Global Ag News For Jan 20.2026

TOP HEADLINES

China hits 12 million ton US soybean target pledged in trade truce

China has bought about 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling a U.S.-stated pledge to purchase that volume by the end of February, three traders told Reuters on Tuesday, after a late-October trade truce spurred buying.

As buyers shunned North American supplies amid a trade war, China recorded no imports from the United States for four consecutive months from last September, taking U.S. market share down to 15% from 21% in 2024.

But the 12-million target was met last week after bulk purchases by state stockpiler Sinograin and state trader COFCO, which were the only buyers of U.S. beans, as private crushers continue to favour cheaper supplies from Argentina and Brazil.

“Further purchases of U.S. soybeans are unlikely until the next U.S. new crop in September unless prices are competitive with South American soybean prices,” said one of the sources familiar with details of the shipment.

All the sources spoke on condition of anonymity, as they are not authorised to speak to the media.

Sinograin and COFCO did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

China resumed U.S. soybean purchases after the two countries’ leaders met in late October, with the White House saying China had also agreed to buy at least 25 million metric tons annually over the next three years, starting in 2026.

The purchased U.S. soybean cargoes, amounting to 12 million tons, are set for shipment between December and May, the sources said.

In early December, Reuters reported that at least six bulk cargo vessels were scheduled to load soybeans at U.S. Gulf Coast terminals for China, with a seventh already on the way.

One of these vessels, Ocean Harvest, is set to arrive at the eastern port of Zhangjiagang in about a week, according to ship-tracking data from LSEG and Kpler.

Much of the purchased volume is probably destined for state reserves. In recent weeks, Sinograin has held four auctions in an apparent move to free up storage for U.S. soybean shipments.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/4 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 3 1/4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 0.08.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 2 1/2 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 3 1/4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 0.08.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 4 1/4 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 5 1/2; Soymeal down $7.8n0; Soyoil up 2.26.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 8 3/4 in SRW, up 11 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 17 1/4; Soybeans up 7; Soymeal down $8.90; Soyoil up 3.97.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans up 5 yuan; Soymeal down 2; Soyoil up 26; Palm oil up 76; Corn down 10 — Malaysian Palm is up 28.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 28 ringgit (+0.69%) at 4095.

There were changes in registrations (-5 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 514 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 16 were: SRW Wheat down 1,699 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,885, Corn up 13,069, Soybeans up 5,478, Soymeal up 747, Soyoil down 2,237.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 20 JANUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Ahead of the upcoming cold outbreak, northern U.S. crop areas have enough snow cover to protect dormant wheat from damaging temperatures
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry conditions will prevail over the next 7-10 days across the Argentinian Pampas, but recent rainfall and good soil moisture should support soybean and crop growth
• EAST ASIA: A short-lived cold spell is ongoing in North and Northeast China, which may affect dormant winter wheat in Hebei Province
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Relief from rains across Indonesia over the next 10 days will help to mitigate oversaturated soil conditions in palm oil-producing regions
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Madden Julian Oscillation will be moving through a significant 6-7 phase, supportive of cold conditions in the southern US and dry weather in Indonesia

 

HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS CENTRAL BRAZIL’S KEY CORN AND SOYBEAN REGIONS

What to Watch:

• Rains in the southwest Pampas
• Flood risks across Central/Southeast Brazil

 

The player sheet for 1/16 had funds: net buyers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 16,500 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: On Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed ../search/nAQN2LHWNPprivate sales of 418,000 metric tons of U.S. corn. Of that total, 120,000 tons were sold to Japan and 298,000 tons were sold to “unknown destinations” – both for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• UPDATE TO WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korean flour mills are believed to have bought about 92,300 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Thursday, above previous estimates of 50,000 tons, European traders said on Friday. Traders reported on Friday that an additional consignment of 42,300 tons of U.S. wheat was bought in addition to the first 50,000 tons reported.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) bought an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Thursday which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Friday.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Incheon section of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Friday without an international tender being issued, European traders said. The KFA’s Incheon section is also called the Feed Buyers’ Group.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia buys 907,000 tons of hard milling wheat for a total average price $260.91 C&F with delivery between April and May, the General Food Security Authority says in a statement.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s state grains buying agency General Food Security Authority (GFSA) issued an international tender to purchase around 595,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat. The deadline for submission of price offers was January 16, the GFSA said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for price offers is January 20.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is January 21.

