Global Ag News For July 11.2025

TOP HEADLINES

US again halts cattle imports from Mexico over flesh-eating screwworms

• Screwworm pest has advanced closer to US border
• Mexican President Sheinbaum called US decision “exaggerated”
• Mexican Beef Producers Association regrets halt

The flesh-eating livestock pest New World screwworm has advanced closer to the U.S. border with Mexico, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said, prompting Washington to block imports of Mexican cattle just days after it allowed them to resume at a port of entry in Arizona.

Screwworms are parasitic flies whose females lay eggs in wounds on warm-blooded animals, usually livestock and wild animals. Once the eggs hatch, hundreds of screwworm larvae use their sharp mouths to burrow through living flesh, eventually killing their host if left untreated.

Mexico reported a new case of screwworm about 370 miles south of the U.S. border in Ixhuatlan de Madero, Veracruz, on Tuesday, the USDA said in a statement late on Wednesday. The agency ordered the closure of livestock trade through southern ports of entry effective immediately.

“Closing the border isn’t just justified, it’s essential,” said Bill Bullard, CEO of U.S. cattle producers’ group R-CALF USA.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum called the decision “exaggerated,” saying it was prompted by a single new case.

“It is an exaggerated measure in the face of a situation that is under control,” Sheinbaum said at her morning press conference on Thursday.

At its peak in late June, Mexico registered 480 cases. According to the latest data from the Agriculture Ministry, that number has dropped below 400 as Mexico continues to target the pest.

“We hope that they will reopen very soon,” Sheinbaum added, even as the United States expresses concerns about the disease approaching Mexico’s northern border.

An infestation in the United States could further tighten supplies of cattle, which are at their lowest levels in decades, and also endanger other livestock and household pets.

The USDA suspended Mexican cattle imports in May after screwworm was detected about 700 miles from the U.S. border at farms in Oaxaca and Veracruz, Mexico.

The agency said last week that it would resume imports on Monday at a port of entry in Douglas, Arizona, as part of a phased reopening of the border because screwworms had not been moving north in Mexico.

Now, the USDA needs to see more progress in combating the pest in Veracruz and nearby Mexican states to reopen livestock ports on the southern border, Secretary Brooke Rollins said.

Screwworms were eradicated from the United States in the 1960s when researchers released sterilized male screwworm flies that mate with wild female screwworms to produce infertile eggs.

The USDA said last month that it would build a sterile fly dispersal facility in Hidalgo County, Texas, and consider a sterile fly production facility.

The agency should immediately begin work on a U.S. sterile fly production facility, said Colin Woodall, CEO of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association industry group.

“The New World screwworm’s northward movement jeopardizes the safety of American agriculture,” he said. “We cannot wait any longer.”

The Mexican Beef Producers Association said in a statement that it regrets the halt while Mexico’s government has indicated that it has been working on the release of sterile flies.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/4 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 1 1/4; Soymeal up $0.80; Soyoil down 0.34.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 5 1/2 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, down 16 in HRS; Corn is down 21 3/4; Soybeans down 36 1/2; Soymeal down $6.10; Soyoil down 1.54.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 13 in SRW, up 3 1/4 in HRW, up 10 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 10 1/4; Soybeans down 14 1/2; Soymeal down $3.20; Soyoil up 0.38.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 0.2% in SRW, down 8.1% in HRW, up 4.6% in HRS; Corn is down 11.2%; Soybeans up 1.4%; Soymeal down 12.7%; Soyoil up 34.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 12 yuan; Soymeal up 28; Soyoil up 42; Palm oil up 58; Corn down 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 27.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 27 ringgit (+0.65%) at 4173.

There were changes in registrations (4 Oats, 20 Soymeal). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 78 Corn; 1,309 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 1,876 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 10 were: SRW Wheat up 4,258 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,297, Corn down 4,834, Soybeans up 13,588, Soymeal up 3,213, Soyoil down 855.

  

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 10 JULY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cool conditions remain expected across much of North America during the 6-10 day period, though warmth could return thereafter
• SOUTH AMERICA: Well above normal precipitation is expected across the Pampas region of Argentina during the next 10 days
• BLACK SEA: Anomalous warmth will persist across most of the Black Sea region during the next 10-15 days, coupled with regional dryness in Ukraine
• AFRICA: Dry conditions are expected across most cocoa producing areas of West Africa during the next two weeks
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to remain near a dormant level during the next two weeks, having diminished impacts on global weather patterns during that time

 

Northern Plains:. After showers move out on Friday, a few days break of mainly dry weather is forecast until another system moves through Tuesday and Wednesday. This system may have some more widepsread precipitation and temperatures behind it will fall dramatically for a few days.

Central/Southern Plains: Multiple fronts are forecast to move into the region through next week, which will keep the region busier than normal for summer as corn and soybeans head into pollination. Some much cooler temperatures are forecast behind one of the fronts mid-late next week, keeping overall stress low as well.

