Global Ag News For Jan 30.2026

TOP HEADLINES

EU cuts 2025/26 soft wheat export forecast and raises stocks projection

The European Commission on Thursday lowered its forecast for European Union exports of soft wheat, the bloc’s main cereal crop, in the current 2025/26 season to 29.5 million metric tons, down from the 31.0 million tons projected in December.

Other forecasters have also reduced their outlook for EU shipments because of strong competition, including from Argentina.

The reduced export forecast drove an increase in the Commission’s projection of EU soft wheat stocks at the end of the season on June 30, now expected at 13.0 million tons, up from the 11.7 million tons forecast last month.

In contrast, the Commission raised its outlook for EU barley exports this season to 11.0 million tons from 10.1 million tons previously and cut its forecast for 2025/26 barley stocks to 4.2 million tons from 6.1 million tons.

The EU has benefited from brisk barley demand overseas, leading to an unusual premium for barley over wheat prices.

In maize, the Commission nudged up its estimate of EU usable production of the cereal this season to 58.2 million tons from 57.8 million tons, while keeping unchanged its forecast of 2025/26 EU maize imports at 18.8 million tons.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/2 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans down 7; Soymeal down $0.50; Soyoil down 0.55.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 11 3/4 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal down $4.60; Soyoil down 0.36.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 36 in SRW, up 32 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 12; Soybeans up 17 3/4; Soymeal down $3.90; Soyoil up 4.92.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans down 19 yuan; Soymeal down 22; Soyoil down 42; Palm oil down 50; Corn up 4 — Malaysian Palm is down 88.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 88 ringgit (-2.04%) at 4229.

There were changes in registrations (-145 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 301 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 28 were: SRW Wheat up 4,421 contracts, HRW Wheat down 503, Corn up 20,660, Soybeans up 12,353, Soymeal down 246, Soyoil down 3,028.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 29 JANUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: A weekend winter storm will drop 4-8+ inches of snowfall on the Carolinas, adding to impacts that were already ongoing from cold/ice over the last week though crops will be minimally affected
• SOUTH AMERICA: Moderate heat risks will shift from northern Brazil in the next 5 days southward after that, adding to crop stress from dry conditions in the south
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Dry weather into the foreseeable future across Thailand could start to negatively impact sugarcane development
• EUROPE: Cold risks will expand again across Northern Europe over the next couple weeks with downside risks to winter crops in Poland, while Southern Europe will remain milder
• TELECONNECTIONS: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will remain in its negative phase into mid-Feburary, supporting cold risks across North America and Europe/Eurasia

 

Brazil: Central Brazil continues to see favorable rainfall for filling soybeans, though harvest is increasing and the rain is becoming less helpful in that regard. South-central areas have been drier lately, which may be causing some stress, though showers are moving back in and will continue into next week. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop though, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

Argentina: It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time, and spotty showers that moved through since the weekend have missed a lot of primary corn and soybean areas. While a front should come through this weekend with additional showers, models are calling for limited or no precipitation for the primary corn and soybean areas. Soil moisture and crop conditions are low and are expected to continue falling until the weather pattern becomes more active. Models are suggestive of some beneficial, though sporadic rainfall, later next week, but that is highly uncertain.

Northern Plains: A burst of cold air moving down through the Dakotas is clashing with warmer air trying to move into Montana, creating a burst of snow across the middle of the region that could be moderate for Thursday and Friday. Another clipper moving through this weekend will flush out the cold air and bring in both a burst of mixed precipitation and warmer air that will stick around for most of next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Cold air will be reinforced by one more cold front moving through on Friday, which continues the cold this weekend before temperatures eventually rise above normal next week to help melt off the snow. Some wheat areas with heavy snow cover should have some protection from the cold while other areas will see some damage. The cold will stress cattle for a while longer yet, as well.

Midwest: Clippers continue to bring more cold air through the weekend. There is not much wheat that is exposed with low snow cover, but there are some areas that may sustain some damage. A clipper moving through Sunday and Monday will usher in some warmer air for next week, but will take longer over areas with heavier snow cover across the south and east. Those in the far east like Ohio may not see temperatures rise above normal before more cold air moves in next weekend.

Delta: Recent heavy precipitation is helping to raise water levels on the Mississippi and local rivers. There are issues with infrastructure from the weekend’s big winter storm, and extremely cold air in the region could lead to issues with ice jams on local rivers.

