Global Ag News For Jan 26.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Russia increases supplies of soybean oil to MENA countries 11% to $290 mln in 2025 – Agroexport

MOSCOW. Jan 26 (Interfax) – Russia exported soybean oil to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries worth nearly $290 million in 2025, up 11% from 2024, the Agroexport federal center said, citing expert estimates.

This region accounted for 43% of the export revenue from supplies of Russian soybean oil abroad.

The top five buyers included Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel.

“The MENA countries are large and growing markets with a high need for imports of vegetable oils, including soybean oil. Given the increase in soybean production and processing in Russia in recent years, we are actively increasing exports of soybean oil and consider the MENA macro-region as one of the promising directions,” the head of Agroexport, Ilya Ilyushin, told journalists on the sidelines of the Gulfood2026 exhibition, which opened in Dubai on Monday.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/4 in SRW, unchanged in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans up 3 3/4; Soymeal down $0.10; Soyoil up 0.19.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 13 in SRW, up 13 3/4 in HRW, up 1/8 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans up 14 3/4; Soymeal up $10.20; Soyoil up 1.60.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 23 3/4 in SRW, up 26 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 11; Soybeans up 24; Soymeal up $0.40; Soyoil up 5.62.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans up 38 yuan; Soymeal up 7; Soyoil up 82; Palm oil up 82; Corn up 3 — Malaysian Palm is up 50.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 50 ringgit (+1.20%) at 4225.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 446 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 23 were: SRW Wheat up 7,727 contracts, HRW Wheat up 5,746, Corn up 18,732, Soybeans up 5,871, Soymeal up 757, Soyoil up 6,665.

 

Brazil: Central Brazil continued to see favorable rainfall for filling soybeans over the weekend and showers are expected throughout the week. South-central areas have been drier lately, which may be causing some stress, though showers are forecast to move back in later this week. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop as well, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

Argentina: It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time, though isolated showers did fall in some areas over the weekend. Spotty showers are forecast for the first half of the week and a front should come through this weekend with additional showers. Despite this, the prospects are still low as soil moisture and crop conditions continue to fall. High temperatures early this week may add to the stresses as well.

Northern Plains: Harsh cold air will be replaced by warmth throughout the week and warmer temperatures are forecast for this weekend and next week. A few clipper systems will move through, but precipitation will be rather limited overall.

Central/Southern Plains: A massive winter storm left a trail of ice and snow across most of the region this weekend. Extremely cold air is left in the region as well. Temperatures will slowly rise this week, but areas with heavy snow cover will take a while for the temperatures to rise, which may take until next week. Some wheat areas with heavy snow cover should have some protection from the cold while other areas will see some damage. The cold will stress cattle for a while longer yet, though.

Midwest: Extremely cold air settled over the region this weekend and a major winter storm brought heavy snow to the southern half of the region as well. While the harshest cold should leave on Monday, clippers will continue to bring reinforcements of cold air throughout the week. Warmer temperatures are forecast to move in next week, but will take longer over areas with heavier snow cover.

Delta: A major winter storm pushed through the region over the weekend. Though there are issues with infrastructure, the precipitation will give a boost to local rivers. Extremely cold air in the region could lead to issues with ice jams on local rivers this week, however.

Europe: The weather pattern has been quite active over the vast majority of the continent for some time, continuing to be favorable for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat across the south. The same active weather pattern continues throughout the week.

Black Sea: It was very cold in western Russia over the weekend, but warmer air started to move into Ukraine over the weekend. The warmer air will continue to spread through the region this week, ending the risk of winterkill on winter wheat. Some damage may have occurred over the last week’s worth of arctic cold, though. The warmer air will also come with increased showers, though Ukraine will be favored over southwestern Russia, which has a higher need for precipitation. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

 

The player sheet for 1/23 had funds: net buyers of 6,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 26,000 corn, buyers of 2,500 soybeans, buyers of 5,250 soymeal, and sellers of 2,500 soyoil.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is January 27.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is January 28.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 2.46M Tons of Soybeans Week of Jan. 15; 4.01M of Corn

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Jan. 15.

