Global Ag News For Jan 28.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Heat wave hits Argentina, threatening crops

A period of intense heat and dry weather is stressing livestock, soybeans and particularly corn crops in Argentina, threatening to reduce yields for the 2025/26 season.

With temperatures soaring near 104°F (40°C) in recent days, the nation’s key agricultural regions are in urgent need of rain, but significant relief is not forecast until February. Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soy meal and soy oil and the third-largest supplier of corn.

“This heat wave will reduce corn yields,” said meteorologist German Heinzenknecht, adding that downward revisions to production estimates are likely, with early-planted corn being the most affected.

He noted that the core farm belt – particularly in the south of the Santa Fe province and north of the Buenos Aires province – needs 70 millimeters to 80 millimeters (2.76 to 3.15 inches) of rain.

The dry spell comes as farmers have nearly completed planting, with 93.1% of corn and 96.2% of soybeans sown, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture had previously forecast Argentina’s corn harvest at 53 million tons and its soybean harvest at 48.5 million tons.

Farmers reported visible damage.

“In the corn, you can see a lack of kernels on the cobs,” said Ignacio Bastanchuri, a farmer in Navarro, Buenos Aires province.

For farmer Javier Dominguez in nearby Suipacha, the soybean crop’s fate “depends heavily on whether it rains on Tuesday or Wednesday.”

The drought is also hurting the cattle industry by withering pastures and forage crops. Some ranchers reported sorghum yields of just 2.5 tons per hectare, well below the expected 7 tons.

However, some areas, including La Pampa province and northwestern Buenos Aires, received beneficial rains of 60 to 70 millimeters over the weekend, alleviating what grower Marcelo Rodriguez called an “infernal crisis” of high temperatures and dry conditions.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 6 1/4 in SRW, up 4 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans up 9 1/4; Soymeal up $2.80; Soyoil up 0.06.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 3 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans up 7 1/2; Soymeal down $4.40; Soyoil up 0.56.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 22 1/2 in SRW, up 22 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 10 3/4; Soybeans up 29; Soymeal down $2.60; Soyoil up 5.91.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans up 24 yuan; Soymeal up 11; Soyoil up 100; Palm oil up 122; Corn down 7 — Malaysian Palm is up 12.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 12 ringgit (+0.28%) at 4272.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 446 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 27 were: SRW Wheat up 340 contracts, HRW Wheat down 278, Corn up 2,684, Soybeans up 5,541, Soymeal down 2,027, Soyoil up 6,510.

 

IN THE WAKE OF THE HISTORIC U.S. WINTER STORM, PROLONGED COLD RISKS WILL CARRY INTO FEBRUARY

• Weather Anomaly Severity: High (continuing cold risks)
• Crops impacted: Winter Wheat
• Preferred model for the next 5 days: GFS Op
• Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: GFS Ens
• Forecast confidence: High throughout the next 15 days.
• Model Change (from previous update): Colder trend for Southeast U.S. into early February.

Brazil: Central Brazil continues to see favorable rainfall for filling soybeans throughout the week. South-central areas have been drier lately, which may be causing some stress, though showers are moving back in this week. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop though, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

Argentina: It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time, though isolated showers did fall in some areas over the weekend. Spotty showers are forecast through Wednesday. And while a front should come through this weekend with additional showers, models are going back to limited or no precipitation for the primary corn and soybean areas of the country. Soil moisture and crop conditions are low and are expected to continue falling until the weather pattern becomes more active. Occasional high temperatures this week may add to the stresses as well.

Northern Plains: Harsh cold air will be replaced by warmth throughout the week and warmer temperatures are forecast for this weekend and next week. A few clipper systems will move through, but precipitation will be rather limited overall. There may be some sneaky moderate snow on Thursday and Friday, however, as warmer air tries to move into the cold to push it out.