 

The player sheet for 1/29 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, buyers of 4,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers in the tender is February 4.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is February 3.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soy, Corn and Wheat for Week Ending Jan. 22

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Jan. 22, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 233k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Japan with 365k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending Jan. 22

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Jan. 22, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 28.3k tons of the 56k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

US Sold 819K Tons of Soybeans Week of Jan. 22; 1.65M of Corn

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Jan. 22.

• Corn sales fell to 1,649k tons vs 4,011k in previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 580k tons vs 632k in previous week
• Soybean sales fell to 819k tons vs 2,455k in previous week

 

USDA December soybean crush seen at 230.4 million bushels, analysts say

U.S. soybean crushers likely processed 6.914 million short tons, or 230.4 million bushels, of soybeans in December, according to analysts surveyed ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Monday.

If that average of estimates gathered from seven analysts is realized, the crush would be up 4.5% from the 220.5 million bushels crushed in November and up 5.9% from the December 2024 crush of 217.7 million bushels. It would also be the second largest monthly crush on record, behind only the October 2025 crush of 236.3 million bushels.

Crush estimates ranged from 227.0 million to 234.5 million bushels, with a median of 230.0 million bushels.

The USDA’s next monthly Fats and Oils report is scheduled for release at 2 p.m. CST (2000 GMT) on Monday, February 2.

The U.S. soy crush has grown in recent years as processors expanded several soy plants and built new ones to capitalize on strong demand from biofuel makers for soybean oil. Crushers also seized upon rising supplies from a bumper U.S. soy harvest to push daily crush rates above 7 million bushels for a third straight month in December, capping a historic year for the industry with more than 2.5 billion bushels processed into meal and oil, according to analyst estimates.

U.S. soyoil stocks as of December 31 were estimated at 2.279 billion pounds, based on the average of estimates from four analysts. Estimates ranged from 2.250 billion to 2.300 billion pounds, with a median of 2.283 billion pounds.

The estimate reflects a 5.5% increase from stocks totaling 2.164 billion pounds at the end of November and a 35.1% jump from stocks of 1.687 billion pounds at the end of December 2024, according to USDA data.

The National Oilseed Processors Association said its members, which account for nearly all soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 224.991 million bushels in December, the second highest monthly total ever, while end-of-month oil stocks held by its members swelled to a 19-month peak of 1.642 billion pounds.

 

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates Jan. 29: Exchange (Table)

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2025-26 soybean and corn planting estimates maintained
• Corn crop 97.2% complete, Soybeans 99.5%

 

Argentina awaits crucial rains to protect grain yields, despite recent rainfall boost

KEY CONTEXT

• The Exchange estimated Argentina’s soybean harvest area at 17.6 million hectares for the 2025/26 season, down from 18.4 million dedicated to the crop the previous season.
• The harvest area for corn is estimated at 7.8 million hectares versus the 7.1 million, compared with the previous season.
• In its weekly crop report, the Exchange said the recent rains had “a more significant impact on late plantings.”
• More widespread rains are still needed in the center and south of the country during critical development stages, the Exchange added.
• Farmers have planted 99.5% of soy and 97.2% of corn so far.
• The Rosario Grains Exchange separately estimated Argentina’s corn harvest area for the 2025/26 season at 62 million tonnes and soy at 47 million tonnes.
• Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soy meal and soy oil, and is world’s third-largest for corn.

 

EU’s 2025-26 Grain Output Forecast Rises Slightly on Corn Crops

The EU’s total grain production is now estimated at 287.4m tons in the 2025-26 season, up from a December forecast of 287.2m tons, the European Commission said in its latest outlook.

• The soft-wheat forecast was lowered to 134.2m tons, down from 134.4m tons
• The barley outlook was kept the same, at 55.7m tons
• The corn crop was raised to 58.2m tons, from 57.8m tons

 

Australian canola down but not out of China after Xi’s deal with Canada

• China buying canola from Canada again after trade war hiatus
• Australia shipping to China for first time since 2020
• Australian prices competitive with Canadian
• Canada likely to take back lion’s share of China market

A trade deal between China and Canada has damaged Australia’s hopes of becoming China’s main supplier of canola, but the Pacific nation’s access to the world’s biggest oilseed importer has significantly improved, traders and analysts said.

China has resumed purchases of Canadian canola in the last two weeks after a months-long hiatus triggered by a trade war.