• Corn sales rose to 4,011k tons vs 1,141k in previous week
• Soybean sales rose to 2,455k tons vs 2,072k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 632k tons vs 156k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soy, Corn and Wheat for Week Ending Jan. 15

The following  shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Jan. 15, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 1.24m tons
• Top buyer of corn: Unknown Buyers with 1.24m tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending Jan. 15

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Jan. 15, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 11.8k tons of the 33.2k tons of pork sold in the week
• Hong Kong led in beef purchases

 

US Cattle on Feed Placements Fell to 1.55M Head in Dec.

Placements onto feedlots of capacity of 1,000 or more fell 5.4% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report.

• Analysts were expecting a drop of 6.9%
• The US feedlot herd as of Jan. 1 were down 3.2% y/y to 11.45m head
• Cattle marketed from feedlots increased 1.8% to 1.773m head

 

Bumper Argentine wheat harvest clouds EU export prospects

• Argentina’s record harvest adds to stiff export competition
• EU farmers resist selling at low prices, complicating exports
• EU reliant on Morocco demand, France in running for Egypt sales

The European Union faces difficulty exporting its bigger wheat surplus this season as a record Argentine crop intensifies competition, including in top EU market Morocco, while farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, traders and analysts say.

Argentina’s bumper harvest is contributing to a surge in global supply, putting higher-cost suppliers in western Europe under pressure.

Consultancy Expana last week cut its outlook for EU soft wheat exports in 2025/26 by 4% to 28.8 million metric tons. Others also see the bloc struggling to export the 30 million tons that had been widely forecast.

“Yes, that is very challenging, especially with Black Sea and Argentine offers setting the tone in many tenders,” CM Navigator grain analyst Donatas Jankauskas said.

Results this week from tenders by Algeria and Saudi Arabia dented sentiment in Europe as traders predicted Argentine and Black Sea origins like Russian wheat would cover the sales. GRA/TEND

Argentine shipments to Morocco have particularly clouded EU prospects given the bloc’s reliance on Morocco after Algeria shifted mainly to Black Sea supplies.

With Moroccan demand also set to ebb when its local harvest starts in May, time may be running out, a German trader said.

“I am not optimistic about west EU wheat exports in view of the very hard price competition from Argentina and the Black Sea, coupled with the short window of opportunity we have for new sales to our critical customer, Morocco,” he said.

France, the EU’s biggest wheat producer, has partly offset competition outside Europe with steady intra-EU shipments.

Traders are watching to see if France can pick up more sales to Egypt, after closing a price gap with Black Sea origins as the escalating war in Ukraine raised shipping costs through the Black Sea.

Reluctance by European farmers to sell at near five-year low prices has complicated exports, particularly from Germany and Poland, traders said, adding that prices are unlikely to improve this season given the global supply glut.

“West EU prices will have to fall more if we want to achieve big new export sales before the summer,” another trader said.

 

Indonesia Dec. Palm Oil Exports Rise 52% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia’s palm oil exports rose 52% m/m in December versus -13.4% in November, according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Palm oil exports rose to 2.659m tons from 1.748m tons in November
• Crude palm oil shipments rose to 365,600 tons from 31,800 tons in November
• RBD palm olein shipments rose to 1.021m tons from 813,155 tons in November
• RBD palm oil shipments rose to 486,083 tons from 363,796 tons in November
• Palm oil sales to European Union rose to 285,727 tons from 254,164 tons in November
• Palm oil sales to India rose to 907,341 tons from 390,642 tons in November
• Palm oil sales to China rose to 460,453 tons from 423,239 tons in November

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Dollar decline and possible high supply drive prices down in Brazil

Cepea, 23 – The dollar decrease against Real this week has reduced the competitiveness of the soybean from Brazil in the international market, pressing quotations down. Moreover, expectations of a record crop in Brazil have led purchasers to postpone trades, expecting the progress of the harvesting.

