Global Ag News For July 17.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trump Says Coca-Cola Agrees to Use Cane Sugar for Coke in US

President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that Coca-Cola Co. has agreed to use cane sugar in Coke beverages sold in the US.

“I have been speaking to Coca-Cola about using REAL Cane Sugar in Coke in the United States, and they have agreed to do so,” Trump said. “I’d like to thank all of those in authority at Coca-Cola.”

Coca-Cola didn’t immediately return a message seeking comment. The company already sells a version of Mexico Coke that contains cane sugar.

Coke’s original soda currently contains high-fructose corn syrup, a sweetener made from corn, according to the company’s website. The syrup is commonly used in packaged goods because it is more shelf stable, cheaper and sweeter than regular sugar, according to the Cleveland Health Clinic. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has said “high-fructose corn syrup is everywhere” and contributing to making Americans unhealthy.

US cane sugar production in the 2025-26 season is expected to account for roughly 30% of US sugar supply, according to the US Department of Agriculture. The remainder of American sugar comes from sugar beets, as well as imports from Mexico and other countries.

Trump famously drinks Diet Coke, which is artificially sweetened with aspartame. Coca-Cola Chief Executive James Quincey presented Trump with a custom bottle of Diet Coke to commemorate his inauguration earlier this year.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/4 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, up 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 3/4; Soymeal down $1.10; Soyoil up 0.26.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 6 1/4 in SRW, down 3 1/4 in HRW, down 12 in HRS; Corn is up 11; Soybeans up 12 3/4; Soymeal up $0.20; Soyoil up 1.01.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3/4 in SRW, down 5 1/4 in HRW, down 19 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans down 7 1/4; Soymeal down $6.90; Soyoil up 2.19.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.3% in SRW, down 6.8% in HRW, up 1.0% in HRS; Corn is down 11.7%; Soybeans up 1.5%; Soymeal down 12.6%; Soyoil up 37.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans up 28 yuan; Soymeal up 33; Soyoil up 20; Palm oil up 44; Corn down 8 — Malaysian Palm is down 16.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 16 ringgit (-0.38%) at 4208.

There were changes in registrations (-29 Corn, -284 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 981 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 1,876 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 16 were: SRW Wheat up 5,000 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,601, Corn up 76, Soybeans up 8,888, Soymeal up 2,926, Soyoil up 1,018.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 16 JULY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: The cool-down across much of North America in the next 5 days will be short-lived, as widespread warmth returns to nearly all major crop regions in the 6-15 day period
• SOUTH AMERICA: Very dry conditions up to 50 mm below normal remain anticipated across Southern Brazil during the next 10-15 days
• BLACK SEA: Heavy rainfall is expected in western Ukraine and Central Russia during the next 10+ days
• TROPICS: There is a 40% chance of tropical development along the U.S. Gulf Coast during the next 7 days
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Pacific/North America (PNA) pattern is expected to remain in a negative phase event through the end of the week, before potentially rising into positive territory late this month

 

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS COULD DOMINATE THE NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER PATTERN IN AUGUST

By Ed Whalen, Research Specialist, Weather, LSEG

What to Watch:

• High confidence for hot and dry weather across most crop regions next month
• Some pockets of wet weather possible, but less certain

 

Northern Plains: A system produced widespread heavy rainfall and some severe weather over the last couple of days, with showers ending here on Wednesday. Another system will move through Thursday night and Friday and more are in the pipeline for next week, keeping the pattern busy. Temperatures will be generally seasonable, though some much cooler air is in place for the next couple of days. The active weather pattern will bring scattered showers, missing some areas that need some heavier rain, but the pattern is overall favorable for developing crops.

Central/Southern Plains: Recent rainfall has been favorable for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans for most of the region. A front passing through over the next couple of days will continue to bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures continue to be seasonable and non-stressful, but will be rising this weekend into next week. That will lead to drier conditions across the south, but Nebraska may be close enough to get in on some of the busier pattern across the north. Drying conditions could become hazardous if they last too long.

Midwest: Very few spots in the region are doing poorly with soil moisture as corn and soybeans get more into pollination. There are some though, and northern Indiana is the current location to watch the closest. The region stays busy with systems and disturbances continuing showers and thunderstorms across the region through this week and probably next week as well. Temperatures are milder through the weekend, but should increase next week with a burst of heat stressing out any areas that have not received much rainfall. Otherwise, good weather conditions continue in most areas through the end of July.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Isolated showers continue across the region through next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal for the most part, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. The region will also watch the Gulf of Mexico as a small disturbance could become tropical and bring showers into the region on Thursday and Friday across the south.

