses expected in southern state Rio Grande do Sul and central state Mato Grosso do Sul due to dryness and high temperatures, Debastiani says
  • Forecast rains for the next days could avoid additional losses
  • Southern Paraná state, second largest soy producer state in Brazil, also need more rains
• Estimate for the second corn crop, the largest in the country and is planted after soybean harvest, maintained at 107.3 million tons

 

Chinese buyers switch to cheaper Brazilian soybeans ahead of Trump return

• Chinese buyers shift to Brazilian soybeans as tariffs loom
• Brazilian prices lower than U.S. oilseeds
• China’s Q1 soybean imports seen at 17.3-18.0 mln T

Chinese soybean processors have turned to competitively priced Brazilian cargoes instead of U.S. oilseeds, amid fears Washington will impose import tariffs after President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.

Worries about revived trade tensions during Trump’s second administration have already disrupted trade flows to China, the world’s biggest agricultural goods importer, prompting buyers to stockpile inventories and seek alternative suppliers.

Chinese processors have secured nearly all of their cargoes from Brazil for first quarter shipment, according to three trade sources.

Last year, Brazil accounted for 54% of Chinese first quarter soybean imports, while the U.S. supplied 38%. China takes more than 60% of the soybeans shipped worldwide.

“Chinese crushers are now booking Brazilian cargoes for February and March shipment,” said a trader in Singapore. “Both state-owned and private crushers, all of them are taking Brazilian beans. It is a 100% shift to Brazil.”

Trump has threatened tariffs of 10% to 60% on goods from China, which would probably prompt retaliatory Chinese duties on U.S. farm products.

In 2018, during Trump’s first term, the U.S. and China engaged in tit-for-tat tariffs that led Beijing to take permanent steps to reduce its reliance on American farm goods.

The share of China’s soybean imports from the United States dropped to 18% in the first 11 months of 2024, from 40% in the whole of 2016, while Brazil’s share grew to 74% from 46%, according to Chinese customs data.

South American soybeans, which are harvested early in the year, dominate the global trade until U.S. supplies enter the market from August.

But this year Chinese oilseed importers have turned to Brazilian beans more quickly and en masse, hitting U.S. suppliers towards the end of their peak marketing season in January.

This is likely to leave the U.S., the No.2 soybean exporter after Brazil, with 10.34 million metric tons of beans by the end of the 2024/25 marketing year in August, the highest in five years, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates.

CHEAPER BEANS

The competitive price of Brazilian soybeans is a key draw for Chinese importers, traders said.

“Concerns over potential trade tensions, especially after Trump’s re-election, led to increased soybean purchases in Q4 2024, with shipments arriving in late 2024 and Q1 2025,” said Lin Guofa, a senior analyst at Bric Agriculture Group, a consultancy.

“Favourable weather in Brazil and the depreciation of the real have lowered production costs, encouraging further soybean imports,” Lin added.

The spread between U.S. and Brazilian soybeans has widened amid expectations of a record crop in the South American country.

Soybeans from Brazil are being priced at $420 per ton, including cost and freight, to China for February, while U.S Pacific Northwest cargoes are at around $451 per ton.

However, ample domestic supplies are likely to cap soybean demand, traders said.

China’s first quarter soybean imports are expected to fall to 17.3-18.0 million metric tons, from 18.58 million tons a year ago, according to the average of estimates from four analysts.

“The main reason was due to an oversupply of imported soybeans in 2024, and everyone is now waiting for the new Brazilian crops to arrive,” said a Shanghai-based analyst, declining to be named as they were not authorised to speak to the media.

China imported a record 105.03 million metric tons of soybeans in 2024.

While private buyers turn to Brazilian supplies, traders said state stockpiler Sinograin is still in the market for U.S. soybeans, which are preferred for stockpiling due to their higher oil content.

 

Cofco Forced to Resell Wheat Cargoes as Beijing Shields Farmers

China’s biggest state-run crop trader has been forced to resell at least two cargoes of imported wheat, as Beijing extends curbs on foreign purchases to bolster the domestic industry.

Cofco Corp. this month resold the shipments of Australian wheat to countries including Indonesia and Thailand, according to people familiar with the sales who asked not to be identified because the matter is sensitive. The cargoes were due to arrive in China during January to April, they said.