Data from Conab indicate that the soy harvesting had reached 3.2% of the area in Brazil up to January 17, more than the 1.2% verified in the same period last crop.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) dropped 1% from Jan. 15-22, to close at BRL 123.14 per 60-kg bag on Jan. 22. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) moved down 1.7% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 129.34 per 60-kg bag.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices decreased 0.7% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.9% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers). The US dollar downed 1.5% in the same comparison, at BRL 5.283 yesterday.

BYPRODUCTS – On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices for soybean meal dropped 0.8% from Jan. 15-22. The Brazilian value of soy oil, in turn, upped 2.9% in the same comparison, to BRL 6,667.58 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on Jan. 22.

Abiove (Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries) indicates that 61 million tons of soybeans (a record volume) may be processed in 2025/26, resulting in productions of 47 and 12.25 million tons of soybean meal and soybean oil, respectively, also records. As for the consumption, Abiove projects 20.3 million tons for soybean meal and 10.8 million tons for soy oil.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Price Index drops 4% this month

Cepea, 23 – The high supply of corn in early 2026, favorable weather conditions for crops in Brazil and the progress of the summer crop harvesting have been pressing down quotations in major regions surveyed by Cepea. Moreover, the low demand also influences quotations, since purchasers have preferred to use batches traded previously. Thus, the ESALQ/BM&F Bovespa Index for corn prices has already dropped 4% in the partial of this month (up to January 22).

Some purchasers, besides having inventories, expect that, as the soy harvesting advances, sellers may have to open room in warehouses and make cash flow. This scenario has already been observed in some areas in Paraná and Mato Grosso.

From January 15-22, the ESALQ/BM&F Bovespa Index for corn prices moved down 2.4%, to close at BRL 66.72 per 60-kg bag on Jan. 22. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same comparison, corn values decreased 1.3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.7% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

 

US Poultry Slaughter Rose 4.8% Y/y in December: USDA

Slaughter rose to 5.95 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s monthly poultry slaughter report released on the agency’s website.

• Chicken live weight rose 5% in December from year ago
• Chickens condemned post-mortem down 1.4% y/y
  • Condemned ante-mortem up 8% y/y

 

US Milk Production Rose 4.6% Y/y in December, USDA Says

Agency releases report on website.

• Output for the 24 major-producing states was 18.82b lbs, 827m more than in December of last year
• Milk per cow averaged 2,060 lbs, a 2.1% increase from last year
• Estimated output for all the US rose 4.4% y/y to 19.568b lbs

 

PERSISTENT RAINS IN CENTRAL/SE BRAZIL, DRY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH AND ARGENTINIAN PAMPAS

• Weather anomaly severity: Moderate
• Crops impacted: Corn, Soybean, Coffee
• Preferred model for the next 5 days: GFS Op
• Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: GFS Ens
• Forecast confidence: High from day 1 to 7; Moderate from day 8 to 15
• Model change from previous runs: Warmer and drier for Argentina; Wetter for 5-15 day timeframe across Central and Eastern Brazil

Significant weather anomalies:

Brazil:

• Persistent rainfall in Central/Southeast Brazil with intensification late next week and rainfall anomaly 50-100 mm above normal/10 days
• Local flooding in Goias/Minas Gerais may impact developing corn/soybeans, as well as coffee harvest and production
• Dry conditions in the South (10-day deficits 20-30 mm below normal) though lack of abnormal heat and adequate soil moisture reserves should mitigate the impact on corn and soybean
• EC 45-day comment: High potential for reversed precipitation pattern in mid-February with wet conditions in the South and dry in Central/SE Brazil; no sign of abnormal heat  until mid-February (low probability for Northeast)

Argentina:

• Heat with temperatures 3-5 °C above normal across the Pampas, weakening in the next week
• Dry conditions across the central and eastern Pampas, with deficits 30-40 mm below normal
• Increasing downside risks for corn in late development stages, though balanced by adequate soil moisture levels
• EC 45-day comment: High potential for prolonged dryness in the Pampas until mid-February, no sign of significant temperature anomalies
• Weather discussion: A significant 7-8 phase of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) will support high rainfall across eastern regions of Brazil through the next 10 days, with active convergence amplified by a semi-stationary cold front and ITCZ  (Intertropical Convergence Zone).

 

 

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