Canadian Prairies: A system brought some good rainfall to much of Alberta and western Saskatchewan on Monday. While the weather pattern stays active with more systems moving through later this week, weekend, and next week, showers are forecast to stay scattered, leaving some areas too dry and significantly reducing production as more of the wheat and canola crops get into reproductive and filling stages. The driest areas continue to be in Manitoba.

 

The player sheet for 7/16 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,000 corn, buyers of 10,000 soybeans, and buyers of 1,000 soymeal.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 120,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to undisclosed destinations in the 2025/26 marketing year that begins September 1, 2025.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 89,650 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S. in a tender
• FEED WHEAT TENDER PASSED: A group of importers in Thailand is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender for about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat which closed on Wednesday
• BARLEY TENDER PASSED: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase at least 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• CORN AND SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 60,000 tons of soymeal.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending July 10.

• Corn est. range 900k – 2,000k tons, with avg of 1,383k
• Soybean est. range 450k – 1,000k tons, with avg of 733k

 

Argentina grains exchange raises 2024/25 soybean forecast

Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange on Wednesday increased its estimate for the country’s 2024/25 soybean harvest to 49.5 million metric tons, compared to its previous forecast of 48.5.

The grains exchange sees the country’s 2025/26 wheat production at 20 million metric tons, down from a previous 20.7 estimate.

 

French Soft-Wheat Exports Seen Up 38% in 2025-26 Season: AgriMer

France’s soft-wheat exports are estimated to reach 14.32m tons in the 2025-26 season that began July 1, crops office FranceAgriMer said in a report Wednesday.

• That compares with an estimated 10.36m tons in the 2024-25 season
• Of the total for 2025-26, exports outside the EU are seen more than doubling y/y to 7.5m tons
• Stockpiles projection for the 2025-26 season seen rising to 3.87m tons from 2.33m tons forecast for 2024-2025

BARLEY:

• Export outlook for 2025-26 seen at 5.57m tons, up from 5.26m tons in the previous season
• Stockpiles seen at 1.64m tons from 932k tons in the previous season

DURUM WHEAT:

• Export outlook for 2025-26 seen at 665k tons from 656k tons in the previous season
• Stockpiles seen at 163k tons from 122k tons in the previous season

 

SovEcon Raises Russia Wheat Crop Estimate on Better Conditions

SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat production in the 2025-26 season to 83.6m tons, from a June forecast of 83m tons, it said in a note.

• That’s due to improved crop conditions in the Central region
  • Output in the Central region is now seen at 19.8m tons, up from 18.5m tons
• Wheat crop forecast for the South was slightly lowered to 31.1m tons from 31.5m tons due to weaker yield expectations in Rostov and Krasnodar
• “The market may have been overly optimistic about the Russian wheat crop earlier this season — and could now be underestimating it”: Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon
• Total grain crop forecast has also been raised to 130.5m tons, up from a June forecast of 129.5m tons
  • The barley crop is now estimated at 18m tons, up 0.5m tons on improved prospects for spring barley and a slightly larger planted area
  • Corn forecast was unchanged at 14.3m tons

 

Australia nears breakthrough canola deal with China, sources say

• Australia nears deal with China to ship five trial canola cargoes
• Shipments will total 150,000-250,000 tons, industry sources say
• Phytosanitary rules have restricted Australia’s canola exports to China
• Australian canola prices may rise with increased Chinese demand

Canberra is close to an agreement with Beijing that would allow Australian suppliers to ship five trial canola cargoes to China, sources familiar with the matter said, a move towards ending a years-long freeze in the trade.

China, the world’s largest canola importer, sources nearly all of its imports from Canada but those supplies could be limited by an anti-dumping probe Beijing is conducting. China imposed 100% tariffs on Canadian canola meal and oil this year amid strained diplomatic ties.

Australia, the second-largest canola exporter, has been shut out of the Chinese market since 2020, mainly due to Chinese rules to stop the spread of fungal plant disease, but the trial cargoes could reopen trade and reduce Canada’s market share.

Chinese and Australian officials are finalising a framework to address Beijing’s phytosanitary requirements aimed at preventing the spread of blackleg disease, according to two Australian agriculture industry sources briefed on the negotiations.

“It looks like we’ve found a pathway that works for everyone,” said one of the sources. “Now we need to run a few ships and see if it all works.”

The five trial cargoes will be handled by trading companies once the framework is agreed, the sources said.

Two trading company sources familiar with the negotiations said the shipments would carry between 150,000 and 250,000 metric tons of Australian canola, also known as rapeseed, to China.

The sources declined to be named as they were not authorised to speak publicly on the matter.