Central/Southern Plains: A massive winter storm left a trail of ice and snow across most of the region this weekend. Cold air remains in the region and will be reinforced by a couple of cold fronts through this weekend before temperatures eventually rise above normal next week to help melt off the snow. Some wheat areas with heavy snow cover should have some protection from the cold while other areas will see some damage. The cold will stress cattle for a while longer yet, as well.

Midwest: Clippers will continue to bring reinforcements of cold air throughout the week. Warmer temperatures are forecast to move in next week, but will take longer over areas with heavier snow cover. There is not much wheat that is exposed with low snow cover, but there are some areas that may sustain some damage.

Delta: A major winter storm pushed through the region over the weekend. Though there are issues with infrastructure, the precipitation will give a boost to local rivers. Extremely cold air in the region could lead to issues with ice jams on local rivers this week, however.

 

The player sheet for 1/27 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 soybeans, sellers of 500 soymeal, and buyers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN, SORGHUM SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 306,000 metric tons of U.S. sorghum and 110,000 tons of corn, all for shipment to unknown destinations in the current 2025/26 marketing year.
• SOFT WHEAT, DURUM WHEAT TENDERS: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat and 100,000 tons of durum wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is January 28.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday, European traders said. A new tender seeking up to 120,000 tons of wheat is expected to be issued in coming days and anticipated to close on February 3, traders said.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is January 28.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is February 3. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Jan. 23 are based on four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.079m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 25.835m bbl vs 25.739m a week ago

 

US CROP EXPORTS: Corn, Sorghum to Unknown Buyers

The US Department of Agriculture on Tuesday announces the following export sales activity on its website:

Two sales announced:

• 110,000 tons of corn to Unknown Buyers for 2025-26 marketing year
• 306,000 tons of sorghum to Unknown Buyers for 2025-26
  • This is the first flash sale of sorghum since August

 

Brazil grain cooperative Coamo projects its largest ever soy harvest for 2026

Coamo, the biggest grain cooperative in Brazil, expects its 2026 soybean harvest to be its largest ever, President Airton Galinari told Reuters on Tuesday.

Coamo also acquired four agricultural facilities for 136 million reais ($26.09 million), it announced, in a move that Galinari said is expected to raise the cooperative’s grain storage capacity by 220,000 metric tons.

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 3.23 Million Tons In January – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 3.23 MILLION TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 3.79 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.78 MILLION TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 1.82 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 3.39 MILLION TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 3.45 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

China Clears Australian Canola Cargo, Reviving Stalled Flows

An initial Australian canola cargo has cleared inspection in China, raising hopes that trade volumes could pick up after a lengthy halt in flows.

China has completed customs checks for at least one Australian canola cargo and is expected to crush the oilseed this week, according to people familiar with the matter. It is among at least two shipments that arrived in Chinese ports in recent weeks.

The inspection took longer than usual, said the people, who asked not to be identified as they were not authorized to talk to the media. The shipments were the first brought in from Australia in several years.

The national customs office, as well as a local customs office in Guangxi region where the cargo is expected to be crushed, did not answer calls seeking comment outside normal business hours.

Australia is the world’s second-biggest exporter of canola — also known as rapeseed — but has been shut out of China’s market since 2020 due to so-called phytosanitary concerns, which can include plant disease. That appeared to shift last year, when the country booked several trial cargoes of Australian canola following a trade fallout with Canada, typically the nation’s top supplier.

However, Chinese importers have also resumed purchases of Canadian canola this month, after Beijing and Ottawa reached a deal to mend ties. Canada said the agreement includes China lowering or suspending tariffs on several key agricultural products.

That had put additional attention on when the Australian cargoes would eventually clear customs and be crushed. If trade restrictions on both countries are fully eased, competition will be heightened for Chinese demand.

 

Russia Exported 41m Tons of Wheat in 2025, Minister Says (1)

Russia exported 50m tons of grain last year, Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut says at the World Grain and Pulses Forum in Dubai.