 

 

TODAY

CROP TENDER: USDA Buys 183,700 Tons US HRW Wheat for Africa

The US Department of Agriculture purchased $47.8 million of hard red winter wheat cargoes under the Food for Progress program, the agency said in a Friday statement.

• Purchases from Cargill Inc. and CHS Inc. came at prices ranging from $254.35 to $270.61 per metric ton with shipments out of Houston, Texas, and Kalama, Washington
• Agency initially sought up to 188,000 tons in shipments to Ethiopia and Kenya

 

US CROP EXPORTS: Corn to Japan, Corn to Unknown Buyers

The US Department of Agriculture on Friday announces the following export sales activity on its website:

Five sales announced:

• 120,000 tons of corn to Japan for 2025-26 marketing year
• 298,000 tons of corn to Unknown Buyers for 2025-26

 

Brazil harvests 1.39% of 2025/26 soybean area, Patria AgroNegocios says

Farmers in Brazil harvested 1.39% of 2025/26 expected soybean area, above the 0.23% seen at this time last year, consultancy firm Patria AgroNegocios said on Friday.

• The five-year average for the period is 1.02%, Patria said.
• In Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top farming state, harvesting reached nearly 5%, the consultancy firm said.
• “Results (in Mato Grosso) are positive even in areas planted earlier and which faced limited weather conditions at the start of the cycle,” it added.

 

Brazil Soybean Harvest 2% Done as of Jan. 15: AgRural

Brazil soybean harvest reached 2% of planted area as of Jan. 15, compared to 0.6% a week before and 1.7% in the same period last year, consultancy firm AgRural says in emailed report.

• 2026 winter corn planting is 1.1% done in country’s Center-South region
  • Compares with 0.2% a week before and 0.3% a year earlier
• 2025/26 summer corn harvest reached 1.6% in the Center-South; compared to 0.5% in the previous week and 4.1% a year before

 

Brazil’s 2025/2026 Soybean Output Seen at 179.28M T: Safras

Estimate for Brazil’s 2025/2026 soy output was raised to 179.28 million tons, from 178.76 million tons in the previous forecast in November, consulting firm Safras & Mercado said in an emailed report.

• New estimate represents a 4.3% increase from Brazil output in the previous season
• Average yield this season seen at 3,728 kg/ha
• Outlook remains very favorable, says Rafael Silveira, analyst and consultant at Safras
  • ”This scenario should become more evident in the coming weeks as the harvest progresses, gains momentum, and reveals the actual productivity of the crops”

 

Brazil’s soybean exports to fall 3% in 2026, says Safras

Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to fall 3% in 2026 from last year, agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Monday, estimating shipments from the world’s largest producer and exporter to total 105 million metric tons.

• Soybean crushing in 2026 was estimated at 60 million tons, up from 58.5 million tons last year.
• Total soybean supply is set to rise 5% year-on-year to 183.79 million tons, while demand is seen declining 1% to 168.42 million tons.
• No imports expected in 2026, versus 969,000 tons in 2025.
• Final stocks projected to surge 241% to 15.37 million tons, from 4.51 million tons.
• Safras analyst Rafael Silveira said the outlook reflects expectations for another record crop and increased crushing.