In response to a query from Reuters, Australia’s agriculture ministry said: “This is an active and ongoing government-government discussion and details have not yet been finalised.”

China’s Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

China has bought an average of 4 million metric tons of canola, worth over $2 billion, each year for the last five years, for use in cooking oil, renewable fuels, and animal feed.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is currently visiting China, underscoring a warming of ties since his Labor government won power in 2022.

The planned shipments follow smaller test deliveries last year, when Australia exported 500 tons of canola to China in both June and July 2024, according to Australian trade data.

The negotiations have focused on addressing China’s requirement that canola shipments contain less than 1% admixture — impurities such as chaff and broken seeds – and its concerns of blackleg contamination, the two sources briefed on the talks said.

Unlike Canadian exporters, who clean their canola before shipping, Australian suppliers often exceed this limit.

Additional demand from China should lift Australian canola prices, traders said, but Australia may not be able to fully replace Canadian canola in China.

The Australian government expects the upcoming harvest later this year to produce 5.7 million tons of canola, the least in five years, due to unfavourable weather and a smaller planted area.

Of that, Australia will likely export around 4 million tons of canola, much of which may be earmarked for longstanding customers in Europe and elsewhere, said one of the trade sources.

“China might struggle to get more than their trial volume depending on how quick they move,” the person said.

China had 159,000 tons of imported canola in its stockpiles as of July 4, the lowest level for this time of year in nearly four years, said Zhang Deqiang, an analyst at Shandong-based Sublime China Information.

 

U.S. soybean yield potential remains steady with improving condition scores

2025/26 U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 118 [112–124] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 U.S. soybean production is largely unchanged at 118 [112–124] million tons, thanks to overall favorable July weather and high crop conditions scores, though potential heatwaves expected around the end of the month warrants attention as crops move through their prime growth period. In its latest WASDE report (released on 11 July), USDA pegged U.S. soy production at 118 million tons, in line with our median projection. The latest Reuters Poll of Analysts (released on 08 July) had analysts’ own estimates for soybean production and yield on average at 4.32 billion bushels (vs. LSEG’s 4.33 billion bushels) and 52.3 bushels per acre (vs. LSEG’s 52.2 bushels per acre), respectively. Our current estimate puts planted area at 84.2 million acres, down 3.3% from last season, which is 0.8 million acres above the USDA’s June estimate of 83.4 million acres in its Acreage report (released on 30 June). The next USDA’s estimate of acreage (harvested area, as well as yield and production) will be released in its August Crop Production report, which is scheduled for 12 August.

USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (released on 14 July) put total national-level soybean blooming at 47%, slightly behind last year’s 49% but on par with the five-year average of 47%. Crop condition scores continue to indicate overwhelmingly healthy soy conditions so far, with now 70% of the crop in the good-to-excellent (GEX) category (vs. last year’s 68%), which is now at least a 5-year high. The key factor to better than expected yield potential has been favorable May/June weather – not excessively wet for sowings but beneficial enough to improve soil moisture conditions where needed. Most of the excessive wetness occurred outside of the central Soy Belt during this period (largely focused on areas to the southwest of the main Soy Belt), while long awaited above average rains benefited some of the driest areas including the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, and southern Illinois. Most of these key crop regions will likely continue to see widespread precipitation during the second half of July, supporting good yield prospects, albeit high temperatures could limit the upside. Vegetation densities from satellite imagery remain afloat, hovering around well above historical median levels across the key “I” states (i.e. Illinois, Iowa and Indiana) which were struggling up until May due to lack of moisture. Barring excessive heat risks at the end of the month and lingering low soil moisture concerns in some localized areas of the western Soy Belt, the soybean crop should be in good shape.

 

Brazil corn production slightly up despite Safrinha crop harvest delays

2024/25 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 131.2 [127.9–134.5] MILLION TONS, UP 1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Brazil corn production is increased by 1% to 131.2 [127.9–134.5] million tons reflecting near record high vegetation density levels across core Safrinha crop areas throughout the prime growing season, despite some localized second crop harvest delays that are currently ongoing. Our current position is slightly below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 132 million tons (released on 11 July) and the Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB)’s 131.97 million tons (released on 10 July). As of 12 July, Brazil’s first corn was 98.3% combined according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (released on 14 July), largely in line with last year’s 97.8% and the 5-year average of 97.7%. The second corn is 41.7% combined so far nationally, well behind last year’s 74.2% and the 5-year average of 51.1%. While the current Safrinha crop harvest pace is still lagging, the progress picked up greatly during the past week (a 14% jump from the previous week) and will likely continue to accelerate aggressively over the coming weeks given the overall warm and dry weather, relieving concerns.