• Grain harvest in Russia in 2025 amounted to about 140m tons, including 91m tons of wheat
• Russia’s 2026 grain export potential is 55m tons
• In recent years, 78% of Russian wheat exports have been shipped to Africa and the Middle East
• Russia aims to increase total grain output to 170m tons by 2030 and boost grain exports to 80m tons
• Russia has made significant gains in pulses over the past 3 years, with output reaching 8m tons in 2025
  • Around 3m tons of pulses were exported
• Over the past 5 years, Russia has achieved self-sufficiency in soybeans and has also become an exporter
• In vegetable oils and fats, Russia supplied nearly 11m tons to global markets in 2025, including 6.7m tons of sunflower oil
• Lut has discussed cooperation in agricultural technologies, including seed production in Egypt with the country’s agriculture minister

 

SovEcon Raises Russian Wheat-Export Outlook to 45.7m Tons

SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports in the 2025-26 season by 1.1m tons to 45.7m tons, due to strong pace of shipments and higher-than-expected crop figures, it said in a note.

• Exports accelerated late last year, with November volumes hitting a record 5.2m tons and December shipments totaling 4.2m tons, the highest for that month in eight years
• Official Rosstat data put Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest at 91.4m tons, higher than SovEcon’s prior estimate of 88.8m tons, the consultancy said
• Still, “we do not expect a rapid acceleration for the rest of the season,” SovEcon head Andrey Sizov said in the note. “A large share of stocks is located far from ports, while a strong ruble and flat FOB prices remain a headwind”
• It also doesn’t expect Russia’s grain-export quota — due to take effect in mid-February — to materially constrain shipments
• SovEcon also issued its first wheat export outlook for the 2026-27 season, projecting 39.6m tons
  • The estimate reflects tighter supply amid a smaller expected crop of 83.8m tons, it said

 

Russian Grain Exports Face Higher Logistics Costs: Kommersant

Russia’s wheat export supply chain is getting more expensive as grain has to travel farther to Black Sea ports after a weaker harvest in southern regions has pushed up rail-car leasing and delivery costs through 2026, Kommersant reports.

• Grain-hopper lease rates for Azov–Black Sea ports are projected to average RUB 3,300/day in 1Q and climb by 22% by year-end
• Average rail haul distance hit 1,400 km in 4Q, about 40% above the long-term norm
• With the Russian south’s 2025 grain output down 8.9% y/y, more export volumes are coming from central Black Earth region, Volga region, and Siberia, further from ports, squeezing exporter margins

 

Ukraine shows first indicative prices for 2026 rapeseed harvest, farmers union says

The first indicative prices for new Ukrainian 2026 rapeseed harvest are in the range of $510-$520 per metric ton CPT port (Carriage Paid To) Black Sea, versus $540-$550 at the end of January, leading Ukrainian farmers union UAC said on Wednesday.

Ukraine is a major European rapeseed grower and exporter. The country harvested around 3.7 million tons of rapeseed in 2024 but the harvest fell to 3.3 million tons in 2025 mostly due to unfavourable weather.

UAC said that rapeseed exports from Ukraine had totalled 1.52 million tons so far the 2025/26 July-June season as of January 26, against almost 3 million tons in the same period in 2024/25.

Lower export volumes were linked to virtually halted rapeseed shipments at the beginning of the season due to the introduction of a 10% export duty and legal uncertainties regarding the collection of the duty.

APK-Inform agriculture consultancy has said Ukraine is likely to export a total of 2.2 million tons of rapeseed on 2025/26 against 3.1 million tons in 2024/25.

APK-Inform forecasts the 2026 rapeseed harvest at 3.9 million tones with exports of 2.96 million tons in 2026/27.