 

Chinese importer buys Canadian canola, denting Australian export hopes

• Canola crops grow at a farm in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, July 5, 2025.
• Chinese importer buys first Canadian canola cargo as China set to ease tariffs
• Move expected to boost Canadian farmers, weigh on rival Australia
• Australia’s bid to capitalize on Canadian canola gap faces uncertainty

A Chinese importer bought a cargo of Canadian canola shortly after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing last week, trader sources said, boosting prospects for Canadian farmers and potentially undercutting sales by rival supplier Australia.

The Panamax cargo of about 60,000 metric tons of Canadian canola is the first since China halted imports in October, and is expected to be shipped after March, two traders with direct knowledge of the deal told Reuters on Monday.

On Friday, Carney said Canada expects China to cut tariffs on Canadian canola seed to a combined rate of about 15% by March 1 from 84% currently, part of an initial trade deal that also reduces tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

China’s commerce ministry said later that day Beijing would adjust its anti-dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, without elaborating.

“Lower duty on Canadian canola is almost a done deal after the Canadian PM visit. It makes sense to buy now,” said one oilseed trader at an international trading company.

The Chinese purchase of Canadian canola comes as Australia had been hoping to lift oilseed exports to the world’s largest importer, with state-owned COFCO buying about 500,000 tons of Australian canola in recent months.

China’s purchases of Australian canola resumed after it imposed anti-dumping duties on Canada, the first in about five years, following biosecurity curbs that derailed trade in 2020.

Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures CRSMcv1 fell 2.4% to a more than one-year low on Monday on hopes of higher supplies.

 

China’s grain and livestock output rise in 2025

China’s grain output reached 714.88 million metric tons in 2025, marking a 1.2 percent year-on-year increase, according to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.

Summer grain output totaled 149.75 million tons, down slightly by 0.1 percent, while early-season rice production rose 1.2 percent to 28.51 million tons. Autumn grain output, which constitutes the largest share of the annual total, increased 1.5 percent to 536.62 million tons.

Wheat production stood at 140.07 million tons, roughly unchanged from a year earlier. Corn output rose 2.1 percent to 301.24 million tons, while rice production increased 0.7 percent to 209.04 million tons. Soybean output climbed 1.3 percent to 20.91 million tons.

The livestock sector also recorded steady growth. Total output of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry reached 100.72 million tons in 2025, up 4.2 percent year-on-year and surpassing 100 million tons for the first time.

Pork production rose 4.1 percent to 59.38 million tons, while beef output increased 2.8 percent to 8.01 million tons. Poultry meat production jumped 6.7 percent to 28.37 million tons, though mutton output fell 4.2 percent to 4.96 million tons.

Milk production increased 0.3 percent to 40.91 million tons, while egg production declined 2.5 percent to 34.98 million tons. The number of hogs slaughtered in 2025 rose 2.4 percent to 719.73 million head, while the hog inventory at the end of the year increased 0.5 percent to 429.67 million head, the data showed.

 

India Dec. Oilmeals Exports Fall to 240,900 Tons

India’s oilmeals exports fell to 240,900 tons in December from 270,843 tons in November, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Rapeseed meal exports fell to 71,452 tons from 109,195 tons in November
• Soymeal exports rose to 114,697 tons from 113,379 tons in November
• Rice-bran extract exports rose to 31,237 tons from 23,668 tons in November
• Castorseed meal exports fell to 21,904 tons from 22,496 tons in November

 

India Allows Some Exports of Wheat Products After Three-Year Ban

India approved the export of some wheat-based goods, easing restrictions that have been in place for more than three years, on expectations for a strong harvest that will likely boost domestic supplies.

The world’s second-biggest producer of the grain greenlit the export of 500,000 tons of wheat flour and other related products such as semolina, according to a notification by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade dated Jan. 16. So far, it’s a one-off quota, and measures barring wheat shipments are still in effect.

India’s decision to restart some exports, which were halted in May 2022, coincides with the country’s trade talks with the US. The two sides are trying to ease tensions, with Washington pushing New Delhi to open up its agricultural sector and provide greater market access for American farm goods.