 

Indonesia’s Biodiesel Consumption Reaches 48% of Target

Indonesia consumed about 7.42m kiloliters of biodiesel as of July 16, according to Eniya Listiani Dewi, director general for new and renewable energy at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry.

• NOTE: Indonesia to Set 2025 Biodiesel Allocation at 15.62M Kiloliters
• Govt is currently running some tests to increase the mandatory biodiesel mix to 50%, known as the B50 program, she says at an industry seminar on Thursday
  • Ministry will decide on the B50 formula to be used and plan for the road test
• NOTE: Currently, Indonesia requires biodiesel to contain 40% palm oil, a policy known as B40
• Govt hasn’t firmly decided to implement the B50 program in 2026, as it still needs to analyze the numbers, including the feedstock supply
  • Govt is currently seeking input from experts on the B50 plan before implementation
• Ministry says Indonesia needs five more biodiesel plants for the B50 program, with three already in development.
• In 1H, subsidized biodiesel consumption estimated at 3.5m kiloliters, according to Eddy Abdurrachman, head of the state plantation fund management agency, known as BPDP, at the same event
  • Agency may collect 30t rupiah from palm oil export levy this year and has enough fund to support the B40 program
  • Agency sees about 50,000 ha of smallholders plantation to be replanted this year

 

Indonesia June Palm Oil Exports Rise 30.5% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia’s palm oil exports rose 30.5% m/m in June, according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Palm oil exports rose to 2.588m tons from 1.983m tons in May
• Crude palm oil shipments rose to 286,882 tons from 200,061 tons in May
• RBD palm olein shipments rose to 1.147m tons from 818,077 tons in May
• RBD palm oil shipments rose to 469,916 tons from 359,757 tons in May
• Palm oil sales to European Union rose to 330,369 tons from 300,957 tons in May
• Palm oil sales to India rose to 755,752 tons from 586,611 tons in May
• Palm oil sales to China rose to 476,045 tons from 312,070 tons in May

 

India June Oilmeals Exports Fall to 313,404 Tons

India’s oilmeals exports fell to 313,404 tons in June from 315,326 tons in May, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Rapeseed meal exports rose to 184,064 tons from 134,562 tons in May
• Soymeal exports fell to 105,895 tons from 156,801 tons in May
• Castorseed meal exports rose to 19,257 tons from 18,648 tons in May

 

Corn Growers Ask Trump to Intervene on Any MAHA Pesticide Action

US corn farmers warn President Donald Trump that restrictions on widely used pesticides would put the country at risk of plummeting harvests and higher food prices.

• Growers are worried that policy recommendations expected early next month from the Make America Healthy Again Commission could restrict use of key chemicals for growing crops
• A crackdown isn’t warranted and a ban could send crop yields down by more than 70%, the National Corn Growers Association and other groups representing more than 300,000 growers across 27 states told Trump in a letter Wednesday
• Groups call on Trump to ensure the MAHA Commission doesn’t “unnecessarily jeopardize critical farming tools” in policy recommendations
• NOTE: Farm chemical companies say research shows widely used weed killers are safe
  • Initial MAHA report referred to studies raising concerns about possible ties between top herbicides glyphosate and atrazine and developmental disorders

 

US generated more renewable blending credits in June, EPA says

The U.S. generated more renewable blending credits in June than May, data from the Environmental Protection Agency showed on Wednesday.

About 1.25 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in June, compared with about 1.22 billion in May, the data showed.

Credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending rose to 629 million in June from 602 million in the prior month, according to the data.

The credits are used by oil refiners and importers to show compliance with EPA-mandated renewable blending quotas for petroleum-based fuels. They are generated with every gallon of biofuel produced.

 

Mexico Agr. Minister Meets With USDA’s Stump Over Screwworm

Mexico’s Agricultural Minister Julio Berdegue met with USDA’s Lauren Stump in person, in a move to renew cattle trade, he said in a post on X.

• There was an agreement on immediate steps to take and medium-term measure to eradicate the spread of the parasitic fly: Berdegue
• Information on cattle from Central America moving by boat to Ensenada, Mexico, is fake: Berdegue
• Berdegue said Mexican meat producer SuKarne voluntarily proposed that shipment coming shortly from Central America by boat will not enter Mexico’s Durango or any other exporter state

 

China to control dairy farm production to prop up prices, official says

China will adjust dairy farm output capacity in an “orderly manner” and control new production, an official from the agriculture ministry said on Thursday, in a bid to buoy prices and help dairy farmers turn a profit.

China has also offered guidance to some top hog breeders to reduce production, Huang Baoxu, head of the ministry’s animal husbandry and veterinary bureau, told a press conference.

 

 

 

 

 

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