Midwest: Though showers and thunderstorms are occurring ahead of it, another system will move through Friday through the weekend, and another will move through in the middle of next week, keeping the region busy with scattered showers. Some areas that are a bit dry could pick up some needed rain while others stay unfavorably wet. Temperatures remain generally mild to warm into next week but should fall below normal behind next week’s system. Most areas are in good shape as corn and soybeans head into pollination, though northern Illinois and Indiana both need rain as the dry spots in the region.

Canadian Prairies: A system will move Thursday and Friday with another on Sunday through Tuesday, but will bring scattered showers that may miss some of these drier areas. With wheat and canola in their reproductive stages, any areas that get missed by the rainfall will be hurt by the dryness. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the second system, keeping stresses down though.

 

The player sheet for 7/10 had funds: net buyers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,000 corn, buyers of 2,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 110,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for delivery to undisclosed locations in the 2025/26 marketing year that begins September 1, 2025.
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korean import group the Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased around 60,000 metric tons of soymeal to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in an international tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of wheat was assessed at $268.90 a metric ton CIF liner out
• BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase at least 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• CORN AND SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 60,000 tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending July 3, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Unknown Buyers with 305k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 894k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: South Korea with 90k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending July 3, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• China bought 8.8k tons of the 24.3k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

Brazil 2024-25 Soybean Crop Seen at 169.49M Tons: Conab

Output est. cut from 169.61m tons, Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 170.9m tons
• Yield seen lower at 3,560 kg/ha vs 3,562 kg/ha last month
• Area planted lowered to 47.615m ha vs 47.62m ha last month
• Corn production est. raised to 132m tons vs 128.3m tons
• Cotton production est. raised to 3.94m tons vs 3.91m tons

 

China’s Crops Under Threat from Heavy Rains, Heat Wave: CASDE

Weather woes in China risk hitting production of key crops including corn and cotton in the main growing regions, the country’s agriculture ministry said in a monthly report.

• Still, the agency kept its production, demand and import estimates for corn, cotton, soybeans and edible oils for the 2025-26 season unchanged for now versus June
• Heavy rains could flood some farm fields in the northern region in the next 10 days, while low precipitation might disrupt agriculture production in some other areas, the ministry said in its China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report
• Cotton is also under risk from heat this month in Xinjiang, the top growing region
• Domestic demand for soybeans is weakening as high temperatures reduce the shelf life of products processed from the oilseed
• Heavy rains could facilitate disease among peanuts in the north, and drought in Guangxi region has hurt sugarcane crops in the top producer

 

Argentina wheat crop gets boost from midweek rains

Recent rainfall in central Argentina has improved conditions for the country’s 2025/26 wheat crop, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday, as planting of the important crop nears completion.

Argentina is a major global wheat exporter, and according to the exchange’s weekly crop report, farmers have already planted 91% of the season’s estimated 6.7 million hectares (16.6 mln acres).

“In the hours prior to the publication of this report, rain was recorded in a strip stretching from central San Luis province to central Buenos Aires province, which is expected to improve soil moisture reserves,” the exchange said.

The harvest for the 2024/25 corn season, meanwhile, advanced rapidly last week due to dry weather in regions where the grain remains, the exchange reported, adding that 70.4% of the area planted has already been harvested.

Argentina is the world’s third-largest corn exporter and its 2024/25 season production is expected to reach 49 million tons.

The 2024/25 soybean harvest in Argentina concluded last week, with a final production of 50.2 million tons, according to data from the exchange.

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 11.93 Million Tns In July – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 11.93 MILLION TNS IN JULY VERSUS 9.6 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.19 MILLION TNS IN JULY VERSUS 2.01 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.34 MILLION TNS IN JULY VERSUS 4.70 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO

 

Ukraine Grain Harvest Reaches 2.6M Tons as of July 11: Ministry

Ukraine has harvested 2.6m tons of grain and legumes as of Friday, the country’s agriculture ministry said on its website.

• NOTE: That compares with about 8.4m tons of wheat, barley and peas harvested at a similar time a year earlier
• Grain crops have been harvested from 919,900 hectares so far
• The total includes:
  • About 1.2m tons of wheat, down 78% y/y
  • About 1.2m tons of barley, down 52% y/y
• Rapeseed harvest stands at 290,100 tons

 

Western Australia Set for Smaller Wheat Crop After Poor Rainfall

Western Australia’s wheat production is expected to decline this season following poor rainfall across some regions, according to an industry group, which issued its first estimates for the year.

Wheat output is forecast at 9.4 million tons for 2025-26, compared with around 12.5 million tons in the previous season, a report from the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia shows. The state is the country’s largest producer of wheat, which is exported to Asia and the Middle East.

The decline is primarily due to poor rain in regions usually responsible for the bulk of the wheat harvest, said Michael Lamond, an agronomist and the author of the report. There has been some improvements in the weather, but the state may struggle to meet the current output estimates, he added.

“The soil was dusty, dry,” Lamond said in an interview. “You pick it up and there was no moisture in it.”