The best monsoon in five years is allowing India to loosen its curbs, albeit temporarily, while also heeding calls from the local industry to take advantage of overseas demand. Bloomberg News reported in November that the country was considering resuming exports of wheat products.

India’s partial return may improve global supply and offer relief to import-reliant nations across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East by easing prices.

 

Palm oil prices to average lower in 2026 on higher supply, weak biofuel demand

• Average price seen at 4,125 ringgit/MT in 2026, down 2.55% y/y
• Malaysia output estimated at 19.75 mln MT, down 2.61% y/y
• Indonesia production projected at 51.2 mln MT, up 0.39% y/y

Malaysian crude palm oil futures are expected to average slightly lower in 2026 than last year, with stronger supply from major producers and subdued biofuel demand putting downward pressure on prices, a Reuters poll showed.

Benchmark palm oil prices will average 4,125 ringgit a metric ton this year, down 2.55% from 2025, according to the median estimate of 14 traders, analysts and industry participants.

The average CPO closing price rose 2.54% to 4,233 ringgit in 2025 from 4,128 ringgit the year prior, supported by Indonesia’s rollout of a mandatory B40 biodiesel blend, which contains 40% palm oil, despite an overhang of supply in the market.

Indonesia, the world’s largest producer and exporter of palm oil, had planned to raise the mandate to B50 in 2026, but Jakarta scrapped the proposal earlier this month, opting to retain B40 due to technical and funding constraints.

“The market had been betting on prices rising on expectations that Indonesia would need more palm oil for biodiesel blending,” said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house.

“But with requirements no longer increasing, the focus has suddenly shifted back to supplies.”

Palm oil production in both Indonesia and second-largest producer Malaysia has been more robust than expected in recent months due to favorable weather, lifting Malaysian stocks to their highest level in nearly seven years.

Palm oil price volatility in the first half of 2026 will hinge on weather conditions in Southeast Asia, U.S. biofuel policies and the South American soybean crop, said Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.

Palm oil prices regained competitiveness against rival soyoil since mid last year, which is expected to support prices, said Malaysian Palm Oil Association CEO Roslin Azmy Hassan.

The Indonesian Palm Oil Association, GAPKI, estimated that Jakarta’s crude palm oil production in 2025 would reach a record 51 million tons from 48.16 million tons the previous year. Indonesia’s output is expected to grow further to 51.2 million tons in 2026 the poll showed, a 0.39% increase.

Output will likely edge higher in Indonesia as replanted company estates start harvesting, assuming favourable weather, GAPKI chairman Eddy Martono said.

Malaysia’s output is seen declining marginally amid labour constraints and ageing plantations, though yields are likely to remain above average.

Malaysia is forecast to produce 19.75 million tons of palm oil in 2026, down 2.61% from last year’s record output of 20.28 million tons, but still above the 10-year average of 19.05 million tons.

Overall supplies are expected to remain ample, with Malaysian stocks rising to 3.05 million tons from 1.7 million tons a year earlier.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Global supply may increase; prices continue in a downward trend

Cepea, 16 – Corn prices are moving down in both domestic and international markets. In Brazil, the pressure comes from the low demand, since consumers have preferred to operate with batches traded before, from good perspectives about domestic production (Conab estimates a decrease, but the volume is still considered high) and from the fact that sellers are flexible about trades. Abroad, projections of high global supply, especially in the United States, influenced price drops.

From January 8-15, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices decreased 0.8%, to close at BRL 68.37 per 60-kg bag on Jan. 15. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same comparison, corn values dropped 1.9% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.6% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

ESTIMATES – The USDA released a report this week indicating increases for both production and stocks worldwide, boosted by the increase in the United States.