Spokespeople for Cofco and its trading arm Cofco International Ltd. didn’t immediately reply to emails seeking comment. The National Reform and Development Commission, China’s state planner that manages grain import quotas, didn’t reply to a fax seeking comment on the matter.

Beijing’s allocation of grain import quotas for wheat and corn has slowed this year, the people said. That could signal subdued demand from the world’s top food importer, weighing on the global market.

Chinese authorities asked traders and processors last year to buy less grain from overseas in order to support the local industry, which was facing pressure from plentiful supply and weaker domestic demand. The measures included limiting deliveries of corn, and halting purchases of barley and sorghum. Disruptions were also seen in soybeans, with cargoes delayed and causing shortages.

China’s wheat imports are managed under the so-called Tariff Rate Quota system, and quotas are typically allocated throughout the year. The total is set at 9.64 million tons every year and state-owned companies get 90%, with the bulk going to Cofco. Shipments incur a 1% tariff, but if the overall quota is exceeded, additional imports are slapped with a 65% levy.

Other efforts to support China’s farmers include buying of local corn for state reserves. The measure, however, has failed to significantly lift domestic prices, which are currently languishing near the lowest level since 2020.

 

Year may register record production and low international prices

Cepea, January 16, 2025 – The 2024/25 crop in Brazil started with concerns about the low volume of rains, but the favorable weather in the coming months may lead to a record soybean production.

As for the demand, national policies that encourage a higher blend of biodiesel into diesel oil may favor the demand for soybeans to process. In the international scenario, the sharp dollar valuation against Real leads the Brazilian product to be more attractive to international purchasers, which tends to favor exports.

Regarding prices, trades in US dollar to ship at Brazilian ports in the first semester of 2025 have been closed at lower quotations compared to those verified one year ago, and international values are also operating at lower levels.

In general, the market may also be focused on actions of the new government in the US, especially those concerning tariffs of imports, which can result in reactions of other countries and allocate purchasers to South America. However, in Argentina, the government indicated the possibility to reduce “retenciones” on agricultural products in 2025, which can encourage exports and boost the competition for soybean meal with Brazil, for instance.

The USDA projects that the Brazilian output may total the record of 169 million tons (40% of the global crop), while Conab estimates 166.2 million tons.

The USDA indicates that Brazil is expected to supply the global market with 105.5 million tons of soybean in the 2024/25 crop (+1.3% in relation to the previous season).

Among countries that process soybeans, the USDA indicates a smaller volume only for Brazil (-1.3%, at 54 million tons). Abiove (Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries), in turn, expects an increase of national crushing activities, at 57 million tons in 2025.

It is worth noting that the domestic consumption of soybean oil in Brazil is likely to reach the record of 9.53 million tons, being 5.3 million tons for the industry and 4.23 million tons allocated for food.

Regarding the soybean meal, the global consumption is estimated at 266.6 million tons. In Brazil, 21 million tons of soy meal may be consumed (+5%) and 20.5 million tons are likely to be shipped (-9.8%), according to data from the USDA.

 

IGC Trims Outlook for Global Grain Stockpiles in 2024-25 Season

Global grain stockpiles for the 2024-25 season are now seen at 573 million tons, down from November’s estimate of 576 million tons, the International Grains Council said Thursday.

• The cut comes on reduced corn and barley forecast
  • Total grain production is “expected to contract slightly”, but forecasts for crops remain around 2.31b tons
• Stockpile estimates for certain crops:
  • Wheat seen at 265m tons, up from previous outlook of 263m tons
  • Corn estimated at 272m tons, down from 275m tons
  • Soybeans forecast at 84m tons, up 82m tons
  • Rice outlook at 176m tons, down from 179m tons

 

India Dec. Oilmeals Exports Rise to 398,731 Tons

India’s oilmeals exports rose to 398,731 tons in December from 363,620 tons in November, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Rapeseed meal exports fell to 88,746 tons from 145,089 tons in November
• Soymeal exports rose to 278,413 tons from 183,481 tons in November
• Rice-bran extract exports fell to 70 tons from 78 tons in November
• Castorseed meal exports fell to 28,452 tons from 31,307 tons in November

 

Argentina farmers ask for tax relief as crops wither, prices down

Argentina’s largest agricultural groups on Thursday asked the government to offer tax relief for the sector, which they said was in a “critical” situation due to a drought and low crop prices.

Their request comes a day after the Rosario Grains Exchange cut its estimate for the season’s corn harvest and said the soy crop would also be lower than previously expected.