Rival exporter Australia has been positioning itself to capture a share of the Chinese market, having sold around 500,000 metric tons to Chinese buyers after overcoming biosecurity hurdles that had previously blocked its access.

“Even if they do keep buying Canadian canola, China is now buying our canola for the first time in five years,” said Dennis Voznesenski, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney.

“Being back in China, even if not exclusively, is a good thing for Australian canola demand and prices,” he said.

Chinese buyers have snapped up as much as 650,000 tons of Canadian seed since Beijing and Ottawa struck an initial trade deal earlier this month that will slash tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and Canadian canola, traders have told Reuters.

China imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties of 75.8% on Canadian canola in August, largely halting shipments and idling its crushing industry. This month’s deal should drop total duties on canola to around 15%.

Canadian and Australian prices will now influence trading decisions, dealers said.

“Prices hold the key,” said Stefan Meyer, who leads a trading team at brokers StoneX in Sydney.

There was little difference between the landed cost of Australian and Canadian canola in China, he said. “Australian exporters are matching the (Canadian) prices or offering slightly lower.”

Canadian canola seed is being offered in China at $551 a ton for March shipment, including cost and freight (C&F), compared with $550 a ton for Australian canola, two trade sources said. A third said Australian supply was $5-$10 cheaper than Canadian.

Canada, which grows much more canola than Australia, will likely retake the biggest share of China’s market, traders said.

“Domestic companies remain more inclined to purchase Canadian canola, having relied on it for years due to its large production and steady supply,” said Zhang Deqiang, an analyst at Sublime China Information.

But Australian exporters remain upbeat.

“We can compete on price for the volume and we would win demand if competitive,” said a source at an international trading firm in Australia.

This is “a significant improvement from not having any access to the market at all,” he said.

The first few Australian shipments are part of a trial to prove that seed from the country does not risk spreading a fungal plant disease called blackleg in China.

Two cargoes of about 60,000 tons have arrived so far from Australia. One, which arrived in China in January, is set to be crushed this week, according to traders with knowledge of the matter.

At least two more are due to sail in February, according to shipping data compiled by Bendigo Bank Agribusiness.

 

Indonesia Raises Feb. CPO Reference Price to $918.47/Ton

Trade ministry raises crude palm oil reference price to $918.47 per ton for February, from $915.64 per ton in January, according to a decree.

• Reference price keeps CPO export tax at $74 per ton
• NOTE: Exporters must also pay additional CPO levy of 10% of the reference price

 

Bolivia Govt Lifts Restrictions on Soybean Exports

Bolivia’s government lifted restrictions on soybean grain exports, Productive Development Minister Oscar Mario Justiniano said in a statement on Wednesday.

• Domestic supply will be guaranteed, the minister said
• The government also lifted price controls on soybean byproducts in the domestic market, except for cooking oil

 

 Crop Trader Solaris Eyes Brazil in Expansion Push Beyond Wheat

Crops trader Solaris Commodities is looking to expand into Brazil, Africa, and the Middle East as it seeks to grow its business beyond wheat and move further into logistics and processing.

A top trader of Russian wheat, Solaris shifted its base from Geneva to Dubai in 2022 after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine made it harder to access financing, with Swiss banks growing cautious about Russian commodities even though agricultural products don’t attract Western sanctions.

The company is now positioning itself as an integrated supply-chain investor, according to Oleg Pankratov, general manager and head of investments for the Middle East.

While it’s also expanding its footprint in the Middle East and Africa, agricultural powerhouse Brazil is central to the company’s ambitions.

“We normally come very high in the rankings in wheat, where we’ve been specializing,” Pankratov said on the sidelines of the Intercontinental Commodity Exchange summit in Dubai. With access to Brazil, the firm wants to expand and become “a significant player” in other commodities.

Last year, Solaris bought the majority stake in grains trader Humberg Agribrazil to enter the Brazilian corn and soybean trading markets and secure access to port logistics infrastructure. It has also acquired a terminal in São Francisco do Sul in southern Brazil and will expand it, Pankratov said.

“We invest in the supply chain,” Pankratov said. “We have transportation in Kazakhstan, we have a terminal in Brazil, a terminal in Egypt. We have a processing facility in Oman. All of this gives us stable revenues.”

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 568k tons in the week ending Jan. 24 from 447k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 11.5% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 37.3% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $24.34 per short ton, an increase of $2.79 from the previous week

 

 

 

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