The world crop in 2025/26 is expected to reach 1.29 billion tons, more than the 1.28 billion projected in December/25 and higher than the 1.23 billion verified in the crop before. Thus, inventories at the end of the season rose to 290.9 million tons, against 279.15 million tons estimated in December. However, compared to the previous crop, ending stocks are likely to drop 4 million tons.

Conab, in turn, in a report released this week, indicates that the total corn production in 2025/26 may reach 138.86 million tons, 1.5% less than in the previous crop.

The first crop is estimated by Conab at 25.89 million tons, 3.8% up in relation to the 2024/25 season. The second crop may reach 110.46 million tons, for a decrease of 2.4% in the same comparison, while the third one is forecast to drop 12%, at 2.51 million tons.

Therefore, the domestic availability (initial stocks + production and imports) is likely to total 153.12 million tons. The consumption is estimated at 94.6 million tons, and exports, at 46.5 million tons. By January/27, inventories may reach 12 million tons.

CROPS – The summer crop planting had reached 89.9% of the total in Brazil up to Jan. 10, while the harvesting had totaled 2.4% – data from Conab.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Liquidity increases again; prices move down

Cepea, 16 – Liquidity has increased again in the domestic market of soybeans. Cooperatives and grain traders have been encouraging producers to sell the remaining stocks from last season in order to make room for the new crop. This scenario and perspectives of high supply have been pressing down quotations.

It is worth noting that Conab released a report on January 15 adjusting 2025/26 initial stocks to 10.73 million tons, 2.9% more than that indicated in December/25 and 48.4% above that verified a year ago.

Although Conab projects smaller productivity in states such as Mato Grosso, Goiás, Minas Gerais and Santa Catarina, the national output continues forecast at the record of 176.12 million tons. The USDA, in turn, estimates the crop in Brazil at 178 million tons, increasing 1.7% against the previous report and 3.8% compared to last year’s crop.

This high supply scenario pressed down values in Brazil. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) moved down 2.8% from Jan. 8-15, to close at BRL 124.38 per 60-kg bag on Jan. 15. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) decreased 2.2% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 131.60 per 60-kg bag.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices downed 2% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 1.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

BYPRODUCTS – Trades of soybean meal and soybean oil continue to move at a slow pace in the domestic market, since the demand is low. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices for soybean meal dropped 0.3% from Jan. 8-15. The Brazilian value of soy oil, in turn, rose 0.2% in the same comparison, to BRL 6,419.28 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS).

 

Brazilian beef exports seen stable in 2026 despite Chinese measures, ABIEC says

Brazilian beef exports will remain stable in 2026 compared with last year, beef lobby ABIEC said on Monday, projecting shipments between 3.3 million and 3.5 million metric tons this year.

That compares with 3.5 million tons of beef exported in 2025, including fresh and processed products, when Brazil’s beef shipments had their best year on record both in volumes and revenue, according to trade data.

Roberto Perosa, ABIEC president, said exports would remain broadly unchanged after top importer China imposed safeguards to protect its industry, restricting Brazil’s and other exporters’ access to that market.

Perosa said volumes not sold to China, which last year bought roughly half of Brazil’s total beef shipments, could be redirected to other markets or shipped to countries Brazilian companies are still trying to access. He cited recently announced authorizations to export beef to Vietnam and talks to sell products in Japan, South Korea and other markets.

Talks are also under way to increase shipments in the Philippines and Indonesia, Perosa said, with Indonesia expected to clear some 18 Brazilian plants to export after officials from that country inspected local facilities.

The United States, the second-biggest market for Brazil’s beef last year after China, will buy 400,000 tons this year, up from 270,000 tons in 2025, according to fresh ABIEC projections.

Perosa said last year’s shipments to the U.S. could have been larger if U.S. President Donald Trump had not imposed additional tariffs on beef and other Brazilian commodities. Some of the U.S. tariffs which affected exports of Brazilian coffee, orange juice and other products were later removed.

Perosa said ABIEC plans to open an office in Washington, D.C., this year.

 

 

 

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