 

Indonesia 2025 Palm Oil Exports 24.75M Tons: Intertek

Indonesia’s full-year palm oil exports totaled 24.75m tons, according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Crude palm oil 2.24m tons
• RBD palm olein exports 10.1m tons
• RBD palm oil exports 4.75m tons
• Palm oil sales to European Union 3.35m tons
• Palm oil sales to the Indian subcontinent 6.99m tons
• Palm oil sales to China 4.18m tons

 

House Democrats Seek Representation on E15 Biofuels Council

Five US House Democrats wrote a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson requesting “fair and equal representation” on the newly formed E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council, which focuses on guidelines for higher-ethanol gasoline.

• “A lack of representation of House Democrats on the Council would undermine its ability to produce a durable, bipartisan solution,” Democrats said in the letter
• Letter is signed by Nikki Budzinski (Illinois), Sharice Davids (Kansas), Haley Stevens (Michigan), Eric Sorensen (Illinois) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (Michigan)
  • NOTE: Lawmakers had been working to pass a measure allowing year-round sales of ethanol-blended E15 gasoline as part of the latest government funding package. The amendment was scrapped last week in a blow to ethanol producers and large refineries who had been pushing for the reform

 

South Africa 2026 Corn Plantings Seen 3% Higher Than in 2025

South African farmers will likely plant 3% more corn this year relative to 2025, the Crop Estimates Committee says.

• Growers will probably sow 2.67 million hectares with corn, it says in a statement; the area planted with the white variety, used locally to produce a staple food known as pap, will probably be 2.8% bigger at 1.64 million hectares while that for the yellow variety – which is favored as animal feed – will be 3.3% bigger at 1.03 million hectares
• The crops body cut its estimate for wheat output in the 2025 harvest by 2.7% to 1.93 million tons from its prior forecast; production at that level would be 0.1% bigger than a year earlier

 

Russia targets seeds market as traditional export customers boost grains production

• Grain importers strive to ensure food security
• Russia can offer seeds, technologies
• Russia still wants to boost grain exports by 2030
• Seeks to diversify trade routes

Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, will target global markets with its seeds and technologies as its grain markets are expected to shrink with other countries raising production, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said on Tuesday.

She said that Russia was already discussing with Egypt, its main wheat customer, how to use Russian seeds and technologies to increase production there and help it to strengthen the country’s food security.

“We understand that such a task will sooner or later be faced by any country in our world. Therefore, it is no longer enough to limit ourselves to simple trade in grain or oil and fat products,” Lut told the World Grain and Pulses Forum in Dubai.

Lut said that Russia, which historically used seeds mainly imported from Europe, had managed to raise self-sufficiency in seeds to 70% last year from 60% in 2022, and supplied domestically selected seeds to 35 countries by 2025.

“We envision the continuation of our cooperation in the development of joint technologies,” she said.

Russia is currently supplying 78% of its wheat to traditional customers in the Middle East and Africa, mostly through the terminals located on the Black Sea, Lut said.

“The overwhelming majority of countries strive to ensure their own food security not only through controlled food supplies but also through their own production,” Lut said, stressing that Russia was ready to support this drive.

“To be under the illusion or in the paradigm that Russia will always supply grain or bulk vegetable oil groups to the markets of our partner countries is truly a misconception.”

Russia nonetheless aims to raise agricultural exports by 50% by 2030, and Lut said that the country still wanted to boost its grain exports to 80 million metric tons by the same deadline, up from 53 million tons in the 2024/25 marketing season.

The official grain export forecast for the current marketing season is 50 million tons.

She said that Russia would seek to eliminate middlemen in its global grain trade and sell to end-chain customers directly, while developing new grain terminals in the Baltic and railroad supplies to the Far East.

Lut said that trade through the Black Sea terminals, Russia’s main agricultural export gateway, has not decreased despite the war in Ukraine, which she described as the “current situation”.

Russia has also been increasing supplies through the Caspian Sea, which mainly go to Iran, another major buyer of Russian wheat, describing the Caspian as “also a difficult zone”.

The overall agricultural trade shipping capacity should grow by 25% to 100 million tons by 2030, Lut said.

 

 

 

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