The country is one of the world’s largest wheat exporters, with about 95% of the Western Australian harvest sent overseas, according to the state’s Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development. Lamond said some farmers had planted more barley than wheat to take advantage of higher prices.

GIWA estimates the overall grain crop will be around 19.3 million tons this season. However, the planting season only concluded in June, and forecasts are likely to change before the harvests starts around late October.

 

Russia orders measures to boost agriculture exports after wheat sales fall in July

• Wheat exports in July fall to lowest since 2008
• Deputy PM wants to ensure agriculture exports stay on target
• IKAR expects exports to stabilise in one week
• Traders say wheat supplies in Black Sea ports have been slow

The Russian government on Thursday ordered measures to boost agriculture exports after international sales of wheat fell to their lowest since 2008, while traders are saying the new crop has been slow to come to the Black Sea terminals.

The Sovecon consultancy estimates July wheat exports at 2.0 million-2.5 million tons, compared with 3.67 million tons in July last year. Rail carrier Rusagrotrans estimates July exports at 2.4 million-2.6 million tons, citing slow harvesting and low carry-over stocks.

The government said in a statement Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev, who oversees the sector, had told agriculture officials “to take the necessary measures in a timely manner to ensure positive export dynamics”.

President Vladimir Putin has ordered the government to increase exports by 50% by 2030. Patrushev asked officials to ensure that exports stay on target.

Russia’s Deputy Agriculture Minister Andrei Razin said last week the harvesting campaign had kicked off later this year due to weather conditions, with crops collected from an area 60% smaller than in 2024.

Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, told Reuters that wheat exports will stabilise in a week as new-crop wheat will come to the market. IKAR projects July wheat exports at two million tons in July.

Rylko said exports in July 2025 were the lowest for the period since 2008, before Russia became the world’s biggest seller of wheat.

Grain traders said that farmers, suffering from low profitability of growing wheat due to low global prices and the strong rouble, were withholding their wheat for now in expectation of higher prices.

“Farmers are in such a position that they will fight for each rouble in this season,” said one trader, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Traders said there was already a shortage of wheat in Black Sea grain terminals.

“Grain is arriving at the port two to three weeks later than exporters expected, due to delays in harvesting, lengthy procedures for obtaining declarations, and low prices,” another trader said.

“Right now, it’s a classic short squeeze. The goods have been sold, but there’s nothing to load onto the ships,” the second trader said. Some traders said shippers have started to demand demurrage – a charge for the extended use of services – for keeping ships empty in ports.

Russia’s grain export tax, a major irritant for farmers, fell to zero last week due to weaker market prices, a move seen as potentially helping exports.

Russia is expecting its grain harvest to rise 4% to 135 million tons in 2025 despite drought in some regions, and sees exports rising to 45 million tons of wheat in the current season from 44 million tons in the last.

IKAR estimated last year’s exports at 40.8 million tons, with exports to Egypt estimated at 8.2 million tons, to Turkey at 3.1 million tons, to Bangladesh at 2.8 million tons, to Algeria at 1.7 million tons, and to Israel at 1.6 million tons.

 

US Tariffs May Weigh on Margins, Soybean Crush, Beef Markets

The newly announced US tariffs on Brazilian goods could raise costs and strain beef markets, while opening space for regional competitors. Fertilizer prices are already rising on Middle East tensions, and trade friction may further pressure imports amid currency devaluation — just as the input-purchasing window narrows. On the export front, beef is among the most exposed, as US processors had turned to Brazil to offset supply gaps expected to persist through 2026. Steeper costs could weigh on US packers’ margins such as Tyson Foods and JBS, while also challenging Brazilian exporters like Marfrig and Minerva. Discounted Brazilian cattle may help ease pressure and sustain flows.

Higher trade barriers might also limit Brazil’s ability to expand soybean crushing and compete with Argentina, which may absorb the market share.

 

China wheat output was reduced to about last year’s level because of a late-season drought.

2025/26 CHINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 139.94 MILLION TONS, DOWN 1.2% from last update

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its 2025 Summer Grain Production report on July 10, estimating wheat production at 138.16 million tons, which is nearly identical to last year’s figure of 138.22 million tons reported in its 2024 Summer Grain Production report. The final wheat estimate for the previous year was 140.01 million tons, according to the NBS Grain Production report published on December 13, 2024.

After review of the province-level data in the Summer Grain Production reports, we adjusted China wheat yield estimates toward the lower range of our model outputs, particularly in Henan and Jiangsu, where severe drought affected wheat production. As a result, total 2025/26 China wheat production is reduced by 1.2% to 139.94 million tons, slightly below last year’s 140.01 million tons.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 781k tons in the week ending July 5 from 577k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 53.4% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 17.2% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $13.25 per short ton, an increase of $0.68 from the previous week

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending July 8: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending July 8, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Drought in soybean areas rose to 9% vs 8%
• Spring wheat crops in drought rose by 6 points to 35%

 

 

 

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