Argentina is a major producer of both crops, which have been hit by a lack of rains since late December.

The leaders of four major agricultural groups, in a letter to the government, requested a sit-down with the agricultural secretariat and the economy ministry, which controls the secretariat, to discuss potential tax cuts and a lifting of export taxes.

Soybean exports are currently taxed at 33% and corn and wheat at 12%. Shipments of soybean oil and flour pay a 31% tax.

“Weather conditions… along with the depressed international prices and high production costs, necessitate this (measure),” the groups said in their letter.

The economy ministry did not immediately comment on the farmers’ request.

Libertarian President Javier Milei, who took office in December 2023, rode to victory with strong support from the agricultural sector. He promised that he would cut export taxes once the South American nation’s hard-hit economy recovers.

 

Foreign demand, limited supply push Ukraine’s wheat prices up, analyst says

Demand from importers and limited supplies have boosted export prices for Ukrainian wheat this week, analyst APK-Inform said on Thursday.

Ukraine traditionally ships abroad the major part of its exportable wheat surplus in the first half of the season, and switches mostly to corn in January-February.

The consultancy said in a report that milling wheat prices had increased $2 to $4 per metric ton so far this week and stood at $212-221 per ton Carriage Paid To (CPT) as of Jan. 16.

“The rise in wheat prices is driven by importers’ active interest in purchasing the crop, with limited supply from farmers, the previous upward trend in the external grain market, and reduced competition in key markets amid restrictions on Russian wheat exports,” APK-Inform said.

It added that prices were also supported by competition between millers and exporters.

Ukraine’s largest agricultural producers’ union, UAC, said this week that milling wheat export prices could rise to $230 per ton in February.

The farm ministry said on Wednesday that Ukraine had exported 10.3 million tons of wheat so far in the 2024/25 July-June season, including 413,000 tons in the first half of January.

Ukraine harvested 22.4 million tons of wheat in 2024 and the government is allowing the export of 16.2 million tons in 2024/25.

 

China 2024 pork output falls for first time in four years

China’s pork production in 2024 fell for the first time after rising for three years straight, official data showed on Friday, as livestock companies reduced slaughter rates due to ample hog supply and weak meat demand.

The world’s biggest pork-producer generated 57.06 million metric tons of pork in 2024, down 1.5% from 57.94 million tons in 2023, which was the second-highest on record.

Farmers slaughtered 702.56 million hogs in 2024, down 3.3% from a year earlier, the data showed.

China accounts for about half of the world’s pork consumption. The winter season during the fourth quarter is typically a high season for pork and cured meat consumption.

In the fourth quarter, production fell by 1.8% year-on-year to 14.66 million metric tons, a decrease from a year earlier for the fourth consecutive quarter, according to Reuters calculations of the data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

Despite tepid demand, some companies ramped up production in the fourth quarter after inventory and cost cuts helped them return to profitability.

Many of China’s large hog companies are now expecting to raise slaughter rates in 2025 after slowing down production in 2024.

Wen’s Foodstuff Group 300498.SZ said it aims to slaughter 34 million hogs this year, a year-on-year increase of 12.65% compared with 2024, while New Hope 000876.SZ plans to slaughter 1 million to 2 million more hogs.

China’s pig herd stood at 427.43 million at the end of December, a decrease of 1.6%, the data showed.

The sow herd was down 1.9% at 40.80 million at the end of November, according to separate data from China’s agriculture ministry.

Despite a smaller herd size, analysts expect China’s hog supply in 2025 to remain in excess of demand and pressure prices due to improved productivity of sows.

Cash hog prices have fallen to below 16 yuan per kg since December and have remained around that level, down from a peak of 21 yuan in August, according to data from consultancy MySteel.

In a report on Friday, it said prices may come under pressure in the months ahead following the Lunar New Year later this month.

“After the Lunar New Year, as the market enters the traditional off-season and slaughterhouse orders decrease, hog prices may face a downturn, with lower procurement costs for slaughterhouses and more negative factors leading to a decline in wholesale pork prices,” the report said.

China’s beef output rose last year by 3.5% to 7.79 million tons. Poultry output increased 3.8% to 26.6 million tons and lamb and mutton decreased 2.5% to 5.18 million tons.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 452k tons in the week ending Jan. 11 from 703k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 32% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 39% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $14.96 per short ton, a decline of $0.28 from the previous week

 

 

 

 

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